금리 역전 장기화의 경제적 영향

### 장기화된 금리 역전 현상과 그 의미에 대한 이해
* 📉 장단기 금리의 역전은 일반적으로 비정상적인 경제 상황을 나타내는 드문 현상이며, **2022년 이후 이러한 상황이 지속**되면서 미국 정부나 연방준비제도(연준)의 조작 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.
* 📊 일반적으로 대출 기간이 길어질수록 불확실성이 커지기 때문에 장기 금리가 단기 금리보다 높아야 하지만, **단기 금리가 장기 금리를 초과하는 현재의 역전 현상**은 중요한 경기 신호를 나타냅니다.
* 🔮 역사적으로 이자율 스프레드가 마이너스를 기록하면 투자자들이 경제 성장 둔화를 예상하고 더 안전한 장기 채권을 요구하여 장기 금리가 낮아지기 때문에 **경기 침체로 이어질 확률이 80%**에 달합니다.
* 🏦 연준의 결정은 현재의 인플레이션과 고용 데이터를 기반으로 하지만, 연준의 정책이 잘못 판단되어 **금융 시장을 더욱 왜곡하는 고금리 장기화에 대한 우려**로 이어질 수 있습니다.
* 💵 현재 진행 중인 역전 현상은 **과거 연준의 장기 금리 인하 시도가 비정상적인 환경**을 초래했던 양적완화 조치를 연상시키는 금융시장의 왜곡을 반영합니다.
* 📉 또한, 경제에 자금을 투입하기 위한 과도한 국채 발행은 경제 흐름을 인위적으로 방해하여 **금리 역전 현상이 지속되는 원인**이 될 수 있습니다.
* ⚠ 전반적으로 수익률 곡선의 역전 현상이 장기화되면 **경기 침체 가능성**을 포함해 경제에 심각한 위험을 초래할 수 있으며, 불확실한 금융 환경에서 신중한 투자 전략이 필요하다는 점을 강조합니다.

금리 역전 현상이 장기화되면 경기 침체가 임박할 가능성이 높으므로 신중한 투자 전략이 요구됩니다.

The phenomenon of short-term and long-term interest rate inversion occurs only in very abnormal economic situations. However, it is now August 2024, and the abnormal situation has persisted for too long since 2022. There is a high possibility that the U.S. government or the Federal Reserve is artificially manipulating the economy. Therefore, we could face a serious situation, and today we will focus on this topic. Nowadays, people tend to trust the information provided by artificial intelligence in searches and responses. So, I have brought in some questions regarding the phenomenon of interest rate inversion. After reading them, I will provide additional explanations.

The situation where the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates remains negative is considered abnormal and can reflect concerns about the economy and financial markets. Traditionally, long-term interest rates should be higher than short-term rates, and the reason is that long-term bonds reflect uncertainties over a longer period.

Investors demand higher returns. However, when short-term and long-term interest rates invert and remain in that state for an extended period, it is interpreted as an abnormal signal for the economy. When such a situation arises, it usually has the following implications. Traditionally, long-term interest rates should be higher than short-term rates. Do you understand this by analogy? When we think about lending money to someone, if they ask to borrow for just one month, the volatility of interest rates is likely to be low, and the possibility of sudden economic changes within that month is minimal. So, if I can lend for just one month at around 5% per year, that is manageable. However, if that person asks to borrow money for 20 years, the problem is that we cannot predict how interest rates will change in the future, and the person borrowing the money could potentially pass away during those 20 years. Then, we might not be able to recover our money.

If you lend money for 20 years, of course, you would refuse if someone asks to borrow it for that long. However, if that person offers to pay an interest rate of 20% per year, you might consider lending it. After about five years, the principal would be paid off. In normal circumstances, it is better to lend money for the long term, like 10 or 20 years, because you would receive much higher interest. Similarly, when we take out loans, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate tends to be. This is the normal situation. 

