한국 대도시의 부동산 시장 동향

### 한국의 부동산 시장 대도시의 전망과 주택 가격에 영향을 미치는 요인
* 🏙 발표자에 따르면 현재 부산, 창원, 대구, 대전, 울산 등 주요 광역시의 부동산 시장은 **울산이 가장 빠르고 대구와 부산이 뒤처지는 등 상대적으로 침체된 상황**입니다.
* 🏢 강원도 강릉, 춘천, 원주 등 소도시의 **주택 가격이 빠른 회복세**를 보이고 있습니다.
* 🏠 울산은 곧 개선될 것으로 예상되지만 **수요 감소**로 인해 임대 시장이 더디게 움직이고 있습니다.
* 📊 대도시의 경우 **장기 공급량과 누적 공급량, 임대 공급량과 공실률** 등을 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🔄 발표자는 대도시 지역의 주택 가격 하락을 예측하기는 어렵지만, **일단 가격이 상승하기 시작하면 그 모멘텀이 지속되는 경향**이 있다고 언급했습니다.
* 📈 연사는 주택 가격 상승은 **주택의 임대료 창출 능력**에서 비롯되며, 여기에는 지역의 특성과 수요와 공급이 중요한 역할을 한다고 강조했습니다.
* 🔒 연사는 자신이 분석한 **'집값 상승의 비밀'**을 암시했는데, 이는 몇 년 안에 **책으로 공개될 예정**입니다.
* 💰 저금리 시대가 막을 내리면서 시장은 **수요와 공급이라는 기본 원칙**으로 돌아갈 것으로 예상됩니다.

부산, 대구, 울산과 같은 광역시는 지역적 특성에 따라 다양한 부동산 회복률을 보이고 있습니다.

You showed an example using Jeonju in Mungyeong-ha. Now, the investment areas we are interested in are major metropolitan cities, right? Such as Busan, Changwon, Daegu, Daejeon, Ulsan, these kinds of places. How do you see the overall atmosphere in those areas? If we look at it from the perspective of major cities, the metropolitan cities are a bit slower right now. For example, Busan and Daegu are the slowest, followed by Busan and Ulsan being the fastest. Daejeon has already risen a bit, so there is quite a bit of supply now. We need to watch Daejeon a bit more. But I think there will be a rise together. As for the other regions, there may be some time differences, but they will all rise next year. You should see it that way. The difference lies in whether it rises in the first half of the year or the second half of the year. That's the only difference. In fact, people who talk about local areas are rarely on broadcasts. Nowadays, they don't really know much about the local areas.

Most people almost talk about the provinces, saying they are not interested in the provinces and talking as if the provinces are all dying. But yesterday, I showed you various things. The recovery rate of high-priced high points with carts. The provinces showed a higher rate. Shall I show you once? If you look, the top rankings from 1st to 8th are all provinces. It's interesting, right? We quietly rose like this. We used to look at Gangnam, but now the provinces are falling less. There are also cases like that. Recovery was a bit faster in small cities. Now, even in small cities like Gangwon Province, there is a trend of recovery, like Gangneung, Chuncheon, and Wonju. Small cities like these are showing a faster rise. The same goes for the provinces. Most small cities in Gyeongsangbuk-do are all rising, except for Daegu and Gyeongsan. Recovery is fast for those areas, so I think that's why the statistics came out like that. How about Gwangju and Ulsan? Gwangju will soon improve. There is too little supply in Gwangju. Ulsan will improve soon.

Ulsan is the fastest, and there are no vacancies left. Ulsan will start at the end of this year or at the beginning of next year at the latest. Large companies will make a lot of money, right? But Ulsan has its own characteristics. Ulsan has a high building rate, so the city looks taller. However, the demand for lease is a bit low. The structure created by the lease is a bit slower compared to other cities. It takes a while to build, but once it's built, it goes quickly. That's the characteristic. Each region has its own characteristics. The demand for lease is low because people are buying houses. They need to gather in lease, but now the lease is creating the market. Since the demand for lease is low, it takes a bit of time to create it. However, looking at the supply, it should already be rising, but it moves a bit slowly for that reason. Oh, you need to study the regional characteristics well. As for Daegu, Daegu needs a bit more time.

I want to buy, but Megal is rising a lot on top of places like Suseong-gu. Since the jeonse price is rising, it has to go up, so you have to pass that. Daegu has a lot of supply that needs to be absorbed. It should be next year. Busan is the same. The supply in Busan has decreased a bit, but even though the supply is low, there is a lot of existing inventory, so it seems to need some time to digest. Therefore, I think Busan will be a bit faster than Daegu. In terms of prices, Marydae has more in Daegu. When you look at the prices, Daegu is a bit faster. Also, when you look at the supply, Busan is faster. So, it's similar. Suseong-gu is not cheap. Suseong-gu has increased a lot from the peak to the bottom. Consider other places besides Suseong-gu. It's scary. It's okay. It's a metropolitan city with 2 million people. Uh, Daegu.

