해운 산업: 현재 시장 주기 및 향후 수요 동향

### 유조선 시장 분석 및 에너지 소비 동향
* 🛢 현재 유조선 시장 사이클은 아직 초기 단계에 있으며, 향후 몇 년간 **신조선에 대한 강력한 수요**와 **제한적인 선단 성장**이 예상됩니다.
* 🏗 조선소의 생산 능력 제약은 시장의 핵심 요소로, **2026년 주문은 이미 매진**되었고 **2027년은 생산 능력에 근접**해 있습니다.
* ⛽ 친환경 에너지 전환에 대한 기대에도 불구하고 **석유 소비는 계속 증가**하여 이전의 최대 석유 수요 예측에 도전하고 있습니다.
* 📊 인구 증가와 부의 증가에 따라 에너지 소비가 증가하고 있으며, 에너지 믹스에서 **석유가 차지하는 비중은 오히려 확대**되고 있습니다.
* 🔮 분석가들은 피크 석유 수요 예측을 조정하고 있으며, 일부는 **2040년 또는 2050년으로 앞당기고 있습니다.**
* 🌍 친환경 에너지 전환의 느린 속도는 현재의 석유 수요를 뒷받침하고 있으며, **유조선 시장은 이러한 추세의 혜택**을 받고 있습니다.
* 📈 발표자는 **시장이 수요보다는 공급에 더 가깝고, 공급 제약이 현재 사이클을 주도**하고 있다고 생각합니다.
* 💡 탱커 시장 사이클의 초기 단계는 이 분야 투자자들에게 **지속적인 성장 가능성과 기회**를 시사합니다.

현재 해운 사이클은 발주 열풍과 에너지 수요 증가로 선박 시장 역학에 영향을 미치는 초기 단계를 나타냅니다.

so last time we did an episode, it's actually episode 132. You gave a lot of big lessons that the audience really enjoyed, but one part you spoke about was the Frontline original memo, I think. And you said, you know, Frontline is all about saying, uh, precisely where we are in the cycle, and also, you know, executing. So if this tanker party is going on right now, where are we in the party? Like, is it early in the party? Should we stop drinking alcohol, switch to water just because you don't want to be the last one closing, you know, closing the party? So if you get the analogy because it's been this super cycle has been talked about a lot, and of course you get sentiment momentum. So where do you define this cycle in terms of where are we? Well, I, I, I think we haven't, uh, you know, we haven't even sat down for dinner yet, to be quite honest. So, uh, and I, I have this, um, you know, you kind of for this analogy and imagine, you know, we're

having you know drinks first, then we sit down for dinner. Uh, then obviously we're going to do some dancing and all that stuff. And in Norway, as you know, we do an after party as well. So we actually don't really go home until the Sun is up. So, but we haven't sat down for din yet, I believe. Um, and there's actually clear a few indications about, you know, kind of backing that because over the last couple of months, we've had what some people would refer to as ordering frenzy. Uh, there's been a lot of Suezmaxes, a lot of VLCCs being contracted. You know, on the LR2 side, you could say they started much earlier, but not necessarily from a kind of market point of view, I think, because it's more relating to what shipyards can actually build the various asset classes. And the bigger the asset classes are, the fewer yards can actually build them. And VLCC is quite big, so you need the birth and the size kind of in order.

to to to do build uh but looking at that now so so there's been a frenzy um 2026 is sold out. 2027 is actually starting to. I don't think it's sold out for any, you know, you know. I still think there's possibilities, at least from certain yards, and and if you move maybe what's at least perceived, the lower quality yards, you can probably get a lot of stuff done in 2027. But um, you know, that that gives us. We're only, you know, in the first quarter of 2024. So so so you know, there are a few years ahead of us, uh, and also if you look at how many ships who are not, um, you know, the kind of the Aging profile of the fleet is only getting more and more prominent. Um, so so, um, you know, I think basically what we've see now is that at least for the next few years we're not really going to have any significant Fleet growth in the bigger segments, uh, on the L2 side, yes, but elus again as I've said in my my call and and

I've said a few times, uh, Lusdue to coating tends to have a shorter, uh, lifespan than Sumax and as so, so you, you would more look at the 15E threshold, and then we're actually in the generations that were delivered kind of late, uh, in, in, you know, 2000s. So, 2007, 8, n which are big generations for Lus, um, and, and so basically they will also have this kind of, well, the effectiveness of those fleets will be reduced quite heavily, uh, going forward. So we actually need those 45 or 50, whatever elot are on order right now, we need them to come, uh, and we need, uh, the VC, we need the Su Maxes as well because I think if there's anything that's happened since we did this call the last time is the recognition of the fact that, uh, the green shift is not happening quickly enough, um, and we, you know, we all obviously want alternative energies, we want clean blue skies, we want our children to grow up.

