Recently, various pessimistic views surrounding the U.S. economy and stock market persist. This time, Harry Dent, a figure well-known for his book on the population cliff, has come out with the bubble theory, predicting a whopping 86% drop in the S&P 500 index and a 98% plunge in Nvidia's stock price early next year. On the other hand, it would be difficult to exclude Gangnam property prices from the bubble controversy when viewed through the bubble theory. In applying this theory, it raises the question of how much property prices will actually fall. Korean economic newspaper columnist Han Sang-chun is here to discuss this. Hello. Hello. As previously mentioned, Harry Dent, known for his book on the population cliff, is with us. In the background, as it is, when you were young, your predictions were often wrong compared to now, right?

You will come out with a slightly old face. Yes, with the S&P 500 index at 86%, it seems to be interpreted as almost a collapse of the stock market. Also, they warned that Nvidia's stock price would plummet by 98%. What do you think about this? Last night, because of Korea and China, I had to go to bed early for the morning broadcast, so I couldn't sleep. We won, so some people might be drinking happily. I don't think now is a good time to have a hangover drink. Yes, so I read the original text because there were a lot of mentions of this in foreign news yesterday. Then the theory of a hangover drink came out like this. Do you know the English expression for a hangover drink? So, because of our new English, maybe even in the title, like Hangover of the Day, it's more like that these days.

There are a lot of expressions like ddeok and when we were poor and young, when we were bitten by a dog, there was no medicine at that time. So, we burned the fur of the dog a bit, and when the dog bit us like this, that's how it happened. So, even now, if you drink a lot after winning against China and soccer the day before, you won't be able to wake up at this point, right? When you wake up, your head hurts a bit, so you have to wake up completely. Again, the expression hyejang originally came from the folk customs in Korea, so it seems like the expression came from the perspective that the same kind should be treated the same way. It's not that the expression hyejang came from the expression hair of the dog, right? So, why is the expression hyejang better than the English expression hair of the dog?

When we were young, when bitten by a dog, the dog's hair would fall out quickly, so I think our ancestors in our country did something like that. Anyway, expressions like this come out, and now talking about this kind of issue, it becomes a hot topic. Today, let's focus on this issue a bit. Recently, there have been many theories about the collapse of the U.S. economy and the stock market. I won't explain every detail every time it comes up. First of all, the former U.S. President, Trump, the Republican candidate heading towards the presidential election, talked about the U.S. economy. Then, the collapse of the stock market came up, and Robert Gates also mentioned the very controversial issue of U.S. national debt. Today, the auction showed a very positive outcome due to the bid by Mayback, showing a glimpse of the U.S. economy avoiding default.

Yes, that's right. Chairman Daimon also overcame taboos and now, by declaring 1st place, he raised JP Morgan Group. When the national bond interest rate suddenly surges by 88%, then the national bond price drops by half. Therefore, it leads to an international default, just like what happened. This time, Harry Dent predicts that the U.S. economy will face a major crisis early next year. From two perspectives, Harry's letter, as wise viewers already know, focuses on predicting real estate prices. However, regarding stock market predictions, since real estate price predictions keep going wrong, isn't it more like guessing the stock market? If we explain in detail, there might be some misunderstandings. First, the part about stock market predictions questions a bit from the perspective of being well-known for real estate predictions, and next year, even though the U.S. economy is doing well now, the SNP index is -

After that, the NASDAQ drops by 92%. Isn't this the hottest stock right now? NVIDIA's stock price drops by 98%. Viewers, if it collapses by 98% at this level, it's almost a total collapse. So, how should we view this? From Harry Dent's perspective, which is the most well-known from our perspective, yesterday viewers saw other news and later checked the original source. In our domestic media, they do not explain the background but just proceed like this, so I will explain today's context. In the U.S., there is no interest in predicting Harry Dent's predictions. Therefore, the three major indices showed a waiting market rather than focusing on the announcement of MC, which will be released early tomorrow morning our time. This is how you should see it. Alright, if the Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices drop by around 80-90%, this almost sounds like the global economy is collapsing. Is this true or not?