However, when we talk about the inversion of short-term and long-term interest rates, it means that when lending or borrowing money for 10 or 20 years, the interest rate is around 4%. On the other hand, if you borrow or lend for just one month, the interest rate is 5%. This means that the interest for short-term borrowing is actually higher, which is completely abnormal. Such abnormal situations can occur temporarily depending on the economic conditions.

It can happen in a short period, but for it to continue for about two years like it has since 2022 has three significant meanings according to ChatGPT. The first meaning is that it signals a recession. Historically, when the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates turns negative, it has been seen as a sign of an economic downturn. Investors anticipate that future economic growth will slow down, leading to an increased demand for safer long-term bonds, which causes long-term interest rates to fall. On the other hand, short-term interest rates are more influenced by the central bank's interest rate policies, which can keep them relatively higher. This results in an inverted yield curve. To explain this simply, think of a chart where you subtract short-term interest rates from long-term rates. The situation above is normal, and if it moves downward, it indicates that short-term rates are actually higher, which is an inverted situation.

The data spans approximately 44 years from 1980 to the present. If you look at our previous videos, there is one that analyzes data over a 100-year period, but I can't find that image since it was recorded a long time ago. To explain it verbally, historically, when the long-term and short-term interest rates inverted and entered a negative state, there was an 80% probability that a recession followed. In most cases, a recession occurred, while in the remaining 20%, things went on without any incident. However, those instances happened either when interest rates were extremely low, or when the economy was deteriorating, or when the Federal Reserve and the government preemptively lowered interest rates or implemented quantitative easing policies to respond proactively to the recession, allowing things to pass without any issues. So, what does that mean?

In August 2024, this is the right side of the chart. The inversion has been in place for a very long time. While we don't know exactly when it will happen, the probability of a recession following this inversion is about 80%. However, there is a 20% chance that everything could pass without any issues. This could occur if the Federal Reserve suddenly lowers the benchmark interest rate to an extremely low level or if the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve inject a significant amount of money into the economy, disregarding inflation concerns. If that happens, everything could go smoothly. But in other scenarios, the likelihood of a recession occurring is very, very high. This is simply the reality. Of course, history does not always repeat itself, and I cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy, so different situations could unfold. However, the current situation of the yield curve inversion, as depicted in the chart, is historically significant.

When looking at the facts, this is exactly how we analyze the situation. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on the benchmark interest rate and whether the Fed will purchase government bonds. The Federal Reserve is an institution that aims to stabilize prices in the U.S. and achieve maximum employment. On the other hand, long-term government bond investors have a different stance than the Fed; they simply seek profit. When we purchase U.S. government bonds, we do not do so to fulfill responsibilities for price stability and maximum employment. No, we are just trying to make a profit. However, when we gain profits from investing in U.S. long-term government bonds, we refer to the relationship between the yield on government bonds and the benchmark interest rate. For instance, if we invest in the yield of 10-year government bonds, then the yield on 10-year government bonds...

If we look down, when interest rates decrease, bond prices rise, resulting in profits. However, if you look at the chart, the base interest rate is shown in green, and the orange line represents the 10-year government bond yield. Ultimately, the long-term yield of 10-year government bonds moves according to the base interest rate. Although they do not move in sync in the short term, in the larger trend, it follows the base interest rate. Therefore, when we invest in long-term government bonds and make a profit, it is likely that the base interest rate has fallen first. Then, the yield on government bonds will gradually decrease as well, leading to potential profits. When an economic recession occurs, if you look at the green base interest rate, it drops significantly, and subsequently, the long-term government bond yield also falls. In such cases, there can be rapid and significant profits. These are the two scenarios where substantial profits can be realized. The current situation is also...