in the world you know with the basically less pollution, but uh, it doesn't happen as quickly as people would have wanted. So, in this equation where you have, you know, the order book, the vessels, and the market, it's, it's fair to say that you're very comfortable with this Market perspective since the order book. But on the other side of the equation is that as easy and predictable because markets, you know, we can get dive into, of course, the market perspectives, but there, there is a lot of unknowns, of course. So, how would you like if you take that equation? This is definitively, uh, a supply story. So, it's not a demand story. Demand is extremely difficult for us to, to, to understand or, or, or, or analyze. I think just the volatility in oil price itself, as I touched upon two years ago as well, is, you know, is not, is not a very efficient market. But I think kind of what we've seen is that overall energy consumption is going up, uh, you know, incidentally, um, kind of around the time we had the call.

two years ago, uh, DMV, you know, they give out their annual report, which is I think it's called Vision 5050. No, sorry, 2050 or something, um, and where they, uh, try to analyze and try to give estimations of how the Energy Mix is going to look in 2050, uh, and they also then have ideas about peak oil demand, you know, when does oil demand start to reduce, replaced, you know, everybody knows energy is probably demand is going to grow, but what's the mix going to be like, right, and and two years ago they actually had us being at the peak in 2019, 2020, so, so, so, uh, well, actually to be fair to them, probably 21 because, um, you know the Assumption was that postco, um, you know, the peak oil demand of hydrocarbons in the mix had peaked already, uh, it's quite obvious that that never happened, so overall, uh, energy demand does follow the, you know, the estimated path, um, and grows more or less with the population growth, and obviously with the

you know, people are becoming more and more wealthy, actually affording to have an Eevee, for instance, or affording to, you know, replace firewood with the, with the, uh, LPG, for instance, uh, and, and, um, so, so, so that's happening. But oil, as a part of the energy mix, is not reducing, it's actually increasing, um, so, so when, you know, I think kind of most analysts and experts looking at this basically have to gradually, re-just their models and they see, and it's not like necessarily it's a disaster for the world because we are actually capturing more of, um, uh, kind of the bad stuff, uh, from our, our, our energy consumption, but, but, but, um, uh, it seems to continue to grow, um, and, you know, I think if you ask, well, if you look at, um, is it BP that do, do their huge analysis, um, then, you know, that kind of peak is starting to move closer and closer to 2040, uh, even some putting it closer to 2050 now, so, so, so we, we, we, you

know, I think on average, last time I checked, uh, last fall, I think the average, if you put all these, you know, uh, uh, numbers together, uh, from the various analysts, uh, you know, we were peing around 2037 or something, now it's moving closer and closer to 2014, yeah.

Frontline CEO, "This Tanker Party Is Just Getting Started" | Lars Barstad On Vonheim

Christopher Vonheim

배송 주기에서 현재 위치 분석하기

발표자는 현재의 해운 사이클을 파티에 비유하며, 최근 몇 달 동안 많은 주문 활동이 있었던 만큼 아직 초기 단계에 있다고 생각합니다.

다양한 선종에 대한 발주 열풍이 이러한 견해를 뒷받침하고 있으며 시장의 관점도 사이클의 위치를 결정하는 데 중요한 요소라고 설명합니다.

또한 조선소 역량이 다양한 자산군의 사이클 타이밍에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 언급합니다.

선박 생산 및 선단 성장에 대한 예측

2026년의 선박 생산량은 이미 매진되었으며, 2027년은 특히 고급 야드에서 빠르게 채워지고 있습니다.

그러나 선단의 노후화가 눈에 띄게 진행되고 있으며, 특히 Lus의 대형 선박은 향후 몇 년 동안 그 효율성이 크게 떨어질 것입니다.

결과적으로 대체 에너지로의 친환경 전환이 더디게 진행되고 있기 때문에 수 맥스를 포함하여 주문한 선박을 인도해야 할 필요성이 있습니다.

에너지 시장의 미래는 수요보다는 공급에 의해 좌우되기 때문에 이해하고 분석하기가 어렵습니다.

유가의 변동성은 에너지 소비가 증가하고 있음에도 불구하고 비효율적인 시장임을 나타냅니다.

비전 2050 보고서에서 제시한 2019~2021년 최대 석유 수요 예상치는 실현되지 않았으며, 에너지 수요는 인구와 함께 계속 증가하고 있습니다.

이브이의 경제성 향상과 LPG 대체 효과

사람들이 부유해지면서 이브를 반려동물로 키울 여유가 생기고 장작에서 LPG로 전환할 수 있게 되었습니다.

그럼에도 불구하고 석유는 여전히 에너지 믹스에서 차지하는 비중이 커지고 있으며, 소비 정점이 2040년 또는 2050년으로 앞당겨질 것으로 예상되어 분석가와 전문가들이 점진적으로 재평가하고 있습니다.

2037년의 평균 전망치는 2037년에서 2014년으로 감소했습니다.

이러한 변화는 다양한 분석가들의 데이터를 기반으로 하며 예상 평균에 상당한 변화가 있음을 나타냅니다.