스타트업과 혁신에 대한 낙관주의의 관점

스타트업의 높은 실패율에도 불구하고 오늘날 세계에는 낙관할 만한 기술적, 사회적 발전이 많이 이루어지고 있습니다.

### YC가 미래를 낙관하는 이유
* 😔  많은 스타트업이 실패했지만, 성공한 스타트업도 성공하기까지 약  12년이 걸린다는 점에서 **YC는 실패에 대한 독특한 관점**을 가지고 있습니다.
* 🌍   YC의 미래에 대한 낙관론은 **90년대 이후 다양한 영역에서 이루어진 진전**을 확대해서 바라보는 데서 비롯됩니다.
* 💻  정보, 통신, 교통, 의료, 엔터테인먼트의 **가용성이 크게 향상**되었습니다.
* 🚀   YC는 우리가 **자율주행차, 재생 에너지, 우주 여행 등 다양한 혁신의 정점**에 서 있다고 믿습니다.
* 😔  사람들은 종종 **관점의 부재, 양극화, 비현실적인 기대, 일관성 없는 혁신 속도**로 인해 비관적인 태도를 취합니다.
* 👶  좋은 점과 마찬가지로 **단점도 존재**하기 마련입니다.
* 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦   YC의 창립자들은 아이들이 더 많은 기회가 있는 세상에서 성장하기를 기대하며, **낙관적이고 적극적으로 문제 해결**을 위해 노력하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

at YC, we fund a lot of startups, and even though we try to do a very good job, most startups fail. Yeah, if you look at the numbers, we know a lot more about failing and failed startups, yes, than successful ones by magnitude. Yeah, yeah, that's just how the numbers work, right? And so we see failed startups every day, we live it, we breathe it. This is just the job that we have, is we're experts on failure. Well, and just so you don't think, Oh well, you know, they're going to be optimism because they're like rolling in the dough, the ones that work take like 12 years to work, right? So it's like even for the ones that do well, like you don't make money fast being an early stage startup investor. So why is a situation where it takes a long time to make money and a lot of startups are dying all around us every day, why are we optimistic? I think it's this. I think if you zoom all the way back, all the way out, it's weird.

to talk to young people and have them be optimistic about the future yes it's weird it is weird yes and I think it comes down to perspective Michael yes I think it's all about perspective where if all you do is read the news every day you get bombarded with negativity if you're just consuming the news and not zooming out to be like yeah you know things were better back 50 years ago or 100 years ago don't point to me I wasn't you know um and I I'm again I'm not sure that's true I think this a perspective thing so again like so walk with us here let's let's talk about perspective yes let's talk about the things that have improved since the 90s when we were like teenagers let's go through the list we we we we thought let go the list right so the '90s were supposed to be boom time America and if we think about what's better now than the 90s I think I would start with like

availability of information. I remember in the mid-90s getting the CD-ROM called Encarta, yep. And I remember my uncle, who's 20 years older than me, being like, Oh my God, the encyclopedias in your house versus having to go to the library, this is incredible. And you could just search it, it was on one disc, exactly, it was easy to search and like that. Now, God knows how much more information than that is like for free on the internet. Everything, it's textual information, is a search away, yes, and video, freaking YouTube itself, CRA. There's a website where anyone can record any video of like any length, yes, on any topic for free, and you can watch it for free forever. That is like mind-blowing to me, yes, how incredible this is. Again, if you zoom out, if you think like you're an alien and you just have no context on this stuff, yes, this is incredible, incredible, and none of this existed, well, and this isn't like we're not talking about 50 years ago, right, we're talking

about like 20-25 years ago. Yep, this didn't exist, right? All right, next. Communications, uh, I don't know about you, but we started with one phone line in the house. Yep, and that's it. So now, when people, like, you know, I open up the messaging app folder on my phone, and there's like 17 apps with video, audio, text. I can text people all over the world for free. I can call people anywhere in the world for free. Like, that was it's better. It's like a lot better. It used to cost money. We living in New Jersey, it used to cost to call New York, right next door. You got to talk fast when you call. It was long distance. So yeah, so Communications a little better. Transportation, freaking Uber, ride sharing, travel, crazy. Maps, do you remember printing out Map Quest, dude? Do you remember just having to buy Maps, physical maps, to drive around a city, and your dad would have a bunch of maps in the car for all the places you might want to drive to in the future? So uh

trans station's got a little better, yeah, a little better. Uh, what else has got better? Health care. I mean, people are living longer, they're living better lives. Yes, standard of care, infant mortality. Yes, life expectancy around the world. People making more money, being raised out of the poverty line. I mean, just look at all the stats, you can look it up, viewer. Um, actually, like zoom all the way up out and look at this stuff for yourself. Yes, it's pretty cool. The number of people living in extreme poverty is less, the number of kids living longer. All right, what else? So, we got entertainment. Yeah, I mean, think about there's like an infinite supply of things to look at all day. Infinite, infinite. Any movie you want to see, any television show ever created, any book ever created. The sum of all human creative content in the history of time is available at your fingertips for free. Yes, and the only thing limitated is your willingness to go find it. Yes, like it's, it's your appetite is the limiting factor, not you might have TOS, yeah, might.

