As we look back at the global stock market, we will also raise investment signals. I am here with Isuri, the head of Economic Research. Welcome. Hello, nice to meet you. Powell was cautious as usual, but recently, he has been opening up the possibility of a rate hike in September. This led to a significant rise in tech stocks in the US market. Currently, the three major indices in the US market are also showing positive signs. Especially after the market closed last night, Meta's performance exceeded expectations, showing strong momentum. Let's take a look at the global stock market together. We are ready with the first issue. Let's see it on the screen. The first issue is the earnings announcements of Apple, Amazon, and Intel, the big tech companies. The earnings announcements are scheduled for early tomorrow. There is curiosity about the strong performance of Apple, Amazon, Intel, and other big tech companies.

Because the part regarding performance is moving quite sensitively, it seems necessary to check the detailed data more carefully in the market guidance. I am curious if our CEO expects Intel, Amazon, and Apple's big tech performance to be good. Also, could you share your thoughts on Microsoft's performance? First of all, now we also need to distinguish a bit in terms of AI, so we might need to look at it more closely. So, broadly speaking, in fact, when it comes to AI in the future, if I were to give a forecast, in the short term, it seems a bit unclear. This is the situation we are currently observing. Therefore, in the case of NVIDIA, for example, with revenue exceeding 200 trillion, you may wonder what that means. But in fact, looking at recent trends, the performance of companies producing AI chips has been quite good. Of course, in the case of NVIDIA, it is a bit better than expected.

Although it showed weak performances, now, in the case of yesterday, AMD has announced quite disappointing results. Therefore, chip demand is still being warned. The problem is that companies that are entering the AI data center construction or generative AI field as latecomers have not yet confirmed the actual connection to revenue or profitability due to AI. So, it is still considered to be in the investment stage, and especially in the generative AI field, I think there is still a long way to go. Even if we look at the companies that are considered to have the best technology among them, the reality is not perfect. Sometimes, incorrect answers come out a bit randomly as keywords, so in fact, I see that there is still a long way to go in the generative AI field in the future.

I believe there are some technical challenges. Anyway, currently, companies that have adopted AI services in the United States account for less than 10% overall. Therefore, although the demand for chips is still high, it is necessary to keep an eye on the generative side. It would be helpful to take this into consideration. Anyway, when we look at related stocks now, the expectations for performance are significantly high. However, the problem is that these related companies are actually failing to meet these expectations. Such tendencies are being shown. Therefore, when we consider the momentum, it is true that the expectations have weakened compared to before. If we look at it from an investment perspective, I think there is a need to be a bit cautious. This is the situation I am currently observing.

Apple, as one of the big tech companies, still has some earnings announcements left. Ultimately, companies need to show better performance than the market expectations, like AMD. From the perspective that such good trends can continue, it might be better to carefully approach the big tech companies and check their performance once again, rather than rushing. It is suggested to carefully consider approaching them. Latecomers in the field of generative AI may have doubts about their performance and profitability, so it is advisable to be cautious when approaching. Today's announcements from Apple, Amazon, and Intel, these big tech companies, do not necessarily perform well just because the market is doing slightly better. Satisfying detailed data and achieving good results are necessary for the stock prices to rise, so caution is needed.

As you mentioned, in such a volatile market where movements are sensitive to detailed data, there is some volatility in performance. What would be a good strategy to deal with this? First of all, it seems like it's not necessarily the case that stock prices move only after the performance is announced. I think it's better to look at it this way. First of all, if we take a closer look, in reality, it may not be the case that stock prices move only after the performance is announced. If we make some predictions, it seems that companies like Apple have a good chance of revenue recovery. Especially, in the case of iPhones, sales have been sluggish in China, but recently, with some discounts, they have managed to deal with their inventory to some extent. It seems that the performance will be better compared to the previous quarter. The problem is that the market is actually more sensitive to AI performance.

In the case of Apple, they are somewhat of a latecomer in terms of AI, so the awareness of costs seems to be much stronger. Due to this situation, it might be necessary to keep an eye on this aspect a bit more, don't you think? I would like to mention that the iPhone 16 series is expected to be released in September, so there is some anticipation. However, considering that there could be increased volatility after the performance announcement, it might be better to wait and see for now. Additionally, in the case of Amazon, they are essentially a latecomer in the AI production field. Despite the likelihood of significant costs becoming more apparent, Amazon's main business has always been in the cloud sector.

