Hello, welcome back after a week. Today, as always, my dear friend Gökalp is with us to discuss the day's agenda, economy, and cryptocurrencies. Welcome everyone. Gökalp, welcome, how are you doing? Good, we sent the lady away. You know, Biden was my competitor. Yes, he was your rival, bro. Biden not leaving, sticking to the seat, was creating stress. Let me dive into the topic. His departure and Kamala Harris currently at around 19%, that is, her potential candidacy, is creating another stress in the markets. We discussed this and said if Biden doesn't run and someone else comes in, we have two options. No, there will be two candidates. Currently, there is one candidate and one plant, and people will choose the candidate. We said in a scenario with two candidates, things can get mixed up because uncertainty will increase. In the Reuters poll, it immediately went up by two points. Now, looking at Real Clear Politics, Trump is still ahead, but concerning the economy and foreign policy.

People predict there will be uncertainty about where America is heading because the president could be Kamala. Now, she is receiving some criticism due to her performance in the previous period, but she is also seen as someone who can represent the Democrats well, convey their views, and implement those policies. On the one hand, Cal Harris was yesterday, if I remember correctly, we are recording this broadcast one day before today, on Wednesday. We were discussing Netanyahu's and Congress's story. We were saying if Trump comes, Trump will have a story in Europe and NATO. You are talking specifically. By the way, there may be some tension in Europe and NATO. On the other hand, even though he always says he will not continue war or war-like policies, he has a quite supportive stance towards Israel. We said these are all risks, and then we said these are all gold. Now we will explain the gold side. Netanyahu also came out and said, You should help us because we are protecting you. You should give us weapons as the vanguard force. This was either last week or a

Last week we talked, Trump also said, Give the hostages before I sit in the chair, I will speak differently when I come. Now, when you look at it from Trump's perspective, from a Republican conservative perspective, from an American local Midwestern perspective, there is a person who could create more stress in terms of foreign policy. We have seen his communication with Turkey, we know what they signed as soon as he came. Now, Kamala has also become a viable candidate. When Trump is seen from one side like this, it reflects negatively on the markets. Why negatively? Because in uncertainty, people are looking for excuses to sell. They sold Google, I looked at it, it dropped by 13%, there is a big collapse in their shares. It dropped by 0.04%, this is fantastic, amazing, incredible, outrageous. The total of the companies we call the Seven dropped by 5%, it dropped slightly. This is affecting the equity side a bit, we can say it's in a risk-off mode. On the other hand, it reflects on gold, reflects a bit on bitcoin.

They are selling slightly from the top. Last week, we pointed out that there was a slight upward band there, it's going up and down right now, you're making pinpoint shots, the American side is like this, there is a risk-off mode. There is a bit of this, of course, the stress in Asia is also contributing a bit. The stress in Asia and Beijing are both factors. In the mix, there is the anticipation of interest rate hikes. Next week, I think their meeting will increase by 0.1, so that's what we call an increase. Both interventions and this expectation of interest rate hikes have dropped to around 152 yen. So, despite the fact that it affects the Dollar Index slightly, one of the stresses in Asia is the selling of AI shares, both in Asia and in China, leading to sales in the Asia-Pacific region. Investment banks pointed to a sign for Asia around February-March. We talked about it here; a path of incentives plus interest rate cuts could be on the way for the second half of the year. We are experiencing that now. China has once again lowered it today from 2.5 to 2.3, isn't it the second time? It's the second time they've lowered it. Incentives were already in place there. There has been a long-standing trend of interest rate cuts in China.

I will talk about Turkey, then I will tie it to Bitcoin and hosting and farewell, then a tour of the lower Foyer, cocktails, cocktails, then farewell. Ladies and gentlemen, on the American side, there is nothing new in Europe. This week, beyond the critical data of selling shares, why is the upcoming PCE important? Because next week, the FED is there on July 31st. There is the FED on that side, exactly again on July 31st. Next week, now for the FED, nothing is expected at this meeting, but total interest rate cuts have already reached 2.5, 2.7, almost heading towards 3. Wow. Last week, I talked to you about 2.25, but I think they will do two. I am still in the same place, so it will be done in September. One will also be done in December, it seems to me. Will they skip November due to the election? Not because of the election, but I think wait a little more and see. Next week, we said there is the FED meeting, we said there is the BoE meeting, and although we know that nothing will happen before this, in this meeting, the upcoming PCE data, or a few macro indicators, you know, like the inflation indicator for America.

