Hello, this is JB. To our membership Kim Myung-soo, Ni Ji-ha, and Gaji, Mr. Mi-guk Ju-sik Insaeng, thank you very much for sending the precious Super Tangwon. I will do my best to provide you with a lot of help in the future. In today's video, I will explain about yesterday's Nasdaq and bond market situation. The current market sentiment seems to be leaning towards fearing a severe economic downturn, but I will talk about why there is no need to be anxious and worry about it. Also, in terms of individual company news, Apple and perhaps Intel have announced their performances, especially Intel, which seems to have plummeted significantly. Let's talk a bit about Intel after a long time. And to our membership Blue Inje, you left a question on the community bulletin board yesterday. Lately, regarding buying SOXL.

It seems like you are not doing it, but do you have a planned price range? I think other people are also curious about this, so if I were to answer this question, I rarely make investment decisions based solely on the price. What I mean is, I don't buy just because the stock price is low or don't avoid buying just because it's high. Of course, I do consider the stock price, but I generally make trading decisions by comprehensively considering various factors such as the overall macroeconomic situation and sentiment. Therefore, I would like to mention that I do not set a specific target price in advance and wait for it. The reason I didn't add more to SOXL recently is that although I have strong confidence in semiconductors, I felt there were many uncertainties in the overall situation, so rather than hastily buying more, I prefer to monitor the situation a bit longer.

I have decided not to buy because I think it's better to buy at a lower price if possible. So if the answer was helpful, that would be great. Also, before we start today's video in earnest, I would like to inform our membership subscribers of one notice. I plan to post two membership posts today. I will post the first one a bit earlier than usual, probably before the employment report comes out today. At that time, I might consider selling all of the stocks we are currently investing in. The second post will be uploaded between the start of the main content and 11:20, so membership subscribers who usually refer to my buying and selling decisions should check the real-time membership community board at that time. Alright, let's now start today's video content in earnest.

I will do it. This week is really harsh. The drastic volatility every day is shaking our mentality. It was already expected, but the intensity is stronger than expected, making me feel dizzy. For example, based on the SOXL standard, it rose by 20% in just one day, then dropped by 20% the next day, causing chaos. Yesterday, the atmosphere wasn't too bad, at least in the early trading. The semiconductor sector showed some correction after the previous day's sharp increase, so the decline wasn't as severe. Thanks to Meta's good performance, the overall market sentiment was maintained relatively well. In terms of pre-market ES announcements, the key economic indicators included new jobless claims, non-farm productivity, and unit labor costs. Productivity exceeded expectations by a large margin, while unit labor costs fell significantly below expectations.

Yes, that's right. It means that companies spent less money and operated more efficiently. However, the number of initial and continuous unemployment benefit claims exceeded expectations. In the past, exceeding expectations was always positively received in the market, but now, with the September interest rate cut confirmed, there is a tendency to react more sensitively to worsening economic conditions. Therefore, it is not good to exceed expectations by too much. However, it doesn't mean we should immediately worry about a recession. Generally, if the number of initial unemployment benefit claims reaches 300,000 in a week, it is considered a sign of a recession. But since it is still at 249,000, there is some room. Of course, there are some analyses suggesting this. While 300,000 is typically seen as a recession indicator,

From around 250,000 onwards, you should be on alert, so some argue that this is a warning signal. Personally, I don't fully agree with this opinion. Even if that statement is true, it is somewhat exaggerated to make such a judgment based solely on the weekly unemployment claims figure. First of all, the number of new unemployment benefit claims itself fluctuates significantly week by week. Especially this time, there were many unexpected factors influencing the data. Due to the impact of Hurricane Beryl, the figures were high in the state of Texas. Additionally, in Michigan, as the car factories are undergoing summer maintenance, there is currently no need for workers. Therefore, this aspect also contributed to the high numbers. Furthermore, in Minnesota, due to recent changes in the law, teachers are now able to claim unemployment benefits during the summer vacation, which also led to a significant increase in the number of unemployment benefit claims.

I could have had a significant share, anyway, there were elements that could be adjusted here and there, so the market had been flowing smoothly so far. However, a few hours later, when the ISM Manufacturing PMI figure was announced, the market started to make a sharp turn. All the PMI-related indicators came out negatively, such as employment, new orders, and buyer's inventory, all showing figures significantly lower than expected, causing the market to suddenly become more thoughtful. Hey, is this really not a sign of a recession? This doesn't look good. Even though the continuous increase in unemployment claims and the high number of new jobless claims were just being overlooked, with the ISM PMI coming out like this, it's too unsettling. And remember, in August, the day before the FOMC employment report, they were worried about the job market. It seems like it wasn't just a customary remark. Oh no, this is serious. If the sentiment that a real economic downturn is coming suddenly spreads, the market will sharply.