Leaving, it seems like a problem that naturally attracts interest in the first place. First of all, could you please explain who Harry Dent is? Personally, it seems like he appeared earlier than expected. Because Harry Dent has always appeared every ten years. Let's rewind that a bit and take a look with the viewers. For example, he came out with the book at 2 won. Oh, this is a part where we need to think about the publication in Korea. When Harry Dent, who is not right, came out with the book, it caused a huge sensation, especially among politicians, and in the media, he was portrayed as if he had great insights into real estate predictions, which led to selling his books well in Korea. However, if the book sold well, it should have played a role in guiding our citizens economically by making accurate predictions. Predictions turned out to be undoubtedly wrong, so I will just say that he sold well.

Would you like to do it? In the United States, if you look at the Bay Area from 1955 to 1963, you would know about that Bay Area era. After retiring in the United States after 2010, the ultimate asset prices are collapsing, as people are retiring, wouldn't it collapse when people retire? Therefore, after 2010, theories of economic recession and collapse of the U.S. system emerged. Viewers, those who know or have heard of the stock market collapse theory emerged after 2010. Since then, the U.S. economy has experienced periods such as the 1930s, 1960s, Vietnam, the special Kennedy-Johnson economic boom, followed by the 1990s New Economic Boom, and then from 2010, in fact, due to the excellent points of the policy prescriptions by Janet Yellen, who led the so-called macroeconomic policy, the economy has flourished politically. Therefore, this prediction is based on economic and political aspects.

Because they failed, ultimately, other countries did not actually gain popularity. However, ten years later, in 2015, a book called Population Cliff came out. It was a big hit in Korea. So, due to the prediction failure, it did not attract popularity in other countries, but only in Korea. At that time, the perspective on Gangnam apartment prices was very optimistic. However, it should have appeared in 2025, exactly ten years later. But, I predicted it to appear in 2025, 2005 instead of 2015. Originally, it should have appeared in 2025. Well, it appeared earlier than expected, and that's why it appeared almost ten years later. For example, in the case of the United States, the real estate market is predicted to plummet by 98%. So, in this passage, I will tell you that I am very interested in the evidence for this. Okay, from now on, let's take a closer look at this.

The expression was very interesting first. Haejangsul of the United States economy and the stock market will collapse. Now he claims that the evidence is unique. Please touch on the content first. In the past, you will all know about Harry Dent's predictions about real estate. Dent used demographic techniques in real estate predictions. I'm sure you all know demographic techniques well. Asset prices in a particular country are influenced by the asset class. If the asset class becomes thicker, stock prices and real estate prices go up, and if the asset class becomes narrower, stock prices and real estate prices do not go well. Therefore, many domestic real estate experts also focused on demographic techniques. For example, those who were in securities firms now may be in real estate or have their own opinions on real estate like Kang Sun-yi or Bokdorbang. This person who has his own opinions on real estate.

No matter how much it is typically asserted pessimistically about Gangnam apartments, the basis for this is again in demographic methods. So what about measuring assets? In fact, the most economically active group is between 35 and 55 years old. But being economically active doesn't necessarily mean having a high income. So later, it was narrowed down to core assets. Let's talk about Gangnam apartments. Previously, it was based on demographic methods, but it didn't fit well. However, this time, with the recognition phenomenon and the theory of hangover cure, let's take a look at this. Drink a lot of alcohol. If you drink a lot, later you will become a hangover. Then, my point is, when you drink a lot of alcohol, whether you come in for the morning broadcast or not, I feel like this is how it really happens.

I don't think my facial expression is coming out right. Please show the subtitles again. When it becomes a state of losing control, when you wake up from drinking, oh, it gives you a headache. But you still have to overcome it. In the morning, I drink hangover soup again to prevent losing that. Similarly, once you become addicted, you pay money to forget by drinking. Yes, you pay money. Then, to recover economically in the future, you have to completely push forward with an exit strategy like waking up like this. What is the current point of waking up now? Actually, during the crisis of the COVID-19 situation, in order to solve the problem of money being poured out, in order to overcome this, even if it's painful, you have to endure things like raising interest rates. Yes, but when another crisis arises, from the perspective of economic policy in a puffery economy, what happens is that because public sentiment is down, they pour out money again.

