전 세계적인 출생률 감소: 원인과 결과

### 출산율 감소: 원인, 결과 및 문화적 변화
* 🌍 전 세계는 특히 부유한 국가를 중심으로 **심각한 출산율 감소**에 직면해 있으며, 이는 경제와 사회에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 📉 미국의 출산율은 작년에 **여성 1인당 1.62명**으로 사상 최저치를 기록했는데, 이는 안정적인 인구 유지에 필요한 **2.1명에 훨씬 못 미치는 수치**로 일본과 이탈리아 같은 국가의 추세를 반영한 것입니다.
* 👩 여성의 교육 및 경력 기회 증가로 인해 **출산을 미루거나 포기하는 등 여러 요인**이 출산율 감소에 영향을 미칩니다.
* 💰 미국에서는 **30만~40만 달러로 추정되는 자녀 양육에 드는 경제적 부담**이 상당하기 때문에 많은 사람들이 출산을 망설이고 있습니다.
* 📱 데이트 앱을 통해 쉽게 사람을 만날 수 있음에도 불구하고, 많은 사람들이 **장기적인 파트너를 찾는 데 어려움**을 겪고 있으며, 이는 **출산율 저하에 영향**을 미치고 있습니다.
* 🧑 2003년에는 **83%가 부모가 되고 싶다고 응답**했지만 2024년에는 **51%로 감소**하는 등 문화적 변화가 뚜렷하게 나타나고 있으며, 자녀를 갖고자 하는 욕구가 눈에 띄게 감소하고 있습니다.
* 📊 출산율 감소의 경제적 영향에는 **노동력 부족, 세금 증가, 의료비 상승** 등이 포함되며, 이는 이 문제를 해결해야 하는 시급성을 강조합니다.
* 😊 흥미롭게도 많은 사람들이 직업과 우정에서 성취감을 찾는 등 **자녀를 갖는 것이 행복에 필수적인 것은 아니라는 연구 결과**가 나와 가족과 개인의 만족에 대한 사회적 가치관이 변화하고 있음을 시사합니다.

오늘날 경제적 부담과 사회적 가치관의 변화로 인해 태어나는 아이의 수가 점점 줄어들고 있습니다.

So, the world has a problem. We're not having enough kids, especially in the richest of countries. And this is something that could have huge effects for our economy, our society, and our future. And that's probably because even while they're still in the womb, kids are really expensive. That's weird. Okay, so bad magic tricks aside, here's the really crazy part: no one seems to agree on what's really causing this decline or even what we should be doing about it. Last year, the US fertility rate hit an all-time low of 1.62 births per woman. That's the lowest birth rate since the government started tracking this statistic in the 1930s. But back in the 50s, the fertility rate was about 3.7 births per woman, and you need at least 2.1 births just to keep the population steady. And it's not just the US dealing with this problem; it's the entire world. Countries like Japan, Italy, Germany, we're all seeing similar drops. Japan, for example, recorded its lowest number of

births ever, and Italy has actually declared a national state of emergency because their birth rate is so low. But it gets even worse when you zoom out and you look at the global picture. According to the Pew Research Center, population growth is projected to flatline by the year 2100, and in some countries, it's already happening. South Korea's fertility rate, for example, dropped to 0.72 in 2022, the lowest in the world. To put that in perspective, that's less than half of what's needed to maintain a stable population. So, if this trend keeps on going, South Korea could see its population cut in half in just a couple generations. So, the other question is, what's causing people to have less kids? And this is where things get a little tricky. Some argue that it's because women have more freedom, and more women are pursuing higher education and careers, and as a result, they're waiting longer to have kids or they're choosing not to have them at all. And some people say it's the rise of dinks, or dual income no

kids households. Some people argue it's the decline of religion or the decline of fertility rates thanks to the chemicals and pesticides that's in our food. But regardless of what the real reason is, the outcome's pretty bad. And as someone who wants to be a parent someday, I just want to know what's causing this to happen. And I also want to know how expensive is it to really become a parent and how much is it going to cost our future if we stop becoming parents. There's some really interesting data behind all of this that I want to share with you, so let's get into it. Hi, my name is Andre J. Hope you're doing well. Come for the finance and stay for the magic of babies. One of the questions I had is why is no one having kids today as compared to just 20 years ago. And the truth is there's a lot of different reasons. One US study asked people between the ages of 18 to 49 why they didn't want to have kids, and 56% said

