연방준비제도 금리 인하: 경제적 영향 및 투자 전략

연방준비제도의 금리 인하는 주식과 비트코인의 잠재적 성장에 대한 신호로, 경제 불확실성에도 불구하고 투자자들에게 도움이 될 것입니다.

### 연방준비제도, 금리 인하: 경제 및 투자에 대한 시사점
* 📉 최근 연방준비제도이사회가 금리를 **0.5%포인트 인하하기로 결정**한 것은 겉보기에는 작은 변화지만 경제, 주식 시장, 개인 금융에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🔍 CME Fed Watch 도구를 활용하면 연준이 **2022년 6월 9%로 정점**을 찍은 인플레이션에 대응하기 위해 공격적으로 금리를 인상한 시기에 이어 **이번 금리 인하**가 이루어질 것으로 예상했습니다.
* 📊 과거 데이터에 따르면 연준이 금리를 인하했을 때 **S&P 500 지수는 1929년 이후 86%의 경우 플러스 수익률**을 기록했지만 경기 침체와 같은 경제 상황에 따라 결과가 달라질 수 있습니다.
* 📈 현재 **2024년 경기 침체 가능성은 8%**이지만, **2026년 이전에 경기 침체가 발생할 확률은 56%**에 달해 주식 시장 성과에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 예측이 나오고 있습니다.
* 💵 일반적으로 금리가 낮아지면 차입 비용이 감소하여 기업의 수익성이 향상되고, 이는 종종 **상당한 부채를 안고 있는 유틸리티 및 부동산**과 같은 업종에 도움이 됩니다.
* 💳 대출자에게는 **금리가 낮아지면 대출, 모기지, 신용카드 비용이 줄어들어 대출 접근성이 높아질 수 있다**는 점에서 긍정적인 소식입니다.
* 💰 그러나 저축자들은 저축 계좌의 이자율이 하락할 수 있으며, 과거 추세에 따르면 **연준의 금리 인하 이후 최대 0.5%까지 하락**하여 고수익 저축에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 📈 개인적으로 저는 **부동산, 비트코인, 주식, 현금 등으로 투자를 다각화**하면서 배당금을 계속 재투자하고 이러한 경제 변화에 대한 시장의 반응을 모니터링하고 있습니다.

So, the economy just flipped because the Federal Reserve just announced that they're cutting interest rates by half a percent. And I know that sounds like a really small number, but this will have a huge impact on the economy, the stock market, and your money. And if you're wondering how I was able to release this video so soon, considering the news just dropped, it's not because I'm a genius; it's because I took a peek at the CME Fed Watch tool, which has been predicting this for a couple of weeks now. And based on this rate cut, I want to help break down exactly what this means for savers, investors, the stock market, Bitcoin, and of course, magicians. I'm going to show you some really cool data about what happened to everyone when we did this in the past. Now, the first question you might have is why did the Federal Reserve do this. So, let's rewind for the last 2 and 1/2 years. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to fight inflation after the price increase which

went up to a 40-year high of 99.1% in June of 2022. That was all thanks to the money printer. Inflation at that level was comparable to the late 1970s and early 80s when the FED also raised their rates under their Papa Powell at the time who was chairman Paul Volcker back then. Paul Volcker raised their interest rates as high as 20% to slow inflation which caused a recession. But fast forward to today we don't have that same level of extreme inflation arguably. But the FED's rate hikes over the past 2 years have been the most aggressive since the 1970s Volcker era. And now the latest economic report shows inflation has gone down to 2.5%. Remember our goal is to get to 2%. We were at 9% at our peak now we're at 2.5%. And this cooling off inflation is one of the main reasons why the FED has decided it was safe to pivot and lower.

interest rates, specifically something called the federal funds rate, or the cost for banks to borrow money from each other, which directly affects our cost to borrow money as consumers. So, that's how we got here. But now, I want to share with you some really interesting data about what this means for the stock market, dividend stocks, Bitcoin, bonds, savers, and investors. And at the end of the video, I want to give you my personal opinion on how I'm investing. So, let's get into it. Hi, my name is Andre J. Hope you're doing well. Come for the finance and stay for the economy. So, first, let me start with the most exciting topic that everyone wants to know about, which is the stock market and what this means for investors. Now, in the past, when the FED lowered the interest rate, the stock market tended to do well. According to a study by Schwab, in the 12 months after a rate cut, the S&P 500, the stock market, has posted positive returns in 86% of cases since 1929. Data shows in the last 100 years.

