미국 경제와 실버 세대가 시장에 미치는 영향

미국 경제의 상대적 강세는 주로 주식에 투자한 은퇴한 실버 세대의 자산에 기인합니다.

### 미국 경제의 '완벽한 연착륙'과 시장 전망에 영향을 미치는 요인들
* 📈 미국 경제는 예상보다 금리 조정 시기와 경로가 지연되는 등 **비교적 안정적인 국면**을 경험하고 있습니다.
* 🏦 역사적으로 미국 경제는 **금리에 민감**했지만 2008년 글로벌 금융위기와 팬데믹 이후 **금리에 덜 민감한 구조**로 전환하고 있습니다.
* 👴 상당한 양의 주식을 보유하고 있는 미국 실버 세대의 부는 **미국 경제의 상대적 강세의 핵심 요인**으로 꼽힙니다.
* 🌍 미국과 유럽의 경제 구조의 차이로 인해 **은퇴자들의 다양한 자산과 보험 요구 사항**이 나타나고 있습니다.
* 🤖 AI 관련 요소는 투자 동향에 영향을 미칠 뿐만 아니라 각국의 생산성에도 기여하고 있어 **미국이 전반적으로 유리한 위치**를 점하고 있습니다.
* 🇨🇳 부동산 시장에 대한 정부 개입 정책을 시행하고 있는 중국 경제에 대해 **중립적인 입장**을 취하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🇰🇷 한국 시장의 경우 **반도체 부문을 중심**으로 수출 모멘텀이 둔화될 수 있어 **내수 시장에서 기회**를 찾아야 할 것으로 보입니다.
* 🇺🇸 다가오는 미국 대통령 선거로 **트럼프 2기 행정부의 정책 불확실성이 줄어들 것**으로 예상되며, 글로벌 관세 정국으로 인해 **환율 리스크가 부각**되고 있습니다.

In comparison to Europe, what makes the U.S. economy relatively good now is that the Silver Generation in the U.S. has a lot of money. When you look at the assets of the Silver Generation who have already retired, they mostly have a lot of stocks. Normally, when the economy is good, the stock market is good. Or when the economy is too bad, interest rates are cut to boost expectations for a better economy, which makes the stock market good. In a way, it seems like you should look at the U.S. market in reverse now. Since the stock market is good, it could lead to a good economy. Almost all countries are aging now, and the number of retirees is increasing. The difference in wealth after retirement for retirees, whether they need insurance or even if they can delay it a bit, seems to be causing some differences in the economic structures between the U.S. and Europe.

We will now have a conversation in the studio with Mr. Huh Sang-moo from the Research Center of Eugene Investment. Welcome. Hello, Mr. Ahn-sa. In the second half of the year, you have released another macro outlook report, right? Yes, it's a report that spans 70 pages. I don't think everyone can read all 70 pages in one day, so we will upload it to our database for your reference. I hope you take a look. Now, let's briefly discuss the macro outlook for the second half. Before that, FOMC seems to be the most crucial issue in the market this week. What points should we focus on? Overall, the likelihood of an interest rate hike has increased significantly, so the market may be less sensitive to that aspect. Perhaps we can discuss the hawkish signals that have emerged on the chart.

The key point seems to be how much the Fed Chairman can appease investors. However, recently, when we listen to the Fed's stance, it seems like Chairman Powell is leaning a bit towards the style of Mr. Dobby, and the members who keep trying to uplift the market seem a bit uncertain and cautious. In the meantime, there seems to be a bit of tension. Therefore, on the same day, in the U.S., the consumer price index will also be announced. Together with that, it seems like there will be somewhat strong comments on how much Chairman Powell will uplift the market or be able to uplift it. Especially since it is November now, with the upcoming election, I think they might speak in a neutral and theoretical manner. This FOMC meeting is drawing a lot of interest, but in reality, there are no significant events or turning points in the market.

Rather than playing a role, I am just hoping for the market to pass by calmly. If we look at the March dot plot, it seems that the mid-term interest rate will decrease to around 4.3% by the end of the year. Considering a decrease of 0.25% at a time, it seems like it will be lowered about three times. So, there is a possibility that it may decrease only once or twice this time, right? How about you, sir? Currently, there are not many FOMC meetings left. In between, we need to check through inflation and employment indicators. Given the time lag, it may not be that easy to lower the rate twice. The market is anticipating until September and even until November. How do you see it, sir?