It collapsed. However, from the bond perspective, which was waiting for an economic downturn, it was a very welcome situation. Therefore, you can consider that bonds ended positively yesterday. But, everyone, I think this is a bit too much, a bit exaggerated. Because the ISM Manufacturing Index has not been good historically. Although there was a brief positive moment last month when the index exceeded 50, overall, the manufacturing sector has been in a consistently poor state for the past few years. Nevertheless, despite this, can we say that the U.S. economy has collapsed? No, because the service sector, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, has not collapsed; it continues to grow well. So, I think this is an excessive concern. Additionally, there are two main institutions that measure the manufacturing and service sector indices: ISM and S&P Global. Recently, the market has

Considering the overall flow and consistency with GDP growth rates, the data provided by SNP Global is much more credible. Therefore, despite the historical background and tradition of ISM, experts are increasingly suggesting that we should now consider the data from SNP Global more important. Moreover, the manufacturing index released by SNP Global for July came out at a robust 54, surpassing the benchmark of 50 for economic contraction. Currently, out of the S&P 500 companies, 315 companies, accounting for 58%, have disclosed their performance. Their revenue increased by 4.8% compared to the same period last year, and profits surged by a remarkable 12.9%. These are outstanding figures that exceed Wall Street's expectations. With the situation as such, the question arises whether this can be seen as a signal of stagnation. Additionally, moving on to individual company news, regarding Apple and Amazon.

And Intel announced its performance. First of all, Apple showed overall good performance, with its stock price slightly rising to close. In fact, as I mentioned in a recent video, Apple is not really risking its life and spending a tremendous amount of money on AI development, so there weren't really any elements to nitpick. Amazon, on the other hand, succeeded in cost reduction, greatly exceeding the expected EPS. Unfortunately, their revenue fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock prices with downward guidance for the next quarter. Still, looking at positive aspects in Amazon's performance, even though sales in the retail sector slowed down a bit below expectations, they still achieved a remarkable over 20% growth compared to the previous year, and the Amazon Web Services division showed an outstanding 19% growth exceeding expectations.

It would be helpful to refer to, and next is Intel. Yesterday, I posted an intraday analysis article on the semiconductor sector's decline on the membership community bulletin board, jokingly saying, Let's just laugh. It was just my luck that Intel announced its performance in this situation today, making the semiconductor atmosphere even worse. To be honest, the post wasn't just a joke, and I had some genuine concerns deep down. However, as luck would have it, these ominous feelings are never wrong. Intel really announced its worst performance this time. After the performance announcement, the stock price is also plummeting by 18%. Looking at this performance, there is not a single bright spot. Everything is a miss, and the worst earnings shock has occurred. Furthermore, they announced the suspension of dividends, which will have an even more negative impact on the stock price.

I had no choice. However, if someone were to ask if Intel's performance is a failure, and if it has no investment value at all, I think this is another dimensional issue. Nowadays, criticizing Intel might lead to a lot of backlash, but despite that, let me express my personal opinion. Intel is a very iconic company in the United States. It has a certain romanticism. When you think of semiconductors in the U.S., Intel immediately comes to mind. Of course, its status is now largely being taken over by NVIDIA, but still, as the only comprehensive semiconductor company in the U.S., Intel has an overwhelmingly large number of employees compared to other semiconductor companies. Intel employs approximately 120,000 workers, while NVIDIA has around 30,000, AMD 26,000, and Qualcomm, among the fanless ones, has a workforce of.

It's a lot of episodes, about 50,000 people anyway. Even if AMD, Qualcomm, and three companies were all combined, the number of employees created by Intel alone is far from being matched. That's why whether the Republicans or Democrats are in power, Intel has to be taken care of. Also, Intel itself is a significant strategic asset. Being the only comprehensive semiconductor company in the United States, its value can only be greater. When the U.S. government creates military weapons, the level of semiconductor chips involved in them must be entrusted to Intel as much as possible. That's how it's been going on until now. So, anyway, I still believe that under the generous support of the U.S. government, Intel will succeed in its foundry business and leap forward again. Of course, it will take a long time to do so. That's why Intel is really...

It seems appropriate for those who are certain about holding for a long term to invest. So, I think it's right to invest. Well then, I think that's enough for today's video. As I mentioned at the beginning of the video, when the market opens today, I will post membership posts twice. The first post will be at the start of the pre-market until 9 a.m., and the second post will be at the start of the main market from 11 a.m. to 11:20 a.m. So, for the membership subscribers who usually refer to my buying and selling, it would be good to check the real-time membership community bulletin board at those times. Well, I hope all subscribers have a good day, and for the membership subscribers, I will see you again when the U.S. market opens tonight. Thank you.

호들갑은... 진짜 콱!

나스닥 시황 정리와 함께 제가 생각하는 투자의 방향성을 공유합니다.