2024년 부동산 시장 전망: 전망과 과제

2024년에는 임대료 상승, 불확실한 정책, 긍정적인 경제 회복 전망으로 인해 부동산 시장이 양극화될 것으로 예상합니다.

### 토스트의 2024년 부동산 시장 전망과 투자 전략
* 🏠 부동산 시장은 **월세 및 전세 가격의 지속적인 상승, 공급 위주의 정책과 금리 전망의 불투명성**으로 인한 불확실성 등으로 양극화될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📈 하반기 경기 회복에 대한 기대감이 점차 높아지고 있는 가운데, **수요 중심의 변화에 초점**을 맞춰 현명하게 대처하는 것이 관건입니다.
* 🌍 전반적인 물가 안정과 경기 침체 방지를 위해 **금리는 점진적으로 인하**될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🇺🇸 미국 기준으로는 **약 2.8%의 금리**가 예상되며, 한국의 경제 성장률은 **약 2.8%~3%**로 전망됩니다.
* 🏗 재건축 시장의 경쟁과 비용 증가로 인해 **공급 시장이 더욱 어려워지고 있습니다.**
* 💰 통화 가치 하락이 지속될 것으로 예상되며 **주식 및 자산 시장에 대한 투자가 더욱 활발**해질 수 있습니다.
* 🐍 "뱀의 머리"가 이미 최고가를 돌파했으므로 **"뱀의 몸통"에 해당하는 다음 후속 부동산**을 매수하는 것이 좋습니다.
* 📈 전 세계에서 일어나는 대규모 변화를 고려하여 시장에 대한 긍정적인 시각을 갖고 **자신의 신념에 따라 투자**하는 것이 좋습니다.

Hello, this is Thost. Today, I have prepared Thost's special. I would like to take a look at how the real estate market will be in 2024. It's already halfway through 2024, with half of the year left. If you have a more positive outlook and invest wisely, how about that? If I only talk about investing in your own home, what should non-homeowners do? What should first-time homebuyers do? Let's discuss together what investors should do. Let's go. In the first half of the year, Thost wanted to convey a message to all of you. The market will be polarized, and there will be continuous increases in monthly rent and lease prices. Real estate policies will not show a clear direction in terms of supply measures. Although there are expectations for interest rates, uncertainty will persist, leading to a strong and stable market. And domestic consumption is stagnant.

As we move into the second half of the year, expectations for economic recovery are gradually increasing. Therefore, when we consider these phenomena as a whole, the key point is a smart move. With a focus on demand-driven switching, there will likely be quite a few changes. Therefore, we need to pay attention to this market. Even in the northern part, the key leading apartments have already broken through the highest prices. It's a reality that they are selling for much higher prices than before. In the first half of the year, some areas have already recovered to this extent, and there are also areas where the peak is coming. In this situation, the key point is how the downward trend will be. Ultimately, the point is interest rates. In the end, what starts these interest rates is the global real estate market. The same goes for the domestic market. Ultimately, rather than stimulating buyers' desire to buy, if interest rate pivots become clear, there may be a need to sell properties urgently at low prices, thinking, Do we need to sell things quickly at a low price? This phenomenon leads to the sale of properties.

It would be appropriate to lower interest rates by about one step to prevent a recession in each country in order to stabilize overall prices and prevent a downturn in the export industry. Currently, the situation is that although prices that had risen due to supply constraints are mostly under control, consumption has not declined. Global consumption needs to decline to lower prices, which would indicate an economic downturn. If interest rates rise sharply and the value of the currency falls abruptly at this point, it could lead to a drop in housing prices.

The SMP 500 is falling, and stocks are also collapsing in an asset market where everything is falling apart. In such a scenario, it is good to gradually decline in a stable manner without panicking about the downside. Accordingly, it is thought that maintaining a stable state by gradually lowering interest rates by one or two steps is a good economic policy. Perhaps from the perspective of the FOMC, they may be expecting one or two interest rate hikes this year due to the rise and fall in oil prices caused by the oil war. In the United States, shale oil production has somewhat stabilized, so it is expected to remain in the range of $70 to $80 for a while. This is likely to help maintain the appropriate level of inflation. The pivot on interest rates seems to have only happened in Europe.

