미국 주택 시장 침체: 2024년 건축업자 재고 급증 및 가격 인하

### 2025년 주택 시장 경고: 건축업자 재고 급증
* 🏠 주택 건설업체의 높은 주택 재고 수준은 2008년 주택 위기를 반영하고 있으며, 현재 492,000채 이상의 주택이 매물로 나와 있습니다.
* 📉 건축업자들은 판매를 촉진하기 위해 상당한 가격 인하($40,000-$50,000)를 시행하고 매력적인 모기지 금리(최저 4.7%)를 제공하고 있습니다.
* ⚠ Lennar, D.R. Horton 등 주요 주택 건설업체들이 매출 감소와 주가 급락 등 우려스러운 재무 실적을 발표하고 있으며, 이는 구매 수요 약세를 반영하고 있습니다.
* 📍 특히 텍사스와 플로리다를 비롯한 '스마일 주'(선 벨트)는 재고 증가와 가격 하락이 가장 크게 나타나고 있으며, 많은 지역에서 재고가 7년 만에 최고치에 달하고 있습니다.
* 📉 Lennar의 스튜어트 밀러 CEO는 "연준의 단기 금리 인하로 개선되는 듯 보였던 주택 시장이 4분기에는 모기지 금리가 거의 100베이시스 포인트 가까이 상승하면서 훨씬 더 어려워졌다"며 "이는 매출과 신규 주문에 영향을 미쳤다"고 지적했습니다.
* 🏡 새 주택이 기존 주택과 경쟁하면서 건축업자의 가격 및 인센티브와 경쟁해야 하는 리셀러에게 어려움이 생길 수 있습니다.
* ⚠ 경기 침체에도 불구하고 Meritage Homes와 같은 건축업자들은 새 행정부와 관련된 낙관론에 힘입어 2025년에 사양 재고를 늘릴 계획을 세우고 있습니다.
* 📊 리벤처앱은 주택 가격 예측 점수(0~100점)를 제공하여 구매자가 시장 동향을 평가하고 정보에 근거한 결정을 내릴 수 있도록 돕습니다. 0점에 가까울수록 가격 하락 가능성이 높음을 나타냅니다.

미국의 주택 건설업체들은 기록적인 재고로 인해 가격 인하와 시장 침체에 대한 경고에 직면해 있습니다.

Home builders across America are dealing with their biggest pile-up of inventory since the 2008 housing crash. This pile

up of inventory is now causing these builders to cut prices, and many of them are now issuing concerning warnings

about the state of the housing market heading into 2025. Because what we are now seeing is a supply pipeline

on builder lots that's the biggest of all time, even bigger than the previous peak in the 2008 crash. You can see that home

builders in America now have over 300,000 homes for sale in the South; that's the highest level ever. So when you walk

around these home building sites in your community in Florida or Texas or Tennessee or Arizona, you're just going

to see tons and tons of new homes being built, ready to be sold, and these builders are now having to get desperate

to sell many of these homes. I'm seeing $40,000-$50,000 price cuts on a lot of these

houses, and they're even doing 45% mortgage rates. I'm wondering how these builders are even making money on these

houses anymore. The most recent warning comes from Lennar, the second-largest home builder in America. They

just reported fourth-quarter earnings and showed a 9% year-over-year decline in revenue, with their stock price

plummeting as a result. Meanwhile, one month ago, D.R. Horton, the largest home builder in America, had a stock plunge on

a Q4 earnings revenue miss, with the big issue being the amount of homes for sale on these builder lots. Home builders now

have 492,000 homes for sale at the end of 2024; that's the second-highest

level of builder inventory ever. The only other time we saw builder inventory even close to this high was 2006-2007, before the

Big crash, meaning that these home builders could be cutting prices by a lot in 2025 if these trends hold in.

In fact, some builders have already been cutting prices, so I want you folks to take a look at this community close to

Tampa. I actually toured this community over the weekend and I was shocked at how affordable some of the

houses were. Here you see that the builder is offering five-bed, three-bath homes at 2500 sq ft for

$369,000—that's $150 a square foot. And not only that, they're giving crazy mortgage rate buy-downs. I

actually went to that home building site and toured it and talked to the sales agent, and she was saying I could get a

4.7% mortgage rate for the full 30-year term of the mortgage, meaning that my payment would only be $2,100 a month for

a five-bed, three-bath house.  This indicates that there's something strange going on in this housing market right now.