Hello, I am thinking a bit because it's November, and the reason is, if you want to raise interest rates in September, there are only about three opportunities from now. However, out of those three times, employment and inflation indicators are expected to fall short. Also, there is a presidential election right before the third time. So, statistically speaking, although the U.S. job market may decline after three times, it doesn't mean that all the Federal Reserve Board members will be reassured. However, by November, around October or September, the U.S. economy is still slowing down, and prices are also falling by 2%. Investors and Federal Reserve Board members may gain some confidence by then. I understand. Let's first take a look at the key points to watch before the FOMC meeting, and now let's move on to discussing the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year in the macro front report. Title

Dreaming of a perfect landing is to aspire to a perfect landing in itself. I was curious about what that means. I wrote it in the opposite way because, in fact, after a long time, whether it's a soft landing or a hard landing, then the Fed will raise interest rates or lower them, they will do it three times, two times, back and forth, back and forth. There was quite a market volatility, but ultimately, as the economic slowdown in the United States is happening more slowly than expected, it feels like we are almost achieving a perfect landing. However, precisely because the landing is too perfect right now, it conveys the meaning that there is a lack of fun in the market due to being relatively too perfect, especially after the United States in terms of any upside in other markets. So, I tried to express the concept of a perfect landing with a bit of a sense of boredom. Is being too perfect the right state to be in now?

Compared to what we had in mind, the timing or the path of interest rate cuts or any slowdown in the U.S. economy is continuously being delayed. Therefore, it seems that the U.S. economy itself can be relatively considered somewhat stable. Especially, one of the key points I would like to mention through this material is that historically, the U.S. economy has adjusted its economic cycle through interest rates. When the economy is weak, interest rates are lowered, and when the economy is overheating, interest rates are raised, maintaining a certain level of stability in the economic structure. However, now, after the corona pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. economy is gradually transitioning into a structure that is less sensitive to interest rates than before.

Be less sensitive, and so, with a tendency to focus too much on interest rates, we have been thinking that it might be a bit difficult to follow the market flow too predictably. I asked about the FOMC earlier as the first question. Since Chairman Powell also emphasized the importance of employment, we have been closely monitoring recent employment indicators, which have been somewhat confusing. Some indicators show a hot market, while others suggest the economy is slowing down. I'm curious about your expectations for the second half of the year regarding employment. Yes, it seems it will slow down gradually. Last month, US employment increased by 270,000, with an average of 250,000 over the past 12 months, which is higher than 250,000.

Higher employment than the average, the U.S. job market still seems quite tight. Rather than worrying about that, it seems more important to see which companies are not laying off employees well. Employment is still steady, but with the unemployment rate gradually rising, it seems that overall, the U.S. job market is slowing down. So, ultimately, the U.S. job market is tight, but it still seems a bit hot. However, in order to lower interest rates, at least the U.S. job market needs to cool down a bit, so I think it may be around the fourth quarter of this year when interest rates can be raised. Also, there are significant differences by industry. So, in fact, the manufacturing sector is not doing so well.

The service sector is doing quite well economically, but ultimately, the strength of the U.S. economy supporting this service sector is explained by the differences between low-income and high-income groups in the U.S., as well as the differences between the silver generation and younger generations. In a way, the significant disparity between these groups in the U.S. economy can be seen in the speed of adaptation and reactions to interest rates, which seem to differ significantly from the past. Europe has already lowered interest rates, but the reason for this rate cut seems to be related to insurance. There is quite a bit of analysis coming out regarding this part, as the economy is slowing down and experiencing a downturn. Lowering interest rates once due to insurance reasons seems to be more feasible than continuously lowering them.

In a situation where emphasis is being placed on the fact that it won't happen, the United States is saying that the economy is quite good. It seems to be taking a slightly different path. Why is the U.S. economy not cooling down and remaining good? What is the reason? As I mentioned briefly earlier, when a major incident occurs, people experience some trauma. So, American people experienced a significant trauma due to the global financial crisis in 2008, the real estate market, and then some mortgages. To overcome the trauma they experienced, they have been reducing their debt continuously. As they have been reducing their debt, it seems that their sensitivity to interest rates has decreased significantly compared to before. Another reason is that now, compared to Europe, the U.S. economy seems relatively good because the silver generation in the United States has a lot of money. So, the retirement of the elderly in the United States is

When we look at the assets of the already retired generation, in the end, they now own a lot of stocks. Originally, stocks do well when the economy is good or when the economy is so bad that interest rates are lowered to stimulate it, creating expectations for the economy to improve in the future. They say that when the economy is expected to improve, the stock market is good. In a way, it seems that the U.S. market should be viewed in reverse. If the stock market is doing well, it means the economy is good. Therefore, it might be necessary to look at things differently. Compared to the retired generations in the United States, Europe seems to be at a relative disadvantage. Overall, almost all countries are aging, and the number of retirees is increasing. Retired people have differences in assets and wealth compared to the retired people, which may lead to differences in the types of insurance and the boundaries that make such insurance possible.

