애플의 AI 전략과 미국 경제 성장

미국 내 조지아의 경제적 중요성과 우유 가격 협상은 한국 경제에 영향을 미칩니다.

### 글로벌 경제 전망: 미국의 성장 주도, 한국의 반도체 주도 회복 및 국내 과제
* 🌍 세계은행은 세계 경제 성장률 전망치를 **2.6%**로 수정했으며, 미국이 **0.2% 증가분의 약 80%**를 차지했습니다. 미국의 AI 투자는 글로벌 성장의 핵심 동력으로 간주됩니다.
* 🇺🇸 올해 미국 성장률 전망치는 **0.3%에서 2.5%로 상향 조정**되었습니다. 트럼프 전 대통령이 재선에 성공하면 **규제나 IRA 자금이 줄어들** 수 있습니다.
* 🇰🇷 한국 경제는 **반도체를 중심으로 한 높은 수출 성장**으로 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나 **여행 비용으로 인한 소비 지출 감소** 등 국내 문제는 여전히 남아 있습니다.
* 🥛 낙농가들은 사료비 상승으로 **원유 가격을 인상**해야 한다고 주장하며 한국 낙농위원회가 **원유 가격 협상**을 시작했습니다. 하지만 **유제품 소비는 이미 감소**하고 있고, FTA로 인해 **외국산 유제품에 대한 관세가 점차 철폐**될 예정입니다.

Let's start by looking at the news first. Reporter Lee Joo-ho, welcome. Hello, I'm reporter Lee Joo-ho. Nice to meet you. Did you get a perm? No, no, I naturally have curly hair. Oh, you naturally have curly hair. Oh, you didn't get a perm. I envy everything about you. People say I look ugly when I don't get a perm. Is that so? You like it. Indeed, there are quite a few people who are jealous. Reporter Lee Joo-ho, when did you start feeling that you were handsome compared to others? Honestly, when did you start feeling that way? Well, for me, what's normal? If you're going to talk about this kind of thing, there's no need. Oh, I see. No, I mean, I'm really... it becomes quite boring. I'm a journalist, and now as a content creator, instead of...

I do have a desire to be recognized for my content. The most boring but yes, shall we take a look at the U.S. market closing today? Initially, it showed a bit of a mixed trend, Nasdaq was good, but Dow went down a bit. However, if we look at the U.S. market from last night, it seems that the U.S. market moved just because of Apple. Apple rose about 7%. So, isn't it a bit strange that Apple rose by 7%? The reason Apple went up is actually because in the U.S., the evaluation of WWDC by Wall Street has changed a bit. It didn't drop much that day, it dropped by about 2%, but then the Wall Street analysts said something. Morgan Stanley mentioned that this is the most differentiated consumer digital agent, and then about Apple's artificial intelligence, and about the device replacement cycle.

It is expected to accelerate, and there is no reason to show that the cycle replacement cycle will accelerate. Bank of America will continue the upgrade cycle of this intelligent phone that can use AI. However, confidence in Apple's AI strategy has increased. Artificial intelligence can contribute to starting the super cycle of the iPhone. How about that? Actually, after seeing the services that have been released, and if you hear this kind of evaluation, how do you feel? Well, I received a feeling that there is not much special after seeing this service. Yes, and I wonder if this is a big service worthy of being called artificial intelligence. Moreover, it seems like they are just attaching the open AI to it. So, it seems like Apple is not developing anything new and just changing it hardware-wise, which seems insufficient.

The feeling of being similar was a bit strong, but a more interesting fact is that Morgan Stanley mentioned accelerating the replacement cycle on devices. Another analyst from Morgan Stanley, who works separately in the analysis team, mentioned that after seeing Apple's WWDC, they felt like, Ah, Google will dominate the mobile ecosystem in terms of artificial intelligence. This is because Google has numerous applications that can be accessed through Google. These applications with Google's artificial intelligence, entering Google's market, are much more liberated. So, the analysis was that Google, which holds much in terms of artificial intelligence, will advance in the artificial intelligence ecosystem.