This is a story. So, if we keep making money like this, what do you think? It's about the stock and real estate prices soaring. From that perspective, in 2008, after the subprime mortgage loan, pouring money was basically an exit strategy, so we need to completely overcome the money we've thrown out. For example, when crisis signs appear, like during the corona period and then last year during the SV crisis, there are talks of pouring money again. So, ultimately, from an economic and stock market perspective, it's said that it's overvalued, very overvalued. This is the theory of a speculative bubble. That's how it is. Therefore, the accurate English expression is as I mentioned earlier, using such expressions. And as a result, the collapse point, in fact, this talk came up last year too, last year in our country.

In the case of those like the economist, how do they predict the collapse theory, the collapse theory of the era, wasn't it prevalent last year? A more significant crisis theory, similar to this, Harry Dent predicted the market collapse last year, but last year, in the same case, the market wasn't bad, right? Once again, delaying for a year, as mentioned earlier, SMPG was at 86%, then NASIS was at 92%, and now NVIDIA's stock price is up by 98%, showing this theory. Understandable, right? Therefore, the bubble surrounding the true economy seems significant. Despite various warnings and pessimism, the market has been showing a bullish trend since last year. How do you see this part? Basically, the world is one now. No matter how many warnings are given, the demographic statistical techniques that Harry Dent uses are...

The technique targets specific country's assets, but now when I see the news this morning, why did CEO Kim Jungho invest so much money in New York for the viewers? When I wondered why he invested so much money like this for the viewers, what's happening in New York comes into my hands in just 30 seconds. Therefore, the world is not nation to nation, country-based, it's become one world. So, the U.S. is a state, Korea is a state, then from the perspective of one world, the U.S. and Korea are one country. Yes, that's what CEO Kim Jungho is saying. In the same country, the U.S. stock market will have more influence on the Korean stock market.

For the first time in the industry, it went from there to where it is now, and that is currently a very hot topic that all broadcasts are covering, isn't it? This is the main point. This Harry Dent's prediction technique has been said to be accurate only for specific countries. However, last year, in our country, there were theories of economic collapse and stock market collapse, but the global stock prices increased by an average of 18%, and the global economic growth rate was 3.2%. Just the day before yesterday, the World Bank again revised and raised the global economic growth forecast. In this environment, what is happening is precisely that last year, the Dow Jones stock price was predicted to reach 35,000 won, and this year, it is expected to increase by another 15%, reaching the 40,000 won mark. Doesn't it seem like it will reach 40,000 won? From this perspective, it is said that there is an environment where Jeremy Siegel directly refutes Harry Dent's specific-country asset allocation with global solutions and global strategies.

Please consider thinking about exit strategies and birth strategies at this angle. I hope you will take an interest in the global solutions that Jeremy Sciggy mentioned in this section. When three become one, if it is difficult for a specific country's asset class, people can immigrate from abroad to complement our population structure. By doing this, it is possible to prevent a collapse of Gangnam apartments caused by a specific country's asset class affecting Korea. The point is that rather than solving our low birth rate and aging population issues internally, it is better to bring in excellent talents from countries like India and Vietnam who want to come to Korea now. By issuing visas and such, by implementing global solutions like this, we need to solve this problem. Even if someone gets married right now and offers 100 million won, if they have three or four children, half of them will not be economically active population.

If you want to participate, even if Hong Gyeong did not get married, it takes 20 to 30 years for their children to participate in marriage activities and economic activities. That's right. What is that for? It's needed right now. So, Harry Lenter talked about this point yesterday, throwing a lot of insights. Let's try to unravel this point once. Before we move on to our problem, don't you think we should first resolve one curiosity? Please explain the reasons for this phenomenon where there are many theories of a collapsing country and a collapse of civilization. Last month, for us, there were thousands of technologies for us, but none of them are right. However, nowadays, various cafes or links are connected, and we should not indulge too much in the view that crisis rumors are spreading on YouTube. It is said that such a trend is now becoming a wave.