they just didn't want to. The other half said it was for a variety of different reasons, like medical, financial, having no partner, age, climate change, or their partner just didn't want to have kids. And generally, the state of the world and one really surprising reason that kept showing up throughout all the different studies that I looked at across all the different countries was that trouble finding a partner was at 15% of the people surveyed, which is really weird considering the average person spends almost an hour a day on their dating apps. It's now a lot easier than ever before to meet people thanks to apps like Tinder, POF, Bumble, e-harmony, and apps like that. But people also say, despite how easy it is to get a date, it's becoming a lot harder to find a partner for the long term to have kids with. And one of the reasons why is because of the very same technology that was supposed to help us. In fact, Pew Research found that 75% of the people they polled said it was either very or

somewhat difficult to find someone in the past year, either because they had trouble approaching them or that person didn't meet their expectations, all of which led to a burnout for a variety of different reasons that I'm sure most of us experienced at some point, like being ghosted and lied to, rejected, feeling like you're having a repetitive conversation all the time. But what's interesting to me about all these studies is that these apps, which ultimately are just tools that were meant to bring us closer together, are also the tools that keep us far apart. And I think so much of that is because social media isn't real, it's surface-level marketing, and it's hard to find authentic connections when it just seems like someone better is just a swipe away, leading to pretty grim statistics like one in five people lying about their age, one in seven lying about their income, one in eight lying about their job, all of which has led to a decline in mental health, leaving people feeling three times more stressed than people who

don't use these dating apps at all. You can go on three dates with someone and have an amazing time, and then never hear from them again. A lot of the times, apps lead us to undervalue people that we'd actually like in real life and overvalue people we wouldn't give a second thought to. Like, I know people that have met the love of their life on these apps, but also, like, the overwhelming sentiment toward these apps is they don't work. So, that's one major reason why people are having as many kids, but there's another big reason: money. I wanted to know how much does it cost to become a parent, and I found that raising a child in the US is expensive, really expensive. It costs about $300,000 to raise a child to age 17, and that doesn't include education. If you factor in college, that number jumps to over $400,000. Now, if you don't want to spend $400,000 raising a child, I don't blame you. And if instead you want to spend a

lot less money on growing your career, especially in the YouTube space, then I've got something that can really help you out with today's sponsor, Tube Magic. And with Tube Magic, you get AI-powered keyword research that lets you sort by search volume, competition, and something called a Magic score, which automatically finds the best keywords for your video ideas. It even generates AI video ideas for you based on any channel link you give it. Plus, it can write scripts and script out outlines, so you don't have to start from scratch. And here's where it gets really cool: if you upload an unlisted video, Tube Magic will instantly optimize your title, description, and tags for you, helping you get more views and engagement. A lot of huge YouTubers are using this tool, and right now, you can try it out for free. Just click the link in the description and start using Tube Magic today. It's going to save you a lot of time, and big thanks to Tube Magic for sponsoring this video. Let's get back to how much it costs to raise a child, which

was $400,000. Now, just for context, $400,000 invested over the course of 17 years, which is about the same as investing $2,000 a month, means that instead of having a kid, you could end up with $810,000. Another study found that parents raising just two children until they're the age of 22 would cost them an average of $750,000, including the cost of everything, factoring education, in a bigger house for a bigger family. That's not even the crazy part. The crazy part is that those studies were done between the years 2014 and 2017, so factoring inflation since 2017 means that the new estimate would be a lot closer to $1 million. And in the US, 64% of young adults who are not having as many kids as they'd like to say that it's child care costs that are the major reason why. Child care costs are growing at almost twice the rate of inflation, and it's not just an American problem either. It's a global problem. In Britain

for example, couples spend over 20% of their salaries on childcare, and I think we can all agree that it's not getting any easier for Millennials or Gen Z, who are already struggling with student debt, high housing costs, stagnant wages, and record levels of credit card debt. And when I look at the overall big picture of how much the world has changed its mind about having kids in the last 20 years, it blew my mind. Back in 2003, 83% of people said they wanted to be a parent. Fast forward to 2024, and that number dropped to 51%. In Canada, the numbers tell a similar story. In 2001, only 7% of Canadians said they didn't want kids, but by 2022, that number jumped to 34%. So, these numbers show that there's a massive cultural shift in how younger generations are thinking about their future, and it makes a lot of sense in a world where job security is no longer guaranteed, where owning a home seems like a dream for so many people, and