If you look to the right, you can see the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, which is 5.5% in green. However, the yield on government bonds is much lower than that. This means that the interest rate for borrowing money in the short term is lower than the rate for borrowing over 10 or 20 years. As I explained earlier with ChatGPT, this indicates that many investors expect the U.S. economy to slow down or enter a recession in the future. Therefore, government bond investors are betting that interest rates will fall in anticipation of economic slowdown and recession. They are investing in long-term government bonds, which yield significant profits when rates drop, and they are not selling much; instead, they are buying more. This results in a situation where the yields on government bonds are lower than the benchmark interest rate. In the case of government bonds, as the price of the bonds decreases, the yield on those bonds increases.

It means that interest rates are moving in the opposite direction. However, the fact that government bond yields are not rising significantly indicates that government bond prices are not falling much. This is how you should understand it. This is precisely the reason why the inversion of short-term and long-term interest rates continues to occur. I share the same opinion as long-term government bond investors; there is a high likelihood that economic slowdown and recession will occur in the future. Therefore, everyone is aware that we are managing risk by increasing our cash and bond allocations. 

Now, the second implication of the prolonged inversion of short-term and long-term interest rates, as GPT indicates, is the possibility of failure in the central bank's monetary policy. This is similar to the first context, where investors are concerned about future economic slowdown and recession, and they also expect that inflation will decelerate, leading them to buy long-term government bonds. However, to take it a step further, the central bank may be misjudging the situation.

What this means is that there are concerns that inflation will worsen in the future, which leads to the central bank maintaining interest rates at a very high level. In such cases, the inversion of short-term and long-term interest rates can persist. However, the Federal Reserve is currently making decisions on interest rates based on the released inflation and employment data. They are not making separate predictions, so it’s a bit ambiguous to say whether the Federal Reserve is doing well or poorly. They are strictly relying on the data. Of course, stock investors always claim that the Federal Reserve has failed in its policies. This is because when the stock market drops, they think the Federal Reserve should have lowered interest rates sooner to prevent the decline. However, the Federal Reserve is not an institution that exists to boost the stock market; it exists to ensure price stability and maximum employment, so it naturally operates differently from the stock market.

Decisions can emerge, as seen in 2001, 2008, and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The stock market plummeted sharply along with the economic recession. However, the Federal Reserve does not respond immediately. Although the economy is indeed in a recession, they lower interest rates and implement quantitative easing, which helps revive the stock market after it has already crashed. 

Regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, GPT-2 suggests that they may be failing or making incorrect judgments. It's a bit difficult to comment on this matter right now. The abnormal inversion of short-term and long-term interest rates indicates a third implication concerning the potential distortion in financial markets. 

To explain how financial markets have been distorted: maintaining a prolonged negative spread between short-term and long-term interest rates can indicate a distortion in the financial market. This is reminiscent of past unconventional measures like quantitative easing.

Various factors can influence monetary policy, such as artificially keeping long-term interest rates low or investors becoming more risk-averse due to global uncertainty. In such situations, financial markets operate in an abnormal environment rather than a normal interest rate structure. This is explained by the Federal Reserve's attempts to lower long-term interest rates by purchasing long-term government bonds or adjusting rates in some way. This phenomenon can occur even under these circumstances. It should be interpreted in this way, especially with the term non-traditional quantitative easing coming into play, which is something we need to consider. We should reflect on why the financial market has become distorted. In the past, when a recession occurred, the primary response was to lower the benchmark interest rate, which was the most common form of response. Therefore, money was injected. This is related to the Federal Reserve's open market operations account.

After the financial crisis in 2008, suddenly, the assets began to rise. These assets include U.S. Treasury bonds and MBS, which are mortgage-backed securities, being purchased in large quantities. As a result, the Federal Reserve had to distribute the dollars it held, referred to as QE1. Starting from 2008, this money supply expansion began, but when COVID-19 hit, even more money was injected into the economy. Many scholars had opposed this unconventional quantitative easing, expressing concerns about potential side effects in the future. However, at that time, these side effects did not manifest immediately. When the pandemic occurred in 2020, even larger amounts of money were released. Now, the side effects are becoming apparent, with inflation being extremely serious and a prolonged inversion of the yield curve.

