삼성전자와 SK하이닉스: 앞으로의 시장 과제

### 시장 반응과 향후 전망 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 그리고 금융주
* 📉 외국인 투자자들이 **삼성전자 주식을 6조원 넘게 팔아치우면서** 국내 증권사들은 **삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 목표 주가를 낮추고 있습니다.**
* 📊 최근 **KB금융과 한화금융지주가 밸류업 지수에 편입되지 못**하면서 실망 매물이 대거 출회되었습니다.
* 🗣 최상목 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관이 기업 인수합병에 따른 주주 보호 방안을 발표한 가운데, **이사의 선관주의 의무 강화**에 대한 논의가 진행 중입니다.
* 📉 삼성전자는 **약 78조 원의 매출과 10조 원 내외의 영업이익**을 기록할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 기존 전망치인 **13~14조 원보다 크게 낮아진 수치**입니다.
* 💻 SK하이닉스는 일부 하향 조정에도 불구하고 **3분기 매출 17조원, 영업이익 6조원대 중반**을 달성할 것으로 전망됩니다.
* 📈 시장에서는 다가오는 **마이크론의 실적 발표**를 통해 기대치가 엇갈리고 있는 반도체 산업의 전망에 대한 추가적인 인사이트를 얻을 수 있을 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
* 💔 시장 상황을 개선하기 위해 출시된 밸류업 지수는 많은 투자자들이 **금융주 편입 제한에 실망감**을 표하며 제외 종목의 추가 하락으로 이어져 비판에 직면해 있습니다.
* 🔍 정부는 특히 최근 대주주에게 유리한 기업 행위가 잇따르르면서 상법 개정이 필요하다는 지적에 따라 **일반 주주를 보호하기 위한 방안**을 검토하고 있습니다.

외국인 투자자들의 삼성전자 주식 대량 매도는 반도체 시장의 미래에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다는 신호입니다.

Foreign investors have sold over 6 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics shares. Following Morgan Stanley, domestic securities firms are also lowering the target stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. It was a day of mixed results depending on whether they would be included in the value-up index. There was a wave of disappointment selling for KB Financial and Hanwha Financial Holdings after their index inclusion failed. Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Choi Sang-mok stated that they are considering measures to protect shareholders in the event of mergers and physical divisions. He also mentioned discussions with relevant agencies regarding the strengthening of the duty of care for directors under the Commercial Act. Shin, a representative of the Financial Integration Committee, noted that the need for interest rate adjustments is increasing. He explained that there is no time to wait until confirming the stabilization of housing prices or household debt. News Plus begins now. Morgan Stanley had previously indicated that a winter was coming for semiconductors.

Following Stan Lee, domestic securities firms are lowering their target stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Amid predictions that the third-quarter results of semiconductor companies will fall short of expectations, there are mixed views on whether the industry has truly peaked. Our industry correspondent, Jung Jae-yong, is here. Reporter Jung, Samsung Electronics is expected to announce its third-quarter results early next month, but the market has already lowered its expectations significantly, right?

Yes, that’s correct. In early October, Samsung Electronics is set to announce its preliminary results for the third quarter. Given the high expectations in the first half of the year for the semiconductor industry, we are now predicting a somewhat disappointing performance. Reports indicate that Samsung Electronics is expected to achieve sales of approximately 78 trillion won and an operating profit in the 10 trillion won range for the third quarter. An operating profit of around 10 trillion won is, in fact, a significant decline compared to several months ago.

Just a while ago, securities firms had predicted around 13 to 14 trillion won, but currently, it seems that about 3 to 4 trillion won is being deducted from that figure. The biggest reason for the decline in performance is undoubtedly the semiconductor industry. The stagnation in the mobile and PC markets is referred to as a legacy period, and it appears that the demand for semiconductors has not increased as much as expected. Consequently, Samsung Electronics is estimated to record an operating profit of around 5 trillion won in the semiconductor division, DS division, for the third quarter, which is also about 2 to 3 trillion won lower than the previous forecast. In fact, there were greater expectations for SK Hynix, which leads the supply of HBM for NVIDIA. How much has the earnings adjustment for SK Hynix decreased? Indeed, the expectations for SK Hynix were higher in the market. Fortunately, the downward adjustment of SK Hynix's performance figures is not significant.

