미국 및 글로벌 주식 시장 가치 평가

### 주식 시장 밸류에이션 및 투자 전략 평가
* 💰 미국 주식시장의 밸류에이션은 역사적 기준으로 볼 때 높은 수준이며, **S&P 500 지수는 향후 12개월 동안 예상되는 미래 수익 1달러당 21달러에 거래**되고 있습니다.
* 🌍 미국을 포함한 글로벌 주식시장의 가치도 상승하여, 전 세계 GDP 100조 달러 중 **미국 주식시장의 가치는 약 50조 달러**에 달합니다.
* 📊 모든 시장이 똑같이 비싼 것은 아니며, **인도와 같은 국가는 미국보다 높은 밸류에이션**을, **영국과 독일과 같은 국가는 더 합리적인 밸류에이션**을 제공합니다.
* 🏢 소형주와 금융 및 유틸리티와 같은 특정 섹터는 **미국 시장 내에서 가치 있는 종목**을 제공합니다.
* 🕰 ️ 밸류에이션은 타이밍이 좋지 않은 신호로, **고가 시장은 단기적으로 좋은 성과**를 이어가다가 장기적으로 **실적이 저조할 가능성**이 높습니다.
* 🛡 투자자는 밸류에이션에 따라 시장 타이밍을 맞추기보다는 **자신의 위험 허용 범위와 분산 전략을 재평가**해야 합니다.
* 💼 특히 꾸준히 저축하고 투자하는 장기 투자자에게 가장 좋은 전략은 일반적으로 **"침착하게 계속 진행하는 것"**입니다.
* 🔗 시청자는 영국의 수수료 없는 투자 플랫폼인 트레이딩 212에서 제공하는 특별 혜택에 액세스하여 **최소 1파운드의 새 계좌를 만들고 인증**한 후 프로모션 코드 "romen"을 사용하면 **최대 100파운드 상당의 무료 부분 주식**을 받을 수 있습니다.

미국 주식과 글로벌 주가지수 펀드는 현재 가격이 비싸지만, 하락을 대비해 자금을 보유하는 것은 일반적으로 좋지 않은 생각입니다.

US stocks and Global stock index funds are expensive by any measure. But does this mean we should wait until a pullback in order to invest? In this video, we look at valuations at the moment and what we should do about it. Should we hoard cash, waiting for better opportunities, move our money into cheaper markets, or do nothing? This video is sponsored by Trading 212, a UK commission-free investment platform. Let's begin by looking at valuation right now. If we look at the US price-to-earnings multiple, so this is the price of the S&P 500 Index divided by the forecast profits over the next 12 months, currently it's at elevated values. We're paying about $21 for every forecast future dollar of profit over the next 12 months. If we compare that with recent history, we're above the 5-year average and we're above the 10-year average, those are the dashed green lines and the dashed blue lines you can see on the graph. Now, stocks aren't as expensive as they were

by this measure, in 2020, that was definitely a period of euphoria. But they are expensive. If we look at another measure, this is one which is favored by Warren Buffett, where we take the total value of the stock market, its market capitalization, and we divide it by the GDP of the United States. In fact, we use the GNP, which also takes into consideration profits generated by companies outside the United States. What you can see here is that in the top panel, gradually, that valuation has been creeping upwards, such that currently it's at a value of about 200%. So again, by this Buffet indicator, US Stocks look expensive. If we look at the bottom panel here, I've divided my Global GDP, and even there, you can see that the US is looking expensive. The US market, the equity Market's worth about 50 trillion Global GDP is about 100 trillion, so even that measure is looking pretty toppy. However, not all aspects of the US market and markets globally are expensive. For example, if we look at the