Another analysis team within Morgan Stanley says that Apple will accelerate the device replacement cycle with this AI. So, it's not wrong, front and back. Anyway, according to the evaluation, Apple's stock price increased by about 7%. In the end, whether this will lead to actual sales of iPhone 16 will probably depend on future orders in the supply chain. It is related to how the stock price will move now. In practice, users still, I mean, have seen it through the media, but when it actually comes out, things may change a bit. So, we need to take a look at that. However, since it's a software change, even people who used the previous devices will see changes when updating, or it's just the iPhone 15 Max Pro model.

Then, on that iPad, only models that have a specific semiconductor anomaly can be used. Are you using the 15% Max? No, it's not working. Yes. Yesterday, we saw materials from Daeju Electronics, silicon anode materials, which are currently showing a very hot trend in the market. Daeju Electronics. I will stop here. Alright. Before we delve into the news, please take a look at this. Now, even pork belly is becoming a bit expensive, like Korean beef. Yes, it's pork belly. The price of pork belly has now exceeded 20,000 won per serving. This is the average price. After conversion, there are prices before and after conversion. Normally, people don't pay 20,000 won for one serving of pork belly, so what they usually mean by one serving here is 200g. But.

So, in the store, we have to lower the prices on the menu board a bit. For example, we write 140g for 16,000 won. It's called Shrink Play. But if we convert this to the usual amount people can eat, which is 200g, when converted to 200g, it exceeds an average of 20,000 won. Right? For a person over 200g, there are usually a lot more than for someone who eats 150, and they often serve 180, so I think they actually serve 150, but it might be 130. Until recently, just having a glass of soju was not something you could easily say. So, for example, if three people save on pork belly and eat three portions, it would cost about 60,000 won. If three people, yes, if three people save and eat, they don't even get full. They don't even get full, but if three people eat three portions, it costs 60,000 won, and we...

I think we should have a glass of so-maek, so if you have one bottle of soju, it's about 6,000 won, and then if you have one bottle of beer, it's 7,000 won. So, when we have so-maek, it's like we're having beer for two people, right? It should be for two to three people. So, if we have beer for 14,000 won, it will be 8,000 won in total. So, oh, this has become too expensive. In the past, when we used to take kids out to eat beef, on the way, we would see those ox trucks and buy some corn first to feed the kids. It brings back some slightly sad memories of when we used to take the kids. They really liked corn. Yes, they liked it, so we bought it for them. Yes, we bought it because they liked it. Now, it's not just about school trips. So, let's move on to the first news. The first news is that the World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast to 2.6%.

In January, the forecast was 2.4%, and then it was increased by 0.2% over time. Forecasts continue to show that the global economy is improving. However, now the key point among them is who raised that 0.2% point. Even the World Bank mentioned that out of the total 0.2% increase, the United States accounts for about 80%. They said the global economic outlook has been raised, and most of the increase is due to the United States. As much as the United States, a lot of investments are being made in artificial intelligence, which is driving the global economic growth now. Therefore, in other regions, it is somewhat difficult for us to expect much. Anyway, looking at it regionally, the growth forecast for the United States this year is 0.3% higher than in January.

Thanks to this, the United States is expected to maintain a growth rate of 2.5% this year, the same as last year. The World Bank has raised the U.S. growth forecast for this year by nearly 0.9 percentage points from the forecast in January. It seems to demonstrate how significant the role the United States is playing in the current global economy. As for the Eurozone, it is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, so there might not be high expectations for the Eurozone this year. Germany is also in a continuing unfavorable state. South Korea is expected to perform a bit better. Korea Development Institute (KDI) forecasts will be presented later as Korea was not included in this report by the World Bank. China's economy is also expected to improve, with a projected growth rate of around 4.8% this year, slightly higher than the January forecast of 4.5%.

If it exists, yes, yes. But because it grew by 5.1% last year, it is forecasted to slow down compared to last year. Anyway, this country called China, last time I mentioned that the U.S. exports will surpass China this year. That's true, however, China's exports have a significant impact on our economy to the point where it competes for 1st or 2nd place with Korea. Therefore, it is good for China to recover. So, despite talks of supply chain separation, the forecast for growth in January was 4.5%, but now in June, the forecast for May is 4.8%, higher than before. It's still good news for the domestic economy. I will show you the KDI forecast for Korea because it includes detailed information about the outlook for Korea.

