엔비디아, 연준, 시장 예측에 대한 Druckenmiller의 인사이트

드루켄밀러는 연방준비제도의 실수가 인플레이션과 경제 경착륙으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고합니다.

### 시장 전문가 드루켄밀러의 인사이트: 엔비디아, 연준, 선거 역학 관계에 대한 고찰
* 🧠 드물게 인터뷰를 하는 것으로 유명한 드루켄밀러는 자신의 투자 전략과 시장 전망에 대한 깊은 통찰력을 공유했는데, 특히 주가가 **800달러에서 1,300달러 이상으로 급등**하자 너무 빨리 팔았던 엔비디아에 대해 "큰 실수"였다고 인정했습니다.
* 📈 그는 엔비디아 주식 매각에 대한 아쉬움에도 불구하고 **AI 데이터센터의 전력 공급과 관련된 투자가 유망**하다고 말하며 **AI 인프라의 장기적인 잠재력에 대한 믿음**을 강조했습니다.
* 🏦 드루켄밀러는 연방준비제도를 비판적으로 평가하면서 주식 시장과 금값이 사상 최고치를 기록하는 등 경제에 실질적인 제약이 없는 상황에서 **최근 금리 인하 결정은 잘못된 결정**이라고 주장했습니다.
* 📊 그는 **연준의 잘못된 계산으로 인플레이션이 다시 상승**하면 시장의 독립성을 위협해 통화정책이 긴축될 가능성이 있다고 지적했습니다.
* 🗳 정치적인 측면에서는 **시장 지표가 트럼프의 승리 가능성**을 가리키고 있으며, 이는 보다 기업 친화적인 환경과 잠재적인 규제 완화로 이어질 수 있다며 여론조사에 대해 회의적인 입장을 표명했습니다.
* 💰 드루켄밀러는 인플레이션 가속화로 인한 잠재적 이익이 위험보다 크다고 보고 **채권 숏 포지션**을 유지하고 있으며, **미국 국채 10년물 수익률이 5.5% 내외**가 될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
* 📉 연준에 대한 비판적인 시각에도 불구하고 최근 설문조사에 따르면 경제학자들은 **제롬 파월 의장을 긍정적으로 평가**하면서 **안정적인 실업률과 2% 내외의 GDP 성장**을 예상하는 등 경제에 대한 전망이 엇갈리는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* ⚡ 그는 **AI와 전력 공급의 교차점**을 강조하며 **엔비디아의 부상**과 같은 중요한 발전이 이 조합에서 나올 수 있다고 말하며 시청자들에게 계속 정보를 얻고 참여할 것을 촉구하며 강연을 마무리했습니다.

Today, I have brought an interview with Druckenmiller, who rarely appears for interviews. Since he is not someone who frequently participates in interviews, we will be able to gain deep insights into the thoughts of Druckenmiller, who is known as a market guru. 

First, the part I found most interesting was Druckenmiller's self-reflection. It is already known that Druckenmiller bought a lot of Nvidia stock and recently sold a significant amount. The host asked him a question: In the past, you mentioned that you would hold Nvidia for several years, but recently you have sold a lot. How much do you still hold, and why are you selling? To this, Druckenmiller replied, I have made many mistakes in my investments, and one of them was selling all of my Nvidia shares.

The news about selling came up for the first time in this interview. They mentioned that it was a huge mistake to sell everything. When they sold, the price was between $800 and $950, and in the past, during an interview, the stock was around $300. They had said back then that they would hold onto it for several years, but they also admitted that they are not Warren Buffett, implying that they are not someone who holds stocks for a very long time. However, within a year, the stock tripled, and they thought the valuation was high. Now, the stock is over $1,300 per share, so it was indeed a mistake. Nonetheless, they believe in the long-term potential of AI, particularly in the infrastructure aspect that supports AI, meaning that stocks related to power supply for AI data centers are good. There is a way to play in AI from an infrastructure perspective. Regardless, NVIDIA is a great company, and the stock price has...