Don't ignore that. Yes, there are areas that play a central role in the market structure. It always gets better there. When I visited a real estate agency in Daegu, some people said, Daegu has Line 2, doesn't it? Investing in Line 2 like this man. But excluding Suseong-gu, what do you think is the second and third best areas from an investment perspective? Line 2, not Line A, is still the best. When I give lectures, I organize the order, but looking at the whole picture, Line 2 is the best. Some people look towards the Dongdaegu area, and some towards Banwoldang, right? There are also those who look at that area. After transportation, the area with the highest prices maintained is Line 2, which spans across China. That's the best. Prices will rise there.

It's okay to exclude that. The accumulated supply in the regions fits well. However, it fits best in metropolitan cities. When it comes to smaller cities, the probability drops a bit. When I analyze this data, it seems correct to look at the long-term accumulated supply in the capital area. Oh, the long-term accumulated supply. I look at two of them. One is the supply in three years, and I compare the two. By comparing the two, I observe how the overall housing prices move. Now, in the capital area, since the scale is large, the supply has a significant impact on the market. It's like the time it takes to fill a container, right? It's about whether it's decreasing or increasing. In metropolitan cities and small cities, the time it takes to fill is faster in small cities. This time, the supply will be the fastest.

I felt that here, the reason why Sodosi's region is rising a bit faster is because of this, you know. Oh, what? In Mungyeong, Jeonju, earlier, because the market environment that involves a shortage of supply is better here. It moves faster, you know. And then, this varies by region. Ulsan was quite scarce, while Daegu had a lot, Busan had a lot, and there were cars. Yes, now, in the metropolitan area, the metropolitan area needs to consider the supply for three years and the total cumulative supply together. And then, you also need to look at the rental supply and the rental rate together. There are more things to consider. You need to look at the overall environment together because you can't just focus on a specific region. So, it's difficult for us to predict the rise in the metropolitan area, but it's difficult to predict the decline. Once it rises, the energy keeps going up.

It's easy, but it takes a lot of time to put all that energy there and create a certain environment, which is not easy to find. In fact, that's why I made a judgment mistake this time. I thought I would go down, so from 23 to 22, we were supposed to do it until the first half of 22, 23, 24, 25. If it falls down, I thought I would start rising again. I thought of it like this. I thought of it as one cycle. But this rose too quickly, fell too quickly, and now it's coming really fast, urgently, and rapidly. Because it's coming rapidly again, it's like connecting this as one cycle. Right now, there is a duty to do this a bit. We still have some quests remaining. We need to think about it a bit. The speed seems too fast. Really, that's why.

Do you think about it? The lease, unlike the past, maybe it's not a long cycle of rise and fall in the metropolitan area, but rather, like in local areas, it may have short-term ups and downs. I once thought about it. Why did I think so? Well, I thought that because of the high lease prices. In the past, when it fell, the lease rates in places like Gangnam dropped by around 30%. Now it has stopped at around 40% and is rising. In Seoul and the metropolitan area, the overall lease rates used to drop by around 40%, but now they have stopped at 50% to 60%. It's close to 50%. Now, in the entire metropolitan area, it's about 60%. If it's at such a high level, when it moves, the range of movement is very fast. It goes up and down in a very short time, accelerating. Even in local areas, like small cities, the lease rates are at 70% to 80%. Then it moves quickly, extinguishes quickly.

When it comes to back and forth, this is about the lease price. What's interesting is that it represents the future of our housing market. If you elaborate more on the future, it would be great. The lease rate indicates the limit of growth. Do you know where the growth in the housing market comes from? As I mentioned earlier, I compared it to stocks. The growth comes from the ability of the housing to produce. What is that ability? It's not the lease price, not 10 billion or 20 billion won, but the lease price growth rate. How much is the growth rate? Do you know where the highest is? In Seoul, it's 7.8% every year. Every year, 7.8%. On average, according to statistics from 1986 to 23, of course, in the middle, it goes up. Seoul is the first, so it increases the most up to the sale.

