터키의 경제: 달러, 금리 및 인플레이션 문제

### 터키의 경제 및 정치적 도전 과제: 인플레이션, 환율 및 정치적 역학 관계
* 📉 터키의 외환 보유액이 한 주 만에 **58억 5,000만 달러 감소**하고 순 보유액이 **50억 달러 감소**하는 등 경제적으로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
* 🗳 최근 여론조사에 따르면 가상 선거에서 **81.1%가 경제가 제대로 관리되지 않고 있다고 답**했으며, **CHP는 33.8%, AKP는 6.1%의 지지율**에 그쳤습니다.
* 📈 심셰크가 이끄는 정부의 경제 계획은 **인플레이션과 환율이 주요 관심사**로 떠오르는 등 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.
* 💸 이 계획에는 **2025년까지 화폐를 찍어내고, 금리를 낮추고, 소비자 대출을 통해 수요를 촉진**하는 한편, **2026년까지 인플레이션과 환율을 통제**한다는 목표가 포함되어 있습니다.
* 🛩 AKP의 경제를 **엔진에 문제가 생긴 비행기가 불을 끄기 위해 급강하**하지만 무게 때문에 다시 이륙하기 어려운 상황에 비유한 것입니다.
* 🏛 정부는 **특정 기업에게 세금 감면 혜택**을 주는 반면 다른 기업에게는 부담을 지우는 정책을 펴고 있다는 비판을 받으며 불만이 커지고 있습니다.
* 🌍 최근 이스라엘과 관련된 사건과 같은 외교 정책 조치는 **외국인 투자와 경제 계획에 영향을 미치는 것**으로 보입니다.
* 🔮 이 전망에 따르면 **2025~26년에도 높은 인플레이션(40~45%)과 42~53%의 환율**이 지속될 것으로 예상되며, **2028년 이전 선거 가능성이 점점 더 커지고 있습니다.**

경제의 불안정성과 정치적 도전은 달러, 금리, 인플레이션에 큰 변화를 예고하며 시민과 기업에 영향을 미칩니다.

I respectfully greet all the viewers. My dear friends, when we look at the dollar, interest rates, and inflation, we really need to be ready for some big surprises in the coming days. Of course, there are predictions about these. Give or take a few. You can also predict what might happen. But look, there are such big changes in politics that the numbers and data are giving us signals. In both the dollar, interest rates, and inflation, as I said, new figures are on the way. Now we need to analyze these, we need to reveal the changes and crossroads in politics so that we don't speak without knowing the facts. What will happen to us, to our families, to our companies when you borrow, lend, invest? Where will all of this lead us? We can solve these comfortably one by one, my friends. Look, Şimşek is trying to accumulate reserves. We said we have a 1% policy rate; it's the world's biggest usurer's interest rate. However, some problems are starting to arise here. When we say problems,

In the one-week period ending in July, we see that reserves decreased by approximately 5.85 billion dollars. Looking at the reserves, which were 15.9 billion dollars in the week of July 19, I see that they have decreased to 148 billion dollars. When I exclude the swap transactions I made and look at the net reserves, I still see a decrease of 5 billion dollars. I observe a parallel decrease with the information I provided. Friends, in the middle of a program, sales of government domestic debt securities, namely bonds, or the decrease in reserves, and other signs are not good. We had discussed these; I will not dwell on this further. However, in the upcoming period, the economy is not just about the economy, finance is not just about finance, and the state of politics is not just about the state of politics. Political parties involved in the political arena somehow act and make decisions to continue their existence, unfortunately, prioritizing the interests of the party over our interests. Look, related to this, there is a piece of news from the political front. Let's see, let it come on the screen, friends. Look, what is the issue here? When we ask, let's see on the screen. What is the situation with Hadise, Ozer Sencer, and Metropol Research?

You may have seen in the media Recently, a question was asked in our country about whether the economy is being managed well or poorly, and Look at the answer, friends, I think it is poorly managed by 81.1%. I think it is managed well by 16.3%. These 16.3 friends think that the oligarchy of the AKP, friends, because all the major resources are under their control, they think it is managed well. And below, you can see the distribution according to the parties. Of course, when the situation is like this, what happens, of course, this incident goes, friends, and what does it reflect, it reflects on the votes. If there were elections for Members of Parliament again, there is a survey asking whom you would vote for, and when the undecided are distributed, you see that CHP's vote is calculated as 33.8% and AKP's vote is calculated as 6.1%. There is a tremendous difference between them. Considering the legendary election results of the AKP in the last 20 years, it really shows us that they are in a very problematic situation. So, here, we know that the most important factor in this gap widening is the economy. When we put these data side by side and look at them,