This is a representative side effect of the ongoing situation. Therefore, we can only say that a distortion in the financial market has occurred. Furthermore, ChatGPT talks about changes in investor sentiment, which aligns with the previous content. Investors view the future negatively, anticipating a recession or slowdown, which leads them to purchase long-term government bonds. As a result, the interest rates on long-term government bonds become lower than those on short-term government bonds. This is the situation being described. 

Moreover, there are issues that do not occur under normal circumstances, which many experts are also discussing. They point out that there is something artificially causing economic slowdown and recession. Specifically, the U.S. government is excessively issuing government bonds to inject money into the economy, thereby artificially obstructing the economic flow. This is why the abnormal inversion of long-term and short-term interest rates continues.

In conclusion, what ChatGPT mentioned is that the inversion of the yield curve between short-term and long-term interest rates does not occur under normal circumstances. It happens during times of severe economic stress or when central bank policies are at odds with reality. If such abnormal situations persist for an extended period, they can lead to serious economic problems like a recession, so caution is necessary. 

Looking at the overall picture, since 2008, there has been continuous unconventional monetary easing, and even more money was injected after the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to various side effects. Additionally, the excessive issuance of government bonds and the manipulation of the economy through monetary expansion, along with long-term bond investors' concerns about a recession who continue to buy long-term bonds, and the possibility of policy missteps by the central bank—all these factors are working together to create the current abnormal yield curve situation.

The inversion phenomenon has been continuing for quite some time now. The result of this could likely lead to serious situations such as an economic recession. When explaining this, you might think that only the opinions of the bulls and bears are relevant, but that's not the case. This is the Nasdaq index. In the long term, individuals can achieve sufficient returns just by investing in indices like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. However, if you invest near the peak of an overheated market, like in 2022 before the stock market crashed, it might be manageable if there is an immediate rebound. But if you bought during the IT bubble collapse in 1999 or 2000, it took 15 years just to recover your principal. The tulip mania, the dot-com bubble, and the subprime mortgage crisis are examples of this.

If you are investing in overheated stocks, it takes too long to recover to the previous peak or to regain the principal amount. Therefore, it is crucial to avoid such risky periods and invest long-term to achieve significant profits. So, is there a way to avoid those risks? At the very least, the stock market moves according to the growth rate of the real economy. This has been validated by hundreds of years of research. We should pass through periods where the leading indicators for the real economy have sufficiently risen and then see a slowdown in growth. At that time, the stock market might be going through its peak overheating phase. Thus, it is statistically wise to avoid these periods and manage risk. After passing through such times or after a crash, if you accumulate investments and engage in long-term investing, anyone can make money. Therefore, let's follow this conventional wisdom: invest long-term in well-diversified assets.

However, it is important to avoid overheating as much as possible. If possible, it is best to focus on investing when there has been a significant drop; this is the most validated and standard method. Our channel will continue to monitor economic indicators and explain this aspect further. When the comment section is open, there are often many sarcastic and negative responses to strong opinions, making it difficult to share such views when the comments are open. However, now that we have completely blocked those negative opinions, we can confidently continue to discuss these topics.

I hope this helps you in your investment decisions. You may raise counterarguments, and I always say that everyone’s opinions are valid. However, my opinion is also valid, and since our thoughts can differ, if your views are similar, please take them into consideration. If they are different, just acknowledge that there are alternative perspectives.

I hope you enjoy watching the videos on this channel. There are truly pure-hearted individuals who support us intermittently, and I want to express my gratitude to those who have contributed. In the past, I have only mentioned my thanks verbally, but I felt that it wasn't enough as a human being, so I have been trying to engage more. It's not anything grand, but you can consider it a reaction to the support. We discuss macroeconomics, the cycles of various industries, and how certain stocks move in relation to these factors. We dedicate time to communicate about these topics, including sensitive discussions that are hard to address in a broadcast. For those who have supported us, I will ensure we have a time for communication every day. Then, starting in 2019, I began my YouTube journey. Unfortunately, in 2019, economic indicators started to show signs of slowing down, and that was when cash flow became a concern.

