골드만삭스 보고서: 미국 주식 시장 전망 및 동향

### 골드만삭스 보고서: 강세장에서 약세장으로의 시장 전망 전환
* 📉 골드만 삭스는 최근 고객에게 보낸 메모를 통해 **올 여름 미국 시장이 강세장에서 약세장으로 전환**할 것으로 예상했습니다.
* 💼 이 보고서는 시장의 **'전술적 약점'**을 제시하며 가까운 미래에 두 걸음 앞으로 나아갈 때마다 한 걸음 뒤로 물러설 것을 권고합니다.
* 📈 현재 시장은 과매수 상태로 간주되며, **2024년 상반기에 주식, ETF, 뮤추얼 펀드에 231억 달러의 자금이 유입**되었습니다.
* 📊 S&P 500 상위 10개 종목에 대한 시장 기대치가 높기 때문에 **현재 밸류에이션을 유지하려면 뛰어난 실적**이 필요할 수 있습니다.
* 🏦 씨티그룹의 스콧 크론맥도 여름 조정 가능성을 예측하며 **고평가된 섹터에 대한 노출을 줄이고 잠재적 금리 인하 수혜주로 자금을 이동**하라고 조언했습니다.
* 🌐 기술 부문은 특히 취약한 분야로, **시장의 성장 기대치가 개별 기업이 달성할 수 있는 수준**을 넘어서는 경우가 많습니다.
* 📉 단기적인 시장 조정이 예상되지만 **미국 주식시장의 거품이 심각**하다는 데는 의견이 일치하지 않습니다.
* 🔮 미래는 불확실하지만 잠재적인 시장 변동성에 대비하고 시장 상황 변화에 따라 **수혜를 받을 수 있는 섹터로 투자 방향을 전환**하는 것이 좋습니다.

골드만삭스는 여름 변동성과 고평가된 기술주를 언급하며 미국 시장에 대한 약세 전망으로 전환하고 전술적 포트폴리오 조정을 권고했습니다.

In this video, we will discuss recent reports from Goldman Sachs and similar topics. First, for those who are curious about the recent testimony of Jerome Powell at the Senate, I have already prepared a breaking news video, so please refer to that for details. In summary, Powell currently sees no signs of a downturn in the economy. The labor market is returning to pre-pandemic levels, and if it weakens further, the need for interest rate hikes may increase. However, the current unemployment rate of 4.1% is not considered high. This is the general view. According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, they suggest a shift from a bullish to a bearish view on the US market this summer. They sent a memo to clients on Monday, indicating a change from a bullish to a bearish market trend for the near future.

An email will be sent, especially as I am currently monitoring the adjustment. When using this expression, especially late adjustments may come. Why might adjustments come? First of all, many people have bought it. The buying price is saturated. Therefore, additional ammunition is running out, and in the future, as the stock market enters the earnings season and election season, volatility may increase. Historically, the market tends to decline a bit after mid-July. So, this person observed that in the first half of 24, the amount invested in stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds was the second largest on record, reaching $23.1 billion. Also, $4.365 billion went into passive funds, which has been a significant factor in boosting the stock market. However, it seems that it will slow down in August. Historically, August is not a good month for investments.

The level of market expectations for the top 10 stocks that led the performance of the SMP 500 has become too high. In order to justify the steep increase in stock prices over a short period, even higher performance is needed to meet the heightened market expectations. Now, being satisfied with just average earnings surprises might not be enough. However, as the bar has been set too high, short-term issues could arise. This is Rub's view. On the other hand, what Goldman Sachs is saying is using this expression: tactical weakness. This means that the medium to long-term upward trend of the U.S. stock market and the strength of U.S. stocks remain unchanged. It is justifiable to consider a tactical retreat of one step back for every two steps forward tactically in the summer. This is the kind of discussion. Even if you look at the actual report, if you look at the Goldman report now, expectations for the SMP 500 performance, excluding finance and energy, are quite high.

You can see that the consensus is very positive for the future and continues to rise. The graph shows how much the consensus has changed compared to actual results and performance so far. Except for the early part of 2023, the actual performance has always exceeded the consensus. But now, with the consensus like this, if this trend continues, it will probably come out even higher. It can be seen that there are no major issues in the long term. This can also be considered a hidden conclusion. A similar opinion is also presented by JP Morgan's Andrew Tyler. However, how does JP Morgan's trading desk view the outlook? They need to prepare for this week's stock market volatility. One reason is because of the CPI, and they have made some predictions on how the stock market will move according to CPI fluctuations.