We know that they can cause a little stress for the elders or perceive it as an indicator and say something about it. I will go from here. This week, the risk-off mode will continue a bit shaky until Thursday or Friday, until the Fed. It came up to 16-20, the volatility index VIX, yes, it came up to the 16s. It can go further, there is more room. When I look at gold, around 1415-1420, now I said 1400, let me not say it, I looked at gold. On the other hand, 2420, 24, close to the all-time high of all time, close to 2480. You know what was seen there, but what caught my attention there is that ETFs made the most purchases in order. We were looking a little, not looking a little, you know, here. But I want to add this: these elders are doing this, but actually, we know that there are a few peaks in the total assets of ETFs. One of these was in 2012-2013. What was in 2013? In 2013, after the 2008 crisis, there were a lot of liquidity injections that followed by the Fed. They also went into gold. Just before that,

In the fall of 2011, the Summit had already seen gold, reaching around 1900. Now I am continuing with the ETF summit. In the ETF summit, the other one, in 2021, when I refer to the summit, I am talking about the total asset amount. In 2021, around the middle of the pandemic, and even before that, gold had reached 2063 dollars, which was very high for that day. After that day, they started selling. We know how many times we have said it here, in 2020, when the interest rate hike cycle began, the ETFs started emptying their positions. The future place is this; here we are building this analysis. Yes, they say the biggest construction of ETFs is here. However, the price of gold is currently at 2420. The current total assets of ETFs are at 2012 levels. During the interest rate hike cycle, ETFs bought. They bought during the interest rate hike cycle, from 2015 to 2022, they started emptying all they bought. Despite this, gold has not yet entered this game at 2420.

Now you will say that you are telling here, looking at the Golden Council, looking at the golden reports, here you are looking at the total water demand, ARS demand, you are looking at the ETFs, 2%, 3%, etc., let's say 5%, come on, Max, so, we used to say that we look at it as an indicator, a gauge, when you look at it like this, how much can a 2% or 3% demand affect the total price? So, the normal inference to be drawn from here is, while there are those who sell this much and empty positions, gold standing at 2420 is held by Central Banks and Retail perakens, now, the wave of ETFs being bought, scarce resources, of course, interest will fall again, go to a place, this job, and so on, the economy is in a mess, it will recover, the ETFs buying this again does not mean that Retail will not buy, does not mean that Central Banks will not buy, therefore, when looked at this way, in total demand, in the long term, I can roughly see this view in 2028-2030 term, looking at it like that, it seems like I can re-enter that cycle after quite a long analysis.

In that calendar, this also means the following: Central banks are always buying. Did I explain it? This is also equal to 2400-2420. The prices are still not bad for gold. I said the 2200-2400 regime can be maintained towards the end of the year. Personally, my opinion has not changed. Interest rate cuts are expected in the last quarter of the year, around September or October. Of course, the prices will be pushed up a bit more after the elections. The post-election period is crucial, especially after the elections in America. Based on these ideas, I think this way, but I also looked at what Goldman and other investment banks think. When there is a little movement in prices, people always do the same thing. They have raised all their forecasts and estimates. GP expects 2500 by the end of the year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects 2750, MUFG expects 2750, and Goldman Sachs expects 2650. They were not expecting these numbers before. When the prices went up, they immediately updated their expectations. I explained all of this within the context of the gold package. What do you expect? Normally, I said this: in December, the range will be between 2200 and 2400.

It's not very bad in my opinion, but I see that you are struggling to go down. On one hand, there are a lot of geopolitical risks. On the other hand, they are getting closer to cutting interest rates. We are at the end of July, August, September, there are 1 and a half months left. I see this interest rate cut as somewhat supportive, like gold, personally. But at the end of the year, there are still 5-6 months left. In a 5-month timeframe until the end of the year, this regime may not be sustained, this 2200-2400 regime may not be sustained. This also means that there are significant upward risks on the table. I always say something like this, there are upward risks on the table, meaning gold can go up further, it can go up further. Regarding 2028-2029, your analysis points towards 3,000 in price. It seems like it will go above 3,000. I'm just saying, your inflation calculation was based on historical peaks. The current level is not a historical peak, it's between 2600-2800 according to one, and according to another, it's 3200. Therefore, there is still room for it to go, so would you buy gold from here? I don't trade gold for 8 or 6 years.

