연방 준비 은행의 금리 인하와 경제 전망

연방준비제도의 금리 인하는 실업 위험이 증가하고 경제 안정이 필요한 상황에서 긴급한 신호입니다.

### 연방 준비 은행의 균형 잡힌 행동: 인플레이션과 고용 위험 탐색하기
* 🏔 연방준비제도이사회는 인플레이션을 막기 위해 **16개월 동안 기준금리를 11차례 인상**했지만, 최근 **목표 범위를 0.5%포인트 낮추기로 결정**했습니다.
* 📉 인플레이션은 약 **2.5%로 낮아졌지만**, 실업률이 증가하면서 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.
* 💼 미국 경제는 8월에 **142,000개의 일자리를 추가**하여 소폭의 반등세를 보였지만, 이는 **전년 대비 크게 감소한 수치**입니다.
* 📊 연준은 경기 부양을 위해 또는 인플레이션이 통제되고 있기 때문에 더 이상 금리를 높게 유지할 필요가 없기 때문에 **금리를 인하할 수 있습니다.**
* ⚖ 일부 연준 관리들은 인플레이션을 **2% 내외로 유지하기 위한 신중한 접근 방식**을 주장하는 반면, 다른 관리들은 경기 침체를 막기 위해 **보다 공격적인 금리 인하**를 제안하는 등 접근 방식에 대한 의견이 분분합니다.
* 🔄 연준이 인플레이션 통제와 고용 안정 사이의 균형을 맞추기 위해 최근 **50베이시스포인트 인하**를 단행한 것은 시급함을 시사합니다.
* 🗓 향후 금리 인하에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있으며, **향후 6개월이 경제 궤적과 연준의 전략을 결정하는 데 중요한 시기**가 될 것입니다.
* 🏆 파월이 연임에 성공한다면 **중앙은행 총재들 사이에서 입지를 굳힐 수** 있으며, 앞으로 몇 달이 경제와 임기 모두에 중요한 시기가 될 것입니다.

- [Narrator] The Federal Reserve has been climbing a mountain to combat stubborn inflation, so fast that it raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 16 months, then left it unchanged for more than a year, but now... - The committee decided to lower the target range for the Federal funds rate by a half percentage point. - Now is a make-or-break moment for the Fed. - [Narrator] While prices have cooled, an uptick in unemployment has reignited warnings of... - A recession. - A recession. - A recession. - And so the question now is: Can they stick the landing? - [Narrator] The Central Bank likes to keep inflation around 2%. That became a problem in the aftermath of the pandemic. Prices grew well above the 2% mark, eventually surpassing 7% in 2022. - [Nick] For the last two years, inflation was the big emergency.

that was occupying all of the Fed's attention. When the Fed was raising interest rates, they thought the economy was gonna have to slow down a lot more than it has. - I wish there were a completely painless way to restore price stability. There isn't, and this is the best we can do. - And what's happened is the economy's done pretty well and inflation's come down anyway. - [Narrator] By July, the Fed managed to bring inflation closer to 2.5%. And with prices easing, economists have turned their attention toward troubling signs in the labor market. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August, a slight rebound from the summer's slump in hiring, but a notable decline from a year ago. - The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable. - It's harder to stop a rise in the unemployment rate once demand for workers has cooled. I mean, what you're seeing right now is businesses saying,

We just don't need workers the way we did a couple of years ago. - [Narrator] The Fed can try to avoid further erosion by cutting the Federal funds rate or the rate that commercial banks pay when they borrow from each other. Those cuts, in turn, can lead to reduced rates on loans, meaning lower borrowing costs for consumers in the form of mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. They can also create an incentive for businesses to invest in expansion and hiring. - The Fed can cut interest rates for two reasons. One would be you're actually trying to stimulate the economy. You could also cut interest rates, including in the current situation, just because they don't need to be as high as they've been. You don't need to slow down the economy as much as you had over the past year or two when inflation was much higher. - [Narrator] Back to the mountain that the Fed spent the last two years climbing,

starting from historically low interest rates near zero in early 2022, the Central Bank eventually hiked to rates between 5.25% and 5.5% by July 2023, and stayed there. Now they're coming down the mountain, but nobody really knows where base camp is gonna be. How far down are you going to go and how fast should you get there? Fed officials largely agreed on the path forward since June 2022, but in recent months, two routes down to base camp have emerged. Earlier this year, you heard a lot of people saying, Look, this economy's doing all right. The economy's adding jobs. The unemployment rate is at a historically low level. Why rush this? You have a Fed governor, Miki Bowman, the Kansas City Fed President, Jeff Schmid, saying... I still believe quite strongly that we really need to trend this inflation number towards two.