If it drops, it will go back up again, but right now, I was hurt by hastily selling. This is what I'm saying regarding the Federal Reserve. They made a mistake with the 50 basis points. Currently, the Fed is lowering interest rates under the logic that rates are restrictive. However, I do not believe in the theoretical concepts that some scholars talk about; I believe in the market and market indicators. But look at the market: the stock market is at an all-time high, gold is at an all-time high, GDP is exceeding trends, and the outlook for bank earnings is good. There are no perceived restrictions. As for cryptocurrencies, this is about the Fed looking at guidance rather than data. If the Fed is wrong and inflation rises again, this will be a nightmare for the independence of the market and the Fed. If monetary policy is not actually restrictive and expansion is ongoing, then perhaps the Fed will tighten again.

They are talking about Trump and Harris again. As I mentioned yesterday, Trump commented on the Federal Reserve, saying that the Fed officials are idiots. He claimed they decide interest rates by flipping a coin once a month and are called 'gods.' So the host asks, If Trump becomes president, won't the independence of the Federal Reserve be severely compromised? In response, trucking Miller says that the problem is not Trump; rather, the Fed is collapsing due to its own mistakes. The Fed is fixated on soft landing and fine-tuning, but its original purpose was to focus on avoiding large-scale financial crises. It is not there to make minor adjustments. They need to stop fine-tuning and look at the bigger picture. If they continue like this, inflation could rise, and ultimately, there will be no soft landing.

It could be a hard landing. That's the response I get. Regarding the election dynamics, honestly, if you asked me ten days ago, I would have said I don't know who would win. But now, Trump is someone who doesn't believe in polls and trusts market indicators. If you look at the market indicators, Trump's victory seems to be in sight. I don't trust polls that have declining response rates; I only look at market indicators. Back in the 1980s, almost all experts predicted Reagan would lose, but the market indicators at the time predicted a Reagan victory, which turned out to be correct. Currently, bank stocks and cryptocurrency prices are rising, and looking at Trump's stocks, they are also going up. This suggests that at this point, the market sees a Trump victory as likely. Since the presidential and congressional elections are happening simultaneously, various possibilities arise, but I believe the Democrats are all mixed up, and I see blue states as having the lowest probability of success.

If Harris wins the presidential election, it seems likely that the Senate will still be held by the Republicans. There is also a possibility that the Republicans could win both the presidential election and the Senate, which is something I am monitoring closely. If there is a blue wave, the market could face significant challenges, and the impact on the economy would be considerable. However, a red wave could lead to deregulation and a more business-friendly environment, which might strengthen the economy relatively. That said, concerns about inflation will likely force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, so I am somewhat worried about bonds. I also have some concerns about the downward trend in the stock market. 

Regarding bonds, on the very day the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points, I took a short position in bonds, and I am still maintaining that position. In the short term, I cannot predict where things will go, but if...

If the Fed is wrong and inflation accelerates, I could make hundreds of basis points. However, conversely, even if the Fed is right, I would only lose a few tens of basis points. This means that when shorting bonds, the potential gains are large while the potential losses are small. This is a much more favorable bet on the short side, which is the outlook of Druckenmiller. So, honestly, I think that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury should be trading around 5.5% given the current GDP situation. This is what Druckenmiller says. Now, let's take a look at the stock market situation today. Overall, we saw a rebound rally, and the Russell index rose significantly. As I mentioned yesterday, the market still argues that a rate cut creates a favorable environment for small-cap stocks. I can mention this point, and today the monthly Economist survey results were released, which I will share as well.

If Miller is delivering somewhat negative news, economists are providing a more positive outlook. Although Drunken Miller has harshly evaluated the Federal Reserve, a survey conducted a month ago showed that economists gave Jerome Powell an impressive grade of 45.1%. This can be seen as a generous assessment. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steadily around 4.2% in the long term, with no sharp increase in unemployment anticipated. While there may be fluctuations in GDP in the short term, it is projected to stabilize at around 2% in the long term. Inflation is also expected to stabilize at around 2%. Therefore, if inflation and GDP growth are consistently around 2%, it can be viewed as quite balanced. Let's also consider the changes that Trump and health policies may bring, depending on who is elected. An overwhelming assessment indicates that if Trump is elected, inflation will rise, with a rating of 66.