where potentially the food we consume is impacting our fertility, and it's no wonder more and more people are questioning whether they want to bring a child into this world. So, the next question I had is, so what? It seems like a personal choice whether to have kids or not, and if some people can't afford to or they don't want to have kids, then we should all respect it. And I still think that, but I also wanted to know what happens if this trend continues. What happens if more and more people start to think this way, and it turns out there's some really interesting effects that start to happen to the global economy? And here's what happens first. As the birth rate declines, less young people will enter the workforce, and that makes it harder for companies to find employees. And this could lead to what's called a labor shortage. And Japan is a really good example of this. In Japan, nearly 30% of the population is now over the age of 65, with only about two working-age people

supporting each retiree. Now, to put that in perspective, a healthy balance would be around four workers for each retiree. But when there's only two workers for every retired person, the financial burden on the working population has to increase. It means more people having to contribute more to Social Security and pensions, which can lead to higher taxes and reduced benefits. And this could also lead to more labor shortages. And when there's not enough workers, companies are forced to automate their jobs, which is usually not a good thing for the workers. Or they have to hire older workers to fill the gaps. And when there's a shortage of workers, their incomes tend to go up because companies have to compete more to attract top talent. And higher incomes, which are usually a good thing, can actually lead to higher costs for businesses. And when businesses face higher costs, they usually pass those higher costs to the consumers in the form of higher prices. And since there's less consumers doing the consuming, you get even higher prices. So that pay raise cancels out. And we saw this happen to

the US when inflation was higher than our wage growth. And over time, this also contributes to inflation, making everything more expensive for everyone. And all of this affects investors too. If the population shrinks, companies see less revenue, which could hurt their stock prices. So, this brings me to the question: What can we do about this? And there's a lot of different solutions that have been proposed, but not all of them have been super successful. Taiwan, for example, spent over $3 billion trying to encourage higher birth rates, but it didn't really work. France spends around 4% of its GDP on family measures, including tax breaks and childcare benefits, but it also struggles with low fertility rates. Even in countries like Norway, Finland, and Germany, where the government spends tens of thousands of dollars per child on early childhood care, birth rates continue to decline. In the US, unfortunately, parental leave policies are a lot less generous. The United States offers only 12 weeks of unpaid leave, and even then, only 56% of workers are eligible for this leave. Studies also show that women see a drop

in earnings after having children, which is known as the motherhood penalty. This pay gap stays with them for the long term, while men experience a small short-term dip in their earnings. In Britain, mothers are three times more likely to work part-time than fathers, which also contributes to the pay gap. So, this lack of support makes it really hard for parents, especially mothers, to return to work after having a child, which can discourage them from having any children to begin with. And even if we gave women more generous parental leave policies, studies show it still wouldn't completely solve the problem. Japan, for example, has a very generous parental leave policy, allowing mothers to leave for one year of paid leave at two-thirds of their salary. But fertility rates in Japan are still some of the lowest in the world, and this suggests that it's not just about offering paid leave; it's also about changing cultural norms around who's responsible for raising children. So, if we want more people to have children, we need to create an environment where it's possible to do that without sacrificing

career or financial stability for both men and women. So, making this video did kind of make me sad to realize that we're living in a world where fewer people are choosing to have kids, and the economic consequence of that could be significant. From labor shortages to higher taxes to struggling pension systems and rising healthcare costs, the effects of declining birth rates will continue to affect the world. It's a very complicated problem, and there's no easy solution, and yeah, that makes me kind of sad. So, I don't want to leave this whole video feeling sad, so I found some good news. And the good news is studies show that having kids is not really a requirement for being happy. A survey in Britain found that a mother's happiness level will go up leading up to the years of giving birth, then they'll peak at birth, but then they'll go back to normal 1 to 2 years after giving birth. In the United States, they ran a similar survey, and they found 82% said that being a parent was really enjoyable, but 29% also said it was

extremely stressful most of the time. In fact, most people surveyed said when it comes to their happiness, only 26% said having kids was important to their happiness, while over twice that amount of people, 61%, said it was just having close friends. But most people said it was about having a fulfilling career and a life that contributed most to their overall happiness, and that doesn't really surprise me. When I first started investing in 2014, I started hearing about this term called dinks, which stands for dual income, no kids, or couples that are super focused on their careers, which has allowed them the freedom to save up a bunch of money, to invest it, and then travel to see the world and live stress-free. In fact, the Census Bureau found that dinks saved an average of 9% more compared to those with a dual income and with kids, and they were also found to have a higher median net worth. It makes a lot of sense to me why people are choosing to have less kids right now, especially because

now it's a lot more socially acceptable to do that than it was before. But if there's one thing I'd like to leave you with, though, it's this: remember that watching videos with statistics and surveys is just one snapshot in history. It's just one frame of reference at this moment in time, and that will change just as it was different 20 years ago. And you might find yourself sometime later in your life changing your priorities about what you want out of life, especially as you eventually gain that freedom, financial independence, and you want to share that with someone else, whether it's with another partner or with your kids. But as always, I'd love to hear your thoughts on what you think. Are you planning on having kids someday? Do you think you'll be doom-scrolling on these dating apps forever, or do you just want to focus on your career instead? Let me know down in the comments below. As always, I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day. Smash the like button, subscribe if you haven't.

