FMC: 작물 보호 재고 분석 및 투자 기회

### FMC Corporation: 일시적인 역풍을 장기적인 매수 기회로 분석하는 방법
* 📉 FMC Corporation은 **2023년 글로벌 재고 소진**으로 인해 주가가 폭락하여 **내재가치를 중심으로 주가가 거래**되었습니다.
* 📈 2023년에 대한 가이던스를 하향 조정했지만, **2026년에 대한 가이던스를 상향 조정**하여 잠재적인 장기 매수 기회를 제시하고 있습니다.
* 🌽 작물 보호제 시장의 선두주자인 FMC는 **전 세계 인구와 식량 수요 증가**에 힘입어 **3%의 성장률**을 기록하는 등 큰 수혜를 누리고 있습니다.
* 💡 이 회사는 향후 작물 보호에서 벗어나 다각화를 위해 **식물 건강 및 새로운 파이프라인 제품에 투자**하고 있습니다.
* 💰 FMC는 탄탄한 펀더멘털과 좋은 브랜드를 보유하고 있으며 **2026년까지 15억 달러의 IITA를 달성할 계획**입니다.
* 📊 재무 레버리지 문제에 직면했지만 **신용 계약을 수정**했으며 향후에도 **목표 레버리지를 유지**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🎯 평균 순이익이 5억 달러에 달하는 FMC의 현재 **주가수익비율은 약 12**로 매력적인 배당 투자처입니다.
* ⚠ 기존 제초제 및 살충제에 대한 불확실성이 위험 요소이지만, **투자 자본에 대한 높은 수익률**과 해당 부문의 구조적 성장이 유리한 위험-보상 프로필을 제공합니다.

작물 보호제 회사인 FMC는 일시적인 역풍에 직면해 있지만 견고한 펀더멘털과 성장 전망으로 인해 투자자들에게 장기적인 매수 기회가 될 수 있습니다.

good day fellow investors. A very interesting comment from I am Watson 801 suggesting me to research FMC. So they provide crop protection products. The stock and the business has collapsed in 2023 as a result of global inventory destocking at around 50%. The company trades around its intrinsic value. 5% growth 5 years. 10% margin. 40% profit distributions. 1% BuyBacks. 15 terminal multiple. So very interesting situation. They are cutting the guidance for 2023 but increasing the guidance for 2026. Very interesting suggestion. And this might be a situation when we have temporary headwinds creating a long-term buying opportunity for us investors. And that's what we are going to dig into and discuss in this video. If you look at the chart, the market suddenly hates it from loving it a year ago. And this is something that the market cannot understand is the long-term Trend. But we as value investors, we need to find those opportunities that when something is above Trend, we stay away. When something is

below Trend we take a look, and the dividend yield is there. They have the money to keep it there. They have the growth and therefore very interesting to look at this situation. Now, by the way, for those who don't know, this is what I do. I research companies. This is my research platform. I have about 20 covered stocks. We'll see later whether I'll include FMC in the research platform, but as I told you recently, there are now four great buys on the covered stock list. So now it's a great time to join my research platform. Let's go back to discussing FMC that you will see also an impression of the research I do and how it leads to investing ideas. Now, FMC is in the crop protection market. As global population grows, as there is more demand for food, there has been a historic 3% rate over the last 40 years, and these contraction periods are normal. We have seen stocking supply chain issues. You need to have your crop protection, and now that prices are a little bit lower, interest rates have

gone higher, which means keeping inventory is more expensive. Now people are lowering those levels. And there is one bad year. The growth drivers have been, of course, higher food prices, but as the world's population is growing, that is likely the case to be forward, which means that the structural trend is positive. Of course, there can be higher growth rates, slower growth rates. We cannot know correctly. Of course, it's a ccal a little bit. So there will be these ups and downs, but the underlying trend is positive in all the scenarios. If we look at what the company is doing, they are investing now in plant health, new pipeline, and therefore, the crop protection should be a smaller and smaller part of their future sales. So they are diversifying a little bit. For now, they are doing that crop protection, soybeans, rice, sugar, corn, whatever. We can call this a food stock. And you can see here they have insecticides, herbicides, and other things globally diversified, mostly Latin America as there is a lot of food produced. They have a development pipeline con

constantly investing and building new products. They recently had an investor day where they discussed the business. Very interesting overview of what's going on and we're going to go through that presentation to see a little bit what is going there on the state of the market. As I said and also the comment at the beginning of the video, we have significant Des stocking impacting volumes and prices, increasing interest rates, cash flow headwinds, and they think that the stocking will bottom in 2024. Therefore, 2024 will already see an improvement. In the second part of it, they are restructuring, doing their best to save where they can based on great 2022. But this is the nature of business. If demand is high, you need to produce, expecting that level that will continue. If you don't produce and the level of demand continues, you're leaving money on the table. So they have also produced much more. Their inventories are now up as the level of buying is lower. That's natural, but the business fundamentals are strong.