The Japanese housewives are trading. Yes, so when your child was born, we put gold on him to trade. Would it have been worth a little more, right? Of course. By the way, we can also talk about this carry trade story with Japanese housewives. Let me add this as well. 2750, 2600, 2500 are flying in the air, we are almost there, but we said we have a room for 200-250 dollars to go for gold. So, you always say to me here, What about silver? Well, how much space is there for silver? Well done. Let's move on to silver. For silver, end-of-year predictions are around 32-33 dollars, now it's around 27 dollars, your prediction seems not bad, like 32-31-32 dollars. In gold, at 2500-250 levels, roughly equivalent to that, right? It might match around 26, so it might match gold there because silver is a bit oversold compared to gold in this period. Gold has dropped by 4% to 2372, silver has dropped to 27.90-28, but it has dropped by 4% from its peak. If you want, we can move on to Turkey, bro. The Central Bank did nothing, didn't tighten the Turkish Lira liquidity, money is pouring in on us, right? Mood is not improving, is it?

Since we are not increasing the interest rates, we are entering someone else's business, we are entering Scopa. So, in the past, there was a thing called fof. They still exist, you know, fans of fans. Only when it exceeds a certain amount, they could invest in you. So, if you have a hedge fund over 100 million dollars, if the total assets under management of the hedge fund are above that, a fof could invest in it. According to some pension funds or countries' own regulations, based on banking or, let's say, regulations like Ser py, the credit ratings need to be above a certain level for you to go to a country. Now, by suddenly increasing the rating like this, they might be saying, Go there, while the money is ready, there is a carry return in the dollar, earn some money from there. I don't know, but I think, you know, what has changed that we suddenly increased the rating by 2 points? Let this stay on the side, do you know a fantastic comment? The Central Bank might open swap channels right now without increasing interest rates. We were opening those channels, right? We were opening them in the long term to prevent volatility in the exchange rate. You will obviously need to hold it a little longer because the money is there while the dollar is like this.

It's coming. Obviously, the interest rates will stay here. Obviously, we will be considering interest rate cuts around September, October, November when we look at the inflation calculation. In this window, with the current volatility low and an almost fixed exchange rate at 32, 33, if you open the swap channels, speculation cannot be made there either. This is my ignorant opinion, but because if we don't do it today, we will do it one day. And when we do it one day, there will be a lot of steam accumulated in the pressure cooker. Look at 2025 or so. I will say it again now. We will discuss this in Trabzon. We are in Trabzon this weekend, but Trabzon will already be over. We talked about this in Trabzon this week, and we have been talking for quite a while. People are talking in a high tone for a while. They are talking about early elections. Yes, you were the first to say it. We are one of the first ones, I mean others might have said it too, but we are one of the first. They are talking about early elections. We said this with economic concerns; they said it with sociological concerns, but there is actually another reality, which is the discussions of the political actors about being elected again or not, you know, they don't fit into those crowds.

On the Central Bank side, it does not diverge negatively from other developing country currencies. It said it would maintain a tight stance without doing anything at the center and said, I am looking at inflation and again, if necessary, we can tighten a bit by cutting liquidity. They are already trying to tighten by reducing TL liquidity. On one hand, why don't they open the swap channel? There must be something else there, bro. Let me come to crypto a bit. There is an important news about the spot eum ETF in the crypto market. I checked how much money has entered. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 17 billion dollars has entered Bitcoin ETFs, and since the eum ETF opened, a net 107 million dollars has entered in just a couple of days. What were we expecting there anyway? We weren't expecting a bull to come roaring in like that. And it was going to be like this, slowly but surely. There is some movement in Ripple as well, still some expectations there. Is it the ETF expectation or not? No, it's the expectation of this lawsuit. They can push back the rest. Yes. On the other hand, we talked about Solana ETF with you, we said the futures side should open first. There is some movement there.

In general, the ecosystem of the cryptocurrency market has been separated from the global risky assets and stock markets. I see that it is now trying to return a little bit to normal. Volatility has come back. On our side, in Turkey, there is nothing new. As of this weekend, there is one week left. Regarding the digital platforms like ours, to say, I am here, I have the documents you requested, the coin basket will be available this week. You will be able to buy and sell as a few more new tokens have been added. What does coin basket mean, bro? It means, bro, that we were creating a basket here with you. Remember the live broadcast? There will be something like a basket there too. It will say, We recommend buying 110% of this, 5% of this, and 30% of this. If you have 100 liras, divide it like 30-10-10-10, okay? What if I don't have 100 liras but I have 1000 liras? Okay, if you have 1000 liras, you enter, press, and buy with all the weights. Great, exactly. Yes, creating a basket in a single move. Yes, mathematical models are working, but they can make mistakes. These models show how we work too.

