President Biden is under mounting pressure to drop his bid for a second term. So far, he's vowed to stay in the race. I am running and going to win again. After the president's disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump, cracks begin to emerge in his party's unity. Democrats are buzzing about who would replace Biden if he were to drop out. American presidential elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House Party. In other words, it's governance, not campaigning, that counts. Alan Lichtman is a presidential historian known for the 13 keys to the White House, a forecasting system that has been used to successfully predict nine of the last 10 elections. To him, it is still the best bet for Democrats to have Biden stay in the race. Here's why. The 13 keys to the White House are 13 true or false questions pertaining primarily to the strength and performance of The White House Party, where an answer of true always favors stability. If six or more of the keys are false, we have earthquakes. If fewer than

six are false we have stability while some Democrats Ponder a variety of Governors and lawmakers who could step in as the nominee. A ticket led by vice president Kamala Harris Remains the most likely alternative. As Biden's running mate, Harris would be able to use the money already raised by Biden's Campaign Committee. The vice president would also have some key endorsements from influential Democratic lawmakers. I will support her if he were to step aside. However, if Biden were to exit the race, two of the 13 Keys would automatically be in Jeopardy: the incumbency key (whether or not the incumbent candidate is the sitting president) and the contest key (which looks at whether there is competition within the incumbent party for the nomination). Biden running checks off two keys right. Biden steps aside, they lose, obviously, the incumbency, and it's not at all clear that there wouldn't be a big party fight. There is one extremely unlikely scenario Lickman says could help Democrats keep those keys. Let's assume for a moment that the pressure is so great that Biden has to

step aside. Here's what he should do to preserve the keys and keep the Democrats' best chances for election alive. He should say, For the good of the country, I am making the ultimate sacrifice. I am stepping down from the presidency. Then, Kamala Harris would become president, and they would secure the incumbency key. He could then release all of his delegates to Harris to secure the contest key. That's the only situation under which the Democrats would not start out some keys deficit. With only 4 months left before election day, some keys have already been decided. Democrats get a false for party mandate because they lost nine seats in the House during the 2022 midterm elections. The short-term economy key is marked true because the US is not in a recession. I don't call the recessions myself. I rely on the National Bureau of Economic Research. You heard a lot of criticism about the economy. You know about the high inflation, but there are other indicators that are very positive: strong growth, near-record low unemployment. As for the long-term economy, it looks at real

per capita growth during the term, and it compares it to the average of the previous two terms. And that key is solidly in the Democratic favor. Also, in their favor are the policy change and Scandal keys. To turn the Scandal key, it has to involve the president himself, not the president's children, not the president's brother or sisters. So, the Hunter Biden situation doesn't turn the Scandal key according to its definitions. So, Biden's a aella guy. That's why he doesn't win the Charisma key, but that's why he does win the Scandal key according to Lickman. KLA Harris wouldn't get the Charisma key either. None of the potential candidates would. You're talking about the once-in-a-generation, truly inspirational, and broadly inspirational candidates. The truth is we wouldn't disagree much on who they are. Peddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama in 2008, not necessarily in 2012, John F. Kennedy. There are very few of them over a 100 years even.

Donald Trump, who is known for his showmanship, doesn't make the grade. You have to be broadly appealing, and Trump only appeals to a narrow base. That's another key in favor of the Democrats. The remaining four have yet to be determined, whether it's Biden or Harris at the top of the ticket. The administration's handling of the wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine has led to big question marks around the two keys related to foreign or military affairs. If she were to become the candidate, she would be running on the record of the three and a half years plus of the Biden Administration. And all the same keys, as they fall one way or the other, would be the same, whether it was Biden, Harris, or anyone else. Right now, the Democrats are two keys down. That means four more would need to drop for Trump to become the predicted winner. Questions about Biden's age and mental acuity have thrown his party into crisis, with some Democrats arguing that a younger, more energetic Kamala Harris could have a broader appeal, particularly among women and black.

voters. But when it comes to the 13 Keys system, Lickman says that replacing Biden with Harris only puts Democrats at greater risk. Harris is not the only name being discussed. Governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Gavin Newsom of California are also seen as contenders. Well, we're in uncharted territory here since there's never been such a situation where after getting more than enough delegates to get nominated, a candidate withdraws. Still, none of the alternatives bring anything new to the table under the framework of the 13 Keys because they're premised on how elections really work as a referendum on how the party holding the White House has fared. The keys have very little to do with the individual candidates. [Music]

Historian Explains Why Dropping Biden Won’t Help Democrats | WSJ

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