that the FED pivoted to lower rates. It was a good thing for investors, not in all cases, but in 86% of cases. And the reason that it's not 100% is because if there is a recession, that changes things. If there's a recession, the stock market on average has lost 15% in the first 12 months. So, the follow-up question I had is, what are the odds of a recession? The good news is, in 2024, according to the stock market, it's only 8%. But the bad news is, it's predicting a 56% chance we could go into one before 2026. So, it's kind of a coin flip. But generally speaking, lower rates have helped boost stock prices because companies borrow money more cheaply, which helps them with their profits. But it's also important to remember that rate cuts are not a guarantee that the stock market will go up because timing and context matters too. For example, during the dot-com bust when the FED lowered rates, but the stock

market still went down 13% in the following 12 months. And again, when the FED started cutting rates in September 2007 in response to the financial crisis, the stock market also went down 17.6%. But for the most part, stocks do tend to go up when the FED lowers rates. And here's a few examples: when the FED cut rates in 2019, stocks went up over 15% in the months leading up to the blip that we all experienced around the world. And after the fed's emergency rate cut in 2020, the stock market went up by over 60%, and it reached an all-time high. Overall though, here's a little cheat sheet for you to reference in case you forget all of this nerdy information. This shows you data between 1976 to 2023 with International stocks, US Stocks, commodities, REITs, bonds, and gold. And as you can see, when the interest rates are high, that's when bonds typically do okay. But when interest rates go down, that's when the US Stock Market, as well as

REITs dominate the rest of the market. The takeaway is that if you like to invest your money into stocks, the effect of rate cuts is more complicated than rates go down, stocks go up. And certain stocks perform better than others after a rate cut, according to research from Schwab. Again, dividend-paying sectors like utilities and real estate tend to outperform the broader market in a low-rate environment. This is because these companies typically carry a big amount of debt, and lower rates reduce their borrowing costs, which makes them more profitable. So, if you're a dividend investor, which I personally am, this is really good news. And lower interest rates also have a positive effect on bond prices. And I like to think of bonds as a super stable, guaranteed return on my grandpa-like asset. And it makes bonds more expensive because as interest rates go down, bond prices go up. Now, I'm going to assume that most of us don't invest in the bond market unless we have a lot of money or we're protecting our wealth. So, that means you're probably not

very busy watching my YouTube channel, but if you are, you're probably a retired Finance nerd, so thank you so much for watching my boring videos. But next up, I want to show you what happens to bitcoin. So now that interest rates are going down, I'm super excited to see what stocks will do depending on who gets selected. And I've been tracking that information using today's sponsor, Mumu, an investment platform that provides pro-grade tools, data, and insights to investors in the US, Canada, and Australia. And using the search feature, I can look up either Harris or Trump, and it will show me a list of stocks that could potentially benefit if either one was elected. But Mumu can also help you find stocks influenced by the rate cut, making it super easy. And another standout feature is Mumu's Cash sweep, which right now offers a market-leading 8.1% APY on uninvested cash for the first 3 months, and then 5.1% after that, beating most mainstream brokerages. There's no minimum

deposit or balance requirements and your cash AC Crews interest automatically, making sure that you maximize your earnings without any extra effort, and that cash is always available for trading or withdrawal. And if you've ever been super frustrated like I have because you're not able to buy and sell stocks outside of normal trading hours, Mumu allows you to trade up to 16 hours a day, covering both pre-market and post-market sessions, so you can react to the news and the market changes in real time, and that means not missing out on opportunities. And finally, Mumu offers commission-free trading on US Stocks, ETFs, and options, with no account maintenance fees or contract fees for options. And the best part is that right now, Mumu is offering up to 15 free stocks for new users when you sign up using my link in the description below. And for my US audience, Mumu gives you the chance to earn up to 15 free stocks when you sign up, just deposit $1,000 and maintain an average asset balance for 60

days to unlock all 15 free full shares. Plus, if you transfer money to the app, you'll receive 1.5% cash back on your initial transfer of up to $300. For my Australian audience, Mumu is chess sponsored in Australia and offers Cash Plus, which is similar to the cash site. Don't forget to click the link below in the description for full details on the terms and conditions. Get your free stocks. Thank you, Mumu, for sponsoring this segment of the video. And now, let's get back to it. So, the other question I had is what happens to crypto and Bitcoin when interest rates go down. And I'm going to show you what I think will happen in the next 12 months by using gold as an example. Gold has already gone up significantly in 2024. It's up 25%. But let me show you something that's going to blow your mind. Because at the start of 2024, gold's market cap was about $1.13 trillion. Right now, it's roughly $17.5 trillion.