It seems to be raising some differences in the economic structure between the United States and Europe, where insurance may not even be necessary or can be done a bit later. Could the AI industry also be an important reason for this? Yes, so some AI-related factors not only involve the simple presence or absence of investment but ultimately contribute to the productivity of the country, causing various differences. Therefore, overall, the favorable situation of the United States is somewhat evident in various aspects, which may lead to the U.S. continuing to lead in the stock market and other areas. Will this continue to be effective in the second half? What about the AI sector? I think the AI sector needs to be viewed in the long term, so if there is some overheating, of course.

I may receive instructions on how to operate it, but I also think it could be an opportunity now. Well, just because of that, it doesn't mean that NVIDIA will provide and install it. But as AI themes spread, it continues to evoke other themes, creating investment opportunities within them. However, in the second half of the year, overall economic growth may slow down, so while the AI theme is effective, it doesn't mean that the economy will suddenly improve significantly due to AI. Therefore, rather than any sector or style of diffusion that is more sensitive to the economy, it seems more important to be compressed into certain sectors that are considered more significant. I see. Also, in the report, it emphasizes the need to look at the economy of regions outside the United States, especially focusing on the Chinese economy. What does this mean? Uh, regarding China.

I don't think we can see the situation in a structurally positive way. So, now China has various issues, such as debt problems compared to the United States. The situation at the Korean Peninsula is much more severe. But in the data I used, I mentioned the expression de-Securitization. Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the Chinese real estate market more actively instead of leaving it entirely to the private sector. That's why many policies related to real estate have been coming out since mid-May. However, these policies are actually more towards de-marketization. In other words, rather than leaving it to the market, aggressive government intervention policies are being implemented. Therefore, in the second half of the year, we should consider China from a neutral perspective. If we think about investment ideas from a neutral perspective, when the Chinese real estate market goes up, materials or industrial stocks related to China will definitely benefit.

Given the real estate market conditions, it seems a bit challenging for sectors that could benefit from it to gain strength. However, if China's real estate prices stabilize, at least indirectly, sectors related to Chinese consumption could see some positive effects. In our market as well, it might be necessary to consider sectors related to Chinese consumption, such as cosmetics, travel, medical, and so on, which could potentially do relatively well. It is important to take a neutral stance on China without being overly optimistic or pessimistic. Data supports this neutral stance. So, in terms of what was mentioned about leaving it to the market, it may sound negative, but government intervention itself could become more proactive.

We should look at each other's details neutrally. Is this what you mean? Yes, that's right. So, I don't think we need to view China's market too negatively anymore. Regarding China, you should see it from the perspective that there will be sectors that will gradually improve. You mentioned industries that could be affected in Korea, and now let's smoothly transition to talking a bit about Korea. In Korea, we cannot avoid talking about semiconductors, and there is also a trend where the secondary battery sector is being pushed down a bit and showing signs of recovery. Surprisingly, there are many stocks that are performing well in the domestic market as well. It's not surprising; recently, there are leading stocks in various sectors like food. In relation to this, I'm curious about how you view the second half of our market. I personally think that the upside of the index itself is quite limited. That's what I'm observing, and the reason I think so is that.

Maybe around summer, there is a possibility that the momentum of exports will slow down a bit. So, it's not that exports are bad, but currently exports are improving, especially focusing on semiconductors. Possibly, the range of industries that have improved will narrow down a bit. As a result, overall, if the situation where only semiconductors are doing well continues, the overall upward momentum of certain indices may weaken. In general, there might be a need to tighten up a bit on the export side, and then, if the momentum decreases on the export side, we may need to find opportunities in the domestic market, which has been suppressed and challenging. However, it's not like the domestic market of South Korea is exceptionally good. There are issues like the real estate PF problem, and although the real estate market is gradually improving, there are still variances between regions.

In Seoul, the difference between the capital area and the regions is very significant, and even within the capital area, there are considerable differences between regions. Therefore, it seems quite challenging for this to improve in one direction. However, what's interesting is that despite the poor domestic consumption in Korea, there are some service industries that are still improving. Among the industries I looked into, one that caught my attention is the transportation industry. According to our statistics, the delivery industry, which is a part of the transportation industry, has been improving. As we all know, with the rise of online shopping culture like Coupang, which has become almost a necessity in our daily lives, industries related to delivery are finding their place in our lives.

Or industries related to online shopping have been showing steady improvement or maintaining steady growth, so it seems that areas related to delivery or online shopping could still manage to cover to some extent, even if domestic consumption in South Korea is not great. This is how it appears. Another thing is related to IT. Now, domestic companies are continuing to do things like cloud services, even though domestic investment in IT services and related services by domestic companies continues, overall, services related to information and communication are improving. For example, in industries like cybersecurity, cloud, and AI-related sectors, and even though not directly related to AI, services in these related industries are also improving.