Like Samsung Electronics, there isn't a significant adjustment, but expectations were high due to the elasticity of AI memory demand. SK Hynix is expected to record sales of 17 trillion won and operating profit in the mid-6 trillion won range in the third quarter. In a way, they are generating more operating profit than Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division. They had a reversal in the first quarter, but in the second quarter, Samsung flipped it back again. If we consider this as another reversal, it makes sense. NVIDIA's dominance in supply, particularly in HBM, has had a substantial impact. Additionally, the revenue from Solidigm, which is responsible for the NAND business acquired from Intel, has also significantly improved, with estimates indicating over 1 trillion won in profit from NAND flash. Tomorrow, the U.S. memory company Micron will announce its earnings, which should help provide some insight into the market outlook.

Yes, that's right. However, now that the earnings reports for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have come out, we have some expectations in the market. Micron itself is the third-largest DRAM manufacturer, so when its results were released, we could also see the performance of our domestic companies from that perspective. However, in the current situation, expectations for the performance of the three DRAM companies—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—are anticipated to be lower than expected, and we can say that this has already been reflected in the market. Recently, Morgan Stanley analyzed that not only the general semiconductor market but also HBM will face oversupply next year. However, our domestic securities firms do not agree with this. Indeed, there are evaluations that Morgan Stanley has a somewhat negative view of our semiconductor companies.

In our market, there is an assessment that Morgan Stanley's concerns are excessive. Starting from the fourth quarter of this year, companies like Samsung Electronics and Micron are preparing to supply HBM3 12-layer MBD, so it is true that the absolute supply of HBM is increasing. However, unlike general-purpose memory, customers, meaning client companies, like NVIDIA, place advance orders. This has a custom manufacturing aspect, so we can say that demand and supply are somewhat predetermined. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have already stated that they have sold out their quantities for next year, so the prevailing interpretation is that there won't be any drastic changes in supply due to a sudden market slowdown. Additionally, there was news today regarding the mass production of NVIDIA's next-generation GPU, Blackwell, which is set to begin in the fourth quarter of this year.

Morgan Stanley has reported that things are progressing as planned. Accordingly, the uncertainty surrounding HBM supply has been somewhat alleviated, according to industry evaluations. Therefore, the industry believes there is still some optimism regarding the overall semiconductor market. However, it is anticipated that the share of next-generation DDR5 and HBM will continue to rise. While we should be cautious about the overall semiconductor market, this sharp downturn is interpreted as excessive concern. 

Indeed, the market's chill, stemming from the deflation of the AI bubble, has led to speculation that the downturn would be severe; however, it is expected that it will not reach that extent. Of course, it is true that we are in a situation where we cannot expect an earnings surprise in the third quarter, but that does not mean there are no positive factors for memory in the second half. SK Hynix is expected to supply HBM for Nvidia's Blackwell lineup as early as this week.

We are starting mass production of the 3D 12-layer product. The black wave is pursuing according to plan, and now the possibility of Samsung Electronics' HBM 3 8-layer and 12-layer approval has also been postponed, but there is still potential in the fourth quarter. In particular, the demand for artificial intelligence data centers is continuously expanding the enterprise SSD and eSSD market, which can be seen as a positive factor for our country's companies. I have prepared a graph showing the operating profit trends of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the NAND flash business sector. For Samsung Electronics, it is expected to see a slight decrease in the third quarter, but it is showing a steady upward trend. This indicates that NAND flash has transitioned from a deficit to a surplus, proving its role as a cash cow in the memory sector, which means there is a certain level of defense available. Regarding this, NAND flash...

The sector is now engaged in a competition to continuously improve integration density, and there are analyses suggesting that profitability will improve further in the future. This is Jeong Jae-hong from the Ministry of Industry. 

Regarding the value-up index released by the Korea Exchange, there are already many expectations surrounding it. Due to China's large-scale stimulus measures, global stock markets have risen, yet our market has declined today. In particular, there is no sign that the massive exit of foreign investors is coming to an end. Yu Joo-hwan from the Economic Department is here. 