Because it is not there, ultimately, I forecasted that our economy will improve with a high export growth centered on semiconductors. In May, exports showed a recovery trend with a 17.7% increase, mainly led by semiconductors. Also, looking at April's industrial production, it increased by 6.1% compared to the same month last year, with a significant 1% increase from the previous month. This increase in industrial production is mostly due to semiconductors, which showed a high growth rate of 22.3%. However, even though we see this, ultimately, what is leading the world now is artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which is the case for the United States and Korea as well. However, the problem in Korea now is consumer spending. I have been talking about this since the beginning of the year. Despite various indicators, many people are traveling, so they are not spending on goods.

She doesn't spend on goods, doesn't buy things, and spends money on travel. Even though she spends money on travel, recent indicators show that the travel service balance recorded a surplus or deficit. Deficit, meaning, a lot of people are traveling out of Korea, but fewer are coming in. So, a tremendous amount of money is spent on travel, but people are not spending much on goods. Consequently, in April, retail sales decreased by 2.6% compared to the same period last year. Probably due to the current high-interest rate environment and high prices, this kind of phenomenon is inevitable. However, regarding prices, the KDI evaluation indicates that the underlying inflation is approaching the target stability of 2%. Yet, there is still some concern. Due to the current Middle East situation, freight rates are increasing. So, the freight container index has risen recently.

While laughing at 3,100 won, we are renewing the record for the consecutive year. This ultimately means that the products we consume are imported from overseas, and as the freight charges increase there, can the product prices easily drop? There is some doubt about that. So, although the prices are stabilizing a bit, there is a question about whether we can significantly increase domestic consumption. From the perspective of purchasing, people cannot show off on Instagram as easily as before, even without comparing to the past. When buying things, people can't brag about it, so for travel or food, you can just keep taking photos and posting them. When you travel, you can take photos at each place and post them, or you can go once and come back, and then go again.

You can also post it divided over a month. You shouldn't buy things, it makes you look like you don't have them. Yes, Instagram has caused trouble again. When I see too much of it, I start feeling a sense of relative deprivation, so I try not to look at it much. Oh, on Instagram, I feel a sense of relative deprivation. Everyone seems to be living so well. They are all beautiful, handsome, and live well. Oh, am I the only one struggling? I get these thoughts. But in reality, it's not like that. Over there, yes, that's right. Why don't you go on a trip in the summer? Oh, a trip? Yes, please go on a trip this summer. Oh, I am planning a trip to the United States. Oh, I hadn't thought about it, but my husband strongly insists that we must eat Mister Beast chocolate, the number one YouTuber in the world. So, we bought it and tried it just now.

I'm going to go and buy it. Oh, yes, it's only sold in the U.S. That's because it's not officially imported in Korea now. So, in Korea, you know, because individual resellers import it, it's too expensive to buy. If you buy it through direct purchase, it's like 70,000 to 80,000 won. For example, if you buy it directly, like chocolates, how can you buy it? It's better to spend that money on a trip. It seems a bit extravagant, but if you post it on Instagram like that, it should be fine. Oh, my son wants to eat chocolate. So, if you travel to the U.S. like this, you can instantly reverse the sense of deprivation that you haven't been able to do so far. When other people see it, they will envy you a lot. Now, let's try it. When you eat udon in Japan, it was a trend in the old days. When you eat pizza, it's like being in Italy. Then, shall we look at the second news? The second news is actually something I prepared. I mentioned it last night as well, but it's about the U.S. state of Georgia.

The governor is visiting Korea, but before that, let me first share breaking news. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is considering further regulating additional Chinese semiconductor technologies. It is said that Gate-All-Around (GAA), Gate-All-Around and HBM could also be included in the target. The U.S. is reviewing additional regulations on Chinese semiconductors, not for export to China, right? So, will they restrict the export of semiconductors to China? GAA, which has been developed all around, will no longer be provided. That's right. However, there are no specific details yet, so the final step of the introduction of regulations has not been confirmed. Since the regulations themselves have not been finally determined, it has not been revealed where and how the regulations will be implemented.