trillion. That's an increase of $3.7 trillion. Bitcoin's market cap, on the other hand, is about $1.1 trillion. And that means this year alone, gold went up 3.3 times the entire size of Bitcoin's market cap. That's how small Bitcoin still is. Now, for gold, that $3.7 trillion increase meant that gold went up from $2,000 an ounce at the start of 2024 to $2,500 an ounce right now in September 2024. A $500 increase, which is amazing. But here's the million-dollar question, though. Do you think Bitcoin could match the same price performance as gold? If you think it can, if you think that Bitcoin can still experience the same market cap increase, then Bitcoin could go up by a factor of 3.3x. That means roughly $558,000 a coin that it's at now to $174,000 a coin. But really, it depends on the Fed's monetary policy and what they'll do going forward. For example, when the Fed slashed rates to almost

zero in 2020. Bitcoin went up from around 7,000 a coin to over 60,000 by April 2021. But this also around the time, if you remember, when institutional money like MicroStrategy and Tesla started adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet because they wanted something other than those low-yielding bonds. That's why Bitcoin did so well. Bitcoin's price is linked to market liquidity, aka the availability of money, and lower interest rates mean the availability of money increases. And MicroStrategy, again, is loading up on more Bitcoin, even at these prices. So, for long-term holders and buyers, I think it's really good news. But now the question is, what does this mean for borrowers and savers? Now, the good news is if you want to borrow money, banks should now have a lower interest rate for loans, making it easier to buy homes and cars and to take out loans for businesses. But the bad news is if you've been enjoying those interest rates on your savings accounts or CDs, that's also about to change. The average interest rate on a high-yield savings account

reached 5.25% in August 2024, but with the FED cutting rates, banks have already lowered their savings rate. Historically, we have seen rates fall by a quarter percent to a half percent within a couple of weeks of a Fed cut. For example, during the last rate-cutting cycle in 2019, the national average savings rate dropped from 2.2% to just under 1% in less than 3 months. So, if you want to keep your money in a savings account, consider locking in that higher rate with a longer-term CD or look for those longer maturity dates. On the other hand, if you want to borrow money, this is really good news. The cost of a 30-year mortgage rate, which hit a 20-year high of about 8% last year, should start to go down. As of September 2024, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.2%, but we could see that drop by a quarter to a half percent in the coming months if the FED continues to cut rates.

example: after the Fed's last rate cut in 2019, mortgage rates dropped by around 75% so 34s over the course of the following 6 months. So, if you have a high-interest rate on your home, consider refinancing when the rates start to come down. But remember, this is also not just limited to mortgages. If you have a car loan, student loan, or even a credit card, rates should also start to come down. And credit cards, by the way, which are directly linked to the federal fund rates, saw an average rate drop from 177% in 2019 to around 14% by mid-2020 after those rate cuts. Either way, though, experts say you should never carry a balance, and instead, they say you should transfer to a 0% APR offer and aggressively pay down your high-interest rate debt. Now, if you made it this far into the video, here's my personal opinion and how I'm going to invest. When it comes to stocks, my gut feeling is that initially, the stock market will go

down, and that's because I think the rate cuts have already been priced in. So, I think it will be a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of thing. In the long term, I can't argue with the data that says over the next 12 months, the stock market goes up in 86% of cases. So, unless something happens outside of what we know about, then it should go up. And for Bitcoin, I think the next 12 months are going to be super interesting because Bitcoin tends to lag behind Gold's performance. So, first, gold goes up, and then Bitcoin goes up. Not in all cases, but I think Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to Gold's market cap. So, personally, here's how I've been investing. I've split my net worth into four different categories that I'm somewhat equally invested in: 25% in real estate, 25% in Bitcoin, 25% in stocks, and 25% in cash. I'm still buying the S&P 500 via the VTI ETF at $100 a day. I'm still