Reporter Yu, today’s situation seems a bit unfortunate. Can we say there is disappointment regarding the value-up? 

Yes, that's correct. The value-up index, which is the result of efforts by the government and the Korea Exchange since the beginning of the year, was unveiled yesterday, and there were hopes that it would change the market atmosphere. However, judging by today’s reaction, it’s lukewarm at best.

It can be said that the situation is quite cold. Both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets started off rising, but soon reversed and fell. They continued a trend of net selling of over 500 billion won, maintaining a net selling position for the past month. Naturally, the stocks of companies that were not included in the Value-Up index declined, and even those that succeeded in being included often saw their stock prices drop. However, semiconductor stocks, which have significantly decreased in price, as well as stocks related to semiconductor equipment and materials on the KOSDAQ, attempted some rebounds. In particular, there was a flood of disappointing sell-offs for KB Financial and Hanwha Financial Group, which were excluded from the Value-Up index. Looking at financial stocks overall, this trend was quite evident, wasn't it? Yes, that's right. If we analyze the reasons, it seems that there is a sense of disappointment among investors regarding the Value-Up index. As you know, financial stocks typically show good performance and are proactive.

Based on shareholder returns, it has been regarded as a top beneficiary and promising stock for value enhancement. However, in terms of stock price, it is still being evaluated very low, so it is considered to have significant potential for further increases in the future. But when the value enhancement index was actually disclosed yesterday, it turned out that only a few financial stocks were included, and half of them, five in total, did not meet the criteria. However, since they made a public announcement about the value enhancement, they were specially included, according to the Korea Exchange's announcement. 

Looking at the details, Shinhan Financial Group, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, and Meritz Financial Group were included, but top industry stocks like KB Financial and Samsung Life Insurance were excluded. Additionally, Hanwha Financial and NH Investment & Securities were expected to be included by the market but were also excluded. A notable point in today’s market was that the stocks excluded from the value enhancement index saw a decline of 3 to 5% in their prices.

Successful companies like Shinhan Financial Group and Kiwoom Securities, as well as DB Insurance, have seen their stock prices drop by 3 to 6%. This is concerning given that the Value-Up Index was created to address the Korea Discount. However, the response has been quite the opposite, receiving criticism instead. What is the reason for this? 

Many investors had high hopes for the Value-Up Index because they expected it to encourage companies to enhance their value through efforts to improve. However, doubts are already emerging regarding the inclusion criteria and the resulting outcomes. Among the five inclusion criteria presented by the Korea Exchange, three items have raised concerns. For instance, in the shareholder return category, there are criticisms that qualitative factors such as dividend yield and payout ratio were not taken into account. Additionally, focusing too heavily on indicators like PBR and ROE may overlook the potential for enhancing corporate value in the future.

There are criticisms that the valuation has not been achieved. Particularly, there are comments about the separation of financial stocks like the KOSPI. Among domestic financial stocks, only Kakao Bank and Meritz Financial Group exceed a PBR of one, while most are below 0.5. There is criticism that the key to enhancing corporate value lies not in PBR or ROE but in reconsidering shareholder returns. It has also been evaluated that they have simply repeated the failures seen in Japan. In Japan, when constructing the JPX Prime 150, which is a value-up index, there were instances where bank stocks and automobiles were excluded based on PBR. Consequently, while they succeeded in value enhancement, they were criticized for failing with the value-up index. Now, following this failure to be included in the value-up index, disappointment selling has flooded KB Financial and Hana Financial Group. What are the expectations for their stock price movements moving forward? Yes, that’s correct, the index inclusion...

In cases where it does not work out, the expectations for earnings will inevitably be somewhat dampened. However, analyses indicate that there are still high expectations for banks in terms of performance and shareholder returns. First, looking at the performance aspect, although the third quarter has not yet fully concluded, the loan growth rates in July and August were quite strong, so it is estimated that interest income has increased. Additionally, non-interest income is expected to rise due to the decline in exchange rates. 

