Trump winning the US elections wasn’t the only news this week. Germany tried to do 1 better: Collapse the ruling coalition. After three years in power, Olaf Scholz has fired his Finance minister, the leader of one of the 3 parties in his coalition. The so-called “Traffic Light” coalition—uniting the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in red, the FDP in yellow, and the Greens—was marked by conflicts from the start, with ideological divides over budget policies and economic strategy. The coalition’s approval ratings had sunk to new lows too, making this breakdown feel almost inevitable. Now, this crisis could lead the German president to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. But before diving into these options, let’s look at the background and unravel what led to this turning point. The three-party coalition was formed in 2021 after Olaf Scholz’s SPD narrowly won with just 25.7%

of the vote. Ideologically, the parties were worlds apart: the SPD and Greens leaned left, focusing on welfare and environmental reforms, while the FDP championed a market-driven economy with minimal government intervention. Despite these divisions, they forged ahead with Scholz as Chancellor, Habeck as Vice Chancellor, and Lindner as Finance Minister. From the outset, the coalition faced crisis after crisis: the war in Ukraine, an energy crunch, and the highly unpopular Heating Law, which citizens widely despised for its impact on household expenses and which fueled fierce tensions within the coalition. Then came the biggest sticking point: Germany’s strict “debt brake” rule, which limits government borrowing. While the SPD and Greens argued for more borrowing to tackle the climate crisis and economic stagnation, the FDP pushed back hard. Tensions reached a peak in November 2023,

when Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled that leftover pandemic funds couldn’t be diverted to climate projects. The court’s decision closed off €60 billion the coalition had counted on, leaving a massive funding gap and intensifying the coalition’s struggle to find a way forward. The coalition parties also faced disaster in recent elections: the EU vote and local elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Saxony saw the FDP shut out of all 3 state parliaments, while the Greens barely made it into one. By October and November, the coalition found itself grappling with three deeply interconnected crises. First, plummeting approval ratings. With national elections less than a year away, public support for the coalition had cratered, putting its future in jeopardy. Second, a slumping economy. Germany is heading into its second year of recession, with corporate icons like Volkswagen preparing to close three factories

and lay off tens of thousands of workers. And third, a budget deadlock for 2025. With a €10 billion funding gap and Germany’s strict “debt brake” rule in place, the coalition struggled to shape a budget that was both realistic and constitutional. Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the FDP pushed against any new borrowing, while the Greens argued that borrowing was essential to drive economic growth and tackle climate goals. With these three issues simmering, the coalition’s last weeks played out like a political thriller. On October 23, Robert Habeck of the Greens released a strategic paper calling the debt brake a “growth brake” and proposing a massive “Deutschlandfonds” for economic and infrastructure investment—without consulting coalition partners. Predictably, this move angered Finance Minister Christian Lindner, whose FDP staunchly opposes debt. A week later, Chancellor Scholz held a summit with large industry leaders,

while Lindner met separately with medium-sized businesses. The split meetings drew massive criticism, as many rightfully questioned why coalition leaders weren’t uniting on crucial economic issues. Scholz only added fuel to the fire by announcing follow-up talks—again excluding both Habeck and Lindner. Then, on November 1, Lindner responded with his own paper, calling for an “economic turnaround” with proposals to cut corporate taxes, reduce bureaucracy, and trim climate funding—essentially a counter-manifesto to Habeck’s approach, echoing opposition rhetoric. On November 3 and 4, Scholz attempted to broker a compromise, bringing his coalition partners together to hash out the 2025 budget. In a last-ditch offer, Habeck suggested redirecting €10 billion, initially earmarked for an Intel factory in eastern Germany,

to Lindner to help balance the budget. However, negotiations broke down, and on the evening of November 6, Chancellor Scholz made a bold move: he fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, signaling the end of the coalition. Those are some very strong words. Scholz ain't happy. Lindner's actions have sparked plenty of speculation. Some believe he planned to leave the coalition all along and intentionally proposed an economic strategy he knew the SPD and Greens would reject. After all, Lindner's FDP is currently polling below the 5% threshold needed to remain in the Bundestag, and leaving the coalition could be his best shot at winning back voters. Publicly, however, Lindner paints a different picture. His response to Scholz's accusations was equally harsh: These two definitely don't have a lot of love for each other! And what really went down in their

one-on-one meeting? Well, we may never know. Germany is now governed by the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, with Scholz still serving as Chancellor—though now without a majority in parliament. So, what’s next? There are three options: Option 1: Scholz could try to form a new coalition, possibly with the CDU. However, this is unlikely, as the CDU leader has already ruled out joining the government. Option 2: Scholz could lead a minority government until the elections in September next year. However, without majority support to pass his budget, this option is impossible. That means the only realistic option is early elections. Early elections can be triggered by a no-confidence vote, which Scholz has already scheduled for January 15. He expects to lose, with only the SPD and Greens backing him. This loss would allow Scholz to request that President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolve parliament.

If Steinmeier agrees, he has up to 21 days to decide, after which new elections would need to be scheduled within 60 days. The German Press Agency currently suggests March 30 as the most likely election date. However, pressure is mounting for quicker action, with opposition leader Friedrich Merz calling for a confidence vote as early as next week. Additionally, trade and business associations are urging early elections to restore stability to the government. But in the end, only Chancellor Scholz has the authority to call a confidence vote. To be honest, this couldn’t come at a worse time for Europe. Donald Trump, a known sceptic of NATO, Ukraine, and the EU, has just been re-elected as U.S. President. Now, with Germany—the EU’s strongest economy—paralyzed by political turmoil, Europe is left without a stable leader on the international stage. Even if new elections are called, they could

result in months of coalition negotiations, as no single party is likely to secure over 50% of the vote. The Christian Democrats are the most likely to win, but they would need a coalition partner, potentially the SPD. If their combined votes fall short, however, Germany may be looking at another fragile three-party coalition, risking similar gridlock in the future. In any case, a swift resolution is essential for Germany to regain its footing and provide the leadership Europe urgently needs on critical foreign policy issues. And if you’re curious about why exactly, don’t miss our in-depth video on why a Trump presidency poses such serious risks for Europe. We’ve outlined six key challenges that Europe must be prepared to counter. Thank you for watching, please subscribe and like the content. Also a massive shout out to our contributor, Stephen who helped with the video. And of course, thank you to our Patreon community.

especially our presidents: Hjvd, BJ, Pieter, Christin, Jan, and Sjoukje. And if anyone else wants to support us, please sign up to Patreon, link below.

German Government COLLAPSES! New Elections! What Now?

German Government COLLAPSES! New Elections! What Now?