In the United States, it would be good to consider predicting interest rate hikes once or twice in the second half of the year. It is said that it takes about 10 to 15 years for a cycle to make human life richer, stimulate industry, activate the economy, bring about economic prosperity, and there is still about 15 to 10 years left in such a cycle. It is a bit difficult to talk about an economic recession because of this upcoming cycle. Therefore, in the second half of the year, if each country lowers interest rates by just one step to really boost domestic demand, next year's economic growth rate and GDP growth rate are likely to become more stable. If inflation can achieve a certain level of stability, it will also help stabilize the interest rate level. So, in my opinion based on the U.S. standard, around 2.8% or so for interest rates, and around 2.5% or so for South Korea. The economic growth rate for South Korea would be around 2.8% to 3%.

Instead of dreaming stories, if we look at the second half of the year in Korea, ultimately, the country seems to have a favorable situation in leading industries. The semiconductor industry seems to be doing well, as well as the automobile industry. Overall, the shipbuilding industry and the entire machinery industry in Korea's export industry seem promising. Therefore, the export market is expected to strengthen in the second half of this year, leading to a ripple effect, ultimately resulting in increased hiring of new employees. As time goes by, this will lead to an increase in domestic consumption, which will in turn bring prosperity to the grassroots economy. As domestic industries continue to grow and export performance improves in the long run, a virtuous cycle of prosperity will return, transitioning from an abnormal state to normalcy. As the economic warmth spreads across various industries, it is possible to reach a golden age starting in the second half of 2024 and continuing into 2025 and 2026.

I'm thinking it won't happen. It's not that housing prices will skyrocket just because of this. There isn't much reason for them to fall, so I think this way. I have been talking about a strong balanced market for a year now, focusing on demand. I expect this trend to continue in the future. Besides the macroeconomic and economic environment, there are characteristics of the domestic housing market. There are policies and other aspects like the supply policy. So, if we summarize the issues of the domestic housing market that were on the upside, I said that some systems that were thought to be abolished should not be abolished. For example, the pre-subscription system was abolished. We need to think about the meaning of this abolition. As promised, the impossibility of supply was brought about. Sanggye New Town is closer to us than you think.

You need to recognize that this is a very distant story, so you can be a real estate expert. Then, according to that, how did the jeonse go? What results come out if you don't buy a house? For example, you need to find a jeonse. So, what should you do if you don't buy a house? You should choose to rent. Then, what happens if the rental demand increases? In the end, housing prices will be stiffened downward, and jeonse prices will continue to rise. I keep emphasizing this point, and so far, for the general public and ordinary people, the current price is not an amount that resonates in their hearts, so it is expected to fall further. Therefore, I think this trend will continue. I expect jeonse and monthly rent to rise, which will further stiffen the downward trend in apartment prices. When you see these aspects, you may lean more towards renting instead of choosing jeonse.

As these aspects become more serious, eventually, it will lead to a shift to buying because there is a fever and speculation in interest rates. And when the economy starts to grow slowly, housing prices will rise. Thinking like this, I recommend boldly investing in real estate. Also, I recommend speaking out. Well, the reconstruction market, there are safe margin reconstruction markets, and these things show tremendous competition. Hot issues like YouTube and ourselves, safety rings, when you just mention them, the views skyrocket, like tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. Money seems to be what people want to earn. Yes, so these sites have very high competition rates. Private sales are the same, garden-side sales are the same, and if the reconstruction system is not applied, they sell at high prices. Then, they all remain unsold. But why not sell them at a price that doesn't remain unsold? Right?

I can say this, but if you develop below that, there is no profit. Yes, it means there is no profitability. Therefore, construction companies are not profitable, so they do not even bid, which results in a decrease in supply. So, considering the already increased prices and labor costs, the future supply market could be much more challenging. It used to be very cheap, right? Yes, that was six or seven years ago when the approval of the members' association and the management disposal took place. At that time, there were no issues like redevelopment, expropriation, or delinquent taxpayers, so issues like property tax were not taken as seriously as they are now. In the current situation, even if there is redevelopment, the residents are not happy because the fees are too high.

These are the parts where the reduction of supply takes place, which should be considered. Overall, the supply is difficult, the car market is safe. My generation is a bit expensive, so it's difficult to supply more. The market for redevelopment is difficult, and any approval for construction is difficult. Looking at the fact that there are no more subscription applications for new cities, it seems like crossing a bridge. Now the supply is over. So, let's talk about the characteristics of the housing market. There is no supply. Okay, acknowledged. Interest rates have dropped. Europe has started to lower interest rates, and it seems that the U.S. will maintain the pivot, and it seems that Korea will lower interest rates once this year, and again one or two or three times next year. Also, looking at the market situation, due to the growth of the fourth industrial revolution, new industries are emerging, creating new jobs and new income.