Looking at the individual company performance forecasts, KB Financial is expected to achieve a short-term net profit of 1.5 trillion won in the third quarter, while Shinhan Financial Group and Hana Financial Group are also projected to generate over 1 trillion won in net profit, nearing the record high performance of the second quarter. Shareholder returns are also expected to continue. Although KB Financial was excluded from the index inclusion this time, it is preparing to announce its value-up plan as scheduled next month.

It was revealed that Oldra has announced the repurchase and retirement of its own shares worth over 700 billion won to date, and it has disclosed additional value-up plans, expressing hopes for inclusion during the upcoming review in June next year. Additionally, Hanwha Financial Group announced a share repurchase and retirement worth 300 billion won in the first half of the year. Although this fell short compared to KB Shinhan, it is expected that starting from the third quarter, there will be an increased capacity for shareholder returns, with the common stock capital ratio, known as the C1 ratio, rising by 13%. Consequently, the securities industry anticipates news of an additional share repurchase and retirement exceeding 100 billion won. This was reported by Yu Joo-an from the Economy Department. Concerns have been raised about the lack of treatment measures related to mergers or physical divisions, and we are proactively and actively reviewing these issues. While we are gathering opinions on how to improve these areas, Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok...

The government has announced that it will soon come up with ways to protect ordinary shareholders during corporate mergers or asset divisions. This was mentioned during a discussion held at the Seoul Press Center, highlighting recent concerns about the neglect of protections for ordinary shareholders. Although specific cases were not named, recent examples include the comprehensive stock exchange attempt between Doosan and Doosan Robotics, as well as LG Chem's asset division into LG Energy Solutions. These decisions have been criticized as favoring certain major shareholders while disadvantaging the majority of minority shareholders. The National Assembly is also taking action, with opposition parties pushing for amendments to the Commercial Act that include this issue. The goal is to strengthen the responsibility for protecting ordinary shareholders in society, with a firm commitment to address this during the regular session of the National Assembly in December. The government is also reportedly considering practical measures to protect ordinary shareholders, as explained by Prime Minister Choi. He asked for patience as they work on this.

I mentioned that it wouldn't take that long, but I showed a cautious attitude regarding the amendment to the Commercial Act. We need to consider concerns from various sectors, including the resumption, and there are many issues and standard precedents related to the Commercial Act as a whole that need to be examined. Regarding the hot-button issue of short selling, I reaffirmed the plan to resume it in March next year. In response to the question about what would happen to the securities transaction tax if the capital gains tax is abolished as the government claims, I answered that it would be lowered as planned. Concerns about increasing uncertainty in the stock market due to the introduction of the capital gains tax in January next year have continued. Amid ongoing discussions about whether it will be implemented or abolished, foreign investors have sold off KOSPI for six consecutive days up to today. Until now, I have reported from the Sejong Studio. Ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank of Korea held a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee members for the first time in four years. At this meeting...

Na-seon Shin Seong-hwan, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, indicated that there is no room to wait for a stabilization in household debt or housing prices, suggesting that the need for interest rate adjustments is increasing. Reporter Yoo Ho-sun reports. Shin Seong-hwan, a member of the Bank of Korea's Financial Integration Committee, assessed that there is no room to wait for a decline in household debt momentum until it clearly slows down. He believes that the current economic situation does not allow for any further delays in raising interest rates to curb the increase in household debt. However, he analyzed that the risk factors related to rising housing prices and household loan growth remain significant. This is due to the nature of housing that has a high proportion of debt at the time of purchase. When interest rates are lowered while there are strong expectations that housing prices will rise, it raises concerns about homeownership anxiety, which could lead to an increase in housing prices and household debt. Member Shin noted that the next Financial Integration Committee meeting is approaching in two weeks.

I am unsure about how to make decisions in October, as I have expressed my inner thoughts. Data shows that since September, the increase in housing prices and store loans has slowed down, but it is interpreted that it is difficult to guarantee whether this trend will continue in the long run. However, even if interest rates are lowered in October, it is interpreted that the response to domestic sluggishness is already one step too late. Shin's representative stated that we are currently in a situation where risks are significantly highlighted, and we have not been able to take preemptive measures. Therefore, even if interest rates are lowered, it can only be seen as a lagging response from a domestic perspective. 