have to watch, but there's no, it's post-scarcity on this stuff. You're the only limiting is your imagination of what you want to watch exactly. It's all there. Okay, so where we sound like Boomers here, but the point, the reason to enumerate this stuff is that in the moment when all this stuff was happening, it wasn't immediately obvious that the world was changing. It was just kind of normal like, Oh, this new thing came out. Oh, that's cool. And even at the time, some of this stuff was, people were against it or they're like, This doesn't seem so great. No. And but when you gain perspective of a looking back 20, 30 years later, it's way more obviously earth-shatteringly awesome. Yes, I think they were on the cusp of a bunch of new interesting stuff, right? Um, you know, hilariously, like I remember when Starlink was like an idea, yeah, and it was kind of a funny idea, an internet access anywhere going to satellites, and it was like theoretically it's possible, but it was, I just remember

it being like well first Elon has figure out how to make his Rockets not explode but once he does that he's just going to launch satellites around the earth inter I I remember that being like oh sure and then like I remember the day starlink launched I was like I guess the rockets work it it works yes like you can use it you can use it Cru perfect example if I just think about you know growing up about just a number of people that I knew that died in car accidents and the number of people that every day get seriously injured or die in car accidents I think we're going to look back and be like that was crazy barbaric that was like having surgeons that didn't wash their hands in that era is I think how look at some of this Transportation stuff yes right and we're right on the precipice it's not like everyone's even excited about self-driving like it's like oh I don't know about this whole self-driving car thing drunk drivers aren't that bad are

they yeah it's only tens of thousands of people who die a year in America. it's like whatever. I mean another one's renewable energy. I I had a friend who was working on a startup, and he said something to me that I thought was a lie. he was like oh yeah based on like where you live in America you can choose to just buy your energy from like a renewable source like hydroelectric or solar. I was just like it doesn't exist. he's like yeah it's here. and I'm like oh well it must be like 10x more expensive. he's like no like right now it's I think like 10% more expensive. and I was like what like that it's that's happening like we went from solar being the future in the 90s to just being the commonplace reality that no one thinks too much about. and and it and it feeling economical for a lot of people. it's like oh you live in a sunny area yeah you're going to save some money. it did not feel

that way in the 90s. Well, we're in a solar power building right now, like, and this is solar power powering this lighting. It's, there's solar panels on the roof, okay, whatever. Do we care? No, no, it's like it's happening right now. Everyone talks about rockets and going to space, the whole like when Rockets are reliable, you can go anywhere in the world in 45 minutes. Like we could commute to Tokyo, yep. Like when that happens, like it changes the world in so many ways. And that was like in the 90s, we were watching space shuttles, yeah, go up, and like half of the in that space shuttle basically like getting ejected into the freaking ocean. And whenever you did the math, it was like, oh, that cost us more than building a rocket from scratch and blowing it up. Like that's where we were in the 90s. And now, like we actually have a path to I can go anywhere in 45 minutes. Like it's pretty cool. And again, what this makes me think.

of I don't have this graph handy so I hope I'm not misquoting, but I remember the graph being references of the cost per pound to put something in space, and it looks like law where what's is that there's this looking graph on how cheap how much cheaper it is getting to put something into orbit. Yes, and how if you just believe in the Moors law continuing to happen here, the amount of cool stuff that will happen in space in 5, 10, 20 years is just mind-blowing. Yeah, so if all of this stuff's great, why are people so pessimistic? Well, I think it's hard to have perspective, man. Yes, I think when you're really caught up in the moment, everything gets polarized into political stuff or tribal warfare about who's on what team. I also think there's this weird expectations game, right? Like it's magical thinking to think that we get all the things we spent the first chunk of the video talking about and there's nothing bad. Yep, that's magical. That's like that's not being an adult.

there's going to be trade-offs. There's going to be trade-offs, right? Like, it's like, you know, a child doesn't acknowledge a trade-offs exist, right? A child can think Mag want only the perfect. You know, it has to all be good with no bad, with no bad. Yes, cut the crust off, exactly. Cut the crust off, right. And for a while, adults can of create that world. Then, after a while, adults explain to their kids like, that's, I can't cut the crust off the world. Or like, you need to cut your own crust off. I mean, if you want to do that, you can't, but I'm, I'm not doing that anymore. No world is crusts. And like, you know, technology is crusts, yeah, right? Technology, with the good, comes some bad, right? So that's a big one. I also think that, like, there's this weird thing where the pacing is inconsistent, right? Like, um, sometimes you get a lot of innovation in one part of the economy, economy, and then sometimes you get a lot of innovation in another.