Shoulder officials are showing a rather critical view. However, when it comes to GAA, Samsung Foundry has switched from FinFET to GAA for advanced semiconductors of 3 nanometers or more. So, we said we would do GAA. Still, in the case of TSMC, they are still doing FinFET up to about 3 nanometers. If Samsung Electronics switches to GAA, although there is an issue of not having large-scale customers yet, it could still be beneficial for us. There might be concerns about HBM specifically, but the details are not clear yet. HBM is about where to start and how to proceed. Therefore, there is a possibility that this could create some anxiety, so it's a bit premature. Not everything has been covered by the reporters yet, but I will give you the news for now. Now, let me tell you about the visit of the Governor of Georgia in detail. Brian Kemp, the Governor of Georgia in the United States, visited Korea this time.

It seems that Georgia is a state where many Korean companies are investing a lot. Yesterday, Reporter Ryu Hoon brought some great photos, so I will show them to you. In the morning, we need to show these things. Now, if you look here, this is Georgia. In Georgia, there is a blue battery-shaped building, which is a battery production factory. And the green star is an electric car manufacturing factory. The yellow star is a factory that produces electric car batteries together. There are many of these, and Georgia has a lot of them. SK Innovation and Hyundai are producing batteries together in Georgia. Then, Kia is manufacturing cars, the Rivian car factory, and Hyundai's car factory. There are many factories like this. When you actually see it, the number of Korean companies that have entered Georgia from Korea is said to be around 14 billion won. When large companies enter,

First-tier suppliers, second-tier suppliers, parts suppliers, and so on, lead to approximately 140 companies being connected. One interesting point here is that SK Group, besides the joint factory with Hyundai, currently operates two of its own factories in Georgia. In Jackson County, where the SK1 factory is located, jobs were created and the factory contributed to the local community, receiving recognition for its merits and even changing the factory site's name to SK Drive. SK Blood Bard. By the way, do you remember that? If I show you a photo of it, when you go to Iran, there is a Tehran Street in Seoul, right? You know, there is Tehran Street in Seoul. Of course, the relationship between Korea and Iran is not good now, but in 1977, to commemorate the establishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and South Korea, they named a street after each other.

Because of the exchange, Tehran in Seoul became Seoul in Iran, right? Just like that, when a company contributes to the local community, they start to use the company's name or the place name. Such situations may arise, right? You can consider SK Blood Bard as an example. The reason I brought this up is, as I mentioned several times, if former President Trump returns to office, there could be a reduction in regulations or even a possibility of reducing IRA funding. In such cases, we need something we can leverage. Georgia is a region where many Korean companies are heavily invested, and Georgia is a representative battleground state. It has 16 electoral votes.

When you look at it in terms of the number of electoral votes, the United States ranks 7th. That's right. In areas with this number of electoral votes, for example, Pennsylvania with 19 votes, North Carolina with 16 votes, it is a highly competitive state. Even among these competitive states, there are areas where there is a very sharp difference of opinion between the Democratic and Republican parties. In fact, not long ago, when there was a decision on President Trump's impeachment, 96% of the Democratic supporters agreed with the decision, and 86% disagreed. So, in such areas where opinions are divided evenly, if we create jobs well and generate a significant economic impact here, eventually, when we face any diplomatic or trade issues, we might be able to leverage this region. Looking at the map of Georgia, it seems like a good place for a factory.

In the past, rather than places like Detroit, it seems like there are many factories spread out in that area. In fact, it's an area like the second Detroit. Yes, after the decline of the Detroit Rust Belt, a new Rust Belt is being established as an electric car production factory, and that area is right in Georgia. A new electric car belt is being created in Georgia. Georgia was famous for something in the past. Let me give you a quiz. I know the answer, but do you know? What was Georgia famous for? For example, in the past, apples were famous. Yes, Daejeon was famous for tofu dishes, right? Indeed, what was Georgia famous for? I will give you this as a quiz. When will you tell us the answer? The answer will be revealed in the third round.