What will happen to the dollar, what will happen to the interest rate? In the upcoming period, will there be an early election or not? While managing family and work, I want to share the results I obtained from these data that you can use. As you can see, there is already a significant reaction to Erdoğan and Şimşek, and AKP's vote, no matter what anyone says, is experiencing a significant erosion. Secondly, look, why do we say that you are canceling the tax debt of partisan companies worth 660 billion liras, but attacking the debt of municipalities owned by AKP before March, which is 96 billion liras? Now, these municipalities have passed to CHP, but who was managing them before March 31st? Friends, these municipalities were certainly managed by AKP, so tightening the throat of the organs serving the public also creates an allergy. And most importantly, the main reason for this allergy is as follows: look, I have been saying for 6 months that the budget deficit is 747 billion liras, right? Whom do you blame for this deficit? It equals the market value of the Holding. So, where does this money come from? It comes from the citizens. Now, the citizens no longer have the power or remedy to give this. Please.

When they say early election, don't just say it won't happen in Turkey and make a comment with your hands tied behind your back. The situation in Turkey in August 2024 is as different as day and night compared to August 2023 and 2022. For those friends who cannot make this distinction, I cannot find anything to say. So, it seems like you are clueless, but while the citizens are suffering, there are significant changes in the political equation. That's why we are making this video. In this political equation, you see the research of the metropolis. This will affect the dollar, interest rates, and inflation, my friends. Let me tell you this: when there is more than 180% dissatisfaction, if the reserves were as strong as in 2018 or 1999, Şimşek would have been dismissed long ago, my friends. However, if such a move is made, Turkey would face a major balance of payments crisis, and both domestic and foreign investors would close the last remaining small loans. It is obvious that Şimşek's game plan in his mind has not been realized. If this game plan cannot be implemented, it equals

High inflation equals a high exchange rate. Let's put this observation aside very well. The game plan in Şimşek's mind has not been implemented properly. How do we understand this? The trimming of the tax package, giving great rights to the oligarchy in this tax package, and another point, such as the state not putting its hand under the stone in terms of savings. Friends, what has prevented the implementation of this plan is situations like the program not working properly and in foreign policy, when actions are taken just to consolidate the content, what will happen as in the example of Israel, my friends? Again, weaknesses will emerge in the entry of foreign capital, which is an important game plan of Şimşek. Those who do not believe, look at the Istanbul Stock Exchange, my friends. There is an index that cannot exceed 11,000. Yes, it will go up to 14,000 or 15,000 somehow to please the investors, but the important point is that the entries into the stock market benefit the national economy much more. At the moment, it benefits the individuals and groups there more than they do. However, it is turning towards the national economy now. So, look, there is such a situation at the moment.

As inflation rises in spring, at the same time, your game plan not working out, in addition to the lack of actions to reduce inflation in agriculture and industry, as we mentioned in previous videos, what will it do will create a foreign exchange control problem. Also, the interest pressure in the business world cannot continue, my friends, these interest rates must come down. Dear friends, this will bring the exchange rate issue to the forefront. Iso announced the second Iso 500 data, there is tremendous cost pressure, financial cost pressure on them, sales have decreased. Therefore, you cannot continue this. So, two reasons, two reasons will come up with the breaking of Simsek's game plan. Inflation going up and interest rates needing to be lowered, this will bring the exchange rate issue to the forefront. What is the plan here then, what is the plan in the president's mind? Let me tell you, in 2025, by implementing fiscal policy, by lowering interest rates through printing money, trying to stimulate the business world, create demand with consumer loans, and trying to implement those old plans, and somehow keep CHP busy, and also adjust the dose of the opposition.

He is trying to keep it to a minimum, which we can partially say he has succeeded in. He also says with Şimşek, Let me control the dollar and inflation to the best of my ability through Şimşek until 2026, then let's go back to our old policies. By 2029, things will be a thousand times better than what we are experiencing now, but let me win the election, we will somehow solve the rest. However, look, linking to the dollar, interest, and inflation from here, I will connect them. This plan is very challenging. The reason why the President is having a hard time controlling inflation and the exchange rate completely is that, as of now, it is difficult. Let me correct myself, I apologize. He is currently struggling to fully control inflation and the exchange rate. Let me give you a concrete example. If the AKP were an airplane, friends, there is a fire in its engines. Look, there is a problem in the economy, there is a fire in the engine. To extinguish this fire, it is diving from the highest point to the lowest point due to the wind effect, trying to put out the fire in the engine. However, the plane is so heavy that when it wants to pull up, it will crash after the fire in the engine is extinguished. Unfortunately, both the dollar and the Turkish Lira are in very troubled waters.