Put it in, and the metropolitan area is 6%, 5% in the latter half, when it goes back and forth, it becomes 4%, 3%. The future cash flow is quite small. A low growth rate means that if the Jeonse (lease deposit) growth rate is high, we will receive a lot in the future, so as the Jeonse increases, the Jeonse will be taken. We think like this. If the Jeonse growth rate is high, the Jeonse will stick. On the contrary, if the Jeonse growth rate is high, the market will expand. Do you understand? Opposite. Because the Jeonse growth in the provinces is low, there is no way for the mega to go up. It won't be reflected. It won't be reflected, so it sticks exactly. It feels a bit like a dividend stock, right? We won't receive future cash flow. It's only 3% in the future cash flow. This one is 7%. That 7% is reflected, so Seoul is far away, and going small is because we are in the provinces. That's MBD, dividend stocks. But now, above that, Mega is a bit of a dividend stock, right?

Multiple, multiple, multiple, yes, there are places where multiples are far away. Gangnam in Seoul. That's right. Yes, the place we are going is in our region. They give a lot of multiples because there is growth potential. That's why it spreads. It spreads, yes, it spreads a lot. Gangnam has a high spread. Yes, it's the same principle. Who decided that? It was determined by the increase in housing lease prices. So, how does the increase in housing lease prices come out? It comes from income and new income. They are connected, demand and income. There is another plus, alpha. This is the region's characteristics. The region's characteristics include a lot of tourism cities. Industries or tourism. Here, another plus, alpha is included. Even if there are the same population in the same city, tourism is included.

There are cities that are doing well. The rent has increased significantly. Which city could it be? For example, think about a city that is well-known for tourism and where we often visit for fun. Even if it's the same city, there is Sokcho. Sokcho has a population of only about 100,000. Probably, a city with a population of 100,000 is just right globally. Sokcho is the best when it comes to that. Many people visit Sokcho for tourism. Agree? Sokcho has the highest demand and the highest supply. It has the most transactions. That's the city to invest in. Usually, when the population is the same, the same amount of transactions and rental transactions come out. It's fascinating how they all come out the same. Now, where is the most representative place? Gangneung or Bukbu. These two are surprisingly similar. The rent prices are the same. Oh, yes, the sales listings are the same too. Gangwon-do has a population...

It's 1,520,000 won, and it's 1,590,000 won. Chungbuk is similar. However, Gangwon Province had a larger population in the 1990s than now, less than China. This is decreasing, while this is increasing. It increased in the middle. Meeting in the middle, they created demand and supply. What they created are removal houses. There are 320,000 here and 340,000 there. It's the same in terms of population ratio, it's 20:4. The average trading volume is 2,900 here and 2,800 there. But in March, the trading volume is 1,564 and 1,626. When calculated as a ratio, it's 7.48 and 7.4, the same. This is without investors entering at the moment, just taking out the existing amount. It's off by 0.04 at the end. It's quite amazing, isn't it? Right, lease prices, how are they?

In April, the average monthly rent here is 2,000, and here it is 18,000. Here, now in April, it's 2,100. Here, it's a bit more, right? It's not Chungbuk, it's a bit less. Yes, here is a bit more. Where is a good market? Where is good? Gangwon Province is good, right? Gangwon Province is currently going up, you see? The reason Gangwon Province is going up is one thing. They are all the same, but here, this one thing, the rent, should we take a look at it once? The listings are now out. The listings are at 1,200. Oh, 15,230 listings for rent. Take a look at the rent once. Rent at 2,000, 2,100, and 80. It's amazing, right? No matter how much the government tries, no matter what they do, the market functions as it is. Listings come out, rents come out, supply is balanced. It just naturally balances out. The balance is perfectly in place now. But where is it breaking? It broke here, didn't it?

The jeonse is broken, isn't it? Going up here, that's a strong exercise. So, as I mentioned, starting from jeonse, this market is being built now. Trading is just a result of the phenomenon. So, we need to look at the inventory. Our inventory is now 82,000 in Seoul, 82,000 is the maximum, they say it's a collapse. If there are people who shouted the collapse, I want to tell them to take a look at this. It seems like they might not be able to interpret this. They can't interpret this. Look at this. For jeonse and trading to increase by two, it's the same. This is all about demand. Here, I extracted all the demand. In my book, it comes out in the back of the book. It goes into the professional section behind me. Yes, the national demand. All the demand we created like this goes in. If you disclose the national demand, are you scared? It's not partially disclosed, it's all over the country. We did it all over the country, but only the main part goes in the first edition. It doesn't go into the second edition. It only goes into the first edition, not the second edition. It's like a special block like this.

I'm going into a separate chapter. There is no link yet, and I haven't seen any content. In the end, it's called the secret of rising house prices. It seems like a book is coming out after a few years. It came out after 5 years. So, in the first edition, they broke the demand with a special program. Oh, the expression is a bit low. I shared the data I analyzed about demand. It seems like it will be out in no time, but the government implemented policies like the lease protection law. When they increase the supply, after about 6 months or a year, the market returns to its original state. Originally, what functions does the market have? Through those functions, the demand in the area, the supply in the area, the number of properties, and the properties that people put up for sale in certain houses, all create the market. That's how the market works and changes.