It was claimed that YouTube does not filter out extreme sarcasm and insults. Listening to such content became particularly overwhelming after the outbreak of COVID-19, especially since the stock market had dropped. If COVID-19 had not happened, we might have faced unbearable demands. So, among the risky assets that have generated profits, since there is a 50/50 probability, it is advisable to realize half of the profits and transfer them to bond-type assets to prepare for any potential risks. The remaining half of the assets should be kept intact to avoid missing out on gains if a trade agreement is reached.

Currently, there is a significant rise in expectations regarding certain U.S. and emerging market assets. It is appropriate to realize profits and respond to the next situation. As you asked, I mentioned several times to buy at the lows around March or April 2020 after the COVID-19 outbreak.

How can you fan the flames in a burning house? How lucky am I to have some cash on hand? Are you suggesting that I should buy in this crashing market? People will get furious. Market crashes like this have always happened. And as time passes, the problems have always been resolved. Despite this, the economy has continued to grow, and more money has been injected into the market. Ultimately, this issue will also be resolved, and those who waited will end up making money. I’m not always a person who advocates for buying stocks. Even just before this decline, during December and January, when the stock market was doing well, I faced sarcastic comments asking why I bought bonds. Some people claimed I was lying, so I had to disclose my actual account management records to prove that manipulation is impossible.

I confirmed it for you. So, how is it now? During this recent stock market decline, I have been buying in installments, and I am still doing so. I often see sarcastic comments about how I still view things very positively. In March, April, and May of 2022, when there were significant profits, I suggested that we should cash out, and I received a lot of backlash for that. Since then, the comments have been quite harsh. However, recently, the stock prices have surged significantly. Even if we don't reach the peak from last December, if you look now, most of the price range from December last year is back, as indicated by the red box. Since 2020, I have openly started investing in tech stocks. But lately, the pace of interest rate hikes has been very fast due to inflation. Therefore, I expect to see some profits between this year and next year.

We need to realize and cash out. This is our current policy. However, the stock prices move differently for each individual item, as the issues and the contents within them vary. So rather than having a uniform standard like selling everything when the base interest rate is 2.4, each stock has its own price expectations and issues. If we can receive a premium of about this much and feel it's a peak, then we should cash out sometime between this year and next year. If there’s a crash, we can buy back in again. This is the direction of our channel. 

Now, there is a problem. ASML and Nvidia are in the same situation. If interest rates rise too high, companies will need to take loans, but the loan interest rates will increase. This makes it difficult to invest, and as a result, the performance of these companies may worsen. Therefore, if interest rates rise too quickly until next year, a cycle may come to an end.

There may be a need to organize things. I'm saying this because, in 2022, what happened was that I tried to sell in parts, but due to a sudden drop, I couldn't sell and ended up holding onto everything. So, in 2023, as expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts grew, I was often criticized when I suggested selling during the stock market's rebound. I had expected that the point at which interest rate hikes would be paused would be in the first half of this year, possibly around the second half, but there are so many variables right now that it keeps getting pushed back. Many experts are saying that it might be around next year. Regardless, when that time comes, there could be a rebound, but historically, there have been many instances of this happening repeatedly. So, if a rebound occurs, I will also need to organize my holdings a bit.

I plan to do this, but the real economy is currently slowing down after reaching its peak. At times like this, when inflation decreases and interest rate hikes are halted, I have mentioned this for a long time and have shown you the indicators continuously. Historically, the stock market has often experienced temporary rallies. Therefore, I keep saying that the likelihood of the stock market entering an upward trend is very high. However, this is not the right time for aggressive buying; that's not the principle. In 2023, the same situation applies. Since the leading indicators of the real economy are slowing down, I keep advising caution. Yet, the stock market did not crash in 2013, and even now, it is still facing a lot of criticism. When the green line hits the bottom and starts to rise sharply, that is when one should actively buy.