price-to-earnings multiple. This is the forward multiple, again, so we take the price of an index divided by the forecast 12-month profits for that index. Comparing across different countries, here you can see that only India is more expensive than the US. Indian investors are willing to pay 24 rupees for every rupee profit. But there are lots of countries at the bottom of this table where valuations look much more reasonable, notably the UK. There, the forward price-to-earnings multiple is just over 11. And of course, we've got countries where there are geopolitical problems, for example, China, which is in the middle of a trade war with the United States, which shows no sign of abating. And whoever wins the November election in the United States is not going to ease off on that trade war. Then we've got countries like Germany, which had just come out of a recession and which has seen pretty poor growth, but its equity market valuations are also depressed. So there we're looking at a 12 times forward multiple. So certainly looking across countries, we can see

places where valuations look more reasonable than in the US and India, and in some of those cases, I think there's a case to be made that you can be contrarian. You can tilt your portfolios to those regions by buying an index fund, which buys stocks in that country. And possibly that could outperform even drilling into the expensive US market. And breaking it down by the size of company. And here we're talking about market capitalization. You can see that for small caps, these are small US companies. That's the lines you can see at the bottom of this graph. So the S&P 600 is a small cap index, the S&P 500 is large caps, and S&P 400 is midcaps. For the midcap and small cap indices, notice how the valuations are much lower than they are for large caps. So instead of a 21 times multiple, we're talking about multiples of 15 times and 14 times for midcaps and small caps. So certainly the US small cap market is pretty unloved at the moment, and that hasn't always been

the case. If you look back in history, you can see examples when the difference between those three valuations was almost zero. And to see such a large dispersion between small cap and large cap valuations, you have to go all the way back to before 2000. So, another pocket of value is US small caps. Although I've held a Small Cap Fund in the US for some time now, and it's taking a very long time to recover. So, if you are contrarian, remember you also have to be patient. Breaking it down by US sector, again, it's not the case that all sectors are expensive. Certainly, Tech is expensive because the AI narrative has been pushing up valuations. So, Tech is trading at a 28 times multiple. But if we look at financials, basic materials, utilities, all of these are looking much more reasonable in terms of their valuations. Today's video is sponsored by Trading 212, a UK commission-free investment platform. And I use Trading 212. I've been using it for some time for my fund portfolio, but it's not just

about buying stocks and funds. If you're not ready to take that much risk, Trading 212 also offers a Cash ISA. As I make this video, the cash return on Trading 212 is 5.2%, but of course, it's variable, so check when you're applying for an account. The interest is paid daily. There's no minimum invested amount, and of course, you can withdraw your cash at any point in time. Furthermore, Trading 212 has launched the Trading 212 card, and that offers you 1.5% cash back on all your transactions until the 1st of October 24. And if you do use Trading 212 for shares and funds, it has lots of innovative features like pies. These are like portfolios within your portfolio where you can rebalance just at the click of a button. So if you have a particular strategy, you can make a pie. Furthermore, you can publish your Pi so other people can see it, and you can look at other people's pies for inspiration for your own portfolios. Now viewers of PensionCraft get a special offer from

Trading 212, where you can claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. All you need to do is to create and verify a new Trading 212 account, fund it with at least a pound, and then use the promo code, which is my name, Romen. Alternatively, use a link in the description below. So, it is possible to find unloved parts of the US Equity Market, either by market cap or by sector. But the key problem with holding back money from stocks when they're expensive is that valuation is not a good timing signal. Because what I'm hearing a lot at the moment, speaking to people one to one, is they say, Look, I've got this lump sum, and I don't want to invest because I think that markets will fall. And that's because they're looking so expensive and concentrated in the United States. Now, if valuation was a good timing signal, if it was the case that when stocks were expensive, you could just stay in cash and wait until they get cheaper, sure, that would be a good strategy. But is

that the case if we look at a valuation measure in the United States called the EXs Cape yield, and that's what you can see in these two graphs. On the x-axis, I've highlighted when stocks start off expensive or cheap, and then I've followed the stock market, the S&P 500, over the following decade. And then I've tracked the Returns on the S&P 500 over the next one year or 5 years. Notice how over a one-year period, expensiveness or cheapness makes almost no difference to the returns. You have to wait 5 years for expensiveness to affect stock returns. So again, if you are a value investor, you've definitely got to be patient. And the second consequence of this long time period for valuation to affect return is that it's a very poor timing signal. So let's do a little experiment with the S&P 500. Let's look at the loss you'd suffer if you held back money from the stock market. So what we're going to do is very simple. Every month, we'll