A new economic boom is on the horizon, and as these effects trickle down, the timing for the activation of domestic economies in each country seems to be next year or the year after. Okay, the economy is fine, interest rates are low, but the supply is lacking. The direction of the asset market based on the economy has already taken an upward trend, albeit at a different timing. Of course, the SM has increased five times, Korean real estate prices seem quite high, and the stock market investors in the KOSPI are a bit nervous. Yes, they may not have much power, but in the end, they have taken their place by moving to the right. Therefore, it seems that the upward trend in this asset market will not be broken. To trigger a real estate crash here, there are some prerequisites. The U.S. economy must completely collapse, causing the NASDAQ and big tech companies to collapse, and the Korean KOSPI to drop below 2,200 points.

As the curtain comes down, this kind of situation should happen, but do you see the economy for the second half of this year and next year like that? Are you looking at companies' profit multiples like that? No, right? It's obvious that the export industry in South Korea will be better in the second half than in the first half. It seems like it will be even better next year. However, we cannot talk about a real estate crash. So, just like the growth of the KOSPI and global asset markets, in line with the rebound and recovery of housing prices in Europe, the United States, Japan, and China, the housing prices in South Korea will show a strong and stable market. And the KOSPI will fight a bit. As for the S&P 500, I feel a bit burdened. So, instead, I think there might be opportunities in real estate or the KOSPI in the second half. Well, let's talk about marriage. In the end, if interest rates cannot be cut in the second half due to the trend, if interest rates cause the economy to deteriorate and collapse,

The asset market is said to be collapsing, but if it starts to come down through proper adjustments, the downward trend in interest rates will not change. Meanwhile, the depreciation of currency value continues. I hope there will be no one who suffers from the rise in electricity prices. Therefore, as we go into the second half of this year and into next year, the depreciation of currency will become steeper. And if the burden of loan interest decreases by the end of this year or exceeds into next year, it will start to decrease, which will have an effect of reducing the supply in the real estate market. Also, in the stock and asset markets, investment may become more active. Therefore, considering these factors, the overall direction of the market in the second half does not seem bad. This is how you should see it, and the key now is the recovery of trading volume. In markets like the real estate market now, the demand from actual buyers and non-homeowners looking to buy a house, as well as the demand for switching homes, are showing signs of recovery. This could deepen further as we move into the second half. The trigger might be around Chuseok, right? So,

Around September or October, when the trading volume increases more than expected, it will be a time when the bid prices rise. This year, there might be an increase in rent due to Chuseok, and the stories about the lack of supply will become more severe as time goes by. Nevertheless, despite that, the President and the National Assembly will continuously engage in a tug-of-war between the administration and the legislature, pointing out what was done well and what was done wrong. They will argue back and forth, which will lead to abandoning real estate policies and of course, a shortage of supply. However, I am a bit concerned about the stagnation and uncertainty in domestic economy. For the sake of aspects like people's economy, the Governor of the Bank of Korea may boldly consider lowering the interest rate in the latter half of the year, maybe once or twice. Therefore, the premise that a rate cut of around 0.25% to 0.5% is necessary will be established. If that happens, it will help sustain the domestic economy while boosting exports and industrial growth.

If the real estate market continues to be strong, I don't think the asset market or the stock market, including the KOSPI, will show a bad appearance. Everyone thinks that way. They want to buy cheaper and keep falling until they buy. It's natural to have such thoughts. However, there are parts where you need to judge the market a bit more objectively and rationally. Therefore, when you review the market direction for this year and anticipate the market direction for the second half of the year, it seems that it is becoming a bit difficult to buy cheaper now. Already half of the year has passed, and it's June. As we enter July and August, it's vacation season. Maybe after the July and August vacation season, the real estate market will show a stronger appearance. I hope everyone succeeds in stock investments, real estate investments, and everything else they strive for and become wealthy until the end. It's already halfway through 2024, and the second half is approaching. Please look at the market more positively in the second half of the year, in 2025, 2026, and in this era of industrial revolution.

View the cycle a bit more positively, rather than having a too negative attitude towards the asset market critics and the housing market critics. Try to have a more positive perspective, and if you invest according to your own beliefs, it might be better. If I only talk about investing in housing that suits you, don't insist too much if you are a non-homeowner. What should non-homeowners do? Look for your financial planning that suits you, find your financial capacity, and I recommend purchasing a suitable house. When you purchase, since the head of the snake has already broken through the ceiling, instead of the snake's head, I recommend buying the next follow-up house, which corresponds to the snake's body. And for those who own only one house, what should they do? If you have the financial flexibility, what should you do? Switch. If you switch, should you move to a higher-ranking area or what should you do? Consider the balanced level.