In the cloud sector, the profit margin has been continuously expanding, so overall, I am expecting a somewhat weak performance. I think the main issue now is actually Intel. From the first quarter, the guidance for the second quarter has been significantly lowered. Therefore, it seems that the performance may not be good. Many disappointing reports have come out, saying, What if it's around $40? In fact, the situation is not that great even now. In the case of Intel, if we consider them as rivals to Samsung Electronics in Korea, they used to be strong in the CPU sector, but recently, with the shift to the GPU trend, they have been a bit late in investing here.

It seems like there is a slight but noticeable decrease in market share, and currently, Samsung Electronics is falling behind TSMC. Due to this situation, there are talks about cutting costs and restructuring to deal with the competition. Performance in the second quarter is not expected to be promising. Therefore, it is advisable to monitor the situation comprehensively. Since opinions are divided, it seems difficult to make definitive conclusions. However, upcoming announcements regarding chip quantities and the performance of other key players are still pending. It might be wise to keep an eye on these developments.

Apple, Amazon, and Intel asked us to take a look at the earnings to be announced after the market closes today. So far, we have discussed the stories based on the performance of big tech companies. Also, last night, there was a possibility of a September interest rate cut by the FMC. Now, when it comes to the outlook for big tech companies, well, if there is an interest rate cut, growth stocks are the only option, right? As a result, more funds become available for investment, creating a more favorable environment. We view these aspects positively. However, semiconductor-related stocks have already priced in a lot of expectations, so if we look at these factors, the upward momentum may be somewhat limited for the time being. This is how we see it. In any case, it seems that now is a good time for growth stocks to thrive.

I feel like the reflection may have been a little rushed. This is the situation where we need to make judgments. First, we need to look at the third-quarter performance and the second-half performance. In fact, when we look at most related stocks excluding AI chips, many companies are currently adjusting their performance guidance for the third and fourth quarters. Therefore, it is necessary to check the performance more thoroughly now. Actually, just last year and even in the first half of this year, despite poor performance, stocks related to AI just rose based on expectations. In fact, I think that time was a bit exaggerated. Because now, as we open the lid, the performance is not as good as expected. It is true that the momentum has weakened in the short term. However, if we look at it from a medium to long-term perspective, the essence of the industry is still there.

I can't deny it a bit, so in any case, now innovation requires investment again, so in a way, I think it's necessary even now. Depending on whether I view AI-related stocks in the short term or in the medium to long term, it seems like it would be good to adjust the investment strategy a bit. The high expectations for AI from big tech companies are already reflected, and it is necessary to carefully observe the fact that guidance is being downwardly adjusted. However, if guidance is being downwardly adjusted, in a way, it may also lead to discussions about AI bubbles. How do you view this situation? First of all, I believe there is a bubble. But as I mentioned earlier, in fact, such bubble periods are necessary so that ultimately many good technologies emerge.

I am looking at the fact that there was the IT bubble in the early 2000s, and because of that era, just like we use our cell phones and laptops without any hesitation now, it seems like we are now entering a time when AI is being taken for granted. Therefore, in any case, it seems inevitable that discussions about the bubble will naturally arise. In fact, these aspects have been reflected a lot in performance, ultimately shifting the focus from revenue to expenses. However, eventually, through this investment process, it is recognized that this can be transformed into revenue later on. As I mentioned earlier, in the short term, it may seem like a bubble, but looking at it from a medium to long-term perspective, it is seen more as an investment for growth.

In the short term, there may be some debate about whether it's a bubble or not. While short-term evaluations may lead to the conclusion of a bubble, in the medium to long term, it's actually seen as an investment opportunity. Opinions on growth prospects have been presented. Next, we will look at investment signals in the domestic stock market. Let's meet on the screen. In July, pharmaceuticals and biotech were the pillars, and August is here. In July, while semiconductors were shaky, pharmaceuticals and biotech shined brightly. Will the same trend continue in August? It seems likely to continue now. Because positive factors continue to emerge, and reasons for only going up are constantly coming out, as seen in the U.S. presidential election situation. First of all, the Biosecurity Law is...