I will tell you about the news at the end. Shall we take a look at the third news? So, the third news is that the oil price negotiations have begun. Here, when we talk about oil, it refers to milk. Yes, milk. Our country is really expensive in terms of milk. It's a really expensive country. But this is quite ambiguous. In fact, from the perspective of dairy farmers, the milk consumption is already decreasing significantly. So, if our milk consumption is decreasing, and the feed cost for cows is increasing, then the price should go down. This is the argument of the dairy industry. However, in the dairy industry, milk producers are also experiencing a decrease in consumption. They argue that if prices go up, our product prices will increase, leading to even further decreased consumption. And nowadays, there is another variable that has emerged. What is it? Nowadays, the import volume of sterilized milk is exceptionally high.

It's rising, Poland is importing a lot of milk from there. Yes, because of that, local Jeju businesses are now importing sterilized milk to allow more people to drink milk at a lower price. This situation is causing a lot of conflicts in the industry. To start with the facts, as of yesterday, the Korea Dairy Committee initiated negotiations on raw milk prices. The negotiations will take place twice a week for a month. Once the negotiations on raw milk prices are finalized, the basic raw milk price will be implemented starting from August 1st. Then, companies will have to consider raising product prices. As for the progress so far, the increase in raw milk prices is around 26 won from last year.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has set restrictions to increase prices. Originally, the dairy industry has been following the basic milk price determined by the Livestock Promotion Association. Consequently, the income of dairy farmers increased by 4.6% per liter compared to last year, reaching 84 won. If it goes up a bit more in negotiations, it could possibly increase to 110 won per liter. Currently, dairy farmers are arguing that due to the increase in feed prices, they must raise prices. However, from the manufacturers' perspective, prices have been rising for over three years. They are questioning if we have to keep buying at these increased prices. They speculate that due to the government's pressure to control inflation, they have actually not been able to raise milk prices further.

So, the negotiation of the price of raw milk, which is the raw material for the milk we drink, has started. From the perspective of consumers in our country, there is a somewhat unfair aspect. Of course, from the perspective of producers, since they have been mostly small-scale producers and have not been able to achieve economies of scale, it is natural that prices have to go up. However, we are almost eating the most expensive milk in the world. It would be great if our country could be more mechanized and produce on a larger scale. Instead of that, there should be a system that preserves the milk prices of all farming households. Who is this system for? In fact, these things have emerged for the sake of the dairy industry, but another thing that has emerged is.

So, what it is, is that dairy manufacturers have a purchasing quota, you know, they have to buy a certain amount. Then dairy manufacturers say, Well, prices are going up, but the amount we have to buy is increasing, and consumption is decreasing. This has become a real problem. Another issue that has become a problem these days is that due to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), currently there is a tariff of over 10% on American or European dairy products such as milk and cheese. However, by 2026, this will gradually be eliminated and reduced to 0%. So, their products will become cheaper, while our products, with the price of raw milk increasing, leading to an increase in product prices, a decrease in consumption, and ultimately a decrease in competitiveness. This is what they are talking about. However, if prices are not increased, dairy farmers will say, If we can't cover the cost of feed, how are we supposed to make a living?

It's what you're doing, so it's difficult, right? It's difficult, right? It's difficult. Yes, it's difficult. But it would be nice to be able to handle those difficult things as a mediator in conflicts like information, right? Well, it's not an easy answer, right? Oh, earlier I gave a quiz about Georgia's specialties, such as soy sauce marinated crab, grilled eel, hongeo (fermented skate), grilled hairtail, flying fish roe, sticky rice cake, twisted doughnuts, and so on. Now, Georgia is where the headquarters of Coca-Cola is located. Yes, Georgia coffee, so this is something that has come out now. You all still seem to have a lot to study in terms of economics. What do you mean by grilled hairtail? What do you mean by flying fish roe? So, let's scold our viewers like this and shall we wrap up the news time? How about that? Oh, I didn't know. Georgia coffee, that Georgia.

Is it correct? Georgia Coffee. Oh, Georgia, the state. The Coca-Cola company, of course. Initially, it was made in Japan. Yes, Japan. Coca-Cola in Japan made Georgia Coffee, and the name was decided by Coca-Cola headquarters in Georgia, where they saw it and made it. Oh, I see. Thank you. Alright then, shall we wrap up here for today, Reporter Lee Ji-ho? Will you come back on Friday? Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow. Oh, I see. We'll see each other often. Yes, should we stop here? Please provide in-depth care. Understood. See you tomorrow. Thank you. Park Geun-young, Lee Sun-hyuk, Sa Kyung-in, and Yeom Seung-hwan. Create healthy investment habits with the meticulous care of the investment masters. Check on the 3% membership app.

