독일의 연정 위기: 숄츠, 린트너 재무장관 해임

### 독일 정치의 혼란: "신호등" 연합의 붕괴
* ⚖ 사회민주당(SPD), 녹색당, 기민당으로 구성된 '신호등' 연정은 **2021년 출범 이후 예산 정책과 경제 전략을 둘러싼 이념적 갈등**이 계속되고 있습니다.
* 💥 연립정부가 **우크라이나 전쟁, 에너지 위기, 인기 없는 난방법 등 여러 위기에 대처**하면서 긴장이 고조되었고, 이는 대중의 반발을 불러일으키고 연립정부 구성원 간의 관계를 더욱 긴장시켰습니다.
* 📉 독일의 엄격한 '부채 브레이크' 규정이 도입되면서 상황은 더욱 악화되었고, 특히 **사민당과 녹색당은 기후 변화와 경제 침체를 해결하기 위해 더 많은 자금을 요구**한 반면 **기민당은 이에 저항**하면서 정부 차입을 둘러싼 치열한 논쟁이 벌어졌습니다.
* 🚨 2023년 11월 6일, 올라프 숄츠 총리는 **크리스티안 린드너 재무장관을 해임하는 결단력 있는 조치**를 취하여 연정의 중대한 붕괴를 예고하고 정치적 이익을 위해 연정을 탈퇴하려 했다는 추측 속에서 **린드너의 의도에 대한 의문**을 제기했습니다.
* 🗳 대중의 지지율이 급락하고 경제가 흔들리면서 연립정부는 조기 선거의 위협에 직면했고, 숄츠는 **2024년 1월 15일로 예정된 불신임 투표**에 대비하고 있습니다.
* 📅 숄츠가 투표에서 패배하면 독일 대통령에게 의회 해산을 요청할 수 있으며, **야당 지도자와 재계 단체의 신속한 해결 압박**이 거세지면서 **이르면 2024년 3월 30일에 선거**가 치러질 가능성이 있습니다.
* 🌍 특히 도널드 트럼프가 미국 대통령으로 재선되면서 국제 관계의 중요한 시기에 안정적인 리더십을 상실한 유럽연합의 경제 강국인 **독일의 정치적 불안정**은 유럽에 상당한 위험을 초래하고 있습니다.
* 🔍 연정의 미래가 여전히 불확실한 상황에서 독일은 **또 다른 취약한 연립 정부**에 직면할 수 있으며, 정쟁이 지속될 위험이 있고 시급한 외교 정책 과제를 해결하는 데 있어 연정의 역할이 더욱 복잡해질 수 있습니다.

독일의 정치적 혼란은 숄츠 총리가 린드너 재무장관을 해임하면서 연립정부 붕괴를 예고하면서 더욱 심화되었습니다.

Trump winning the US elections wasn’t the only news this week. Germany tried to do 1 better: Collapse the ruling coalition. After three years in power, Olaf Scholz has fired his Finance minister, the leader of one of the 3 parties in his coalition. The so-called “Traffic Light” coalition—uniting the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in red, the FDP in yellow, and the Greens—was marked by conflicts from the start, with ideological divides over budget policies and economic strategy. The coalition’s approval ratings had sunk to new lows too, making this breakdown feel almost inevitable. Now, this crisis could lead the German president to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. But before diving into these options, let’s look at the background and unravel what led to this turning point. The three-party coalition was formed in 2021 after Olaf Scholz’s SPD narrowly won with just 25.7%

of the vote. Ideologically, the parties were worlds apart: the SPD and Greens leaned left, focusing on welfare and environmental reforms, while the FDP championed a market-driven economy with minimal government intervention. Despite these divisions, they forged ahead with Scholz as Chancellor, Habeck as Vice Chancellor, and Lindner as Finance Minister. From the outset, the coalition faced crisis after crisis: the war in Ukraine, an energy crunch, and the highly unpopular Heating Law, which citizens widely despised for its impact on household expenses and which fueled fierce tensions within the coalition. Then came the biggest sticking point: Germany’s strict “debt brake” rule, which limits government borrowing. While the SPD and Greens argued for more borrowing to tackle the climate crisis and economic stagnation, the FDP pushed back hard. Tensions reached a peak in November 2023,

when Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled that leftover pandemic funds couldn’t be diverted to climate projects. The court’s decision closed off €60 billion the coalition had counted on, leaving a massive funding gap and intensifying the coalition’s struggle to find a way forward. The coalition parties also faced disaster in recent elections: the EU vote and local elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Saxony saw the FDP shut out of all 3 state parliaments, while the Greens barely made it into one. By October and November, the coalition found itself grappling with three deeply interconnected crises. First, plummeting approval ratings. With national elections less than a year away, public support for the coalition had cratered, putting its future in jeopardy. Second, a slumping economy. Germany is heading into its second year of recession, with corporate icons like Volkswagen preparing to close three factories

and lay off tens of thousands of workers. And third, a budget deadlock for 2025. With a €10 billion funding gap and Germany’s strict “debt brake” rule in place, the coalition struggled to shape a budget that was both realistic and constitutional. Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the FDP pushed against any new borrowing, while the Greens argued that borrowing was essential to drive economic growth and tackle climate goals. With these three issues simmering, the coalition’s last weeks played out like a political thriller. On October 23, Robert Habeck of the Greens released a strategic paper calling the debt brake a “growth brake” and proposing a massive “Deutschlandfonds” for economic and infrastructure investment—without consulting coalition partners. Predictably, this move angered Finance Minister Christian Lindner, whose FDP staunchly opposes debt. A week later, Chancellor Scholz held a summit with large industry leaders,

while Lindner met separately with medium-sized businesses. The split meetings drew massive criticism, as many rightfully questioned why coalition leaders weren’t uniting on crucial economic issues. Scholz only added fuel to the fire by announcing follow-up talks—again excluding both Habeck and Lindner. Then, on November 1, Lindner responded with his own paper, calling for an “economic turnaround” with proposals to cut corporate taxes, reduce bureaucracy, and trim climate funding—essentially a counter-manifesto to Habeck’s approach, echoing opposition rhetoric. On November 3 and 4, Scholz attempted to broker a compromise, bringing his coalition partners together to hash out the 2025 budget. In a last-ditch offer, Habeck suggested redirecting €10 billion, initially earmarked for an Intel factory in eastern Germany,

to Lindner to help balance the budget. However, negotiations broke down, and on the evening of November 6, Chancellor Scholz made a bold move: he fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, signaling the end of the coalition. Those are some very strong words. Scholz ain't happy. Lindner's actions have sparked plenty of speculation. Some believe he planned to leave the coalition all along and intentionally proposed an economic strategy he knew the SPD and Greens would reject. After all, Lindner's FDP is currently polling below the 5% threshold needed to remain in the Bundestag, and leaving the coalition could be his best shot at winning back voters. Publicly, however, Lindner paints a different picture. His response to Scholz's accusations was equally harsh: These two definitely don't have a lot of love for each other! And what really went down in their

one-on-one meeting? Well, we may never know. Germany is now governed by the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, with Scholz still serving as Chancellor—though now without a majority in parliament. So, what’s next? There are three options: Option 1: Scholz could try to form a new coalition, possibly with the CDU. However, this is unlikely, as the CDU leader has already ruled out joining the government. Option 2: Scholz could lead a minority government until the elections in September next year. However, without majority support to pass his budget, this option is impossible. That means the only realistic option is early elections. Early elections can be triggered by a no-confidence vote, which Scholz has already scheduled for January 15. He expects to lose, with only the SPD and Greens backing him. This loss would allow Scholz to request that President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolve parliament.