Please widen your perspective. Large-scale changes are coming to the world. You probably already know this, especially if you own multiple houses. It's sad, but the sensitivity to the economy and the market is much higher for non-homeowners than for homeowners. Therefore, those of you who own multiple homes probably already know what to do. For income-oriented real estate investors, it must be tough. Yes, it will be tough. The effect will eventually be felt in the domestic economy, so there's not much time left. Endure a bit of pain for about 1 to 2 years, and I believe better days will come. Have a positive mindset until you all become wealthy. I will be with you until that day. Thank you all. Have you found today's video helpful? Subscribing and liking the video will be a great support.

Let's be together for a long, long time. [MUSIC]

금리 인하의 시작과 부동산 상승 시나리오 2024년 하반기 예측

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똘스의 뇌피셜 경제

2024년 하반기 부동산 시장 전망

2024년 부동산 시장은 전세와 월세 가격이 지속적으로 상승하는 양극화 현상이 나타나고 있습니다.

부동산 정책과 금리의 불확실성은 하반기 경기 회복에 대한 기대감과 함께 강세와 안정세를 보이고 있습니다.

글로벌 부동산 시장과 국내 소비는 주택 가격의 잠재적 하락 또는 안정에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인이며, 점진적인 금리 인하는 우호적인 경제 정책으로 여겨지고 있습니다.

미국과 한국의 금리 및 경제 성장률 예측

미국은 하반기에 한두 차례 금리 인상이 예상되며, 예상 금리는 2.

하반기에는 반도체, 자동차, 조선, 기계 등 한국의 주요 산업에 우호적인 상황이 예상되며, 이는 고용과 내수 소비 증가로 이어질 것으로 전망됩니다.

또한 주택 시장은 정책과 공급 요인들이 국내 주택 시장에 긍정적인 영향을 미치며 균형 잡힌 모습을 유지할 것으로 예상했습니다.

주택 동향이 부동산 투자에 미치는 영향

주택 수요가 증가하면서 전셋값이 계속 상승할 것으로 예상되어 아파트 가격이 더 하락할 가능성이 있습니다.

경쟁이 치열한 부동산 시장과 높은 건설 비용으로 인해 공급이 감소하고 있어 향후 시장은 더욱 어려워지고 있습니다.

재개발, 높은 임대료 등 현재 주택 문제로 인해 주민들의 불만이 커지면서 부동산 시장에도 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

타이트한 주택 공급과 향후 시장 동향

주택 시장은 공급 부족으로 수요를 충족하기 어려운 상황에 직면해 있습니다.

긍정적인 경제 전망과 저금리 기조에도 불구하고 가까운 시일 내에 부동산 폭락 가능성은 낮습니다.

하반기에도 부동산과 주식 시장에 대한 투자 기회와 함께 시장은 강세와 안정을 유지할 것으로 예상됩니다.

통화 가치 하락이 지속되어 더 가파르게 하락할 가능성이 있으며, 이자율이 하락하여 부동산 시장의 공급에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

하반기에는 주택 수요가 증가하여 9월 또는 10월경에는 입찰 가격이 상승하여 임대료에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.

대통령과 국회의 갈등이 지속되면서 부동산 공급이 부족할 수 있고, 경기 침체와 불확실성에 대한 우려가 있어 국내 경제와 산업 성장을 유지하기 위해 금리 인하 가능성이 있습니다.

변화하는 시장에서 부동산 투자를 위한 긍정적인 전략

자신의 신념과 재정 능력에 따라 자신에게 맞는 주택에 초점을 맞춰 투자하는 것이 중요합니다.

무주택자는 적합한 주택 옵션을 찾는 데 우선순위를 두고 자신의 재정 상황에 맞는 부동산을 구입하는 것을 고려해야 합니다.

현재 주택 소유자의 경우, 재정적 유연성이 있다면 변화하는 시장을 고려해 균형 잡힌 수준을 목표로 다른 주택으로의 전환을 고려할 수 있습니다.

특히 소득 창출에 중점을 둔 부동산 투자자에게는 더 나은 날이 올 것이라는 믿음을 가지고 1~2년 동안의 어려움을 견디는 것이 좋습니다.