reinvesting all of my dividend income back into my dividend stocks, which is projected to grow to a sizable income in just a couple of decades automatically. I bought quite a bit of Bitcoin because, just like Michael Saylor, I think in the long term, Bitcoin will outperform virtually every other asset class, including especially gold. And finally, my rental property is also fully rented. It's going on 2 years now, and it's cash flowing at a 2.5% loan, and it helps lower my taxes. But I don't really plan on buying any more real estate for now. I'd love to hear how you're investing and what you think will happen to the market. And as always, I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day. Smash the like button, subscribe if you haven't already, don't forget to grab those free stocks. Links are down below. Go track them automatically with a spreadsheet link down below in my Patreon. Thank you so much for watching this video. I'd love to see you back here next week. I'll see

The Fed Just Changed Everything - What You Need To Know NOW!

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I'm like Harry Potter - if he was a financial minimalist, did card tricks and worried about money. Biz inquiries: andrei@majikh.com


Andrei Jikh

연방 준비 은행의 금리 인하와 그 영향

연방준비제도이사회는 경제, 주식 시장, 개인 재정에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있는 금리를 0.

5%로 낮아진 인플레이션에 대응하기 위한 공격적인 금리 인상 기간에 따른 것입니다.

역사적으로 금리 인하는 주식 시장에서 긍정적인 수익률로 이어졌으며, 금리 인하 후 12개월 이내에 S&P 500 지수는 86%에서 상승세를 기록했습니다.

미국 연방준비제도 금리 인하가 투자에 미치는 영향

경기 침체가 이러한 추세를 방해할 수 있지만, 연준의 금리 인하 정책은 86%의 사례에서 투자자에게 유익했습니다.

주식 시장은 2024년에 경기 침체가 발생할 확률을 8%, 2026년 이전에는 56%로 예측하고 있습니다.

금리 인하는 일반적으로 기업의 차입 비용을 줄여 주가를 상승시키지만, 금리 인하 후 주식 시장이 하락한 사례도 있는 등 그 관계는 복잡합니다.

금리가 비트코인과 주식에 미치는 영향

연사는 다가오는 선거와 금리 변동에 따른 주식 움직임을 추적하고 인사이트를 얻기 위해 투자 플랫폼 Mumu를 사용한다고 합니다.

무무는 미투자 현금, 16시간 거래일, 수수료 없는 거래에 대해 업계 최고 수준인 8.

1%의 연 수익률을 제공하며 신규 사용자에게는 최대 15개의 무료 주식을 제공하는 프로모션을 진행하고 있습니다.

또한 2024년 금의 시가총액이 크게 상승할 것으로 전망하며, 금리 하락에 따른 비트코인과 암호화폐의 잠재적 변화와 유사하게 설명합니다.

금의 급등이 비트코인에 미치는 영향

금의 시가총액은 2024년에 3조 7천억 달러 증가하여 비트코인의 1조 1천억 달러를 앞질렀습니다.

이러한 급등으로 금 가격은 온스당 2,000달러에서 2,500달러로 상승했습니다.

비트코인이 금의 성과를 따라간다면 코인당 174,000달러까지 상승할 수 있지만, 이는 연준의 통화 정책과 시장 유동성에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

연방 금리 인하가 부채 및 투자에 미치는 영향

2019년 연방 금리 인하로 모기지 금리와 신용카드를 포함한 기타 대출 금리가 크게 하락했습니다.

전문가들은 고금리 부채를 재융자하고 연이자율 0%로 전환할 것을 권장합니다.

발표자의 투자 전략은 부동산, 비트코인, 주식, 현금에 걸쳐 순자산을 균등하게 분산하는 것입니다.

이 발표자는 수십 년 동안 상당한 성장을 기대하며 모든 배당 수익을 배당주에 재투자하고 있습니다.

비트코인이 금을 포함한 다른 자산보다 더 나은 성과를 낼 것으로 믿고 비트코인에 투자했습니다.

발표자의 임대 부동산은 전액 임대 중이며 2.

5%의 대출로 현금 흐름을 유지하고 있으며 당분간 부동산을 더 구매할 계획이 없습니다.