미국 주택 시장 변동, 예측 및 전략

### 미국 주택 시장 업데이트: 지역별 가격 편차, 시장 주기, 변화하는 트렌드
* 🏠 주택 가격은 사상 최고치를 기록하고 있지만, **150대 대도시 중 24곳이 전년 대비 하락**하는 등 일부 시장에서는 하락세가 나타나고 있습니다.
* 📉 마이애미가 **11.2%의 감소율**로 선두를 달리고 있으며, **덴버, 시애틀 등**이 큰 폭으로 감소했습니다.
* 🔄 부동산 시장은 예측 가능한 계절적 패턴을 따르며, 일반적으로 **여름에 가격이 정점**을 찍고 **겨울에 하락**합니다.
* 📅 분석가들은 부동산의 주기를 **18년으로 보고** 있으며, 다음 침체기는 **2026년으로 예상**하고 있습니다.
* 🏘 건축업자들은 점점 더 넓어지는 평수의 추세에 역행하여 **더 작은 주택**을 건설함으로써 경제성 문제에 대응하고 있습니다.
* 💰 일부 가격 인하에도 불구하고 **전국 평균 물가는 여전히 전년 대비 6.3% 상승**했습니다.
* 🔮 그레이엄 스테판은 구매자에게 **장기 소유(최소 10년)**를 고려하라고 조언하며, 미국 내 많은 지역에서 **단기적으로는 임대료가 더 저렴**할 수 있다고 지적합니다.
* ❓ 주택 시장은 여전히 복잡하고 예측하기 어려운 상황이며, **금리 및 재고 수준**과 같은 잠재적 요인이 향후 추세에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

주택 가격은 재고 및 계절적 수요 패턴과 같은 요인에 영향을 받아 일부 주요 시장은 하락하는 반면 다른 시장은 계속 상승하는 등 변동이 심합니다.

what's up, you guys? It's Graham here, and we got to talk about what's happening with housing prices because despite record high values, constant increases, and the worst affordability in 40 years, there's actually some good news in that a few major housing markets are finally beginning to fall. For example, One Market just dropped 3% thanks to rising inventory. Two other states are starting to witness price reductions with more available homes than there are buyers, and 24 of the largest 150 metros are already seeing year-over-year declines. But of course, to make matters even more confusing, some markets are only getting more expensive with places like San Diego seeing a 99.2% increase. Las Vegas starting to rebound as prices go up by 7.8%, and more specific metros are appreciating by more than 20%. That's why I thought it'd be really interesting to break down exactly where housing prices are falling the most across the United States, why median values could actually begin to come down over the next year.

two, and then most importantly, what you could do about this to come out ahead on today's episode of Don't Forget to Clean Your Cat's Litter Box. Although before we start, as usual, if you appreciate information like this in more of a podcast-style setting, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already. It's totally free and that ensures that you don't miss out on any future updates like this. So thank you guys so much. And also, big thank you to Incog for sponsoring today's video, but more on that later. All right, so in terms of what's going on, it's first important to understand the term seasonality. See, for those unfamiliar, real estate generally tends to follow a very predictable cyclical pattern of peaks and valleys where prices rise and fall on a rather consistent basis. As you can see here, that's because historically, people are most likely to buy a home and move around spring and summer, and sellers are most likely to take their

homes off the market in the winter, leading to this midyear Feeding Frenzy of homes that begins to drive prices higher as demand increases. As for why this happens, redin analysts say it's mostly dictated by weather, where cold and wintry conditions can make it hazardous or simply undesirable for buyers to travel to tours. Sellers know that homes have more curb appeal when flowers are in bloom, lawns are lush. Now, even though most seasonal pricing tends to be a difference of 8 to 12% off the sales price, some locations like the Northeast and Great Lakes lead the nation with a 22% variation between summer and winter sales prices. Which means right now is probably going to be the most competitive time to get a home under contract, with just under 70% of all sales activity taking place in just a few of these busiest months, like we're seeing today. In fact, the National Association of Realtors said that sales activity between February and March typically increases by 30 4%.

