알파벳의 가치 평가 및 시장 지위 도전 과제 설명

### 기술 시장에서의 알파벳의 위치: 가치 평가, 경쟁, 기업 문화
* 📈 구글의 모회사인 알파벳은 세 가지 유형의 주식을 제공하는데, **A형(GOOGL)과 C형(GOOG)은 공개적으로 거래**되고 **B형 주식은 창업자와 경영진이 보유**하고 있습니다.
* 💰 최고의 IT 인재와 강력한 브랜드를 보유하고 있음에도 불구하고 구글의 밸류에이션, 특히 **주가수익비율(P/E)은 20배**로 **30배가 넘는 애플이나 마이크로소프트**와 같은 경쟁사에 비해 놀라울 정도로 낮습니다.
* 🏢 알파벳의 시가총액은 **2조 1,000억 달러**로, 애플과 엔비디아 같은 경쟁사의 시가총액이 **3조 달러가 넘는 대형 기술 기업 가운데 중간 정도**에 위치합니다.
* 📉 특히 약 **3,000억 달러 규모의 광고 검색 시장**에서 Amazon과 같은 기업과 신흥 AI 기업이 구글의 지배력에 상당한 위협을 가하면서 경쟁 환경이 변화하고 있습니다.
* 👥 에릭 슈미트 전 CEO는 구글의 기업 문화에 대한 우려를 강조하며 **직원 만족에 초점을 맞추다 보니 혁신에 필요한 긴박감과 '헝그리 정신'이 부족**해질 수 있다고 지적했습니다.
* 🔍 특히 틱톡과 같은 소셜 미디어 플랫폼과 AI 기반 기업과의 경쟁이 치열해지면서 **디지털 광고에서 구글의 아성이 도전**받고 있으며, 이는 삼성전자가 직면한 문제와 유사합니다.
* 📊 이러한 어려움에도 불구하고 알파벳은 **꾸준한 성장과 강력한 수익 창출, 상대적으로 낮은 리스크**로 인해 장기적으로 매력적인 투자처로 남아 있어 변동성이 큰 시장에서 안정성을 원하는 투자자에게 적합합니다.
* 💡 결론적으로, 알파벳은 상당한 경쟁 압력과 문화적 도전에 직면해 있지만, **낮은 밸류에이션과 탄탄한 인재 풀**을 바탕으로 미래 성장에 유리한 위치를 점하고 있습니다.

알파벳은 경쟁이 치열해지는 가운데서도 꾸준한 성장과 낮은 주가수익비율로 인해 여전히 매력적인 투자처입니다.

Hello, this is Namu. Today, I will talk about a topic that is quite familiar to all of you: Google. The publicly traded company is Alphabet, which is Google's parent company. There are three types of stocks: A, B, and C. The ones that are publicly traded are the A-type stocks, represented by GOOGL, and the C-type stocks, represented by GOOG. There isn't a significant difference between the two, although there is a difference in voting rights. The B-class stocks are held by the founders and executives, so they are not traded.

However, Google's valuation, expressed in terms of price-to-earnings ratio, is the best among the big tech companies. This is somewhat surprising because Google is said to have the best IT talent in the world, including software engineers and scientists. Google is considered one of the hardest companies to get into for IT professionals, and its brand is outstanding. When you think of Google, it gives you a sense of supremacy. But how...

Valuation is at its lowest, and there are reasons for this that are somewhat similar to the recent issues faced by Samsung Electronics, so I think it would be good for us to take a closer look. First, I have created a simple table to evaluate the valuations and stock prices of our big tech companies. 

So, the first is market capitalization, which can be compared to the selling price of an apartment. Next, we look at how much the stock price has increased over the past ten months this year. Then we examine the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio). As we enter October, we estimate this year's earnings and next year's earnings, along with the average earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025. This means we are looking at the multiple in relation to the expected earnings over the next 12 months. 

If we compare it to apartment prices, this could be 30 million won, 40 million won, 50 million won, or 100 million won. The higher the P/E ratio, the higher the growth potential, earnings stability, and earnings quality are typically.

