Iran has launched a large-scale missile attack against Israel. In response, Israel has vowed to retaliate, escalating tensions in the region. We will discuss the situation in the Middle East with former Israeli ambassador Ma Young-sam. Ambassador, welcome.

Hello, how are you? It has been about one or two months since Iran declared its intention to retaliate. Ultimately, this missile launch has resulted in approximately 200 ballistic missiles being fired. From a scale perspective, we can consider this a significant attack, right?

Yes, that’s correct. On April 13, when Iran attacked Israel, it launched about 300 missiles and drones combined. That was also a very large-scale attack. This time, it seems they focused more on missiles because drones take a long time to reach Israel, and it's more challenging to execute. So currently, they have been using a lot of missiles, but the United States...

In terms of evaluation, it is assessed that the current situation is stronger in both quantity and quality compared to the last time. At the same time that this evaluation of being stronger than before comes out, foreign media also report that it was essentially a failed attack. What is the reason for this? Currently, Israel's missile defense system is quite robust, making it very difficult for attacks to succeed. Additionally, the U.S. has been conducting many joint operations with Israel. In reality, the damage reported in Israel this time includes a few injuries, while the casualties are actually reported from Jericho in the West Bank, which is under Palestinian control. Therefore, overall, the effectiveness of the attack is assessed to be lower than expected. Now, you mentioned that the U.S. provided assistance.

The Iron Dome, which Israel takes pride in as its air defense system, has demonstrated its effectiveness. However, I'm curious whether this is because Iran has made it easier for Israel to carry out its operations, opening up certain spaces. I personally think that the second possibility is not very high. 

Currently, Israel's multi-layered defense system has played a significant role, and while the Iron Dome has achieved many successes, it is just one part of the overall defense. The multi-layered system includes interceptors for high altitude, medium altitude, and low altitude, all of which are distinct. In fact, the Iron Dome operates at low altitudes. However, before reaching low altitudes, many interceptions have already occurred at high and medium altitudes.

Regarding the recent airstrikes, there is an emphasis on retaliation for the deaths of Hamas leader Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan. How do you see this unfolding?

There have been many situations where Iran could retaliate, so why has Iran chosen to attack in this way now? Iran is facing very serious internal issues, specifically economic problems. Currently, due to international sanctions, Iran's economy is in a very difficult state, with inflation rising over 40% annually. As a result, the public's resistance is very strong, leading them to think that they must strengthen their relations with the United States in order to resolve these issues through dialogue. Thus, they have been practicing strategic patience. 

On the other hand, at the center of this resistance is Iran itself. While Iran has been conducting proxy wars without directly engaging, there is significant damage to the leadership that is supposed to carry forward this resistance. Therefore, Iran may not simply let this opportunity pass by without taking action.

I believe we have reached a point where we cannot ignore the situation any longer. As you mentioned, Iran has its relationship with the United States, so they are in a position of strategic patience. In this context, it could be seen as an opportunity. From Israel's perspective, they have been continuously carrying out attacks against Hezbollah. There have been foreign reports stating that Hezbollah's northern front has been partially destroyed. How much do you think Hezbollah's military strength has actually weakened?

Israel's recent attacks have been quite concentrated and large-scale. During the first day of the nationwide offensive last week, they targeted and destroyed 16 objectives in just one day. They are continuing to strike more than 300 targets daily, so it is assessed that their military strength has suffered significant losses. According to American evaluations, it is believed that about half of Hezbollah's strength has already been lost.

Despite this, in my view, Hezbollah is a very powerful armed organization. Therefore, it may take some time to recover and reorganize its currently damaged weapons, but I believe it is possible. After this airstrike, Iran seems to give the impression that it does not want to escalate further, stating that if Israel does not provoke them again, they will end their retaliatory measures. However, Israel has made it clear that it will retaliate. What form do you think Israel might take in this situation? Essentially, the level of Iran's response is a critical point that will determine whether this war escalates fully. It is a very important moment. Israel may feel that it has to take this opportunity to attack Iran's strategic assets.

There is a strategic asset, which ultimately refers to the nuclear facilities and oil facilities that Iran possesses. If there were an attack on these, it could potentially escalate into a large-scale war, and preventing this is precisely the intention of the United States. Therefore, the U.S. is engaging with Iran in various ways to avoid reaching such a situation and is applying pressure from multiple fronts. 

As you mentioned, the U.S. is showing restraint, being wary of escalation, while on the other hand, as you pointed out earlier, it is also providing support to Israel. Given this, compared to the past, the U.S. seems to be less involved in Middle Eastern issues these days. It appears that the U.S. is taking on only part of the role it used to play.

Is there a possibility to view the situation from the perspective of Israel? We need to consider whether Israel has the capacity to carry out operations while thinking about the strategic position of the United States. This is something we should reassess. Currently, the United States is withdrawing its influence from the Middle East and shifting its focus towards Asia. It seems quite challenging for Israel to fully counteract this shift with its own military capabilities. 

Now, considering the upcoming presidential election in the United States, they need to manage their support for Israel carefully. How do you foresee the situation unfolding? Yes, the current dynamics in the Middle East are very closely tied to the U.S. presidential election.

However, for the Biden administration, if the conflict escalates in any way, it will be very disadvantageous for the Democratic Party. Therefore, they are trying to ensure that the war does not escalate and are continuously working towards a more peaceful resolution. The problem is that President Biden is no longer a presidential candidate, which significantly reduces his influence. The situation is being fully utilized by Israel. So we need to consider which candidate, between Harris and Trump, would be more favorable for Prime Minister Netanyahu in terms of their potential election. We should keep an eye on how Israel, which has declared retaliation, will respond. That's all for now. Thank you to former Israeli Ambassador Ma Young-sam for your insights.

Thank you. This concludes our meeting today. We will greet you again on Friday. Thank you.

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