When you're valuing the companies and you discount back the future earnings, you talk about how many years out do you generally go? And if you don't go out a general number of years, how do you arrive at that time period? Well, that's that's a very good

question, and it's it's I mean it's the heart of investing or buying businesses, which we regard as the same thing, but and it is the framework in which we operate. I mean, we are trying to look at businesses in terms of what kind of

cash can they produce if we're buying all of them, or will they produce if we're buying part of them? And there's a difference. Uh, and then at what discount rate do we do we bring it back? And and I think your question was how far out do

we look at all that despite the fact that we can define that in in a very kind of simple and direct equation, you know, we are we we've never actually sat down and and and written out a set of numbers that uh to relate that equation. We do it in our heads in a way.

Uh, obviously I mean that's that's what it's all about, but there's no piece of paper uh and and and we never there never was a piece of paper that shows what our calculation on H-burg or See's Candy or the Buffalo News was in that

respect. Uh, so it would be attaching a little more scientific uh quality to our analysis than there really is if I gave you some gobbledygook about, well, we do it for 18 years and take a terminal value on and do all of this. Uh, we are

sitting at the in the office thinking about that question with each business or each investment and we we have discount rates in in a general way in mind but uh we really like the decision to be obvious enough to us that it doesn't require making a detailed

calculation and and uh uh it's the framework but it's not applied in the sense that we actually fill in all the variables is that a fair way stting at yeah Berkshire is is is being run the way Thomas Hunt Morgan the great Nobel laureate ran the

biology department at Caltech he banned the Frieden calculator which was the computer of that era and people said how can you do this every place else in Caltech we have Frieden calculators going everywhere and he said well we're picking up these great nuggets of gold just by organized

common sense and resources are short and we're not going to resort to any damn placer mining as long as we can pick up these major aggregations of gold that's the way Berkshire works and somebody once topped our staffing papers on some acquisition and of course not

only did we not have any staffing papers we didn't have any staff I don't know we have such a fingers and toes style around here halfway we just sort of count and yeah the I've never seen you know we Warren talks about these discounted cash flows

I've never seen him do one yeah if it is there are some things you only do in private Charlie if it isn't perfectly obvious that it's going to work out well if you do the calculation he tends to go on to the next idea yeah it it sort of AO it is

true you don't if you have to if you have to actually do it on with pencil and paper it's too close to think about I mean it ought to just kind of scream at you that you've got this huge margin of safety I mentioned the three ideas

the three ideas I should elaborate on one is that the think of yourself think of investing as owning a business and not and not buying something that's wiggles around in price and and and uh the second one is your attitude which ties in with that the attitude toward

the market that's covered in chapter 8 and if you have the proper attitude toward market movements it's an enormous help in securities and the final chapter is on the margin of safety which which means uh don't try and drive a 9,800 lb

truck over a bridge that says you know capacity 10,000 lbs but go down the road a little bit and find one that says capacity 15,000 lbs

“사금 채취하러 다니진 않을 거예요” #워런버핏 #찰리멍거

"우리네 삶과 투자에 알파의 가치를 더한다."

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투자 결정 시 현금흐름 할인 분석

할인된 현금 흐름 분석에 사용되는 기간에 대한 질문입니다.

비즈니스의 현금 창출 잠재력을 평가하는 데 집중하세요.

적절한 할인율에 대해 논의합니다.

공식적인 계산 없이 직관적으로 의사 결정을 내립니다.

과거 투자에 대한 자세한 계산은 문서화되어 있지 않습니다.

버크셔 해서웨이의 투자 접근 방식

자세한 계산 없이 직관적으로 의사 결정을 내릴 수 있습니다.

생물학에서 토마스 헌트 모건의 접근 방식과 비교.

상식적이고 쉽게 눈에 띄는 기회에 중점을 둡니다.

공식적인 인력 배치 및 상세한 인수 문서가 부족합니다.

워렌 버핏은 공식적인 할인된 현금 흐름 계산을 자주 사용하지 않습니다.

버크셔 해서웨이 투자 철학의 핵심 원칙

가격 변동에 대한 투기가 아니라 비즈니스를 소유하는 것으로 투자를 고려하세요.

시장 움직임에 대한 올바른 태도의 중요성.

투자 결정에 있어 안전 마진을 강조합니다.

버크셔 해서웨이 투자 전략의 할인 현금흐름 분석

기업 가치 평가에서 미래 수익을 할인하는 데 사용되는 기간에 대한 질문입니다.

전체 또는 부분 소유권을 고려하여 비즈니스의 현금 창출 능력을 평가하는 데 중점을 둡니다.

적절한 할인율과 분석 기간에 대해 논의합니다.

표준화된 서면 계산 프로세스의 부재로 직관적으로 의사 결정이 이루어집니다.

지나치게 과학적인 접근 방식은 거부하고, 공식적인 방식보다 직관적인 프로세스를 사용합니다.

버크셔 해서웨이의 투자 철학: 직관적인 접근 방식

복잡한 계산이 필요 없는 명확하고 분명한 투자 결정에 중점을 둡니다.

복잡한 도구보다 상식을 우선시하는 칼텍의 토마스 헌트 모건의 경영 스타일과 비교.

투자 전략을 설명하기 위해 '사금 채굴' 대신 '금 덩어리를 줍는 것'에 비유했습니다.

공식적인 인력 채용 서류 또는 인수에 대한 세부 프로세스가 부족합니다.

할인 현금흐름 분석의 실제 적용

투자는 분명해야 하고 복잡한 계산이 필요하지 않아야 하며, 안전 마진이 커야 합니다.

가격 투기가 아닌 비즈니스 소유권으로 투자를 고려하는 것의 중요성.

버크셔 해서웨이 투자 접근 방식의 핵심 원칙

시장 변동에 대한 올바른 태도의 중요성.

위험한 투자를 피하고 안전 마진에 중점을 둡니다.

안전 여유도를 설명하기 위해 충분한 무게 용량을 가진 다리를 선택하는 비유입니다.