연방준비제도, 금리 인하: 경제적 영향 설명

### 연방준비제도의 역사적인 금리 인하: 경제와 시장에 대한 시사점
* 📉 2020년 3월 이후 처음으로 연방준비제도이사회는 금리를 인하하여 **인플레이션이 통제되고 있다는 자신감**을 표명하고 경제 정책의 중대한 변화를 예고했습니다.
* 📊 최근 인플레이션 보고서에 따르면 **2020년 2월 이후 소비자 물가가 평균 21.2% 상승**했지만 **8월에 2% 상승한 것은 하락 추세**를 시사하며 연준이 금리를 인하할 수 있는 기회를 제공합니다.
* 💼 2021년 1월 이후 가장 적은 수의 신규 채용과 **3년 만에 가장 작은 급여 증가** 등 고용 시장이 약세를 보이자 연준은 고용을 지원하고 물가를 안정시키기 위해 행동에 나섰습니다.
* 📈 역사적으로 금리 인하는 경기 침체를 예상하고 단행하는 경우가 많았기 때문에 **즉각적인 주식 시장 상승으로 이어지지지 않았으며**, 따라서 주식 시장에 미치는 영향은 여전히 불확실하고 경제 전반의 건전성에 달려 있습니다.
* 🏡 주택 시장에서는 금리가 낮아지면 모기지 수요가 증가할 수 있지만, 현재의 **높은 모기지 금리와 사상 최저 수준의 경제성**으로 인해 당장의 가격 급등은 완화될 수 있습니다.
* 🏠 주택 매물의 일부 가격 인하에도 불구하고, 많은 주택 소유자가 더 높은 가격에 팔기를 꺼리기 때문에 주택 시장이 완전히 활성화되려면 **모기지 금리를 대폭 인하**해야 한다고 전문가들은 제안합니다.
* 💰 연준의 최근 결정은 경기 침체를 방지하고 경제를 안정적으로 유지하기 위한 것으로, **2026년까지 금리가 낮아질 것**이라는 전망과 함께 향후 일련의 금리 인하를 암시합니다.
* 🔍 전반적으로 연준의 신중한 접근 방식은 **인플레이션과 경제 성장을 관리하는 것**을 목표로 하며, 데이터에 의존하고 결정이 더 넓은 경제에 미칠 수 있는 잠재적 영향에 대해 신중을 기하고 있습니다.

연방준비제도의 금리 인하는 인플레이션, 시장, 개인 재정에 영향을 미치는 새로운 경제 궤도를 예고하는 신호입니다.

What's up, you guys? It's Graham here, and I hope you're prepared for what just happened. As of a few hours ago, for the first time since March of 2020, the Federal Reserve has finally made the decision to lower interest rates after one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in history. That's right, without exaggeration, this single decision sets a brand new trajectory that not only confirms that the Federal Reserve believes inflation is over, but it's about to affect everything from the stock market, the housing market, the national debt, and even how much you get paid within a savings account. No joke, if you have any amount of money stashed away whatsoever, this is going to directly impact you almost immediately. That's why we really have to discuss exactly what the Federal Reserve just said, the impact this is about to have on all things money, what history tells us is most likely to happen next, and then most importantly, how you could use this information to profit. Although before we start, as usual, if you appreciate me trying to frantically edit all of this

together to give you the most up-to-date information. It would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribed if you haven't done that already. Doing that is totally free. It takes you a split second, and as a thank you for doing that, I'll do my best to reply to as many comments as I can. So, thanks so much, and also a big thank you to Policy Genius for sponsoring today's video, but more on that later. All right, so in terms of why the Federal Reserve finally felt comfortable lowering interest rates, as well as how low these interest rates could possibly go, all of this comes down to the recent inflation report. Now, even though consumer prices have risen across the board by an average of 21.2% since February of 2020, there is some good news in the fact that recently prices have begun to come back down, which has given the Federal Reserve some room to begin cutting interest rates before the entire economy goes to... okay, in all seriousness, as far as where consumer prices are headed, it

was recently reported that inflation only rose by 2% in August, which was the lowest level since February of 2021. This effectively puts the 12-month inflation rate at just 25%, with energy being one of the main culprits, having fallen 4%. On top of that, used cars and trucks have declined 10%, new vehicles are down 1.2%, and oil is down 12.1% over a year. However, the only sticking point here is that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is pretty much unchanged from the last month at 3.2%, all because housing remains incredibly high at a 5.2% increase over the last year. Of course, in this case, housing is seen as a lagging indicator because the prices that we see today are often the result of data that was signed a year ago. But this could be a reason why some people don't see as big of a rate cut as they would have liked. On top of that, we have another metric that greatly contributes