This is why there are many crises. The aspect of why so many crises are emerging is due to the mismatch between the economy and democratic governance. No matter how much the economy is emphasized, it is not the case that lawmakers who advocate for crises to rise will prosper as much as nature. So, it's not like they all end up in Gangnam or something like that. It's like saying, Go to a good school in the United States, but in Korea, go to Sky University. Even though they shout about crises themselves, they prioritize efficiency for their own children. Isn't it about achieving success? It's the same. When it comes to their children, wouldn't they do the same? Right now, the economy emphasizes efficiency. But not everyone in the economy who emphasizes efficiency is like that. If you equip AI education, then a person becomes a concept of human capital. Then, as time goes on, won't capital and labor be concentrated? However, democracy is one person, one vote. So, the middle class...

Isn't it falling down below? Then, what is it in Hongyang? If a member of the National Assembly leaves, for example, if the president leaves, rather than aiming for a successful person, it is inevitable to oppress the lower class because they put the individual in power. So, because they put the individual in power, that's why they can only suppress the lower class. So, democracy, and then, due to economic difficulties, that's why. The people in the lower class are not all like that. There are people living in the lower class who have their own beliefs. People in the lower class are relatively poor, so they naturally feel resentment towards those who are doing well. Because of this, they can't help but be very sensitive to crisis rumors, right? The problem is, if you say that the crisis rumors are not true, everyone wants to live well in any form. The members who were talking about the crisis earlier only talk about how well their own children are doing, right? And in order for the opposition party members to become the ruling party later on, they also need to revive the economy, don't they? So,

When we look at economic history, crises don't fit well, and if we look at the economy, downturns are always short, and growth does not happen. The growth period has lengthened. So, due to the current economic and civilizational phenomena, in fact, these crisis theories are not really applicable. However, I will tell you that they are not actually being accepted. Yes, I understand. And why did Kerry Dent put forward such pessimism? Could you briefly touch on the results first? Now, let's look at us. Now, let's look at the U.S. economy and also the U.S. stock market. In this case, we actually discussed the Haejangsool theory, so Harry Dent talked a lot about Korean real estate, so we applied this theory to Korea. When applied to Korea, were the predictions of Korean real estate prices correct? This is what viewers may be curious about. Before giving the conclusion, let me briefly summarize. In 2015, the population.

I heard about the cliff. At that time, the core asset class entered. As mentioned earlier, the asset class is from 35 to 55 years old. However, for those aged 35 to 55, although they are very active in the economy, their income is not guaranteed. That's why in 2015, the core asset class emerged from the population cliff. Nowadays, this class consists of people aged 45 to 49. However, in terms of the Korean population, there has been a sharp decline after 2018. Therefore, in the case of Gangnam apartments, they are expected to fall into a long-term recession. This is how the outlook is now. For example, Elon Musk's interest was how much at that time? In 2015, during the bubble period in 2000, Harry Dent gained popularity in Korea again. Looking at the recent 10 years, he is gaining popularity in Korea, even private banks, and commercial banks, probably knew this in 2010. Based on this, in 2017, the price of Gangnam apartments...

It was predicted to drop by 15%. Yes, now it's 2018. We've come from 2017 to now. How about the apartment prices in Gangnam? It's probably coming out as the hottest in the world. So, based on demographic methods, I will tell you that Harry Hunter's prediction of the hottest Gangnam apartment prices in Korea has ultimately failed. However, if we listen to pessimists, even from a non-demographic perspective, many warn of a real estate slump due to low birth rates and aging population, right? Recently, there was a report in The New York Times about childbirth in Korea. Do you remember that? At that time, we were compared to the Black Death in the 14th century. You probably know about that content. Therefore, Korea ranks first in the world in three population-related aspects. The birth rate was 0.7, the lowest in the world.