If I may introduce, when the highest probability values are limited to an increase from 0.15 to 0.25, the S&P 500 can rise by 0.25% to 1%. We are still pushing for a rate hike in September with a tactically optimistic attitude, but our certainty has weakened slightly. Showing a slight tailing off like this indicates that Scott Kronmack of Citigroup also believes there is sufficient potential for further market gains until the end of the year, but we should be prepared for a temporary decline over the summer. Concerns lie in tech companies leading the market rise, as the market reflects growth expectations that individual companies find difficult to meet. Optimism and unilateral emotions towards major tech stocks have completely dominated the market. At some point this summer, there may be a slight setback.

Saying you're getting ready means what kind of subjective action guidelines are you talking about. We also acknowledge the weight of the tech-focused market and naturally recognize the market wind generated by the generative AI market. However, if there is a situation where new funds need to be executed, then adjusting the portfolio should be the stance. In that case, rather than buying more tech stocks, it would be better to buy stocks that will attract attention after the Fed's interest rate decision. Therefore, we recently bought financial stocks and also put weight on the consumer sector. The communication sector also looks constructive as a sector. It seems wise to prepare for a correction as well. This is the stance we will take. Ultimately, it is desirable to reduce the weight in overvalued areas and move funds to beneficiary stocks that can benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts. Let's also prepare for a correction in the stock market and make such forecasts.

While there is no guarantee that these stories will be accurate, in the end, let's summarize. Temporary adjustments may come in the summer, but no one is fundamentally saying there is a huge bubble in the U.S. stock market. It's just that there could be temporary downturns. The tech sector's bullish outlook is too prevalent. To explain the current high stock prices, the earnings need to be incredibly good. The market has already factored in optimistic future earnings, so there is a risk. Even if the earnings turn out quite well, if they don't meet the heightened market expectations, causing the stock prices to fall on the day of the earnings surprise, this kind of high volatility could occur. Therefore, if you are considering new investments, you might want to consider shifting towards sectors like technology, finance, or consumer goods that appear to have high volatility now. This is Citibank's perspective.

I think we can do it. The truth of this story will soon be confirmed. That's all for the video prepared for today. Please don't forget to subscribe and like. Thank you.

[홍장원의 불앤베어] 골드만삭스가 말하는 '전술적 약세'의 비밀은

월가에서 월급받는 부자되는 비법을 전수합니다!

매경 월가월부

골드만 삭스 보고서: 강세에서 약세 관점으로의 전환

제롬 파월은 당장의 경기 침체는 없지만 노동 시장이 약화될 경우 금리 인상의 필요성이 있을 것으로 보고 있습니다.

최근 골드만삭스는 포화된 매수세와 향후 몇 달 동안의 잠재적 변동성을 이유로 미국의 강세장에서 약세장으로의 전환을 고객에게 조언했습니다.

이 보고서는 또한 8월이 역사적으로 느린 투자 시기라고 강조합니다.

상위 SMP 500 종목에 대한 높은 시장 기대치

SMP 500 상위 10개 종목은 시장의 기대치가 지나치게 높아 주가 상승을 정당화하기 위해 더 큰 실적이 요구되고 있습니다.

골드만 삭스는 미국 주식 시장의 장기 상승 추세를 여전히 믿으면서도 여름에 전술적 후퇴를 제안합니다.

SMP 500 지수의 향후 실적에 대한 컨센서스는 매우 긍정적이며, 실제 실적은 지속적으로 기대치를 상회하고 있어 장기적으로 큰 문제는 없을 것으로 예상됩니다.

투자자를 위한 잠재적 시장 동향 및 전략

25%~1% 상승할 것으로 예상되지만 여름 동안 일시적으로 하락할 가능성이 있어 투자 포트폴리오 조정에 초점을 맞춰야 합니다.

씨티그룹의 스콧 크론맥은 시장의 추가 상승 가능성을 믿지만 특히 기술 섹터의 하락을 경고합니다.

이에 따라 고평가된 분야의 비중을 줄이고 금융 및 소비재 주식에 투자하며 연준의 금리 인하에 대비해 시장 조정에 대비하는 전략이 필요합니다.

미국 주식 시장은 큰 거품이 있는 것으로 보이지는 않지만 일시적인 침체에 대한 우려가 있습니다.

높은 주가는 기술 부문의 낙관적인 전망과 이를 뒷받침할 믿을 수 없을 정도로 좋은 실적의 필요성에 크게 영향을 받습니다.

실제 실적이 시장의 높아진 기대치를 충족하지 못하면 주가에 영향을 미쳐 변동성이 커질 위험이 있습니다.