prices rise by 3%, and the busiest months tend to occur in June, July, and August. I say all of this because when it comes to housing prices, there's almost always going to be a significant difference between summer and winter months, so once you understand this, everything else we go over is going to start to make a lot of sense. Now before we dive into these specific locations seeing the biggest decreases and increases across the country, I just want to say accurately predicting the real estate market is incredibly challenging, especially since each market is so localized. But one method tries with fairly decent accuracy dating all the way back to the late 1800s, and that's what's known as the 18-year cycle. This was originally identified by the British real estate Economist Fred Harrison, and by using these techniques, he correctly predicted the housing market crashes in the early 1990s and in 2008, a full decade before they happened. And according to him, he thinks the next Real Estate crash is going to occur in 2026. As he explains:

every 18-year cycle begins with a 14-year expansion, where prices rise, followed by a subsequent four years where prices fall. And it all begins once a market starts recovering from a crash. During this time, demand is low, the market is uncertain, Banks aren't lending a lot of money, and new construction somewhat stalls. However, in the next phase, demand begins to pick up, rents begin to increase as more inventory gets sold, and construction picks up to satisfy some of the extra demand. In the third phase, though, the market starts to overheat and prices rise at an unprecedented rate as more inventory floods the market. Some even call this the Winner's curse where people buy in just because they're expected to automatically make a profit because they bought something. However, in the fourth phase, this demand begins to fizzle out, overbuilding causes prices to fall, buyers wait on the sidelines because they see the market falling and expect that they could buy even cheaper. Banks begin to scale back, sellers reduce their asking prices, and then the cycle begins to repeat itself. Now, obviously, all of this is overly

simplified, and things like regional variability, policy changes, interest rates, and investor sentiment could lengthen or shorten these time frames by however many years. But if he's right, then our next downturn could just be 2 years away. For example, in terms of a more specific timeline, he points out that the market generally takes about four years to start its upward trajectory, which would have last occurred from 2008 to 2012. From there, we typically see about 6 to S years of modest growth, which is largely what we saw from 2012 through 2018. His midcycle dip even occurred throughout some of the major markets in the United States, with several CI seeing a price drop in 2018 and 2019. But then we have the final boom phase lasting 6 to 7 years, where prices grow faster than at any other point in the cycle, taking us through 2026. Now, even though this could be certainly chalked up to a crazy conspiracy, and just because it's happened in the past

doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Although the founder does believe this method is still valid, saying, we'll be in uncharted waters, it's anybody's guess as to the rate of collapse of housing prices. However, in terms of exactly where prices are falling the most today and which cities you're seeing the largest declines, here's where things get really interesting. Hold on one sec. Hello? Seriously, it's a robocaller. Look, as much as I enjoy talking about real estate, the sad reality is that data brokers are out there who sell your information to third parties, spammers, or other people who might want to target you, and it's happening at an alarming rate. Like anytime you give out your information online, anytime you sign up for a product or service, or anytime you make a purchase, your information's potentially floating around the internet somewhere in the hands of maybe someone you don't want having it. I've even had several times in the past where fraud alerts have shown up on my credit card from people trying to make a

purchase in another state. This has happened for over a decade now, no matter how careful I try to be. Now, of course, the good news is that you have a right to protect your privacy and request the data brokers remove the information they have about you. The bad news is that this could take years to do yourself manually, which is why our sponsor in Cogy is there to help. They could do all the work for you by reaching out to data brokers on your behalf, requesting personal data be removed, and dealing with any objections the websites or data brokers might have. And since many data brokers continue collecting your information even after they've removed it, Cogni also takes care that your data stays off the market by conducting repeated removal requests. All you have to do is create an account, grant them the right to work for you, and sit back while they keep you updated every step of the way. They're also available risk-free for 30 days, meaning anyone is able to try it out for themselves and get a full refund.

if they aren't happy with the service. So, if you're interested in having your personal data be removed, check out incog atcog.org or use the link Down Below in the description and use the code gram at checkout for 60% off your annual plan. Again, the link is down below in the description to get started today. And now let's get back to the topic at hand. In terms of where real estate values are falling the most, two states are taking the lead with that being Florida and Texas. As Business Insider reported, both states have been building more homes than any other part of the US in a race to make room for pandemic newcomers. Or basically the states that saw the largest pandemic boom were also the same areas that saw the most development, most price growth, and most oversaturation to the point where now they're no longer the most cost-effective and are no longer the most attractive. Leading, of course, to in some of these areas more supply than demand. Of course, in terms of more specific

cities. Realtor.com reported on the 11 markets that are seeing the largest decline so far in the United States. At the top of the list is Miami with an 11.2% drop year-over-year. Denver came in with a 6.3% drop, Seattle at 5.5%, Kansas City at 4.9%, Oklahoma City at 4.3%, and San Jose at 4%. On top of that, even Manhattan real estate prices are beginning to turn the corner, with the average sales price falling 3% thanks to rising inventory. In fact, there is now 9.8 months' worth of inventory listed for sale in Manhattan, which means they are officially in a buyer's market. Of course, it might be too early to tell if it's a one-off event or if this is the start of a new trend, but it is very interesting to see exactly which markets are most affected. Now, second when it comes to falling prices, there's another more sinister aspect to consider, and that's