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미국 시장에서의 애플의 부상과 AI의 영향력

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그는 애플의 AI 서비스의 중요성에 대해 회의적인 시각을 드러내며 구글이 AI 생태계를 지배할 수 있다고 전망합니다.

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애플의 AI 영향과 삼겹살 가격 상승

AI로 인해 기기 교체 주기가 빨라질 것이라는 예측에 따라 Apple의 주가가 7% 상승하여 iPhone 16의 판매에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.

소프트웨어 변경은 이전 기기 사용자에게 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되며, 아이패드는 특정 반도체를 탑재한 모델에 한정되어 있습니다.

한편, 삼겹살의 평균 가격이 1인분당 2만원을 넘어서면서 메뉴 조정과 외식비 상승에 대한 우려가 이어지고 있습니다.

글로벌 경제 예측이 각 지역에 미치는 영향

세계 경제의 성장률 전망치는 꾸준히 상승하고 있으며, 이러한 상승세를 주도하는 국가는 미국입니다.

5%의 성장률을 유지하며 세계 경제 전망에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

유로존과 독일 등 다른 지역은 성장률 전망치가 낮아진 반면, 한국과 중국은 특히 반도체 산업을 중심으로 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.

여행 지출이 소비자 행동에 미치는 영향

여행 지출이 높아 한국의 여행 서비스 수지가 적자를 기록하고 있는 반면, 소매 판매를 포함한 재화 지출은 감소하고 있습니다.

인스타그램에 올릴 만한 경험에 대한 욕구로 인한 여행 경비 증가는 잠재적으로 국내 소비에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

또한 국내에서 특정 제품을 구할 수 없는 상황도 재화 대신 여행에 대한 지출을 선호하게 만드는 요인으로 작용하고 있습니다.

미국, 중국 반도체 기술에 대한 추가 규제 고려 중

미국이 중국 반도체 기술에 대한 추가 규제를 검토하고 있으며, 여기에는 GAA와 HBM이 포함됩니다.

대중 반도체 수출을 제한할 가능성이 검토되고 있으나 구체적인 내용과 시행 계획은 확정되지 않았습니다.

이번 조지아 주지사의 방한은 배터리, 자동차 제조 공장 등 한국 기업의 조지아 내 투자가 총 140억 달러에 달하는 등 상당한 성과를 거두고 있다는 점에서 의미가 있습니다.

조지아에 대한 한국 기업 투자의 잠재적 영향력

한국 기업들은 16개의 선거구가 있는 주요 격전지인 조지아주에 많은 투자를 하고 있습니다.

조지아주는 정치적 의견이 고르게 분열되어 있어 향후 외교 또는 무역 문제에서 잠재적인 지렛대로서 일자리 창출과 경제적 영향력을 발휘할 수 있는 최적의 장소입니다.

또한 조지아는 전기자동차 생산의 새로운 러스트벨트로 부상하고 있어 공장 설립에 매력적인 지역입니다.

우유 가격 협상과 한국 낙농 산업에 미치는 영향

폴란드의 한국 우유 수입으로 인해 국내 업체들이 멸균 우유를 수입하면서 업계 갈등이 빚어지고 있습니다.

한국 낙농위원회는 낙농가의 소득을 4.

6% 인상할 수 있는 원유 가격 협상을 시작했습니다.

낙농가들은 사료 가격 상승으로 인한 가격 인상을 주장하고, 제조업체들은 지속적인 가격 인상에 의문을 제기하면서 업계는 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

유제품 제조업체가 직면한 과제

유제품 제조업체들은 구매 쿼터 증가, 생산 비용 상승, 소비 감소로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

또한 자유무역협정으로 인해 미국과 유럽산 유제품에 대한 관세가 점진적으로 철폐되면서 국내 제품의 경쟁력에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

가격을 인상하지 않으면 낙농가들은 사료비 상승으로 인해 재정적 어려움에 직면하게 되어 상황이 더욱 복잡해집니다.