It's a story of how we show formulas, you know, why didn't Abi add enough plugs for eum ETFs? For example, when eum ETFs entered the market, there was a festive atmosphere, everyone was excited, not everyone, let's say the general consensus was like that. Now, if a few calendars had come one after the other, was it possible? One of them was when eum ETFs were coming, we were expecting central banks to lower interest rates. But these didn't come one after the other, they didn't happen consecutively. It would have been good if they did. Yes, it's good when they happen consecutively, but they didn't happen. Abi, now, there is still room for two eum spot Ethereum ETFs to go further. The world doesn't change in a day, you know, we're talking about 100 to 107 million dollars. Yes, Black Rock is involved, Bitwise is involved, Fidelity is involved. They are already going to raise funds in this way. It hasn't even been two weeks since the last one, I mean, it's very recent. But we are not expecting this. Now, let me explain this again to those who are watching. A spot Bitcoin ETF, on the other hand, due to the scarcity of Bitcoin produced, as we mentioned in the previous broadcast, miners were net sellers. They were selling 300,000 pieces a year

When you look at it this way, the expectation that spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to attract demand is increasing due to the scarcity of Bitcoin being produced. For example, in Turkey, we are now discussing regulations. In Turkey, in the meantime, the world has also seen the emergence of the second largest spot Bitcoin ETFs in terms of volume, which means more participation in the game of spot Bitcoin ETFs. You asked about Ethereum. I will explain what will happen now. Miners will produce less, which means similar spot Bitcoin ETFs will not only be in America but also in other countries. For example, we are currently discussing regulations, which means defining this asset. When you define the asset, you asked earlier if it was a fund. Not now, but one day it will go there. When it goes there, institutions, portfolio management companies, and others will have to hold those assets. We are not the same as before in this regard. We used to be much more conservative 5 or 10 or maybe 15 years ago, now people are doing very innovative things. And of course, there will be things here too that they will want to be found. Turkey is not a very big market, but in a sense, when you look at it globally, there will still be a spread.

We are expecting it to continue, which means that soon, in the not too distant future, we will experience a scarcity issue in Bitcoin. The scarcity issue in Bitcoin means that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be purchasing them. Exchanges will be holding them. In fact, the total circulating supply on exchanges is around 3.3 to 3.5 to 4 million BTC, while there are about 19 million BTC in total. When we remove the products that have not moved for 7 years, around 15 million BTC remain after 78 years. The amount changing hands on exchanges is quantitatively in packages. There are those who buy packages of spot Bitcoin ETFs, there are those who buy futures, there are those who buy Micros. When we look at it this way, in the not too distant future, maybe in 2 to 5 years, we will start talking about scarcity in Bitcoin. At that time, the price will not be at these levels. On the other hand, in Ethereum, although we may not see something as fast as Bitcoin, there is a deflationary outlook there as well. By default, it decreases. So, looking at it this way, nothing changes from today to tomorrow. If Ethereum drops to 300 or something, we are not there yet, we are not there yet. It seems like we are just getting started in the game. Last year was with you.

While talking, again, at the KPT Fest with you, again with you, but Ken was talking. We were saying, We are just starting the game, wait a bit, stay calm, so at that time, was it 40,000, I don't remember, was it 35,000, what was it when Bitcoin came out? The product didn't immediately do anything, so no one should regret or be sad. Sir, you said buying gold for 2028 is a long term for me, but would you buy Bitcoin for 2028, K? Of course, I would. Of course, I would. Of course, I would. I would close my eyes and throw it. I also agree. We talked about it in the last broadcast, Z. People are saying 14010 thousand dollars, in a few years, so I would throw Bitcoin, um, I would throw it, and so on. Well, one more question. For the story of Bitcoin ETFs approaching gold ETFs at around 60%, should I tell you a sentence about why it will surpass that point? It's very simple. So, what is the price of Bitcoin now, around 60,000, let's say 63,000, 65,000. Anyway, what is the price of gold? 2400, is the possibility of gold going to 5,000 higher, or is the possibility of Bitcoin going to 120,000

If individuals do not demand, institutions do not buy pension funds, do not go and buy spot Bitcoin ETFs, and even if spot Bitcoin ETFs do not go and buy Bitcoin, even if supply and demand do not work today, we expect the price to be 120,000, not 65,000. One day, this equation will also come into play, so the net face value here, even if the nominal of the job does not change, if this remains the same, and only due to the price movement, the dollar equivalent of this will change anyway, the dollar equivalent of this will already exceed the price of gold. Also, the asset inside it will increase. We say 17 billion dollars inside, this expectation will be something like 18, 20, 30, 40. So with today's Bitcoin price, when the total ETF bought for 40 billion dollars reaches a price of 100,000, by default, it will already be 65 to 70 billion dollars. So there is definitely more to be eaten there. Let me add something very interesting. Then let's move on to the questions. I think cryptocurrencies will even compete with the Forex market, you know, they will become so big that they will compete even there, I think they have the potential. Now, let me give you a figure for the Forex market, it is a trillion-dollar market. Of course, every day.