Governance is said to be good, but Google has a market capitalization of 2.1 trillion won, which places it in the middle among the seven big tech companies. Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are in the 3 trillion won range, and right below them, there's Alphabet, which is significantly lower. Amazon and Meta are closing in, with their valuations approaching 2 trillion won. Alphabet's stock does not fluctuate as much; it tends to be somewhat defensive, showing a steady increase compared to the other big tech stocks. What I want to emphasize is that Alphabet has the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 20 times. Previously, Meta's valuation was much lower than Alphabet's, but Meta has risen significantly. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and even Amazon have P/E ratios exceeding 30 times.

Before, the price-to-earnings ratio was about 5 to 6 times, but before COVID-19, it has now stabilized at around 35 times. Tesla, on the other hand, has a high P/E ratio due to strong expectations for its future. So, when we look at Alphabet, one might wonder why its P/E ratio is so low, which could lead to concerns about its growth potential. A significant part of its growth relies on digital online advertising, which comes with volatility. Additionally, in this era of AI, there may be a concern that its competitiveness is declining. It seems that the employees are too comfortable in such a good company, lacking a bit of that hungry mentality. In that sense, it is somewhat similar to Samsung Electronics. I will identify three reasons for this. The first is that Alphabet, or Google, earns most of its revenue from the advertising search market, and competition there is becoming incredibly fierce. If we look solely at the U.S. market, just six years ago...

In 2018, when you searched for advertisements, ads would appear. At that time, Microsoft had a market share of 60%, but it seems that this year it will drop below 50%, and next year it may fall to around 40%. In the United States, the advertising search market is worth about $300 billion, which is roughly 400 trillion won. So, where is the growth happening? Amazon is currently making significant strides. For several years now, younger people in the U.S. have tended to search for products on Amazon rather than Google. We can see a similar trend here, as we don't search much on Coupang lately; it's the same situation. Microsoft is also making progress, and Amazon's market share is now exceeding 10% to 20%. Essentially, Amazon has captured the portion of the market that Google and Microsoft are losing. Furthermore, recently, there has been a growing focus on advertising in ticket sales, which is very popular among young people, and AI companies are opening up.

AI, Anthropic, and others are now emerging, and in terms of search, this is a part that generates immense profits. They are pushing into this area, threatening Google's stronghold. From Google's perspective, if we look at the recent second-quarter results, we cannot precisely determine the profitability margin of Google Search. Overall, the operating profit margin is around the low 30% range, and when we consider just the search part along with YouTube and other advertising sectors, the profitability is about 40%. However, if we look at search alone, we might see profits around 50%. This means that a significant portion of Google's overall profits comes from advertising, but this momentum is currently weakening. Recently, we have seen other social media platforms, such as TikTok, gaining significant traction.

Young people are spending hours on platforms like TikTok. From the advertisers' perspective, this is very attractive. Additionally, companies that are AI-based recognize that this market is vast and highly profitable. Google has maintained a sort of monopoly, sharing the market primarily with Amazon. Of course, Meta shows strong performance in the SMS advertising sector. Recently, companies like Percy, founded by former OpenAI employees, are pursuing subscription-based economic models but are also actively seeking AI-driven targeted advertising. As these changes occur, competition is intensifying, which could diminish Google's stronghold. The situation with Samsung Electronics is quite similar; Google is seen as a monopolistic powerhouse.

There's a school-like atmosphere, but there's a lack of a hungry mentality and a sense of urgency. In August, Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, mentioned that if Google pursues remote work and work-life balance, it will ultimately win. He stated that it's impossible to dominate the AI sector by overwhelming other companies. He indirectly criticized the current CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai, and although Schmidt later said that his comments were misinterpreted, he fundamentally believes that if a company focuses too much on satisfying employees with remote work and work-life balance, it ends up lacking a hungry mentality, which leads to losing rather than winning. Recently, such aspects have been reflected in Google's culture, and Schmidt further discussed these points regarding startups like OpenAI.