In the Korean economy, Yu Ho-sung reports that domestic asset management companies have launched a specialized product for retirement pensions called the Didiem Fund. This fund is designed to reduce the risk of principal loss through diversified investment while generating higher returns than bank interest rates. The retirement pension market, which is nearing 400 trillion won, will see developments next month.

Ahead of the launch of the physical asset transfer system that will allow for switching, 25 asset management companies have simultaneously launched the Diddim Fund. The Diddim Fund is an asset allocation fund that diversifies investments across stocks, bonds, and alternative assets with varying risk levels, maintaining a consistent risk proportion. Seoyuseok, the chairman of the Korea Financial Investment Association, who has led the industry in building a unified brand, stated that he borrowed investment strategies from the National Pension Service and overseas pension funds so that pension subscribers with stable investment tendencies can achieve relatively high returns. In the case of the National Pension Service, it has been in operation and has generated an average annual return of about 6% so far. If this is calculated with compound interest, it results in enormous profits. The aim is to create a stepping stone for these relatively low-performing dividend products to be available without taking on significant risks. Each asset management company has launched a representative Diddim Fund, with some renewing existing funds.

Fifteen companies have introduced new products, including funds that diversify investments in global stocks, global bonds, global REITs, and infrastructure, as well as portfolios centered around ETFs and products that reflect the unique capabilities of the asset management firms, such as investments in growth stocks and dividend stocks. The Korea Financial Investment Association expects that target date funds, which automatically adjust risk and safe assets based on the retirement timeline, along with Didi funds, will become a new pillar for retirement pension investments. However, the remaining challenge is the expansion of sales channels. While the renewed funds can be sold through banks and other financial institutions, the newly launched Didi funds are currently only available for subscription through fourteen securities firms. In a retirement pension market where principal and interest guaranteed products account for nearly 90%, Didi funds are expected to provide new options for retirement planning.

It is noteworthy whether it will establish itself as a popular product. This is a report from the Korean economy. Recently, Korea has needed an enormous amount of electricity due to the expansion of data centers for AI implementation and the demand for grid connection for renewable energy sources, leading to power equipment emerging as a new export driving force. 

Selvion, a company developing radioactive pharmaceuticals, is challenging to list on the KOSDAQ. Reporter Kim Soo-jin met with CEO Kim Kwon of Selvion. When the drug enters the body and reaches cancer cells, radiation is emitted, destroying only the cancer cells. This is the principle behind radioactive pharmaceuticals, which are gaining attention as next-generation anticancer agents. Selvion, set to enter the KOSDAQ in mid-October, focuses on developing new radioactive medical products, with its main pipeline being a treatment for prostate cancer. This treatment targets proteins that appear in over 90% of prostate cancer patients and addresses issues such as resistance to existing therapies.

The target group is prostate cancer patients. Kim Kwon, the CEO of Selbion, explained that the candidate substance showed superior clinical results compared to drugs from global pharmaceutical companies currently on the market. When looking at the objective response rate, the ORR value was 29.8%, while in our Selbion case, it was 39.8%. Side effects such as dry mouth have been observed to occur at a lower rate, and renal toxicity has also been confirmed to be low. Selbion aims to complete clinical trials in the first half of next year and apply for conditional approval to quickly launch the prostate treatment. Additionally, it was explained that discussions on technology exports or joint research are ongoing with more than six pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Recently, we have signed NDAs with three global big pharma companies and are actively pursuing opportunities. Our internal goal is to achieve technology exports around 2027.

The half-life of pharmaceuticals is characterized by the need for rapid supply to patients. Currently, there are no dedicated production facilities for radiopharmaceuticals at the C GMP level in Asia. Plans are underway to establish a C GMP facility for radiopharmaceuticals in the country by 2027, which will also promote the production and supply of therapeutic radioisotopes. At present, these products are primarily produced in Europe and the United States, requiring significant time for transportation by air and customs clearance before administration to patients. We aim to build a new C GMP-level radiopharmaceutical production facility in the Siheung and Songdo areas. The public subscription will take place over two days, on the 7th and 8th, with an anticipated listing in mid-October. This is Kim Soo-jin from the Korea Economic Daily. 