term called shrinkflation. Yep, you heard that correctly. The same term that usually refers to foods and products suspiciously getting smaller over time while remaining the same price has now officially made it to the housing market. And in a way, it's working. See, here's the thing. For those unaware, over time, the size of the average house has increased by a lot. For example, you could see that in the 1970s, the average household size was three people who lived in a house that was roughly 1,650 ft. But over time, the average home just kept getting bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger, while the average household kept getting smaller and smaller. Or, I guess, put it another way, fewer people are now living in more square footage. That's why, even though the average price per square foot has stayed the same adjusted for inflation, houses are getting more expensive because, in fact, they're getting bigger. As a really crude visual of this that I just made myself on Photoshop, imagine that the average home was

$184,000 in 1980 for 1600 ft, or $299,000 in 1990, but for 2600 ft. Of course, if you're curious what the data shows us in percentage terms, both the average median size of new US houses has increased by 62% since 1973. Frankly, the reason for this is really twofold. One, builders want to maximize the square footage on a vacant land for resale value, so they'll typically max out whatever they're able to construct. And two, buyers today want extra space for activities, especially as it becomes more common to work from home, so they'll gladly pay for it. However, that's now seeming like it's starting to change because construction costs are increasing and buyer affordability is declining. Builders have begun to create smaller homes in an effort to charge less. And like I mentioned earlier, it's beginning to make a noticeable difference. Like a recent analysis found that single-family homes have decreased in size to the lowest level since 2010.

and builders are beginning to focus their efforts on creating more starter homes. Zillow even reported an increase of 9.5% in single-family homes with fewer than three bedrooms. Not to mention when I started looking into this, I found an Indiana-based home builder who recently introduced detached homes that are 50 to $75,000 less expensive and 3 to 500 sq ft smaller than regular builds. I guess to me this just seems like more of an optimization or as they say, instead of building a formal dining room, the focus is shifting to larger kitchen islands with seating. Also, builders are sacrificing primary bedrooms with walk-in closets and opting for another small bedroom. After all, as a real estate agent, I would see so many homes with wasted space and empty rooms that would just rarely ever realistically get used. Today, it just seems like that is a lot less common and builders are scaling back on some of the waste because they don't want to spend the extra money themselves either. Now, sure, some people could compare this to a budget airline.

who cuts cost 15% at the expans of cramming in extra seats and getting rid of an extra 3 in of leg room. But it does result in lower prices and more efficiency if that's what you're after. Personally though, I will say as someone who's lived in a four-bedroom home and a 900 ft one-bedroom duplex, in most places there's weird spaces that you just don't get use of, there's unnecessary square footage that you're paying for, and weird Dimensions that Builders typically create to maximize profit even though it serves you very little purpose. I think if most home buyers and Builders were honest with themselves, you probably need a lot less scare footage than you think. Most dining rooms to sit around collecting dust, living rooms and kitchens can often be combined in an open floor plan, and if you're looking to optimize instead of maximized resale value, I bet most homes could be a little bit more cohesive. Of course, I don't say this to defend home builders, but the reality is that extra sare footage that

you don't actively use gets very expensive. It's the reason you pay higher property taxes, higher insurance costs, and also higher utility bills. So if you could go without it and save some extra money, all things considered, I'd say it's worth it even though technically you end up paying a little bit more per square foot than before. The savings is probably there but overall though at the end of the day, outside of the few specific markets that have declined, nationally average prices have still risen 6.3% year-over-year. Existing homeowners are paying 21% more for insurance than they did just a few years ago, again due to higher building costs, and in the short term, that's unlikely to change anytime soon. The good news, however, is that there's a bit of a silver lining and that inventory is still steadily increasing from the pandemic low of 2021. But if interest rates go back down, there is the concern that'll spark more demand, which will push prices even higher than they are today. Although as far as what I

think about this. I certainly see the argument that lower interest rates are going to spark prices up even more, but I also think it might push a lot of people who are on the sidelines thinking about selling to actually go and sell. If the new mortgage rates match more closely with what they currently have, for example, most homeowners today would not want to give up a 3% mortgage in favor of a 7 and a half percent mortgage, but they might if interest rates go back down to 4 and a half percent. And that's where it gets a little dicey to me. This might just ease some inventory as builders continue to step in to fill demand, but it's just too soon to tell. Now, in terms of what you could actually do with all of this information, since up until now it's really just data, I would say in this market, only buy a home that you intend on keeping for at least 10 years that you could comfortably afford. Otherwise, there's just too many risks that I see in the short term with buying and selling a home that you don't intend on.

living in for a long time. Like, I tend to believe that if you're only looking for a place to live in for the next 1 to 7 years, research shows that renting is cheaper than buying throughout almost all of the United States. And other calculators show that it could often take between 10 to 20 years to break even when you account for the cost of buying versus that of renting and investing the difference. So plan accordingly, don't rush to buy something just for the sake of buying something. Recognize that renting throughout the United States is often a lot cheaper in the short term and be careful about what you lock yourself into. I'd also like to know what you think about all of this down below in the comment section, especially if you believe in the 18-year real estate cycle and if we're at the end of it. So if you leave a comment, that's great. I'll do my best to respond to as many of them as I can. Thank you so much. Reminder to hit the like button.