have good brands, and we are going to eat tomorrow. Likely, they are named one of America's most responsible companies, so nothing wrong there. And as we're going to eat, we can take a look at the finance potentials and see what is the risk and reward when it comes to investing in this business. Now, I have looked a little bit, and if we look at the long-term goals, they have a target of growing revenue from 2024 to 2026, reaching IITA of 1.5 billion. High return on invested capital, which is the key when it comes to investing, and good free cash flow conversion. So, 1.5 billion IITA compared to the current market cap of 7 billion. These companies often go for 10 times IITA, so the potential for this company is to be at 15 billion. So that's a 2X from where we are, plus the dividend. And you can see high return on invested capital, as Charlie Munger used to say, is what drives the returns over time.

they keep investing with such returns that will also be your investor return. Yes, there will be ups and downs, but over the long term, the trend is there. So they plan to invest in new products, market growth, and if all else is equal as it was in the past, they should do good long-term. Iita is expected to grow. I think it is about to double over the next decade. So revenues and iita, so nothing wrong there. They did it in the past. Now in this video, we have discussed the categorization of stocks. Check that video out because it's from Peter Lynch's book. And I would categorize this as a stal word. So good company, stable long-term growth, a little bit of a cyclical, but they are constantly doing investing, enlarging good returns on invested capital, and you can make good money by buying these good businesses at a fair or low price, which is the case now. And even with the current year, they have delivered a good but not great return on invested capital, and they expect the free cash flows to return to.

previous levels in the next years. And if they make 750 million in free cash flows, that's a 10% yield that they can then invest. Now we have financial leverage problem as their iita went down, their covenants got broken, but they have had a deal. They have made an amendment to the credit agreement, and they expect peak leverage in 2021. So they have really received good covenants, so 6.5 times iita through June 2024, 3.75 thereafter. They just have three billion of debt, so with iita of 1 billion, they are very good below that long-term covenant. The free cash flow they want to maintain target leverage and pay the dividends. So they say they will keep doing that repurchasing if there is money left. The investment is growth going forward as the market grows, and they are growing return on investment capital. Good increased iita growth, and as that cycle returns, this could give you a 2X further. If we look at what is the valuation now, then we

have net income to company so on average they are making 500 million per year. That should then grow over time. So the p ratio now is around 12. The cash flows are in line. There we have had higher inventories, a great change in networking capital that should be adjusted next year according to the management. Of course, they also do repurchases, so 181 million. They pay a growing dividend, so if they can keep that 300 million for dividends, that's a 4%. So this is also an interesting dividend investment. The cash flows are now negative, but if the market adjusts, there are okay cash flows for dividend. I've looked a little bit at the balance sheet. You see here the jumping inventory of 350 million. You see here there is goodwill on historic acquisition. Total assets 11 billion. If we look at long-term, that is three billion. So you might think it is a lot compared to the market cap, yes, but when things normalize, it should be okay. Here is the amendment to the credit agreement.

so with iita of 800 million, they should be in their Covenant so that should be okay, and there shouldn't be any issues. Of course, if as the management says, strong cash generation happens in 2024, they will pay down that and delivering the dividend to shareholders, so it should be okay. It should be manageable. Now let's see what are the investing expectations there. If I look at their current situation, BuyBacks dividends 500 million is what they can make on an average year. If they grow 5%, that's a good 12% return, so that's double-digit returns, which is okay. Further on that return in 2019, they spun off livant, so that's also three billion in market cap that they have created value that you don't see it in the stock price. And I will analyze this as my next stock. I have already analyzed so we'll see about that in the next video, and I can tell you it is a very, very interesting proposition to look at lithium now.

last year now that nobody likes lithium, that prices are down. Now, it's the interesting time to look at this. So let's discuss the risk and reward. Of course, the risk is that it looks like they should be able to manage this, but if things keep looking bad for them, but it is unlikely we need to eat, we need to use these things. Unfortunately, so a risk to mention, but I don't think the downturn could last that if the stocking is over, purchases will return to normality as farmers use these things. However, I think that a risk is Legacy herbicides insecticides. What if they find something there like it has been the case to Monsanto? Of course, if they find something, they just need to call buyer. They will dump 20 billion to buy this and then solve the problems later. So as a shareholder, you might get released there from issues, but I'm thinking that there's so much disease that we don't yet know from where it's going. So that is also a risk that might be significant for the long term that is.