to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, and that would be the jobs market. Look, here's the thing: the Federal Reserve's entire objective is to simply support the goals of maximum employment and stable prices, which is a really fancy way of saying they're going to do everything within their power to make sure the cost of goods and services doesn't skyrocket out of control without ruining everyone's lives in the process, of course. When it comes to that, one of the metrics they look at is the jobs market because this signals how many people are employed, how many jobs are available, and if wages are strong enough to support the average person. However, as it turns out, their recent interest rate hikes have been enough to result in the fewest jobs available since January of 2021. In addition to that, August payrolls also saw their smallest gain in 3 years, confirming that hiring has slowed down significantly. This means that most likely the Federal Reserve has reached the maximum that they're willing to push, and everything from here on out is

simply about not screwing it up, but in terms of where things get really interesting, we got to talk about the stock market. When it comes to this, there is one single question that every investor wants to know: Is the stock market going to go up or down as the Federal Reserve cuts rates? After all, in theory, when rates are lower, businesses could borrow for less, growth expands, and your meme stock portfolio returns to levels you haven't seen since 2021. But plenty of charts show the opposite, where nearly every single time the FED cuts rates, the stock market plummets by an average of more than 20%. So what's actually true? Well, historically, the Federal Reserve hasn't dropped rates unless they absolutely need to. Like, they don't just say, Hey, so that Japan stuff kind of spooked the market a little bit, so here's a rate cut to get your profits back. Instead, they usually drop rates in anticipation of events that could be really bad for the economy, almost as a way to help soften the blow, and this has

been the case throughout the last three recessions. Like in 2001, they lowered rates before the dot-com bubble. In 2008, they lowered rates during the Great Recession. And in 2020, they lowered rates before everything shut down, almost as though they knew what was going to happen before the rest of us did. But you know what? That's besides the point anyway. In these cases, the market drop wasn't due to the rate cuts themselves, but rather the events that led to the rate cuts being necessary. So, in this case, is a rate cut going to lead to a stock market sell-off? Drum roll. The answer is: it depends. On the one hand, since the stock market is always forward-thinking, the stock market could sell off since rate cuts like this are already priced in. For instance, one of investing.com analysis made the argument that investors front-run and anticipate any rate hikes or cuts that may come up, and therefore where the market is trading at today already takes this into account. They also made the argument that

the Federal Reserve is somewhat trained investors to the point where if things get really bad, investors know that the FED is always going to step in to save the day. Or, as they say, any financial or recessionary event jeopardizing the markets would be met with rate cuts and accommodative policy. For many investors in the markets today, their entire investing experience consists of continual interventions by the Federal Reserve. That's why the market has so far only gone higher. But in terms of rate cuts of the past and previous downturns, there's an answer to that. For the most part, the Federal Reserve started cutting rates due to the onset of a recession, a bear market, or a financial event at that point. As shown on screen, the markets are pricing for lower expectations of earnings growth rates and profitability, or basically in terms of what's most likely to happen. History tells us that it all depends on whether or not we see a recession, which also means that rate cuts make less of a difference than we think it does compared to the overall.

health of the economy. This also means that everything we're seeing today is most likely already priced in, unless, of course, there's a looming disastrous event the Federal Reserve is trying to get ahead of. But is this the same for the housing market? Although before we go on that, at the end of the day, the goal is really just about improving your financial future. After all, things happen all the time that's outside of your control, like you can't predict what the Federal Reserve is going to do, you have no idea how the stock market is going to perform in the short term, and health is something that almost all of us take for granted. Like when it comes to that last part, nearly half of Americans expect that if they passed away today, their loved ones would inherit their debt, and 41% don't have the life insurance coverage they need, which is why our sponsor Policy Genius is there to help. For those unaware, Policy Genius is the country's leading online insurance marketplace, making it easy to compare life insurance quotes from America's top

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federal reserve's latest statements and what they anticipate happening in the markets. Let's discuss the topic that everyone is wondering about: housing prices. At first glance, there's the concern that lower interest rates are going to spark more demand for cheaper mortgages because buyers' monthly payments go down. Buyers could afford to pay more, and that in turn will cause more demand for housing, causing prices to spike back up, especially when home affordability is at a record low. However, even though prices are still hovering near all-time highs, the good news for buyers is that prices are starting to get cut. For example, a recent report found that the share of available listings that saw a price cut in July rose to 18.9%, causing the median price to fall from $445,000 to $439,000. Why? Well, realtor.com says that there are two reasons for this. First, mortgage rates remain higher than expected, causing less buyer demand. And two, a lot of would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for interest rates to come back.

