연방준비제도의 50 베이시스 포인트 인하: 시장 반응과 시사점

연방준비제도의 예상치 못한 50bp 금리 인하는 안정적인 경제에도 불구하고 새로운 완화 사이클을 예고하는 신호입니다.

### 연방 준비 은행의 50 베이시스 포인트 인하: 시장 반응과 경제 전망
* 📉 9월 18일 연방준비제도이사회는 **25bp 인하라는 예상과 달리 50bp 인하**로 시장을 놀라게 했고, 다우지수는 **0.25%**, S&P 500지수는 **0.29%**, 나스닥지수는 **0.31% 하락**하는 등 시장의 반응은 미온적이었습니다.
* 🏦 이는 제롬 파월 의장이 경제의 안정적인 상태를 강조하면서 **인플레이션을 2% 내외로 회복시킬 수 있다는 자신감**을 표명하면서 1년 넘게 5.2%에서 5.5% 사이의 금리를 유지한 후 **완화 사이클의 시작**을 알린 것입니다.
* 📊 연준의 점도표는 **올해 두 차례 25bp 추가 인하**와 **2025년 네 차례 추가 인하 가능성**을 시사하고 있지만, 시장은 보다 공격적인 완화 정책을 예상하고 있었습니다.
* 🏠 최근 주택 데이터에 따르면 **건설 착공 건수는 9.6%, 허가 건수는 4.6% 증가**하여 주택 시장이 반등하고 있으며, 웰스파고는 **모기지 금리 하락**으로 주택 시장이 계속 개선될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
* 💵 발표 이후 골드만 삭스는 **3분기 GDP 추정치를 2.8%에서 3%로 상향 조정**하면서 경제가 과열될 수 있음을 시사하고 **50 베이시스 포인트 인하 필요성에 의문**을 제기했습니다.
* 📈 금리 인하에도 불구하고 국채 금리는 상승했고 시장은 하락세로 마감했는데, 파월 의장은 **경제가 근본적으로 건전**하며 금리 인하는 **경기 침체가 임박했다는 신호가 아니**라고 강조했습니다.
* 🔍 시장의 엇갈린 반응은 향후 금리 인하에 대한 혼란을 반영하는 것으로, 파월 의장은 **50bp 인하가 시행되었지만 향후 기준금리 인하에 대한 새로운 표준 속도**는 아니라고 설명했습니다.
* 💬 분석가들은 연준이 고용과 인플레이션 목표의 균형을 유지하는 데 전념하면서 경제의 연착륙에 중점을 두고 **점진적으로 금리 인하에 접근**할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

A magazine of elegance that fills everyday life, Arte. Hello, I am Kim Hyun-seok, the Wall Street correspondent for the Korean Economic Daily. Today is September 18th, the FM era. Yes, it’s Wednesday, and I will bring you the stock market news. Today, a big cut was made. I actually expected a 25 basis point cut, but it turned out to be a 50 basis point cut. However, the market reaction was rather lukewarm and not very good. The Dow Jones index fell by 0.25%, the S&P 500 index by 0.29%, and the Nasdaq by 0.31%. Market interest rates also rose. I will explain the reasons for this in more detail. The U.S. central bank has begun a easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut. They started raising interest rates in March 2022 and have maintained the rate between 5.2% and 5.5% since last July, keeping it stable for over a year, but finally, they have started the easing cycle.

Nick Timiraos, a journalist often referred to as the unofficial spokesperson for the Fed, has once again proven his predictions correct. I was mistaken; I misread the situation. Jerome Powell stated that he believes inflation will drop to around 2%. He seemed aware that significant cuts have only occurred during past crises, noting that the U.S. economy is in good shape, and today’s decision was designed to maintain that condition. He emphasized that the current state is neither good nor bad. The dot plot indicated the possibility of two 25 basis point cuts this year and four additional cuts in 2025. Powell also suggested that, depending on economic data, the door remains open for an additional 50 basis point cut. Although he did not explicitly state that this would happen, the overall tone of the interest rates, the monetary policy statement, and the dot plot, as well as Powell’s press conference, were all generally dovish. However, Treasury yields rose, and stock prices were slightly weaker.

The decline was limited. This person is a significant figure, as they mentioned that the strong labor market will support whatever is necessary. This refers to the remarks made at Jackson Hole. Until this morning, there was confusion about whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would lower rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, with the results to be announced at 2 PM. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, stated that a 25 basis point cut is appropriate when looking at the overall economy, and that it doesn't make much difference in the long run. Jamie Dimon, the chairman of JPMorgan, also argued that whether rates are raised or lowered by 25 or 50 basis points is not that important; what matters is the real economy beneath it. James Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said in a CNBC interview that a 50 basis point cut is exaggerated and that the economy looks quite good. According to a Deutsche Bank survey, 62% anticipated a 25 basis point cut. The housing data for August was released this morning.