If Steinmeier agrees, he has up to 21 days to decide, after which new elections would need to be scheduled within 60 days. The German Press Agency currently suggests March 30 as the most likely election date. However, pressure is mounting for quicker action, with opposition leader Friedrich Merz calling for a confidence vote as early as next week. Additionally, trade and business associations are urging early elections to restore stability to the government. But in the end, only Chancellor Scholz has the authority to call a confidence vote. To be honest, this couldn’t come at a worse time for Europe. Donald Trump, a known sceptic of NATO, Ukraine, and the EU, has just been re-elected as U.S. President. Now, with Germany—the EU’s strongest economy—paralyzed by political turmoil, Europe is left without a stable leader on the international stage. Even if new elections are called, they could

result in months of coalition negotiations, as no single party is likely to secure over 50% of the vote. The Christian Democrats are the most likely to win, but they would need a coalition partner, potentially the SPD. If their combined votes fall short, however, Germany may be looking at another fragile three-party coalition, risking similar gridlock in the future. In any case, a swift resolution is essential for Germany to regain its footing and provide the leadership Europe urgently needs on critical foreign policy issues. And if you’re curious about why exactly, don’t miss our in-depth video on why a Trump presidency poses such serious risks for Europe. We’ve outlined six key challenges that Europe must be prepared to counter. Thank you for watching, please subscribe and like the content. Also a massive shout out to our contributor, Stephen who helped with the video. And of course, thank you to our Patreon community.

especially our presidents: Hjvd, BJ, Pieter, Christin, Jan, and Sjoukje. And if anyone else wants to support us, please sign up to Patreon, link below.

German Government COLLAPSES! New Elections! What Now?

EU Made Simple

올라프 숄츠가 재무장관을 해임하면서 집권 3년 만에 여당 연립정부가 붕괴했습니다.

2021년에 결성된 '신호등' 연립정부는 이념적 분열과 낮은 지지율로 어려움을 겪었습니다.

독일 대통령은 이제 의회를 해산하고 새로운 선거를 실시해야 하는 상황에 직면해 있으며, 3월 30일이 유력한 날짜로 거론되는 가운데 신속한 조치를 취해야 한다는 압박이 거세지고 있습니다.

독일 헌법재판소가 팬데믹 기금을 기후 프로젝트에 전용하는 것을 금지하는 판결을 내리면서 연립정부에 600억 유로의 자금 공백이 생겼습니다.

연립정당은 선거에서 큰 손실을 입어 지지율이 급락하고 경제가 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

총선이 다가옴에 따라 숄츠 총리는 새로운 연립정부를 구성하거나 소수 정부를 이끌거나 1월 15일로 예정된 불신임 투표와 함께 조기 선거를 요청하는 등의 선택을 할 수 있습니다.

숄츠 총리는 예산 협상 중 크리스티안 린트너 재무장관을 해임하며 연정 종료를 알렸습니다.

린트너의 논란의 여지가 있는 행동과 기업들과의 별도 회동은 연정 탈퇴 의도에 대한 추측을 불러일으켰습니다.

상충되는 제안과 주요 연정 지도자를 배제한 후속 회담으로 권력 투쟁이 격화되면서 중요한 경제 문제에 대한 단결이 깨졌습니다.

다가오는 독일 총선에서 어느 한 정당도 50% 이상의 득표율을 확보하지 못할 것으로 예상되는 가운데 연정 협상이 장기화될 가능성이 높습니다.

기독민주당이 승리할 수도 있지만, 취약한 3당 연정을 피하기 위해서는 연정 파트너, 즉 사민당이 필요할 것입니다.

연립 정부는 2025년까지의 재정 공백, 예산 교착 상태, 경제 성장과 기후 목표를 위한 차입을 둘러싼 내부 갈등이라는 세 가지 주요 문제에 직면해 있습니다.

숄츠 총리가 이끄는 독일 연립 정부는 심각한 이념적 분열과 우크라이나 전쟁, 에너지 위기 등 여러 위기에 직면했습니다.

인기 없는 난방법과 엄격한 '부채 브레이크' 규정으로 인해 사민당, 녹색당, 기민당 사이에 긴장이 조성되었습니다.

정부 차입에 대한 공통된 접근 방식을 찾기 위한 투쟁이 격화되면서 연정 내 갈등이 심화되었습니다.