Whether stock prices rise or fall in a short period, regardless of volatility, it’s important to hold on tightly. This is a time when things tend to flatten out. It’s a period when growth is significantly declining. The problem is that when a recession hits, if you're unlucky, your account could be cut in half or even lose a significant portion in just a minute.

역대급으로 긴 장기금리와 단기금리 역전현상! 경제의 비정상 상태가 오래되면 경기침체가 온다

피셔인베스트

장단기 금리의 역전 현상은 2022년 이후 지속되고 있으며, 이는 잠재적으로 경기 조작 가능성이 있음을 나타냅니다.

단기 금리가 장기 금리보다 높은 이러한 비정상적인 상황은 전통적으로 경기 침체가 임박했다는 신호로 간주됩니다.

역사적으로 이러한 금리 역전은 정부와 연방준비제도의 적극적인 개입으로 인한 몇 가지 예외를 제외하고는 경기 침체로 이어질 확률이 80%에 달했습니다.

수익률 곡선 역전 현상이 지속되고 있으며, 경기침체가 발생할 확률은 80%입니다.

기준금리가 갑자기 인하되거나 정부가 크게 개입하면 경기침체 위험을 완화할 수 있습니다.

투자자들이 경기 둔화를 예상하고 장기 채권을 매수하면서 금리가 역전되는 현상이 지속되고 있기 때문에 국채 수익률과 기준금리 간의 관계는 매우 중요합니다.

금리 및 금융 시장에 미치는 연방준비제도의 영향

인플레이션 악화에 대한 우려로 연방준비제도이사회가 고금리를 유지하면서 장단기 금리의 역전 현상이 지속되고 있습니다.

연준의 결정은 발표된 인플레이션 및 고용 데이터에만 근거하기 때문에 그 효과를 평가하는 데 모호한 부분이 있습니다.

장기간의 마이너스 금리 스프레드로 인해 금융 시장이 왜곡되고 있으며, 연준의 비전통적인 조치와 국채 발행은 지속적인 경기 둔화와 불황에 기여하고 있습니다.

수익률 곡선 역전이 경제에 미치는 영향

단기 금리와 장기 금리 간 수익률 곡선이 역전되는 것은 비정상적인 현상이며, 경제 위기나 중앙은행 정책이 상충할 때 자주 발생합니다.

2008년 이후 비전통적인 통화 완화와 과도한 국채 발행이 현재의 비정상적인 수익률 곡선 상황에 기여하여 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

잘 분산된 자산에 장기 투자하고 과열된 시장을 피하는 것이 투자 위험을 관리하고 상당한 수익을 달성하는 핵심 전략입니다.

YouTube 여정에서 얻은 감사와 인사이트

이 채널의 크리에이터는 후원자들에게 감사를 표하고 소통의 중요성을 강조합니다.

거시경제, 산업 사이클, 주식 움직임에 대해 논의하고 경기 침체기에 개인 투자 전략도 공유합니다.

크리에이터는 최근 시장 하락기에 주식을 분할 매수하고 있으며 올해와 내년 사이에 기술주 투자로 수익을 거둘 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

현재 정책은 일률적인 기준이 아닌 개별 주가 예상에 따라 현금화하는 것입니다.

금리 상승은 ASML이나 Nvidia와 같은 기업에 부정적인 영향을 미쳐 투자를 어렵게 만들고 잠재적으로 실적을 악화시킬 수 있습니다.

주식 시장은 일시적인 상승세를 보일 것으로 예상되지만 주의가 필요하며, 경기 침체기에는 공격적인 매수는 권장하지 않습니다.