I mean, these builders are cutting prices, they're giving big mortgage rate buy-downs, they have plenty

of homes to choose from, and yet they're still struggling to make sales, suggesting a real problem with housing

demand right now. Home buyers seem to be checked out of the housing market; they're not jumping to buy homes right

now just because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the election is over. Rather, these builders are observing persistent challenges with home buyer

demand. You can see, in particular, Stuart Miller, the CEO of Lennar, said that in the course of the fourth quarter, the housing

market that appeared to be improving as the Fed cut short-term rates proved to be far more challenging as mortgage

rates rose almost 100 basis points. He says accordingly, in the fourth quarter, sales pace lagged expectations and our

New orders fell short of expectations at 177,000 homes versus 190,000 homes projected. Now we can see that Lennar

they're the second largest builder in America by volume of units delivered, so the fact that they're reporting these

issues is of big concern. Meanwhile, the number one home builder is D.R. Horton, and concerningly, D.R. Horton is also

reporting similar problems. D.R. Horton missed their fourth-quarter earnings estimates; their revenue was down 5%

year-over-year. Their CEO, Donald Tomlin, said in their earnings call that, "We believe that rate volatility and uncertainty are

causing home buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near term." But the broader implication here, folks, is not

good for the housing market in 2024. I mean, in many of the states where these builders are most active, we have record

high home prices, and the fact that these builders are signaling weakness shows that there are fewer buyers coming into

these states, and that prices are going to need to come down to allow local buyers to step into the market and

afford the homes.  Opening up RevenueApp, I'm going to show you some of the states where these builders are most active. We

go to a demographic data point called building permits. You can see the most building permits are pulled in Texas, as

well as Florida, North Carolina, California, Arizona, and Georgia. So the states in red have the most building permits, but on a relative basis, it's

really here in the South where the builders are most active. And so one way to actually think about these builder

warnings about demand and inventory is that it's really impacting this slice of the U.S. housing market here. They're

called the "Smile States," warm-weather, Sun Belt climates. This is where the builders are most active, and this is where

Inventory has gone up the most, so in Texas there are now 115,000 homes for sale on the resale market. That's the highest

level of inventory in seven years. So, on the resale market, inventory in Texas is exploding. Now you have the builders

saying we're having issues, meaning more inventory is going to hit in 2025. Meanwhile, in Florida, inventory is up to

152,000 homes, also the highest level in seven years, suggesting that we're in a downturn in Florida's housing market.

Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Tennessee just hit its highest level of inventory in seven years. Most notably here in the Sun Belt,

which is where I think home prices have the greatest likelihood of dropping in 2025, is after all the housing market is

a supply and demand equation. Everyone, how many people are looking to buy homes versus how many people are looking to

sell homes? And that equation in the South is tilting towards now an oversupplied housing market that's much

more favorable to buyers, where sellers are really going to have no choice but to cut prices next year. And the

interesting thing about these builders is that they have pricing power. So, while they're starting to struggle in terms of

their earnings reports and their stock prices, Lennar is down 25% over the last three months, they still actually have

decent profit margins, so they have room to cut prices and they have room to give mortgage rate buy-downs. That's

something that's going to mean that the builders actually end up faring better than existing home sellers. I want you to

think about something, everyone. Remember this community I showed you earlier, the Lennar community where they're selling houses at $150 a foot? If you go to the

same area, east of Tampa, you can see that there are existing homeowners, resellers, who are also trying to sell their homes.

Maybe they bought a home from the builder two or three years ago, like in this case, and they're trying to sell a

four-bed, two-bath for $3.95 million, and they're still trying to make a profit on it, like

the owner of this house bought it for $317,000 in 2021; they're trying to get $395,000. However, this seller is now competing with the builder who's offering a bigger, newer house for

$20,000 less with a 4.7% mortgage rate. And this is almost the conundrum that

you have as a home buyer in these homebuilder communities: that while it might appear attractive at first glance

to buy a house from a builder because they're giving a more affordable price and they're giving a buy-down mortgage rate,

if you then go to try to sell that house two or three years later, you might actually have trouble selling your house

because you're going to be competing with that builder when you go to sell it. And actually, folks, I had to see this for

myself. Everyone, I was looking at the Lennar earnings reports; I was looking at the data on how much the builder's

inventory was going up, and I said to myself, "I need to go on the ground and look at what's going on here in the"

Tampa metro area for myself." So I did that, and over the next couple of minutes, I'm going to show you some clips of me

touring different home building sites. And you know what I saw, everyone? Something that kind of shocked me. This...

folks, I want you to take a look at what's right behind me. I just drove about 10 minutes down the street and I

found a deserted home building site here from D.R. Horton. This is America's largest home builder, D.R. Horton. I talked to you

About a month and a half ago, they gave some warning in their earnings call about reduced demand in Florida and

Texas. Well, look at what we're seeing here in Florida: all these brand-new, built homes from D.R. Horton. I'm going

to take you down here so you can see what we're dealing with. Almost universally, these homes have an

available sign in front of them. That's how you know that the house is a spec house—that the builder built it and

finished it, and there's no buyer. You can see it: 'available,' 'available,' 'available,' 'available,' 'available.'