You must have heard a lot, so even if someone becomes a candidate, it seems inevitable to push forward. In any case, from the U.S. perspective, it seems like they have no choice but to contain China. This is something that the government itself is handling, so if you look at it from a national perspective, it seems like they are handling it. First of all, for those who have heard a lot about the Biosecurity Law, as you may know, it means that the U.S. will no longer use China's medical services. Simply put, if that happens, where will the orders go? Ultimately, they will have no choice but to return to allied countries. Of course, CDMO companies are not only in Korea but also widely present in Europe, so we cannot expect to benefit 100%, but if we can secure a certain level of orders, naturally, there will be some benefits domestically.

CDMO and CMO companies can be connected to some revenue of companies, and it is now clear that this part is expected to be somewhat damaged. CDMO companies are expected to grow by an average of over 10% in the future. In fact, the bio-pharmaceuticals are increasing significantly. It is said that it will grow to around 1 trillion won in 2028. However, if bio-pharmaceuticals are disposed of now, it will also generate a lot of carbon revenue. Therefore, from the perspective of companies, there is a high possibility of giving orders to CDM companies that reduce pollution, as the bio-pharmaceutical market grows. Eventually, it seems that CDM companies will have to grow together as the bio-pharmaceutical market grows, and recently, regulations on new drug approvals.

It seems that there will be some relaxation. So, in the case of the United States, in a broader sense, medical costs and medication costs are quite expensive. Ultimately, to lower this, a lot needs to be produced. The most effective way to implement this seems to be through biosimilar companies. Therefore, if medication costs are high, it will inevitably lead to a burden on the U.S. finances. Because of this, it seems that this will have to be implemented soon. I would like to suggest paying attention to domestic companies. When Trump was president, the regulations for new drug approvals were not relaxed. However, on the contrary, nowadays, with Kamala Harris's rising approval ratings...

If Harris were to become, I'm curious about your outlook on the pharmaceutical bio sector. I see it as similar. Oh, similar, why? Because ultimately, this discussion of biosecurity wasn't something Trump created; it's been around since before. In fact, if we compare the United States and China a bit, you can think of this as affecting all industries. And from the perspective of the United States, if China grows and competitiveness emerges, ultimately it will serve to stimulate a bit of competition. So, whether it's Harris or Trump, there's no need to distinguish between them. Not only in the field of biopharmaceuticals, but also in other industries, there is some form of restraint ongoing. Consequently, I think the impact on political issues may be somewhat lessened, viewing it this way. Political issues, whether it's the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, what [END OF TRANSCRIPT]

The story is about boiling, and there is also an outlook that the entire sector will rise due to expectations of interest rate hikes. Some are talking about the possibility of a correction in the bio sector. How do you see this? Well, I believe that a period of adjustment could indeed occur. Ultimately, even though many have risen, when a stock reaches a certain point, profit-taking is inevitable. So, I think a period of adjustment could certainly come. This is how I see it. However, we need to look at the reasons for the decline. If there are no negative factors damaging the fundamentals, it could be a healthy correction phase. Therefore, if you approach it from a new perspective, it is better to buy cheaply than expensive. So, in fact,

When we look at the bio industry now, there aren't many negative factors. Of course, we need to look at individual aspects, but overall, the atmosphere is very positive. Especially, foreign buying pressure has been consistently coming in. So, considering the current situation where the three elements are aligning, if there is a correction, it might actually be welcomed from a new perspective. The overall atmosphere in the pharmaceutical and bio industries is good, there are discussions about performance improvement, and policies are supporting them, so everything seems good. Some even mentioned that it's okay to consider a strategy of buying on a dip. Today, when we look at our domestic stock market, we cannot avoid talking about Celltrion. With ongoing reports about the validity of the merger between Celltrion and Celltrion Pharm, the pharmaceutical sector dropped more than 8% today. Even if you buy now,

Would it be okay? You should probably double-check a bit. This is actually due to overall negative factors in the bio sector. I think we need to individually verify some issues related to Celltrion. In the case of pharmaceuticals, in fact, if you look at today, a lot of trading volume has been concentrated. So, for the time being, it seems necessary to check the bottom a bit. However, looking at the overall atmosphere, as I mentioned earlier, the situation in the simular sector can only improve significantly. Therefore, in the long run, I believe that there could be a quick recovery. That's the situation I see, but anyway, considering that there is a flood of selling pressure today, it seems necessary to confirm the bottom in the short term.