down, causing sellers to reduce their asking prices to entice them back. But what happens when interest rates begin coming back down? Well, in terms of mortgage rates, the realtor.com Chief Economist seems to think that a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut isn't going to be that big of a difference, and it's going to take something much more significant for the average buyer to begin to notice. Like, just for context, it said that a 1% decrease in mortgage rates would allow for an additional 5 million buyers to qualify. But the mortgages we're likely to see are only going to be reduced from 6.47% to 6.3% with the recent cut. That's because mortgages are mainly priced based on the 10-year treasury yield plus an additional 2 to 3% so that banks make a little bit of profit. And as you could see, these rates are pretty much even from what we saw a year ago. On top of that, it said that roughly 86% of

outstanding mortgages of a rate of 6% or below, meaning rates are going to need to continue trending lower to see a fully re-energized housing market in such a way that would entice homeowners to sell. After all, who would want to give up a 3% mortgage just to buy another home at 6%? Basically, it's presumed that the Federal Reserve is looking for just the right spot to be able to cut rates enough to keep our economy afloat, but not so much that it floods the market with excess demand and sends prices back up again. That's why for buyers, this first rate cut isn't going to have that large of an impact, but it is going to lead to the choice of buying a house at higher rates with less competition, or buying a house with lower rates but more competition. Really, at the end of the day, housing prices take some time to be able to fully react, and any changes are going to take time to materialize. But in terms of where prices are headed in the future, The Mortgage

Bankers Association believes that prices will increase another 2.9% in 2025. Fannie Mae believes we could see prices rise 3%, and NA estimates that prices could increase by another 2%. In terms of rental prices, though, that's another story entirely. New data found that one in three property managers offered a concession on rents amid a glut of supply. That's right, multifamily construction is on the rise, with more units completed in June than any other month in nearly 50 years. However, even though 30% of properties are giving out freebies, the rest are still going up, with rental prices now 3.4% higher than they were a year ago, with 4.7% being the increase on single-family homes and 2.6% being the increase on multifamily properties. Although speaking of increases, there is one more market that we have to talk about before diving into the Federal Reserve meeting, and that would be Bitcoin. Now I'll admit, usually this isn't a topic I cover fairly often.

because one, it's extremely speculative, and two, any price predictions just seem like a random guess in the dark. But I did find it interesting that recently the number of active Bitcoin addresses has declined significantly. Why, you might ask? Well, one article from Coin Telegraph believes that it could be a combination of investors locking up their Bitcoin and holding longer, the irrelevance of wallets thanks to Bitcoin ETFs, and a lot less active trading because Bitcoin has been a lot less volatile. Now, a separate analyst believes that the years of Bitcoin's peak compound annual growth are likely over, meaning investors may need to put in more upfront to see better returns. On the other hand, this chart seems to suggest that more and more people are in the accumulation phase, which could lead to a new period of stabilization and growth. The reason I'm saying all of this is because both presidential candidates have made it clear that they intend to make cryptocurrency a central part of their policy, with Trump saying that he has a plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet.

and the Bitcoin superpower of the world, along with Kamala accepting donations through Coinbase. It seems as though this is going to be a huge selling point for either candidate. Ender realizing that the entire community is growing rather large, but in terms of how this is going to be impacted by Jerome Powell and the recent rate cut. Here's what you need to know. As of a few hours ago, for the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a staggering 50 basis points, all because the job market is somewhat weakening, which was caused in the first place by higher interest rates. As far as what Jerome Powell recently said about this, he reiterated that their fight against inflation is working, progress is being made, restrictive policy isn't needed to such a large extent, and a rate cut at this time begins to make a lot of sense, or basically put another way, they want to make sure the entire economy doesn't collapse because hiring has started to slow down. So, a rate cut at this time is going to help soften the blow, and then

We could see even more rate cuts in the future. How do we know? Well, today is also when they released their summary of economic projections, which estimates where they believe we will see employment, inflation, and interest rates over the next few years. In this case, they believe that interest rates of 2026 are going to be dramatically lower than they are today, implying that we're going to see a series of rate cuts over the next few months and years. After all, there is the concern that GDP is going to slow down, unemployment is going to rise, and if that's what they anticipate, it makes sense to begin cutting interest rates today to help smooth everything out. All in all, none of this meeting was too surprising. A lot of it was exactly as people expected, and if history has shown us anything, it's that the Federal Reserve tends to move a bit slower than people think. That's probably a good thing given the volatility of the economy, but it also means that we're most likely not going to see anything that the

Federal Reserve doesn't prepare us or warn us about far, far in advance. That's why overall today just reiterates that they're going to make their decisions meeting by meeting, take it slow, be data-dependent, and then most importantly avoid a recession, which like I mentioned earlier would greatly affect the entire economy. After all, if we enter a recession, all indicators point to a stock market decline, a labor market that gets worse, and an economy that slows down dramatically. So if they could reduce interest rates ahead of time before a disastrous event, that could help prevent it entirely. In the big picture though, it does seem as though we're most likely going to see a series more of rate cuts in the future. Restrictive policy like this is no longer needed to help bring down inflation, and right now is really just a game of patience to watch prices slowly come back down. To me, none of this was that big of a surprise since they've really gone above and beyond in terms of signaling their intentions for the future, but time will tell how this plays.

out for the rest of the year, especially now that elections are less than 50 days away. So let me know what you guys think of all this down below in the comment section. As always, I will do my best to reply to as many of them as I can. And if you're not already subscribed, you're going to want to do it because it's totally free. It takes you a split second. And I'll cover the next meeting that happens in November. So thank you guys so much. Really appreciate it. And until next time.