It looks like one person bought that house over there. And this is what scares me, actually, about the builder market

right now and the housing market in 2025: it's not just the overall homes for sale, but the amount of spec inventory that's

sitting on the market. We just haven't seen this ever, except for the 2008 bubble. And so many people in the housing

market seem to think that a crash is impossible. This is what amazes me: we're seeing all the signs of a

downturn already playing out in the market in Florida and Texas. It's unquestionable that there's a downturn

playing out in those two markets. Inventory is spiking on the resale market; builder supplies are surging; prices are now starting to drop; yet there's still

this denial in the housing market mainstream that this is actually happening. And I think one of the reasons

why there's the denial is people look at the national home price index, right? And the national home price index is still

at a record high and it's still actually up 3.5% to 4% year-over-year,

depending on the metric you look at. So we still are seeing national home prices go up, and as a result, I think a lot of

Analysts in the housing market, they lose the local perspective, and a lot of the news reporters lose the local

perspective and are ignoring the fact that there is a downturn occurring here in Florida. Now I want you to take a look

at this. Everyone, this is another home building site, but you could see they're just putting the stakes in the ground

here on this home building site. They have a couple of houses out of the ground here; they have a couple of houses out of

the ground here, but you could see all this land, all this land, and you can see the signs over there for where they're

going to have their lots for their homes. And this is what's also interesting: it's not just that there's a big pipeline of

built homes completed and under construction; there's also a big pipeline yet to be built. And what's super

interesting is that these builders don't seem to care about the slowdown in the market. Rather, the builders are going

full speed ahead into 2025 and are building more homes into this regional downturn in Florida, where I think prices

in Florida could probably drop by about 10% in 2024. I'm going to get into some

of those specific projections in a second on how much I think prices are going to drop in Florida this year, but

2008 all over again. (Home Builder warning)

Reventure Consulting

기록적인 주택 건설사 재고 및 가격 인하

높은 재고 수준으로 인해 빌더는 가격을 크게 인하하고 있습니다.

건설업체들은 2025년 주택 시장에 대한 경고를 내놓고 있습니다.

현재 공급 파이프라인은 역대 최대 규모입니다.

남부에서 30만 채 이상의 주택이 매물로 나와 있으며, 이는 사상 최고치입니다.

대폭적인 가격 인하($40,000-$50,000)와 모기지 금리 인하가 제공되고 있습니다.

주요 주택 건설업체, 수익 감소 및 우려 사항 보고

두 번째로 큰 건설업체인 Lennar는 전년 대비 9%의 매출 감소를 기록했습니다.

최대 건축업체인 D.R. Horton은 높은 재고로 인해 주식이 급락했습니다.

현재 492,000채의 주택이 매물로 나와 있으며 이는 역대 두 번째로 높은 수준입니다.

인벤토리 수준은 2008년 폭락 이전과 비슷한 수준입니다.

이러한 추세가 지속된다면 2025년에는 추가 가격 인하가 예상됩니다.

현재 시장 상황 및 구매자 행동 분석

모기지 이자율을 크게 낮춘 저렴한 주택의 예입니다.

빌더들은 가격 인하와 인센티브에도 불구하고 판매에 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

주택 구매자는 시장에 적극적으로 참여하지 않습니다.

Lennar의 CEO는 모기지 금리 상승과 판매 부진으로 인한 어려움을 언급합니다.

D.R. Horton도 비슷한 문제와 구매자의 신뢰도 하락을 보고했습니다.

주택 가격에 대한 지역별 영향 및 시사점

많은 주에서 기록적으로 높은 주택 가격이 경기 둔화의 원인이 되고 있습니다.

건축 허가 데이터는 남부가 가장 큰 영향을 받은 지역임을 강조합니다.

텍사스와 플로리다의 높은 재고 수준은 시장 침체를 시사합니다.

공급과 수요의 방정식이 공급 과잉 시장으로 바뀌고 있습니다.

빌더는 가격 책정 권한과 추가 가격 인하 여지가 있습니다.

건설업체의 신규 주택은 기존 주택에 비해 경쟁력 있는 가격으로 책정됩니다.

리셀러는 빌더의 가격 및 인센티브와 경쟁하는 데 어려움을 겪을 수 있습니다.

빌더에서 구매하면 나중에 재판매할 때 어려움이 발생할 수 있습니다.

미분양 주택이 많은 버려진 D.R. 호튼 건설 현장의 모습.

높은 수준의 사양 인벤토리는 주요 관심사입니다.

전국 주택 가격 지수의 상승에도 불구하고 경기 침체 조짐이 나타나고 있습니다.

경기 둔화에도 불구하고 빌더들은 계속 건설을 진행하고 있어 잠재적인 가격 하락 가능성을 시사합니다.

Meritage Homes는 2025년에 사양 인벤토리를 늘릴 계획입니다.

트럼프의 당선으로 인해 시장 심리가 개선되었다고 해서 경제성이 개선되지는 않습니다.

생산량이 증가하면 가격이 더 하락하여 구매자에게 이익이 될 수 있습니다.

구매자에게는 긍정적, 기존 주택 소유자 및 투자자에게는 부정적 전망.

빌더는 팬데믹 기간 동안 높은 수익률로 인해 가격을 더 인하할 여지가 있습니다.

예비 주택 구매자가 시장 변동성과 가격 하락을 이해할 수 있도록 조언합니다.