In the 1960s, the birth rate decrease rate dropped to 60 to 86%, making it the lowest in the world. Then, the aging speed is the fastest in the world. Let me explain this once. Of course, the current speed of the government's national debt is very slow or fast. Also, in the low birth rate committee's measures, there are efforts by the current government to elevate it to the level of deputy prime minister. In fact, solving the low birth rate issue is a long-term task. However, the issue of the Korean economy, low birth rate, and aging problem is urgent to the extent that unexpected problems are arising. How to solve this urgent issue in the current situation is the most pressing matter. Look at the U.S. economy by Jeremy Gell. Why is the U.S. economy doing well now? The problem is that the U.S. itself is having a hard time. Reshoring from overseas is the key.

Don't you pursue policies? The Biden administration actively brings in immigrants, then foreign companies actively come in, and give tax breaks, give tax breaks, come in this way to solve it. Doesn't it work for the U.S. economy? Therefore, in the long run, rather than the current policy of childbirth, we should go to the bottleneck through aging population replacement. When the children of the baby boom generation start participating in economic activities, we need measures that will take 20 to 30 years, using domestic taxes. Isn't short-term measures more important than this? There are also empirically successful countries. Regarding immigration, it is necessary to have some specialized visas for those who are coming in from abroad now. In fact, how long is Korea's population consulting period? I recommend solving this along with this period. This is the starting point for the Korean economy, which is actually the beginning of a new paradigm by the Harry Center.

I will tell you. Yes, that's right. Long-term measures should be established as long-term measures, and short-term measures should also be greatly supplemented, don't you think? Lastly, in Korea, there are many crisis theories, and sensitive reactions often arise, perhaps due to experiencing various crises. On the contrary, I think that frequent crisis theories like this may not burden the economy and the stock market. Could you please conclude? It is repeated about external crises. In our crisis theories, the Tax Manning method is mentioned over a thousand times. Yes, not a single one has occurred. But recently, in the process of becoming YouTubers, many people think about this as we are buying these lions, and there are many excellent people who do this on YouTube, so we have changed it like this. The crisis theory for content clicks. Typically, when many clicks occur, signs like this appear, indicating a crisis theory. Yes, it's not a crisis theory, but there are many clicks like this, indicating this, and this.

When signs appear, stock prices drop. When such stock prices come out, what do they do a lot on YouTube? Oh, they create crises. This is a typical, extreme expression. They create crises on YouTube to boost clicks. Oh, it's a crisis. This is most common in Korea. Also, readers are attracted to that and click a lot, which is crucial from Korea's economic standpoint. Networking and the effect of the crisis are significant. When people like Harry Dent make such extreme claims, whether it's right or wrong, if a person like that claims that NVIDIA's stock price will plummet by 98%, people on YouTube can talk about this crisis for the sake of clicks. When this happens, those who become stars themselves have a social responsibility, whether they are American or belong to that group. This implies that they have a social responsibility. I spread crisis rumors.

Whether it is right or wrong, the notion of a crisis in Korea itself becomes a burden on the Korean economy. From the perspective of someone who has become a star or earned a lot of advertising revenue on YouTube, I think they can probably figure out how to conduct themselves. Therefore, although the media has brought up this issue yesterday, there are no articles providing insights on how this affects the Korean economy. So, in reality, people keep making mistakes, but why do they keep selling so well in Korea? Do we have to believe in such things? Therefore, we need to take a closer look at this and think about it from various perspectives. This is what we discussed today with the topic of Kim Cheon Feed. This is how it is. Thank you for your attention to today's discussion on the Korean economy in the newspaper.

Han Sang-jun was a lawmaker. Thank you. Thank you.

해리 덴트 “해장술(hair of the dog) 거품은 깨진다”ㅣ“내년 엔비디아 98% 폭락할 것”…강남 집값은?ㅣ한상춘의 지금세계는ㅣ한국경제TV

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해리 덴트 “해장술(hair of the dog) 거품은 깨진다”ㅣ“내년 엔비디아 98% 폭락할 것”…강남 집값은?ㅣ한상춘의 지금세계는ㅣ한국경제TV

해리 덴트 “해장술(hair of the dog) 거품은 깨진다”ㅣ“내년 엔비디아 98% 폭락할 것”…강남 집값은?ㅣ한상춘의 지금세계는ㅣ한국경제TV

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