either move a dollar into the stock market, or we'll add it to our cash buffer. If stocks are expensive, we'll keep on adding to our cash. When stocks become cheap, we'll take the whole of that cash buffer and invest it in the stock market. So we'll only buy stocks if they're cheap. How are we going to measure cheap? Well, we'll use the EXs Cape yield again. So if we look at that EXs Cape yield for the United States going back to 1880, you can see the 70th percentile here. What that means is that if we're below the 70th percentile, because low excess Cape yield means stocks are expensive, if we're below that 70th percentile, then stocks are defined as being expensive. Now we have to define some threshold for cheapness or expensiveness. So I've used that 70th percentile. In fact, for this analysis, I tried every single percentile to see which would be best, but for that 70th percentile, what I've compared here is

all 30-year periods in the United States since 1880. I've compared 100% Equity strategy with the strategy when you hold back money from the stock market when it's expensive. So, the yellow line is you just keep 100% in stocks, and the blue line is the hold back strategy. Notice how most of the time the return on the yellow line is above that of the blue line, so holding back money from the stock market seldom worked. There were some periods when it worked, for example, the periods ending in the late 1950s, but it is very unusual. In fact, using any threshold for expensiveness varying from always hold back money to never hold back money never really worked. The median case was always worse in the hold back strategy. Now, this is simply a consequence of the fact that stocks generally drift upwards, so 100% Equity strategy is pretty good. Secondly, the fact that valuation is a poor timing signal. It doesn't tell you when to hold back money from the stock market. Markets can continue to be

expensive for a long period of time, while returns remain very good. But if you are feeling scared, and I'm assuming if you're watching this video you are feeling scared, then perhaps what you should be thinking is maybe I should re-evaluate my attitude to risk. Because if you're always scared about Equity markets pulling back, then you'll always be scared. There's always a compelling reason why stocks are going to suffer a crash. You can just look at the stats of all the YouTube videos where people are always warning about these crashes. But if that is something that really worries you, then perhaps you should have less risk in your portfolio. And that means instead of investing in things which are risky like alternative assets or perhaps stocks, you have things which are less risky but also give you a lower return. That's the sacrifice you'll make. So if you're really cautious, you'd go for money market funds. And if you're willing to take slightly more risk, you'd go for bond funds. They tend to give you a slightly higher return for taking

duration risk. But if you're living in perpetual fear of a crash, then certainly diversification should be on your checklist for your future portfolio reviews. And the time to review your attitude to risk is not to put out the fire once it's already started. Once equity markets have fallen and maybe you sold and panicked during a crash, the time to sort out your attitude to risk is before that happens, because you can guarantee there will be a pullback at some point. So just make sure that you're comfortable with that possibility and drisk your portfolio such that if there was a pullback, you wouldn't suffer such a large fall. You've got the additional benefit that you'd also have dry powder, such that you could invest back into stocks if there is a tumble. So in conclusion then, I'd say the most important thing is to find a portfolio and a level of risk that you're happy with long term. Holding back money from the equity market because valuations are high is generally a bad idea, but it's

never the case that everything is expensive at once, so you could tilt towards things which are cheaper. Personally, I do this in my fund portfolio, not my core portfolio. I just stay 100% allocated to equity in that. But as I always say, don't copy what I do because your attitude to risk will not be the same as mine. So I think the best strategy is usually simply to keep calm and carry on. If you are saving as you earn, then carry on doing that whether there's a crisis or not. If you do have a large amount of money to invest, will maybe drip feed it if you're worried about a crash. But holding back money from the equity market because we can't time markets is usually a bad idea. Now don't forget to get our offer from Trading 212. Pensioncraft viewers get a special offer where you can claim free fractional shares worth up to $100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 account, make a minimum deposit of $1, and use the promo code romen, my first name.

the link in the description below. And as always, thank you for listening.

Invest Now Or Wait For A Stock Market Crash?

My name is Ramin Nakisa and I started PensionCraft in 2016 as I felt strongly that I wanted to teach people how to invest well for themselves so they could stop making costly mistakes and losing their money through having to pay unnecessarily high fees.

Before starting PensionCraft, I worked in investment banking as a strategist and I was a frequent contributor on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. I have written two books about finance and investment: one for professional investors and one that explains how to buy and sell volatility using exchange-traded products.

I publish a new video on YouTube every Saturday and you can join me for a live Q&A on the 1st Thursday of every month at 7pm UK time.

If you want to learn how to become a better investor then why not join our friendly membership at pensioncraft.com?


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고가의 미국 주식 및 글로벌 주가지수 펀드 평가하기

현재 미국 주식은 주가수익배수와 버핏 지표를 기준으로 볼 때 고평가되어 있지만 글로벌 시장의 밸류에이션은 더 혼조세를 보이고 있습니다.

인도와 같은 일부 국가는 미국보다 밸류에이션이 더 높은 반면, 영국과 독일은 합리적인 밸류에이션 수준을 보이고 있습니다.

미중 무역전쟁과 다가오는 미국 대선도 현재 시장 평가에서 고려해야 할 요소입니다.

영국의 수수료 없는 투자 플랫폼인 Trading 212가 이 동영상을 후원합니다.

다양한 지역 및 시가총액에 대한 반대매매 투자 기회

미국과 인도보다 밸류에이션이 더 합리적인 지역에 인덱스 펀드를 매수하여 역발상 투자할 수 있는 기회가 있습니다.

미국 중소형주는 대형주에 비해 밸류에이션이 훨씬 낮기 때문에 잠재적 투자처가 될 수 있습니다.

미국의 경우 기술 섹터는 고가이지만 금융 및 기초소재와 같은 다른 섹터는 더 합리적인 밸류에이션을 제공하므로 투자자에게 기회를 제공합니다.

트레이딩 212로 무료 소수점 주식 신청하기

트레이딩 212는 프로모션 코드 "로멘" 또는 지정된 링크를 사용하여 최소 1파운드 이상 입금한 신규 계좌에 대해 최대 100파운드까지 무료 소수점 주식을 제공합니다.

밸류에이션은 5년 동안만 수익률에 큰 영향을 미치기 때문에 주식 투자에서 신뢰할 수 있는 타이밍 신호가 아니며 단기 지표로는 좋지 않습니다.

S&P 500을 대상으로 한 실험에 따르면 밸류에이션을 기준으로 시장 타이밍을 맞추려고 하면 큰 손실을 볼 수 있습니다.

주식 시장에서의 자금 보유의 비효율성

과거 데이터를 보면 알 수 있듯이 주식 시장의 고평가를 이유로 자금을 보유하는 것은 거의 효과적이지 않았습니다.

밸류에이션은 잘못된 타이밍 신호이며, 시장 상황은 오랫동안 좋은 수익률과 함께 비싼 상태로 유지될 수 있습니다.

시장 타이밍을 맞추려고 노력하는 대신 위험에 대한 태도를 재평가하고 위험도가 낮은 자산으로 분산 투자하여 장기적으로 편안한 포트폴리오를 유지하는 것을 고려하는 것이 좋습니다.

투자 포트폴리오 관리를 위한 팁

더 저렴한 옵션과 더 비싼 옵션을 모두 포함하도록 포트폴리오를 다양화하여 비용의 균형을 맞추세요.

차분하고 일관된 투자 전략을 유지하는 동시에 위험에 대한 자신의 태도를 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.

시장에 시간을 맞추려고 하지 말고, 특히 주식 시장에서 꾸준히 저축하고 투자하는 데 집중하세요.