In the AI deep tech sector, around 250 startups have gathered for networking and to meet with investors.

We have prepared. Our startups are continuously enhancing programs and networking opportunities to go global. With just an idea, anyone can come and create a startup, and we are working hard with the motto of creating an ecosystem where they can grow into unicorns. That’s all for today's News Plus. Thank you for joining us.

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외국인 투자자들, 엇갈린 실적 속에 삼성 주식 매도

외국인 투자자들이 삼성전자 주식을 6조원 넘게 팔아치우면서 국내 증권사들은 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 목표 주가를 하향 조정하고 있습니다.

삼성전자는 영업이익이 크게 감소하는 등 실망스러운 3분기 실적을 발표할 것으로 예상되는 반면 SK하이닉스의 실적은 큰 폭으로 조정되지 않았습니다.

곧 발표될 미국 메모리 업체 마이크론의 실적 발표를 통해 반도체 산업 시장 전망에 대한 인사이트를 얻을 수 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

삼성과 마이크론과 같은 기업들이 생산량을 늘리면서 HBM 공급에 대한 모건 스탠리의 우려는 과도한 것으로 보입니다.

NVIDIA와 같은 고객사들이 선주문을 하고 있어 수요와 공급이 일정하게 정해져 있습니다.

반도체 시장에 대한 신중한 접근에도 불구하고 차세대 DDR5와 HBM의 점유율이 상승하는 등 업계의 전반적인 전망은 여전히 낙관적입니다.

밸류업 지수에 대한 실망감: 금융주에 미치는 영향

코스피와 코스닥 시장은 밸류업 지수에 편입되지 않은 종목이 하락하면서 순매도 추세를 보였습니다.

반도체주가 반등을 시도했지만 KB금융, 한화금융그룹 등 금융주가 지수에서 제외된 후 실망스러운 매도에 직면했습니다.

밸류업 지수의 편입 기준에 대한 우려가 커지면서 특히 금융주에 대한 투자자들의 비판과 실망이 이어졌습니다.

어려움 속에서도 은행에 대한 높은 기대치

다소 낮아진 실적 기대치에도 불구하고 은행들은 여전히 양호한 실적과 높은 주주 수익률을 기록할 것으로 예상됩니다.

KB금융, 신한금융그룹, 하나금융그룹 모두 3분기에 상당한 순이익을 달성할 것으로 예상됩니다.

정부는 기업 합병 및 자산 분할 과정에서 일반 주주를 보호하기 위한 대책을 마련하고 있으며, 국회는 주주 보호를 강화하기 위한 법 개정을 추진하고 있습니다.

이자율 조정 및 퇴직연금 펀드 출시

통화정책위원회 신성환 위원은 가계부채와 주택가격 상승에 대응하기 위해 금리 조정이 시급하다고 강조합니다.

25개 자산운용사가 참여한 디딤펀드는 퇴직연금에 분산 투자해 은행 금리보다 높은 수익을 제공하는 것을 목표로 합니다.

이 펀드의 출시는 원리금 보장 상품이 지배적인 시장에서 은퇴 계획을 위한 새로운 옵션을 창출하기 위한 광범위한 노력의 일환입니다.

한국의 신흥 전력 장비 및 방사성 의약품

인공지능 데이터센터와 신재생에너지로 인해 한국의 전력 수요가 급증하면서 전력기기가 주요 수출 동력이 되고 있습니다.

방사성의약품 개발 기업 셀비온은 전립선암 치료제를 중심으로 임상 결과가 유망한 방사성의약품을 개발해 10월 중순 코스닥 상장을 앞두고 있습니다.

2027년까지 방사성의약품 C GMP 시설 설립을 목표로 하고 있으며, 글로벌 제약사와 기술 수출 및 공동 연구 기회를 적극 모색하고 있습니다.