It starts with the external supply coming in. When that comes in, the justification of the jeonse starts, and the market is created. This is what is happening now. The era of interest rates is ending, and it is now returning to demand and supply. The fundamental starting point of demand and supply is the jeonse. But jeonse also needs to rise. The second is that it should come from the supply instability. It should come from the supply instability. It is connected, so it continues or lasts for 2 to 3 years. But if the interest rates are not connected, whether they stop or fall, or go the other way, it is connected. So, we can now put our minds to it and make choices. It becomes comfortable for 2 to 3 years. So, that is the role played in the supply.

지금이 내집마련 타이밍인 이유와 전국 집값 전망ㅣ김준영 3부 [후랭이TV]

후랭이TV는 부동산을 비롯한 각종 투자에 대한 이야기를 전문가와 함께 풀어가는 채널입니다.
부동산, 주식, 재테크 등 돈 되는 이야기를 통해 경제적 자유를 이룰 수 있도록 도와드리겠습니다.
여러분의 경제적 자유를 위해 움직이겠습니다.^^

『묻지마 투기꾼이 아닌 공부하는 투자자가 되겠습니다』

비즈니스 문의는 이메일로 주시기 바랍니다.
고맙습니다.

후랭이TV

현재 국내 주요 광역시의 전반적인 분위기는 대구와 부산이 가장 느리고, 울산이 가장 빠른 속도로 상승하고 있습니다.

대전은 공급량이 크게 늘면서 소폭 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

이들 지역의 상승세는 시기의 차이는 있지만 내년부터 본격화될 것으로 예상됩니다.

지방 중소도시의 회복과 상승세가 대도시를 앞지르고 있는 가운데 광주와 울산은 울산만의 특성과 임대 수요 둔화에도 불구하고 곧 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.

대구와 부산의 부동산 시장 동향

전셋값 상승으로 대구와 부산의 부동산 시장이 들썩이고 있는 가운데 대구의 가격 상승 속도가 더 빠를 것으로 예상됩니다.

부산은 주택 공급이 줄고 있지만 기존 재고가 많아 조정에 시간이 걸릴 것으로 보여 대구 시장이 더 빠를 것으로 보입니다.

수성구와 2호선 일대가 잠재력이 있지만, 이들 지역을 제외하면 동대구와 반월당이 차선책으로 투자할 만한 지역으로 꼽힌다.

부동산 시장 역학 관계의 급격한 변화

한국의 부동산 시장은 높은 임대료로 인해 급격하고 급박한 변동을 겪고 있습니다.

한국의 지역마다 수요와 공급의 역학관계가 다르기 때문에 특히 지방의 경우 단기적인 상승과 하락을 반복하고 있습니다.

서울을 포함한 수도권의 경우 임대료가 50~60%에 머물러 있어 시장의 움직임이 빠르고 예측하기 어렵다는 점이 특징입니다.

임대료가 미래 주택 시장에 미치는 영향

서울의 주택 임대 가격은 연간 7.

8%의 높은 성장률을 보이며 시장 확대를 주도하고 있습니다.

주택 임대 가격의 성장은 미래 현금 흐름과 지역의 성장 잠재력, 특히 강남과 같은 지역의 성장 잠재력과 관련이 있습니다.

또한 임대 가격의 상승은 수요, 소득, 관광 및 산업 등 각 지역의 고유한 특성에도 영향을 받습니다.

속초와 강릉의 부동산 시장 분석

인구 약 10만 명의 도시인 속초는 부동산 시장의 수요와 공급이 균형을 이루고 있어 투자하기 좋은 지역입니다.

속초와 비슷한 임대료와 매물을 보유한 강릉 역시 균형 잡힌 시장을 보이고 있습니다.

강원도에 위치한 두 도시는 인구와 주택 가격의 변화를 보이고 있으며, 속초는 소폭 상승 추세를 보이고 있어 부동산 시장의 잠재적 핫스팟으로 떠오르고 있습니다.

전세가 주택 시장에 미치는 영향

서울 주택 시장은 높은 수요에 힘입어 전셋값과 거래량이 크게 증가하고 있습니다.

집값 상승은 수요와 공급의 불균형에 기인하며, 정부는 이를 해소하기 위한 정책을 시행하고 있습니다.

금리 시대에서 수요와 공급이라는 근본적인 원리로 초점이 이동하면서 궁극적으로 전세의 역할에도 영향을 미쳐 시장이 안정화될 것으로 예상됩니다.