the risk and there are likely other risks, but good return on invested capital, good company structural growth in the sector. So, uh, the reward is also there. Of course, the stock can always go lower, but from the risk and reward perspective, this looks like, uh, by when that Returns the EIT returns. It could be a 2X over the long term. Now, herbicides, insecticides is not really a thing I'm a fan of. I will like Liv more in the next video and lithium, which is interesting, more commoditized than I do. So just from a personal situation, I'm not going to cover this, even if it could be a good buy for our YouTube portfolio. But then I have to learn about pesticides and things like that, and that's just a personal situation that I'm not going to. I need to enjoy my life, enjoy investing, and therefore this is not for me. But you see the process, I research it, I learn about it, and then it leads reminds me of Livent that you will see is much more to my liking, commodity, etc., than herbicides.

so I'll see you in the next video discussing lent. I have given you the information. If you like this, you can put it on your watch list or diversified portfolio. It looks very, very interesting. I hope you have gotten value. Check what I do on my research platform. I'll see you in the next video.

FMC Stock is a Stock To Buy!

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FMC 재고 및 비즈니스 상황 분석

작물 보호 제품을 제공하는 FMC는 2023년에 전 세계적인 재고 부족으로 인해 재고가 50% 감소하고 비즈니스가 붕괴되는 경험을 했습니다.

현재 이 회사는 향후 5년간 5%의 성장률과 10%의 이익률이 예상되는 내재가치 근처에서 거래되고 있습니다.

2023년에 대한 가이던스를 하향 조정했음에도 불구하고 FMC는 2026년에 대한 가이던스를 상향 조정하여 식량 수요의 긍정적인 기본 추세와 회사의 다각화 노력으로 인해 투자자들에게 잠재적인 장기 매수 기회를 제시하고 있습니다.

이 회사는 재고 영향, 구조조정, 높은 수요를 충족하기 위한 생산량 증가를 경험하고 있으며 2024년까지 개선될 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

IITA에서 15억 달러 달성이라는 장기적인 목표를 가지고 있으며 높은 투자 자본 수익을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

이 회사는 향후 10년간 IITA를 두 배로 늘릴 수 있는 잠재력을 가진 안정적이고 좋은 투자처로 여겨지며 투자자들에게 좋은 수익을 제공합니다.

회사의 재무 전망 및 투자 전략

이 회사는 양호한 재무 레버리지를 유지하고 재매입과 성장을 위한 투자를 통해 배당금을 계속 지급하는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

시장이 성장함에 따라 투자 자본에 대해 2배의 추가 수익을 기대하고 있습니다.

현재 P 비율은 약 12이며, 내년에는 더 나은 현금 흐름을 위해 재고와 네트워킹 자본을 조정할 계획입니다.

현재는 마이너스 현금 흐름을 보이고 있지만, 시장이 조정되면 배당금 지급을 위한 현금 흐름은 괜찮을 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

회사의 대차 대조표에는 재고가 크게 증가하고 역사적인 인수로 인한 영업권이 많이 포함되어 있지만, 정상화되면 괜찮아질 것이라고 확신하고 있습니다.

8억 달러의 예상 수익으로 회사의 재무 상황이 개선되어 주주에게 배당금을 지급하고 부채를 관리할 수 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

회사는 자사주 매입과 배당으로 연평균 5억의 이익을 예상하고 있으며, 5% 성장을 달성할 경우 12%의 잠재적 수익률을 기대합니다.

이 분석은 또한 리반트의 분사를 통한 가치 창출을 고려하여 리튬 투자에 대한 유망한 기회를 제시합니다.

그러나 시장 침체의 영향과 기존 제초제 및 살충제와 관련된 문제가 발견될 수 있으며, 이를 해결하기 위해 상당한 재원이 필요할 수 있다는 잠재적 위험도 있습니다.

투자 기회 평가하기: 위험, 보상, 개인적 선호도

이 주식은 장기적으로 2배의 수익이 예상되는 등 투자 자본에 대한 좋은 수익률을 보여 주지만 잠재적인 가치 하락의 위험도 수반합니다.

투자자는 개인적 선호도 때문에 제초제와 살충제에는 관심이 없지만 향후 투자 기회로 리튬과 리벤트가 더 매력적이라고 생각합니다.

투자 과정과 삶을 즐기는 데 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 다양한 포트폴리오에 리벤트를 추가하는 것을 고려할 것을 권장합니다.