A daily market of 6 trillion dollars, buddy. Today, the crypto market volume in the last 24 hours on July 25, 2024, is 85 billion dollars, right? I'm talking about the total volume today, not the total. The volume of only stable coins is 76 billion dollars. Therefore, these two need to be added up to 150 billion dollars today. Within these, there are no futures, no structured products, no ETFs. Why are there ETFs? If a TC or a Bitcoin is included in an ETF, then that Bitcoin must be traded, you know, somewhere, even in a remote village we haven't seen. Forex markets are quite ambitious, of course. I mean, 6 trillion dollars is a huge figure. The daily volume of Forex markets is 5.56 trillion dollars. By Forex markets, I mean the foreign exchange markets. That's the total volume of the foreign exchange markets. So, the fact that cryptocurrencies are approaching there, reaching there, let's say, reaching 1 trillion dollars in daily volume, when it reaches, the day we announce it, for example, this will indicate that it is roughly being used as money. Here, I will remind you of something: this volume, I bought it, you sold it, oh, he made a profit.

I don't know what the volume is, it's not passing like Mastercard, it's not showing like Mastercard, it's not showing like Visa, this is also in the other 5 trillion 6 trillion dollars interbank foreign exchange market, everything is there, I mean there are swaps written on top of it, that's there, can you understand? There is a swap written on top of the dollar in TL, all the money you use is there, so there is still a long way to go here. You said something very important, questions are being asked. Brother, I looked before the broadcast, they asked for a comment on the ounce, they asked Mehmet Emin Bey, we said it here from 212 to 32, now it went to 26 and will it come back to around 27? If I were you, I would consider buying when it retraces to around 25. They asked about Artificial Intelligence coin, Ocean AGI, etc., to directly relate it to the coin you see as Artificial Intelligence coin, it may not be an Artificial Intelligence coin, first know where it is used, know the products' prices are related and I leave the technical fundamental analysis to Berk Çim. I leave it to Berk, is it logical to switch from dollar to gold? Didn't it come last week? It comes every week, is it logical to switch from dollar to gold?

What did we say last week? We said no, we said no, bravo. Why did we say no? We expect the dollar to remain stable at the moment, but we expect it to make a significant move the day after tomorrow. We do not expect gold to rise too much, right? Bravo, that's exactly it. In this logic, we said no. Birgül Kalaycı asked, Atatürk, what do you think about Ching? Atatürk asked, I am Turkish. Ching said, You know, something about Oracle network is expecting over 15. Berk and our research team, let me say this here, I see it at $21 in the medium term. How about Chainlink, around $56, right? While we were talking, it hasn't moved much, for example. Yes, it's still there, but it has the potential, right? I'm talking about something else. When we were doing the first broadcast, you kept saying link, link, link, right? Yes, yes, are the questions over, bro? Now let's move on to the heart of the matter. Look at where the drum beats. Do it, don't do it, you stress me out every week. Sercan, how are you, do you like this style? Come on, tell me, it became like a thing, you know, it turned into something every time, it

The death card is showing. What do you see? The death card came up. I swear, it's a joke. This structure is sufficient. The technical expectation can lean a bit more towards this. It can go around 62, 60, 62. Sir, I don't expect him to lift his head from here until next week. I mean, I will be in Trabzon for the weekend. Yes, it went very well, super, excellent, fantastic. Yes, you didn't make aggressive comments there. I didn't, I shouldn't have, I couldn't, they really prevented me. Yes, Ali hocа was unsuccessful in terms of performance. [Laughter] We didn't make it, our team. Alright, we had enjoyable questions, we published them and so on. We listed the tone of the Telegram network, you know, that tone. So people will know it's super. Besides that, I wish everyone well, thank you very much. Thank you, I wish you a good Sunday. I also wish Kamala good luck, may her path be clear, may she have good luck. May her sword be sharp, sir. Good Sunday, good Sunday.

ALTIN COŞACAK DOLAR UÇACAK

ALTIN COŞACAK DOLAR UÇACAK