It has to be sustainable. The danger is that if the labor market starts to weaken a little bit more, it could weaken a lot more, and then you're having to cut more aggressively. [Narrator] The other camp argues more aggressive rate cuts could preempt a serious decline in employment. Now that you have the labor market slowing down, these people are saying, Let's get ahead of this. Let's not have a recession that isn't necessary to finish the job on inflation. There've been a number of Fed officials, the Fed governor, Adriana Kugler, with the Chicago Fed President, Austin Gouldsby, who have been more insistent in saying... We've got to keep our eye on the employment side of the mandate now. This is what the path down to 2% inflation looks like. The danger, of course, of going too fast is: Well, what if some new shock hits the economy

and inflation kicks back up? That would be very destabilizing to have interest rates go back up for the Fed to say, Whoops, we cut too much. We need to start climbing this mountain again. - [Narrator] The Fed announced at its September meeting that it would cut rates by 50 basis points, starting on a faster path down the mountain. - We thought about what to do, and we concluded that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that's how we made our decision. - A 50-basis point interest rate cut signals more urgency here. They raised rates a lot and they raised rates in large increments on the way up, and so now that inflation seems like it's under control, but there are more risks of a bigger slowdown in the job market than they want, they're gonna take back some of those interest rate cuts more rapidly, too.

- But I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind. - And so there'll be big questions now around: Well, do you expect to do this again in November, and in December, and early next year? How fast do you think you're gonna take back the interest rate increases that you made in '22 and '23? - [Narrator] As the Fed charts its way forward, a lot remains at stake for the economy and Powell in the months ahead. - And it would put Powell on the Mount Rushmore of Central Bankers if he can stick the landing. Is the economy just going through a soft patch, or is it falling into the recession that has been long predicted by many economists? The next six months could be pivotal to determining which of those we're seeing unfold here. (pensive music)

The Fed Rate Cut Is Here: Why the Next Few Months Are So Crucial | WSJ

The Wall Street Journal takes you inside carefully selected stories and events in a visually captivating way so you can dig deeper into the news and insights that matter to you. 

The Wall Street Journal

인플레이션에 대한 연방 준비 은행의 투쟁

미국 연방준비제도이사회는 완고한 인플레이션에 맞서기 위해 16개월 동안 기준금리를 11차례 인상했지만 현재는 0.

5%로 낮아졌지만, 실업률 상승과 노동 시장의 불안한 징후로 인해 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

미국 경제는 8월에 142,000개의 일자리를 추가했지만, 전년 대비 전반적인 고용 감소와 노동 시장 상황의 냉각은 앞으로의 어려움을 예고합니다.

금리에 대한 연준의 변화하는 접근 방식

연방준비제도이사회는 소비자의 대출 비용을 낮추고 사업 확장 및 고용을 장려하기 위해 금리를 인하하고 있습니다.

이러한 금리 인하는 경제가 안정되고 고금리에 대한 필요성이 감소함에 따라 이루어지고 있습니다.

향후 금리 경로에 대한 불확실성이 존재하며, 금리 인하 속도에 대한 연준 관계자 간의 의견이 엇갈리고 있습니다.

금리 인하에 대한 연준의 접근 방식

노동 시장의 둔화로 인해 심각한 고용 감소를 막기 위해 공격적인 금리 인하의 필요성에 대한 논쟁이 벌어지고 있습니다.

일부 연준 관계자들은 2% 인플레이션으로 가는 길을 모색하면서 고용 측면에 초점을 맞춰야 한다고 주장하고 있습니다.

연준의 최근 금리 50bp 인하 결정은 경제 문제에 대한 보다 긴급한 대응을 시사하며, 인플레이션과 잠재적인 고용 시장 둔화 위험 사이의 균형을 맞추기 위한 조치입니다.

연준의 이번 조치는 금리 조정에 뒤처지지 않겠다는 의지로 보입니다.

향후 금리 인상 시기와 속도에 대한 주요 질문이 있습니다.

향후 6개월은 경제가 소프트 패치를 경험하고 있는지 아니면 장기적인 경기 침체로 향하고 있는지를 판단하는 데 매우 중요한 시기입니다.