already. Don't forget to grab your free stocks. Links are down below. Go track them automatically with a spreadsheet link down below in my Patreon. Thank you so much for watching this video. I'd love to see you back here next week. I'll see you soon. Bye-bye.

Why Our Generation Is Opting Out Of Kids

I will NEVER contact you for business or promotions (even if it comes from my legit email). I will not use IG, Telegram, or whatsapp to reach out - please ignore and report those accounts. 

I'm like Harry Potter - if he was a financial minimalist, did card tricks and worried about money. Biz inquiries: andrei@majikh.com


Andrei Jikh

전 세계적으로 특히 부유한 국가를 중심으로 출산율이 크게 감소하고 있으며, 미국은 여성 1인당 출산율이 사상 최저치인 1.

이러한 추세는 일본과 이탈리아 같은 국가에서도 나타나고 있으며, 2100년까지 인구 증가가 정체될 것이라는 국가적 비상사태와 전망으로 이어지고 있습니다.

여성의 자유 증가, 맞벌이 가구, 사회적 가치관의 변화 등 다양한 요인이 자녀를 적게 낳기로 결정하는 데 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

데이트 앱과 재정적 문제가 부모가 되는 데 미치는 영향

많은 사람들이 다양한 이유로 아이를 갖지 않기로 결정하는데, 그중에서도 장기적인 파트너를 찾는 데 어려움을 겪는 것이 의외로 흔한 이유입니다.

데이트 앱을 통해 쉽게 사람을 만날 수 있음에도 불구하고 사용자의 75%는 누군가와 관계를 맺는 데 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 이는 번아웃과 정신 건강의 악화로 이어집니다.

30만~40만 달러로 추정되는 미국의 높은 자녀 양육 비용도 잠재적 부모들에게 큰 걸림돌이 되고 있습니다.

육아 비용이 육아 결정에 미치는 영향

인플레이션으로 인해 현재 자녀 양육에 40만~100만 달러가 소요되는 것으로 추정되는 등 보육비는 출산율 저하의 주요 요인입니다.

육아에 대한 경제적 부담은 전 세계적인 문제로, 젊은 성인들이 출산을 미루거나 포기하는 원인이 되고 있습니다.

부모가 되고자 하는 사람들의 비율이 2003년 83%에서 2024년 51%로 감소하는 등 부모가 되고자 하는 문화가 크게 변화하고 있습니다.

출산율 감소가 세계 경제에 미치는 영향

출산율 감소는 노동력 부족으로 이어져 기업이 직원을 구하기 어렵게 만들고 있습니다.

이러한 불균형은 노동 인구의 재정적 부담을 가중시켜 세금 인상과 복지 혜택 감소로 이어지고 있습니다.

근로자 부족은 소득과 사업 비용을 증가시켜 궁극적으로 인플레이션에 기여하고 기업 수익과 주가 하락을 통해 투자자에게도 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

모성 처벌과 가족 계획에 미치는 영향

모성 페널티로 인해 여성은 출산 후 장기적인 임금 격차가 발생하는 반면, 남성은 단기간의 임금 하락만 경험합니다.

영국에서는 어머니가 아버지보다 파트타임으로 일할 가능성이 3배 더 높기 때문에 임금 격차가 발생하고 부모가 직장에 복귀하기 어렵습니다.

일본과 같이 관대한 육아휴직 정책에도 불구하고 출산율이 낮다는 것은 육아 책임에 대한 문화적 규범을 바꾸는 것도 출산율을 높이는 데 중요하다는 것을 시사합니다.

삶의 우선순위에 대한 변화하는 관점

특정 삶의 선택에 대한 사회적 수용은 시간이 지남에 따라 진화해 왔습니다.

통계와 설문조사가 포함된 동영상을 시청하는 것은 제한된 역사에 대한 스냅샷을 제공합니다.

개인이 재정적으로 독립하고 다른 사람들과 삶을 공유하는 것을 고려함에 따라 개인의 우선순위가 바뀔 수 있습니다.