The number of construction starts and permits was better than expected. Construction starts increased by 9.6% in just one month, and the number of permits also rose by 4.6% to 4.9%. This is a rebound, as the situation had been quite poor for a while. Wells Fargo has analyzed that the future housing market outlook appears bright due to significant willingness for interest rate easing and lower mortgage rates. However, the already high interest rates and a weakened labor market could significantly limit the scope of recovery. Indeed, we have seen a continuous decline here. It has come down quite a bit; even if it rises, it may not be that good. The housing market can still be seen as slightly improving from a state of stagnation. After the housing data was released, Goldman Sachs raised its third-quarter GDP estimate from 2.8% to 3%. This aligns with the current estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now. A 3% growth does not support a 50 basis point cut.

In some ways, the economy may be overheated at 3%. There is no reason to lower interest rates by 50 basis points. Peter Berezin, a strategist at BC Research, stated that the housing data is undoubtedly solid, thanks to the decline in mortgage rates. Considering yesterday's retail sales and industrial production figures, he mentioned that the Fed is likely to lower rates by 25 basis points. As a result, throughout the morning, the bond market in New York showed a steady increase of about 3 to 4 basis points in interest rates. If interest rates were to drop significantly, it would be expected that these rates would also fall accordingly. In the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch market, the bets on a 50 basis point cut were hovering around the mid-60% range, specifically 65% to 63%. However, as it approached 2 PM, around 1:40 to 1:50 PM, this dropped to about 55%. It fluctuated during that time. Just before the announcement, the S&P 500 was up by 0.03%.

The interest rate was lowered to 0.03%, which means it almost returned to zero. The yield on government bonds rose by about 6 basis points, reaching 3.66%. Then, at 5 PM, the FOMC's decision was announced. The first key interest rate was lowered by 50 basis points. The key interest rate was reduced to 4.75% to 5%, effectively transitioning to a more accommodative stance. The decision was not unanimous; one of the Fed's governors, who advocated for a 25 basis point cut, voted against it, resulting in a decision of 11 to 1 among the 12 FOMC members. This was the first dissent since June 2022, and it was also the first time a Fed governor, rather than a regional bank president, voted against the chair since September 2005. So, this is something that hasn't happened in nearly 20 years. The second point is the dot plot economic outlook. The dot plot has significantly decreased today, and as you can see, this is the projection.

Today, it has dropped quite a bit, right? No, this is 5%, correct? Currently, there are people who see it as 4.625 and others who see it as 4.375, and they are evenly matched. So, those who see it as 4.5 or higher, how many people are there? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine—there are 19 members in total. Out of these, nine people have predicted three rate cuts this year, and ten people have predicted four rate cuts. This is what has been recorded. The median value will come out next, but there is a lot of variance for next year and the year after, so we really don’t know yet. The median value from the dot plot shows 4.375% by the end of this year and 3.375% by the end of next year. This means an additional 50 basis points will be cut by the end of this year, totaling a 100 basis point cut this year and an additional 100 basis points next year.

However, this year, the predictions for interest rate cuts were very close. Among the 19 members of the Federal Reserve's committee, 9 predicted a cut of less than 75 basis points, while 10 suggested a cut of more than 100 basis points. By just one vote, the median forecast shifted to an expected cut. The long-term neutral interest rate was set at 2.8%. It had been at 2.7% in June and has increased slightly since then. The long-term neutral rate is essentially where the final interest rate should land in the long run. There were some changes, such as the GDP forecast being slightly lowered from 2.1% to 2.0%, and the unemployment rate forecast increasing from 4.0% in June to 4.4% in July. This adjustment reflects the current unemployment rate, which has risen to 4.2%, so they have set it a bit higher. Additionally, the core PCE inflation rate is important; the dot plot from last June indicated 2.8% for the end of this year, but it has already been adjusted to 2.6%.

The median value of the viscosity representation has significantly dropped from 5.1 to 4.4, and from 4.1 to 3.4. This change occurred in just three months, so how can the market adjust when even the Fed members are experiencing such fluctuations? The Fed members are really being unreasonable. The unemployment rate forecast has increased from 4.0 to 4.4 for 2024, while inflation has decreased from 2.8 to 2.6. The third point is the monetary policy statement, which expressed confidence that inflation will decrease and a commitment to supporting employment. A newly revealed key sentence is that the committee has gained more confidence that inflation can remain at 2%. It also noted that the risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are roughly balanced. In other words, regarding inflation...