The Economist's evaluation indicates that if Trump becomes president, interest rates will likely rise. This can be seen as a related question, essentially the same question: who will create a larger budget deficit? The answer from economists is also Trump. Which candidate is more favorable for growth? They responded that Harris is more favorable. If Trump's tariff policy is implemented, how will employment be affected? It will decrease, according to 59.1% of economists. In short, from the perspective of economists, Harris is viewed as better. This can be seen from the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. I want to reiterate that these are not my opinions; one is the opinion of Druckenmiller, and the other is the result of a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal involving 66 economists. I hope there is no misunderstanding. Looking at the differences in the economic field, in terms of budget deficits, they are similar, but Druckenmiller's view is that the Republican Party...

When it was done, Yong-jae said it was better, but many economists from 1966 are divided on the opinion that the economy is better when the Democratic Party is in power. Many big tech companies are heading towards nuclear power. Today, Amazon is also moving towards nuclear power; they are investing in power supply for AWS. The amount itself wasn't large, but ultimately, as I mentioned at the beginning, the implications shown by Drunken Miller suggest that something as massive as NVIDIA will emerge from the combination of AI and power. I hope you keep this in mind. The judgment is yours. This concludes the Brand View video we prepared today, and please also support us with subscriptions and likes for Wall Street Weekly. Thank you.

[홍장원의 불앤베어] 연준이 금리내린날, 나는 채권에 숏베팅했다. 드러켄밀러가 보는 제2의 엔비디아는

월가에서 월급받는 부자되는 비법을 전수합니다!

매경 월가월부

엔비디아 주식에 대한 드루켄밀러의 인사이트

드물게 인터뷰를 하는 것으로 유명한 드루켄밀러는 자신의 투자 실수, 특히 엔비디아 주식을 모두 매각하기로 한 결정에 대해 반성했습니다.

그는 특히 현재 주가가 주당 1,300달러 이상으로 올랐기 때문에 800~950달러에 매각한 것은 큰 실수였다고 인정했습니다.

이러한 실수에도 불구하고 드러켄밀러는 AI의 장기적인 잠재력, 특히 AI 데이터 센터를 위한 인프라 관련 주식에 대해 낙관적인 전망을 유지하고 있습니다.

연방준비제도이사회 조치에 대한 비판

연설자는 연방준비제도의 금리 인하 결정에 불만을 표하며 50 베이시스 포인트 인하가 실수였다고 생각합니다.

연준의 논리에도 불구하고 주식 시장과 금값이 사상 최고치를 기록하는 등 시장 지표는 아무런 제한을 느끼지 못하고 있습니다.

연설자는 연준의 접근 방식이 인플레이션 상승으로 이어지면 시장과 연준 자체의 독립성이 훼손될 수 있다고 경고합니다.

시장 지표는 은행 주가와 암호화폐 가격이 상승하는 등 트럼프의 승리 가능성을 시사하고 있습니다.

대선과 의회 선거가 동시에 치러지면서 다양한 가능성이 제기되고 있지만, 민주당은 고전하고 있는 것으로 보입니다.

레드 웨이브는 규제 완화와 경제 강세로 이어질 수 있지만, 인플레이션에 대한 우려는 연방준비제도이사회를 더욱 매파적인 자세로 이끌고 채권과 주식 시장의 하락 추세에 대한 우려를 키울 수 있습니다.

채권 공매도는 인플레이션이 가속화될 경우 큰 수익을 얻을 수 있는 반면 잠재적 손실은 최소화할 수 있습니다.

드러켄밀러는 현재 GDP 상황을 고려할 때 10년 만기 미국 국채 수익률이 약 5.

드러켄밀러의 연준에 대한 부정적인 평가에도 불구하고 경제학자들은 보다 긍정적인 전망을 내놓으며 주식 시장이 반등하고 있습니다.

트럼프 대통령 재임 기간과 해리스 대통령의 경제적 영향

경제학자들은 트럼프가 대통령이 되면 금리와 예산 적자가 증가할 것으로 예상하는 반면, 해리스가 성장에 더 유리할 것으로 보고 있습니다.

1%는 트럼프의 관세 정책이 고용을 감소시킬 것으로 예상했습니다.

일부 경제학자들은 민주당의 집권이 경제에 더 좋다고 생각하는 반면, 아마존을 비롯한 거대 기술 기업들은 원자력 발전으로 전환하고 있어 잠재적으로 AI와 전력 공급에 상당한 발전을 가져올 것으로 전망하는 등 경제에 대한 의견은 분분합니다.