I will provide a little tidying up as it seems necessary. Yes, you should continue to check this news blog to confirm if it is more accurate and approachable. Today's news is that Ryl 1 Lee has received domestic marketing approval. How does it look regarding the obesity sector? For now, you should keep an eye on obesity treatments. The market is bound to grow significantly, and it is still in the early stages of growth. Especially in the case of obesity treatments, they have not been widely commercialized in Korea yet, so blockbuster-level products have not been developed. Therefore, it is a time for investments. As time goes by, people's interest in beauty will inevitably increase.

So, in this case, the market for drugs will only grow bigger. Yes, this is the current situation we are observing. In practical terms, when Novono Disk released their new product, the response was quite positive. Therefore, the demand continues to exist. If you take a look at domestic companies, recently, in terms of market capitalization, it seems to be around 3 trillion. The stock price is very good, especially with the oral medication for obesity in Japan. It seems that they will supply oral medication for obesity. In practical terms, they are showing good performance now. So, it might be good to keep an eye on it. However, one thing to consider as a risk factor is that compared to biosimilar and CDMO sectors, there is a bit of a value burden. Therefore, it may be more of a chase to buy than to sell.

Rather than asking you to do it, I would suggest that it might be better to start looking at it more closely when it is pressed a little more against the highs. So, are there any stocks in the domestic stock market, besides Cheil Jedang in the obesity treatment sector, that you are paying more attention to? Well, for now, I still see Cheil Jedang as a top contender. In the long run, I think the oral sector may have to go a bit further. Originally, the injectable sector took the lead, but now the development seems to be progressing first in this area, such as with oral medications. In the case of injectables, there may be some limitations in the long run, don't you think? It's quite cumbersome, and you have to keep taking it, so if oral medications continue to be developed and become more convenient, and if the convenience is improved.

If you say that the price is cheap, in the end, the warning side will inevitably receive more attention. Therefore, I am still considering that Cheondang may continue to stand out in the obesity treatment market. If we look at the injection side, in fact, the most rapidly progressing in clinical trials is due to Hanmi Pharmaceutical, so you might want to keep an eye on Hanmi Pharmaceutical. Yes, I would like to mention that in the obesity treatment market, from Cheondang Pharmaceutical to Hanmi Pharmaceutical, it might be worth paying attention. You mentioned about the domestic stock market, and the only one widely used by people is Xultophy, right? If you read articles, Xultophy also prevents the progression of Alzheimer's disease. From here, it could gain additional momentum, and most of the focus is on obesity treatments, whether it's diabetes or others, the substance itself is a bit.

It's similar. Most of the time, now, there are quite a lot of GLP-1-related situations. I am looking at whether the momentum in that area could naturally be connected. Most companies are now merging and developing together. So, now when it comes to obesity treatment, ultimately, due to the trend of diabetes following, naturally, that aspect could also gain momentum. Especially recently, if you look, the number of diabetic patients is increasing significantly. So, when looking at these aspects, I see it as somewhat positive. Moreover, in the field of biopharmaceuticals, after oncology, diabetes is taking up a significant portion. Therefore, if momentum is gained in this area as well, in the future, could this premium expand further? This is what I am considering.

I understand. I have talked about the pharmaceutical and biotech industries. Before we listen to the stock of interest for tomorrow, we have some time now. Isn't it August 1st tomorrow? How do you see the overall market before August 1st? First of all, what I consider important is how semiconductor stocks will flow in the future. This is the most crucial point. I have been keeping an eye on it. Recently, the volatility has been quite strong. In Korea, stocks like NVidia and big tech companies are heavily influenced, right? This is the situation I am observing. Also, the earnings announcements of big tech companies have not been completed yet, so we still need to be cautious. Therefore, ultimately, in the short term, whether it's just a sharp decline or a rebound following an excessive decline, it really depends on the trend.