Because the reasons that weigh down the plane, causing the AKP to stumble and lose votes, are inflation with no permanent solution, unemployment, the exchange rate going up. Look, in the fall, inflation will be created. Now, when the exchange rate went from 32 to 33, then to 35-36, when it reaches that point, inflation reflected from the external world will find you, and it will reveal deficits, budget deficits, price increases, taxes, trade deficits. It will create even greater demand for the exchange rate, causing the AKP to lose votes, reasons that weigh down the plane, reasons that decrease the party's votes. These are the important things now. What is needed for this plane to lift its head up, for the head to be raised in the air, is engine power. What is engine power? Since 2002, the engines of the AKP promised to go to Brussels with foreign capital. They said, I will comply with the decisions of the European Union and the European Court of Human Rights. I will respect Democratic Rights and freedoms, right? All of these have been put on the shelf. Therefore, foreign capital is burning in flames, those engines are not working on the wing, and therefore, without foreign capital, it is difficult to fix the nose of that plane. Where does this all end up?

Friends, look, the bottom line is this: everyone should calculate their accounts based on an inflation rate of over 40-45%. In 2026, this inflation will not decrease unless the Inflation Law is passed. After that, this inflation will not decrease. With a population heavily dependent on imports in both food and industry, facing deficits, what will the people do, friends? Somehow, they will reduce their support for the AKP. When we look at the exchange rate, we will see the 42-53 cycle. Because foreign capital is burning, I say the engines of the AKP are burning. Therefore, no effect is emerging to decrease this from here. As you can predict, a pre-2028 election will be inevitable. But let me tell you, before that, we will recover the economy, let's buy some time, that perspective is now over. Because there are no reserves to spend, because there is no foreign capital. Therefore, all my brothers, prepare yourselves for inflation not to decrease, the inflationist environment will continue, the exchange rate will go around 42-53, in 2025 and 26, this will increase inflation, interest rates. Yes, they need to lower interest rates. But the interest here.

It will not decrease the rate to a point that will relax the business people because there will be no money to pump into reserves, so the exchange rate will need to stay at a certain level. Well, Şimşek's dismissal at the moment is difficult, but what will happen in 2026? What will Cevdet Hoca say when interest rate cuts come? That is very far away. Well, we will look at the dynamics there at that time, but I'm saying that calm and beautiful days are not really ahead. In order to consolidate the content in foreign policy, I think there are significant weaknesses in terms of control in the economy. Thank you for watching me. I offer my respects again.

ÇAKILACAK!!!

Avrasya Yatırım

정치적 결정이 경제에 미치는 영향

정치적 결정에 따라 달러화, 금리, 인플레이션에 큰 변화가 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

터키의 외환보유액이 58억 5천만 달러 감소하면서 경제 안정성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

최근 설문조사에 따르면 국민의 81.

1%가 경제가 제대로 관리되지 않고 있다고 생각하는 것으로 나타나 정치 역학 관계의 변화 가능성을 반영하고 있습니다.

터키의 정치적 혼란과 그 잠재적 영향

터키 정치는 AKP의 유권자 지지가 눈에 띄게 약화되는 등 큰 격변을 겪고 있습니다.

당파적 기업에 대한 세금 부채 탕감을 포함한 정부의 재정적 결정은 대중의 불만을 야기하고 대규모 예산 적자를 초래하고 있습니다.

이러한 정치적 불안정은 달러화, 금리, 인플레이션에 상당한 영향을 미쳐 잠재적으로 중대한 국제수지 위기로 이어질 가능성이 높습니다.

경제 정책이 인플레이션과 환율에 미치는 영향

심섹의 경제 계획은 과두 정치권에 유리한 감세와 효과적인 저축 전략의 부족 등 다양한 요인으로 인해 실행에 차질을 빚고 있습니다.

인플레이션 상승과 금리 인하 필요성으로 인해 환율 문제가 전면에 부상할 것으로 예상됩니다.

이에 따라 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 재정 정책을 시행하고, 금리를 낮추고, 소비자 대출을 통해 경제를 활성화할 계획이 있습니다.

인플레이션과 환율에 대한 AKP의 투쟁

대통령은 2026년까지 인플레이션과 환율을 통제하는 것을 목표로 하고 있으며, 선거에서 승리하면 2029년까지 이를 크게 개선하겠다고 약속했습니다.

그러나 현재 터키는 인플레이션, 실업률, 환율 상승 등의 문제에 직면하여 영구적인 해결책을 찾기 위해 고군분투하고 있습니다.

AKP의 외국 자본에 대한 의존과 이행되지 않은 약속은 상황을 더욱 복잡하게 만들어 경제를 안정시키는 데 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

높은 인플레이션과 경제 불확실성의 영향

인플레이션은 인플레이션 법이 통과될 때까지 감소할 기미가 보이지 않고 40~45%에 달할 것으로 예상됩니다.

수입에 대한 의존도가 높고 재정 적자에 직면한 터키는 AKP에 대한 지지가 감소하고 2028년 이전 선거로 이어질 것으로 예상됩니다.

외환보유고와 외국 자본의 부족은 인플레이션 환경을 장기화하고 환율을 42~53 사이로 유지하여 경제에 어려움을 초래할 가능성이 높습니다.