part of the economy it's not reliable yep. And so, you know, and it's so easy. It's this. It's this de debate thing where you can say, Well, what about X problem? Like, no matter what good thing happens, yes, and they're not wrong. What about like, you're right, X is a problem. Like, that's totally fair, but if you want to tear down anything interesting that happens by saying, Well, X over here isn't solved yet, it's easy to just get trapped in the mud. So I'll say this right in reflection, uh, you know, we both have young kids, and I am super excited that my kids get to grow up now. I, I, I cannot wait for the day where my daughter and son say, like, Oh, 45 minutes to Tokyo, that's so slow. I can't, you know, in my day, this isn't so great. What's so great about that, Michael? It's really Rocky. It's really, it's a bumpy ride. I like. I am so excited about the world that they're going to join, and I'm

confident they're going to get even more over the next you know 80 years than we're getting which is which is really fun. And think about it we all you all get to create this future. If you're actually building things and you want to be a part of creating it, yeah it's much easier and more fruitful to be optimistic and think about all the things you can do. And think about what you personally can do and what you can work on, yes versus just being like burned it all down because of X. Well you know think about it if you really care about those problems, you have to be optimistic to try to solve them. And like some of the people who are like the biggest social critics or the biggest revolutionaries are the biggest change agents in our society were default optimistic, yep they believed it could work, they believed effort wasn't a waste of time. You have to believe enough to to invest yourself into something exactly. And so I'm willing to bet None Of Your Heroes were the cool snarky folks who

never did anything and just bitched about how the world was like. None of your Heroes were that, and so don't be one of those people. Like, you can choose to not be one of those people, all right? Great chat, great thanks.

좋아질 수 밖에 없습니다

BZCF | 비즈까페

스타트업의 실패와 낙관론에 대한 독특한 관점

스타트업의 높은 실패율에도 불구하고 젊은 기업가들의 장기적인 성공과 낙관론이 강조되고 있습니다.

이러한 낙관론의 핵심은 90년대 이후 정보 및 기술의 발전, 특히 정보 및 기술의 가용성에 대한 관점을 갖는 데 있습니다.

인터넷에서 텍스트 및 비디오 콘텐츠를 포함하여 무료로 쉽게 접근할 수 있는 풍부한 정보가 이러한 낙관론을 이끄는 중요한 개선 사항으로 강조됩니다.

특히 장거리 통화의 경우 비용이 많이 들었던 과거와 달리, 전 세계 사람들과 무료로 메시지를 주고받을 수 있게 되면서 커뮤니케이션이 크게 개선되었습니다.

Uber와 같은 차량 공유 서비스의 등장으로 교통수단이 혁신적으로 발전하면서 인쇄된 지도에 의존해 내비게이션을 찾던 시절에 비해 훨씬 더 편리하게 여행할 수 있게 되었습니다.

영화, TV 프로그램, 책을 무료로 이용할 수 있는 무궁무진한 옵션이 제공되면서 엔터테인먼트의 가용성이 변화하고 있으며, 이는 희소성 이후의 엔터테인먼트 시대로의 중요한 변화를 의미합니다.

엘론 머스크의 미래 비전: 로켓, 자율 주행 자동차, 재생 에너지

엘론 머스크는 로켓 개발과 스타링크 위성 발사에 성공하며 우주 기술 분야에서 중요한 업적을 남겼습니다.

자율주행 자동차로의 전환은 연간 교통사고로 인한 사망자 수가 많음에도 불구하고 일부 회의론에 부딪히고 있습니다.

태양광 발전과 같은 재생 에너지는 90년대의 인식과는 달리 많은 사람들이 비용 효율적이고 접근하기 쉬운 옵션으로 빠르게 발전하고 있습니다.

이제 태양광 발전이 조명에 사용되면서 기술의 발전을 보여주고 있습니다.

우주에 물체를 보내는 데 드는 비용도 크게 감소하여 우주 여행의 미래에 대한 낙관적인 기대가 커지고 있습니다.

우주 산업의 비약적인 발전에도 불구하고 일부 사람들은 정치적 양극화와 비현실적인 기대감으로 인해 여전히 비관적인 전망을 내놓고 있습니다.

삶과 기술의 트레이드 오프와 피할 수 없는 도전 과제 수용하기

아이들은 세상에는 장단점과 불완전함이 존재한다는 것을 배워야 합니다.

여러 분야에서 혁신의 속도가 일치하지 않는 것은 끝없는 논쟁과 도전으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

이러한 어려움에도 불구하고 미래와 기술의 급속한 발전에 대한 기대감이 있습니다.

미래를 창조하는 데 있어 낙관주의의 중요성

미래를 낙관하는 것은 의미 있는 영향력을 발휘하고 변화를 주도하는 데 있어 핵심적인 요소입니다.

많은 영향력 있는 사회 비평가와 변화의 주동자들은 낙관적이었고 자신의 노력의 힘을 믿었습니다.

낙관적이고 능동적인 태도는 세상을 변화시키는 데 필수적입니다.