I need to see if I can rewind. Until this week, I need to keep an eye on it a bit. The reason is, in cases like investment funds, they are actually gradually reducing the weight of semiconductors. In fact, once the investment comes in, we don't change this portfolio well. It means that if we have significantly reduced the weight in the short term, the leading industries could change again in the second half of the year. Considering this situation, I think it's important to watch the flow of semiconductors for now. Also, there could be increased volatility until the presidential election. From that perspective, rather than having high expectations for just one stock, it might be better to diversify your portfolio. Specifically, when semiconductors are excluded, where does the demand flow to in the bio sector?

If we look at this part, the first one is Biotech. Biotech is now a representative growth stock. As Angela also mentioned earlier, ultimately, the expectation for a rate cut leads to the revival of growth stocks. Naturally, I mentioned that growth stocks have no choice but to rise. However, in fact, the sector that attracts the most investment is Biotech. Conversely, if there is a shortage in semiconductors, where will it go? Ultimately, it will have to focus on Biotech first. And until the presidential election, it seems that risk aversion will play a strong role, so financial stocks could also become an option. It might be good to turn your attention to relatively stable stocks in that sector. Specifically, in terms of defensive stocks.

I would like to suggest looking at consumer goods and food sectors together. In August, it can go well with the semiconductor-led sector, but there may be volatility until the presidential election, so it was summarized as a financial-led alternative. So, what stocks should we pay attention to for tomorrow? Well, I think looking at Samsung Biologics would be good. Earlier, I mentioned the CDMO sector, and now, Samsung Biologics is a stock that can benefit the most from the biosecurity law. It is undoubtedly the top CDMO company in Korea and always ranks within the top 5 globally. I also mentioned a CDMO company in China earlier. Next, you should look at WuXi Biologics, which is a big company. Ultimately, they have the most orders related to the United States.

As it is a company with a high possibility of receiving, it is quite prestigious in terms of this CDM, and now it can also benefit a lot from the bio-similar side. Samsung Bio is now considering bio-similar business in its subsidiary. Recently, there are about nineteen pipelines in the Humira bio-similar area, and the revenue has exceeded 800 billion won just here. Eventually, as the bio-similar market grows, it seems inevitable that your company will also grow. It would be good to keep an eye on this part. Also, recently, the platform growth related to ADC is continuing, and it seems that the factory will be completed in December. Therefore, in the future, the importance of antibody-drug conjugates will continue to be emphasized. So, it seems that the next-generation anti-cancer cell therapies are gaining a lot of attention these days.

I am in a situation where I am receiving it, but actually, I think that rather than directly developing new drugs, we may benefit more from the CDM side. Looking at the ADC side, in fact, there is not a single domestic company that has commercially developed it yet. And overall, when we look at bio-companies in our country, compared to big pharma companies, the technological capabilities are not that great. They are mostly following as latecomers. So, even without taking risks and developing new drugs, we can actually benefit more from the production side. Also, since there are companies in our country that have production facilities, the biggest potential can be seen here. It would be good to pay attention to Samsung Biologics, where you can see the highest potential. Today, we are experiencing some corrections.

At the last minute, if you pull it up, it would be good to catch it when the purchase price is around 900,000 won. As for the target price, it would be good to consider around the 110,000 won level from a somewhat long-term perspective. Yes, you introduced Samsung Biologics, and news about reaching the 4 trillion won annual sales club continues to come out, right? Then, can we also look forward to good performance in the second half of the year? I think it can only get better from now on. Also, starting from the second quarter, there is a significant impact of the Biosecurity Law, you know. Therefore, practically, now our country's Lego Chem, originally the customer was actually towards the Ushi Biologics side, but recently they are trying to shift towards Samsung Biologics. Ultimately, it seems that they will really start moving from the U.S., so domestically.

Companies are preparing for the future, and accordingly, there is a significant increase in production inquiries. This won't be reflected immediately, but it seems that it will be realized more substantially from the third quarter and fourth quarter. Also, with the expected passage of the Biosafety Law within this year, good performance in the second half of the year is inevitable, leading to positive prospects for next year. Considering these points, I am feeling quite optimistic. Samsung Biologics also has expectations for the third and fourth quarter performance, as well as high hopes for the Biosafety Law. This concludes our discussion for today. Thank you for being with us so far with CEO Lee Soo-ri from Economic Research. Thank you.

[투자 시그널 ②] 글로벌 증시 투나잇 / 이슬이 이코노미리서치 대표 / 삼성바이오로직스 / 매일경제TV

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