Housing Expert: “Why Home Prices Will Crash In 2026”

As a 30 year old real estate agent and investor who started working in real estate shortly after turning 18, with over $120,000,000 in residential real estate sales since 2008, I've created this channel to share my successes, failures, and experiences in the real estate industry and to support others who are thinking of getting into the business. Oh, and I'm also obsessed with cars. A lot. So expect to see some cars uploaded to my channel. A lot. And Subscribe. Because all the cool kids are doing it.  

Feel free to follow me on Snapchat / Instagram: GPStephan

Graham Stephan

일부 주요 시장에서는 재고 증가로 인해 주택 가격이 하락하고 있는 반면, 다른 지역에서는 계속해서 큰 폭의 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

부동산 시장은 예측 가능한 계절적 패턴을 따르며, 봄과 여름철에는 수요 증가로 인해 가격이 상승합니다.

현재는 가장 바쁜 시기에 대부분의 매매 활동이 이루어지기 때문에 주택을 계약하기 위한 경쟁이 치열할 것으로 예상됩니다.

18년 주기: 부동산 시장 붕괴 예측하기

주택 가격은 14년 상승, 4년 하락의 18년 주기를 따르며, 다음 폭락은 2026년에 예상됩니다.

이 사이클은 낮은 수요와 불확실성의 단계에 이어 수요 증가와 시장 과열로 이어지며, 이후 가격 하락으로 이어집니다.

영국의 부동산 경제학자 프레드 해리슨에 따르면, 이 사이클은 1800년대 후반부터 시장 붕괴를 정확하게 예측해 왔습니다.

개인 정보 보호: 놀라운 데이터 중개 비율

데이터 브로커가 개인 정보를 빠르게 판매하면서 개인정보 보호 문제와 잠재적 사기가 발생하고 있습니다.

코그니는 브로커의 개인 데이터 제거를 관리하고, 업데이트를 제공하며, 위험 부담 없는 평가판을 제공하는 솔루션을 제공합니다.

플로리다와 텍사스는 팬데믹 호황 이후 과포화 상태와 수요 감소로 인해 부동산 가치가 가장 크게 하락하고 있습니다.

부동산 시장 하락과 슈링크플레이션의 영향

2%의 가격 하락률로 미국 시장 중 1위를 차지했으며, 덴버, 시애틀, 캔자스시티, 오클라호마시티, 산호세가 그 뒤를 이었습니다.

맨해튼도 평균 판매 가격이 3% 하락하여 9.

8개월치 재고가 쌓여 있는 바이어스 마켓이 형성되고 있습니다.

주택 시장은 시간이 지남에 따라 평균 주택 규모는 증가하는 반면 평균 가구 수는 감소하여 가격 상승으로 이어지는 '슈링크플레이션'을 경험하고 있지만, 이제는 건축 비용 상승과 구매자의 경제성 하락에 대응하기 위해 소형 주택을 짓는 방향으로 전환하고 있습니다.

이제 건축업자들은 공간을 최적화하고 비용을 절감하기 위해 스타터 주택과 더 작고 저렴한 주택 옵션에 우선순위를 두고 있습니다.

이러한 변화에는 더 큰 주방 섬을 위해 정식 식당을 희생하고 효율성을 극대화하기 위해 침실 수를 줄이는 것도 포함됩니다.

이러한 변화에도 불구하고 전국 평균 주택 가격은 여전히 상승하고 있어 수요 증가에 따른 가격 상승에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

금리 인하가 주택 시장에 미치는 영향

금리가 낮아지면 주택 가격이 상승할 수도 있지만, 더 많은 사람들이 주택을 판매할 수도 있습니다.

이로 인해 건설업체가 수요를 충족시키면서 주택 재고가 완화될 수 있지만 장기적인 효과는 아직 불확실합니다.

현재 시장에서는 단기적으로는 임대가 더 저렴한 경우가 많으므로 최소 10년 이상 거주할 계획이 있는 경우에만 주택을 구입하는 것이 좋습니다.