URGENT: Federal Reserve Announces MASSIVE Rate Cut, Bailout Begins!

As a 30 year old real estate agent and investor who started working in real estate shortly after turning 18, with over $120,000,000 in residential real estate sales since 2008, I've created this channel to share my successes, failures, and experiences in the real estate industry and to support others who are thinking of getting into the business. Oh, and I'm also obsessed with cars. A lot. So expect to see some cars uploaded to my channel. A lot. And Subscribe. Because all the cool kids are doing it.  

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Graham Stephan

연방준비제도, 2020년 이후 처음으로 금리 인하

연방준비제도이사회가 금리를 인하하기로 결정하면서 긴축 사이클의 중대한 전환이 이루어지고 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있다는 신호가 감지되고 있습니다.

이번 결정은 주식 시장, 주택 시장, 국가 부채, 저축 계좌 금리 등 다양한 부문에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

최근 데이터에 따르면 소비자 물가, 특히 에너지와 중고차 가격이 하락하고 있지만 핵심 인플레이션은 여전히 높은 주택 비용으로 인해 변동이 없는 것으로 나타났습니다.

연방준비제도가 고용 시장과 주식 시장에 미치는 영향

연방준비제도는 최대 고용과 물가 안정을 목표로 하고 있지만, 최근 금리 인상으로 인해 2021년 1월 이후 가장 적은 일자리가 생겨났고 3년 만에 가장 적은 급여 상승률을 기록했습니다.

연준의 금리 인하와 주식 시장의 관계는 복잡하며, 과거 데이터를 보면 금리 인하는 종종 경기 침체에 선행하는 것으로 나타났습니다.

금리 인하에 대한 주식 시장의 반응은 금리 인하에 이미 가격이 반영되어 잠재적인 매도 또는 진정된 반응으로 이어질 수 있기 때문에 다양할 수 있습니다.

연방준비제도이사회가 투자자에게 미치는 영향

연방준비제도의 개입으로 투자자들은 금융 침체기에 금리 인하와 완화적 정책을 기대하도록 훈련되었습니다.

시장의 현재 성과는 경제의 전반적인 건전성이 중요한 역할을 하는 수익 성장과 수익성에 대한 낮은 기대감의 영향을 받고 있습니다.

연준의 조치는 생각만큼 큰 변화를 가져오지 않을 수 있으며, 현재 시장 상황은 이미 가격에 반영되어 있을 가능성이 높습니다.

연방준비제도가 주택 가격에 미치는 영향

연방준비제도의 금리 인하로 인해 저렴한 모기지에 대한 수요가 증가하여 주택 가격이 상승할 것으로 예상됩니다.

그러나 최근 보고서에 따르면 가격이 인하된 매물이 18.

9% 증가하는 등 가격이 하락하기 시작했습니다.

com의 수석 이코노미스트는 모기지 금리의 소폭 인하는 구매자 수요에 미치는 영향이 미미하며 주택 시장에 완전히 활력을 불어넣으려면 상당한 금리 인하가 필요하다고 말합니다.

은행협회, 패니매, NA는 모두 2025년에 집값이 상승할 것으로 전망하고 있으며, 부동산 관리업체의 할인 혜택에도 불구하고 임대 가격도 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

다가구 주택 건설이 호황을 누리면서 공급 과잉으로 이어지고 있는 반면, 비트코인의 활성 주소는 감소하여 투자자의 행동이 변화하고 있음을 나타냅니다.

연방준비제도이사회는 고용 시장이 약화되는 가운데 경제를 안정시키기 위해 4년 만에 처음으로 금리 인하했습니다.

연방준비제도의 경제 전망에 따르면 2026년까지 금리가 크게 낮아질 것으로 예상되며, 이는 향후 수개월 및 수년 내에 일련의 금리 인하가 있을 것임을 시사합니다.

연준의 신중한 접근 방식은 데이터에 의존한 의사 결정에 중점을 두고 잠재적인 GDP 둔화와 실업률 상승에 대처하는 것을 목표로 합니다.

전반적으로 이번 회의 결과는 예상과 일치하며 경기 침체와 경제에 미치는 부정적인 영향을 방지하기 위한 선제적인 금리 인하의 중요성을 강조했습니다.