I have gained strong confidence in this, and that's why we lowered the interest rates. We are balancing the risks to some extent, but this does not mean we will make drastic adjustments going forward. In addition to returning inflation to the 2% target, we have added a commitment to strongly support maximum employment. This means we will pay more attention to employment in the future. This is the revised content of the statement. Then, the press conference with Chair Powell began. He emphasized several times that the economy is doing well. When we lowered the rates by 50 basis points, the market might have thought, Is the Fed seeing something strange? Do they think the economy is falling apart? But he repeatedly stated that the economy is doing fine. This was in the early part of the session, and at that time, the Russell 2000 was up more than 2%. Let's look at the reason for choosing the 50 basis point cut; this was the question we received the most.

After the July FOMC meeting, a lot of data came in. We reviewed all that data and made appropriate decisions. The Beige Book was not good, and we considered that as well. When this question came up, we ended up discussing that. The July FOMC meeting took place on July 31, and the July employment report was released on August 2. It came out quite poorly, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and new jobs at only 110,000. If we had known that, we might have lowered interest rates in July. Nick Timiraos wrote an article about this. He stated that based on the July employment report, we should have lowered rates. So, if we were going to lower rates in September anyway, we should have combined it and lowered it by 50 basis points, as he mentioned in his article.

He mentioned that it seems Paul is talking to the Timihouse reporter, saying something like he could lower it by about 50 basis points. He was repeating almost exactly what was written in the article. In our journalistic community, we refer to information sources as straws, as if they are being sucked dry. So, it seems Paul is indeed a straw. He also explained that he believes inflation will drop to about 2%. He stated that the mission in the war against inflation has ended, but he does not prefer to declare victory. If inflation rises again, it will create chaos. If they lower it by 50 basis points, the market might start worrying about the economy. The last three times the Fed lowered rates by more than 25 basis points were in 2001, 2007, and 2020. In 2001, it was the dot-com bubble collapse; in 2007, it was the global financial crisis; and in 2020, it was the pandemic. This suggests that a crisis is looming.

At that time, we were in a recession. Regarding this, Powell emphasized several times that the U.S. economy is fundamentally okay. He stated that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that today's adjustments are designed to maintain that state. So, it's not that things are getting worse; rather, the aim is to ensure that the current favorable situation is sustained. Powell also mentioned that while there are increasing downward risks to employment, the unemployment rate at 4.2% is very healthy, partly due to an increase in immigrant inflow. He explained that it's not due to a significant rise in layoffs, but rather an increase in labor demand and labor supply. Traditionally, the Fed has lowered rates several times after a 50 basis point cut; will it be the same this time? Powell indicated that there will definitely be a policy adjustment in the future, meaning we are now beginning a cycle of rate cuts, so interest rates will continue to be adjusted.

He mentioned that there shouldn't be anyone saying that a 50 basis point cut is the new pace, even though he acknowledged it. In other words, he said that reducing the normal rate to 50 should not be interpreted as a continuous reduction of 50 basis points. He emphasized that he would move as quickly or slowly as he thinks is appropriate based on the data, and that there is no need to rush when looking at the dot plot. According to the dot plot, we've already cut 100 basis points this year, and with two meetings left, there are discussions about further cuts. Additionally, he pointed out that the yield curve has lagged behind; as bond yields have significantly decreased, the yield curve has also dropped. However, since the benchmark interest rate is still high, it has fallen behind. This means that the market perceives the Fed to be lagging behind its policy much more than expected.

The economy can deteriorate if we lose something. The market thinks that interest rates should be here, but they are either much higher or much lower, which can lead to high inflation or a sharp decline in growth. When asked about this, I don't think they feel they have fallen behind on the curve. They emphasized that today's 50 basis point cut should be seen as a strong indication that they will not fall behind. Overall, it sounded like they were saying not to expect continued 52 basis point cuts. Regarding the final interest rate and neutral rate, it seems unlikely that we will return to the era when several trillion dollars of government bonds were trading at negative rates. At that time, the benchmark interest rate was very low. Yes, it seems that the neutral rate has risen significantly compared to before the pandemic in the 2010s, but they said they do not know what that level is.

Previously, the neutral interest rate was estimated at 2.5%. However, the Fed members have continued to raise it, and today it was presented at 2.8%. There has been a lot of chaos in the political arena regarding whether this decision was influenced by politics. There are claims that a 50 basis point increase is a declaration of support for the Democrats, causing quite a stir. In response, they firmly stated that they do not engage in such actions. Regarding quantitative tightening, they mentioned that they do not consider stopping QT solely because of the interest rate. They explained that both can occur simultaneously; in a sense, both are normalization. The balance sheet assets are too high, and reducing them is also a form of normalization, while lowering interest rates is another aspect of normalization. Powell expressed that he does not believe a recession is imminent and does not foresee a recession occurring in the future, as he stated in the press conference.

I have concluded my analysis. