반도체 투자 심리와 시장 변동성

### 시장 변동성 탐색하기 투자 전략 및 경제 지표에 대한 인사이트
* 📈 투자자는 시장 성과가 단 한 번의 세션으로 결정되는 것이 아니라 **며칠 또는 몇 달을 넘어 장기적인 관점을 유지**하는 것이 중요하다는 점을 기억해야 합니다.
* 🤖 현재 반도체를 둘러싼 불안감과 높은 수요는 기업들이 AI에 계속 투자할지에 대한 우려를 부각시키고 있지만, 이러한 우려는 **지속적인 생산성 향상**이라는 현실을 반영하지 못할 수도 있습니다.
* 💡 다양한 섹터에 투자하면 특히 **기술주가 변동성에 직면할 때 변동성과 관련된 리스크를 완화**할 수 있으므로 분산 투자가 중요합니다.
* 💵 경제가 연착륙하고 연준이 금리 인하를 시작하면 **위험자산에 우호적인 환경**이 조성되어 **기술주뿐 아니라 경기 순환주, 소형주**에도 도움이 될 수 있습니다.
* 🔍 다양한 산업 분야의 많은 기업이 AI의 발전을 통해 이익을 얻을 수 있으며, **몇몇 거대 기술 기업을 넘어서는 기회**를 모색하는 것이 중요하다는 점을 강조합니다.
* 📊 다가오는 일자리 보고서가 중요한데, **비농업 고용이 약 5160 증가**할 것으로 예상되어 연준이 9월 금리 인하 계획을 변경하지 않고 만족할 수 있을 것으로 보입니다.
* 📉 연준이 정책 기조를 유지하려는 상황에서 **50bp 인하 가능성**은 경기 약세를 의미할 수 있으며, 이는 안정보다는 **시장 변동성 확대**로 이어질 수 있습니다.
* 🌪 전반적으로 연준의 조치, 경제 지표, 대선과 같은 외부 요인의 조합으로 인해 불확실한 환경이 조성되어 **시장 반응이 높아질 수 있습니다.**

투자자는 현재의 시장 변동성과 잠재적인 경제 변화에 대응하기 위해 장기적인 전략과 다각화를 수용해야 합니다.

We are learning every week, every month, every year that one single session a market does not make. But where do you go? The anxiety in semiconductors, high demand. We had economic data in 24 hours time. That is very important. And we always thinking about the Fed. When you wake up, Christina, with a technology investor's perspective, what do you first think of? First of all, I think it's important for investors to recognize that they have a longer time horizon than one day or one month or even several months. And so it's important not to be too reactive to understand that valuations are relatively high. And so when stocks are priced near perfection, we're likely to see jitters, we're likely to see concerns. And I think one of the overarching concerns we're seeing right now is this fear that it can't continue, that we won't see companies continue to spend,

to invest in AI. And I think that that's probably more a fear than a reality because what we're seeing is that investment in productivity-enhancing areas has actually improved productivity growth. And so this is something that companies recognize, and I truly believe the risk of not investing is greater than the risk of investing, but that might not calm investors today. So diversification certainly helps. But I think just understanding we're likely to see volatility, but that doesn't mean we won't see significant gains over the course of a year, two years, and even longer. Nvidia back in the red once again and has raised a lot of its market capitalization. Christina, there has been an anxiety that we've just put too much into too few companies. When you say diversify what, into other tech names or just other types of companies, other types of companies, let's face it that if all goes well, if the thesis for a soft landing holds and

We see the Fed start to cut rates. That could create a very supportive environment for risk assets in general. That doesn't mean that tech will outperform, but it's probably going to keep up or follow closely behind cyclicals, smaller caps, those areas that are more sensitive to the economy. So this could be a very positive environment, and I think one that investors will appreciate, even if we see some spasms, some fits of fear and lack of confidence along the way. Christina, you talked about sort of gyrations a moment ago, weeks, months, years, and in the context of NVIDIA, for example, a lot of the investors we had in the show after earnings were long-term investors who say we accept the short-term volatility, but we're holding because we understand the datacenter buildout that's happening. Is it important to be diversified though, even if you take that mindset? So I think it's critical to recognize that there are many, many

companies that will benefit from AI. So if you're feeling very confident about the AI story, that's going to help companies in a variety of different sectors and industries. And in fact, we've heard on earnings calls in the last quarter that companies have been using AI already and seeing some really significant results in terms of their sales. And so I think it's perhaps taking that theme and looking to those other sectors and industries, especially service areas of the economy, to find opportunities. There can be a significant diversification by just doing that. Christina, how important is tomorrow's jobs report? I'm sorry. How important is Friday's jobs report? So Friday's jobs report, I think what we're likely to see is job gains, nonfarm payrolls around one 5160 in line with expectations. And that's appropriate given where we are in the cycle. I think the Fed will be satisfied with

that. I mean, it certainly said it doesn't want to see any significant deterioration in jobs from here. I don't think we'd see that. And that's pretty much a pre-pandemic trend level is to get about 151 6170. I don't think there's anything that will come out of Friday's jobs report that changes the Fed's decision in September. I think we're going to get a 25 basis point rate cut. I think if we get a weak jobs report, that will not change that. I don't think we're going to get a 50 basis point cut. That's because the Fed really does believe that it is doing the right thing. It's on course. A 50 basis point cut would be an admission of guilt, in my opinion. Even when it was behind the curve in March of 2022, it only hiked rates 25 basis points.

So that's how I think this is going to play out, and that should be positive for markets. If we got a 50 basis point cut, we might actually see more volatility and some kind of sell-off because it suggests there's more weakness in the economy than many thought. Deja vu now versus the beginning of August. Are we going to get these bouts of volatility as aggressive as we're suddenly seeing? I suspect we will. There's a lot happening right now. We not just have the Fed meeting, but we have a presidential election. We have a lot of other central banks cutting at the same time. I think that creates an environment where there's concern, where there's uncertainty. We also have this dueling concern among investors where they're looking to rate cuts and the opportunities presented by them. But they're also still worried. There's this nagging concern that we could still go into recession. And so I think that all comes together in terms of outsized reactions to

Invesco's Hooper: Valuations Relatively High

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시장 변동성 탐색하기: 기술 투자자의 관점

투자자는 장기적인 관점을 유지하고 단기적인 시장 변화에 지나치게 반응하지 않아야 합니다.

높은 주식 밸류에이션은 시장의 불안과 AI에 대한 기업의 지속적인 투자에 대한 우려로 이어질 수 있습니다.

위험을 완화하고 잠재적인 시장 변동성을 헤쳐 나가기 위해서는 다양한 유형의 기업에 분산 투자하는 것이 중요합니다.

연준 금리 인하가 위험 자산에 미치는 영향

연준의 금리 인하는 위험 자산에 우호적인 환경을 조성하여 기술주, 경기 순환주, 소형주에게 잠재적으로 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

NVIDIA와 같은 기업의 장기 투자자들은 유망한 AI 기반 데이터센터 구축으로 인해 단기 변동성을 기꺼이 감수할 수 있습니다.

AI의 혜택을 받을 수 있는 분야와 산업으로 다각화하면 상당한 기회를 제공하고 위험을 완화할 수 있습니다.

연준의 금리 인하 결정과 시장 영향

연준은 고용지표가 크게 악화되지 않을 것으로 보고 고용지표와 관계없이 9월에 25bp 금리 인하를 단행할 것으로 예상됩니다.

50bp 인하는 경기 약세를 시사하고 시장 변동성을 확대할 수 있기 때문에 가능성은 낮다고 판단됩니다.

현재 환경은 동시다발적인 중앙은행의 금리 인하와 잠재적 경기 침체에 대한 우려로 불확실성이 커져 시장의 반응이 크게 나타나고 있습니다.

경제 데이터 발표는 한 국가의 재정 건전성과 동향에 대한 중요한 인사이트를 제공합니다.

이러한 보고서에는 종종 GDP, 실업률, 인플레이션과 같은 주요 지표가 포함됩니다.

투자자와 정책 입안자들은 정보에 입각한 결정과 예측을 내리기 위해 이러한 발표를 면밀히 모니터링합니다.