In industries like IT services in Korea, it seems that those that are not directly affected by the recession could be doing quite well. They are also focusing on the fact that actual indicators are improving. Yes, so I think that in the second half of the year, the domestic market may not be so open or have a significant upside trend, but overall, there are gradual pressures in the export sector and businesses that are steadily improving in the domestic market are being restructured. I would like to mention this trend a bit. This might be the last question, but when talking about the market in the second half of the year due to the outlook report, one thing that cannot be overlooked is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Of course, there is a detailed section in the report on this matter. I hope you have had a chance to refer to it. In short, what aspects are you paying attention to in your analysis? Well, there are two points.

Let's not panic just because Trump becomes president. Even if Trump wins, in his first term, there were many uncertainties. When I look at it, now, various things like Secretary of State or Treasury Secretary, looking at the people Trump wants to appoint, the policy uncertainty will decrease in the second term compared to the first term. In other words, even if Trump wins a second term, the direction of policies that come out will be more experienced and less radical than in the first term, so the political uncertainty will decrease. Secondly, the risk factor will now appear in the exchange rate because when there was a trade war in 2018 and 2019, tariffs certainly...

The currencies of the countries that are going up were very bad, right? We were like that, China was like that too, so now, for all countries, they are talking about tariffs, 10% for all countries, and 60% for China. But in reality, it doesn't seem like they will actually raise it by 60% for China. Because if they do, the prices in the U.S. will increase significantly, causing chaos. It doesn't seem like they will go that far. If they do raise it, the countries concerned, and countries like the U.S. that are making a lot of money, their currencies will weaken. So, from the perspective of the Korean won and the Chinese yuan, we need to be a bit cautious. This is how we are looking at it. I think this is where we should stop. Mr. Heo Jaewon's macro outlook report for the second half of the year, on page 7, will be posted in the library. Please make sure to refer to it.

I listened to the summary, thank you for your comments. He was the executive director of Eugene Investment's Research Center.

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실버 세대가 미국 경제에 미치는 영향

주로 주식에 투자한 미국 실버 세대의 자산이 경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

미국과 유럽 간의 은퇴 후 자산과 금융 수요의 차이도 경제 구조적 차이에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

투자자들이 파월 의장의 시그널을 기다리는 가운데 다가오는 FOMC 회의와 금리 변동 가능성이 시장에 불확실성을 조성하고 있습니다.

경제 안정이 금리에 미치는 영향

미국의 금리 변동 시기는 고용 및 인플레이션 지표와 대통령 선거의 영향을 받고 있습니다.

미국 경제의 금리 민감도가 낮아지면서 시장 동향을 예측하고 따르기가 어려워지고 있습니다.

일부 지표가 고용 시장의 호조를 보이고 있지만, 하반기에는 전반적인 고용이 점차 둔화될 것으로 예상됩니다.

미국 고용 시장에 영향을 미치는 복잡한 요인들

현재 미국 고용 시장은 고용은 안정적이지만 실업률이 점진적으로 상승하고 있어 금리 인상 시기에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.

저소득층과 고소득층 간의 격차와 세대 간 격차는 미국 경제, 특히 서비스 부문의 강세에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

미국 경제가 유럽에 비해 상대적으로 회복력이 높은 것은 미국 국민들의 지속적인 부채 감축 노력과 고령층의 높은 주식 보유율로 인해 주식 시장과 경제 성과 사이에 독특한 관계가 형성되었기 때문일 수 있습니다.

미국의 우호적인 경제 상황은 주식 시장과 다른 분야를 계속 견인할 것으로 보이며, AI 부문이 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 보입니다.

그러나 하반기에는 AI 테마의 효과에도 불구하고 전반적인 경제 성장세가 둔화될 수 있습니다.

중국의 경우 부동산 시장이 어려움에 직면해 정부의 적극적인 개입 정책으로 이어지고 있어 중국 경제에 대해 중립적인 시각을 갖는 것이 중요합니다.

하반기에는 부동산 가격이 안정될 경우 화장품, 여행 등 중국 소비와 관련된 업종이 좋은 성과를 낼 수 있습니다.

중국 시장은 점진적인 개선 조짐을 보이고 있으며 중립적으로 바라봐야 합니다.

한국의 경우 반도체 산업이 강세를 보이고 있지만 내수 시장으로 초점을 전환할 필요가 있습니다.

한국 내수 시장은 도전에 직면해 있지만 운송 및 IT 산업은 특히 배송 및 온라인 쇼핑 분야에서 개선세를 보이고 있습니다.

하반기의 긍정적인 트렌드와 고려 사항

국내 IT 서비스는 하반기 내수 시장이 제한적일 가능성이 있음에도 불구하고 회복세를 보이며 개선되고 있습니다.

다가오는 미국 대통령 선거는 트럼프가 재선에 성공할 경우 정치적 불확실성이 감소할 것으로 예상되는 중요한 요인입니다.

또한 관세 정책의 잠재적 영향으로 인해 환율, 특히 원화 및 중국 위안화와의 관계에 대한 주의가 필요합니다.