The reason AI is standing out is that the employees are working like hell. I've marked it with an arrow, and that's how they talk about it. So, there are issues with corporate culture and employees' work ethic, which can also be seen as a problem of alignment. Google is so large, with around 200,000 full-time employees and a similar number of non-regular employees, that it has become bloated, possibly lacking in corporate spirit. This aspect is somewhat similar to the current issues faced by Samsung Electronics. Lastly, you might be aware that before AI, Google and Meta were the two giants in the search market and digital advertising. Recently, Amazon has been making strides, but in AI, we are entering a more fragmented era. OpenAI and Microsoft are key players, and then there’s a company called Pik, founded by OpenAI's creators, which is also emerging.

Good job. In addition, in the safer industry, here too, the founders of OpenAI are coming out, and I think that three to five companies will dominate the global market. It seems to be transitioning from a monopoly to an oligopoly. In conclusion, while Alphabet has some concerns, it is still an attractive company that continues to grow steadily and generate significant profits, making it suitable for long-term holding with relatively low risk. It does not take overly aggressive risks, and it has the best talent. Most importantly, its valuation is low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20. Therefore, even if the U.S. market undergoes a correction, the decline in stock prices will be relatively small, making it suitable for long-term holding. That is what I wanted to convey. I will conclude here. Thank you.

구글 위기 맞나?

삼성증권 초대 리서치센터장,
메릴린치 한국 공동대표,
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이남우의 좋은주식연구소

Google의 주식 구조 및 가치 평가

Google의 모회사인 알파벳에는 세 가지 유형의 주식이 있습니다: A(상장, GOOGL), B(창업자 및 경영진이 보유), C(상장, GOOG).

구글의 주가수익비율은 대형 기술 기업 중 가장 낮게 평가되고 있음에도 불구하고 최고의 IT 인재와 브랜드를 보유하고 있습니다.

주가수익비율은 성장 잠재력, 수익 안정성, 수익의 질을 평가하는 데 사용되며, 이 비율이 높을수록 성장 가능성이 높다는 것을 의미합니다.

대형 기술 기업 중 알파벳의 위치

구글의 모기업인 알파벳의 시가총액은 2조 1,000억 원으로 7대 기술 기업 중 중간 정도에 속합니다.

주가수익비율(P/E)이 20배로 가장 낮아 성장 잠재력에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

이 회사의 매출은 대부분 치열한 경쟁과 변동성을 겪고 있는 디지털 온라인 광고에서 발생합니다.

Microsoft의 광고 검색 시장 점유율은 감소하고 있으며, 올해에는 50% 이하로, 내년에는 40% 내외로 떨어질 것으로 예상됩니다.

젊은 층이 구글 대신 아마존에서 제품을 검색하는 경우가 늘어나면서 아마존의 시장 점유율이 10%에서 20%를 넘어서는 등 주목을 받고 있습니다.

또한, 검색 시장에서 구글의 아성을 위협하는 AI 기업들이 등장하고 있으며, 틱톡과 같은 다른 소셜 미디어 플랫폼도 큰 주목을 받고 있습니다.

젊은 층이 AI와 광고에 미치는 영향

젊은이들은 틱톡과 같은 플랫폼에서 상당한 시간을 보내며 광고주와 인공지능 기반 기업의 관심을 끌고 있습니다.

구글과 아마존은 압도적인 시장 점유율을 차지하고 있으며, 메타는 SMS 광고에서 두각을 나타내고 있습니다.

퍼시와 같은 기업들이 구독 기반 모델과 AI 기반 타겟팅 광고를 통해 시장을 혼란에 빠뜨리면서 경쟁이 심화되고 있으며, 잠재적으로 구글의 입지가 약화될 가능성이 있습니다.

AI가 기업 문화와 시장 역학 관계에 미치는 영향

AI의 두각은 직원들의 강도 높은 업무 윤리에 의해 주도되고 있으며, 기업 문화와 정렬의 문제를 부각시킵니다.

구글의 대규모 인력은 현재 삼성전자의 문제와 유사하게 몸집 불리기와 기업 정신의 결여로 이어졌습니다.

AI 시장은 OpenAI, Microsoft, Pik 등이 주요 업체로 부상하면서 세분화되고 있지만, 알파벳은 꾸준한 성장과 낮은 리스크, 우호적인 밸류에이션으로 인해 장기 보유하기에 매력적인 기업으로 남아 있습니다.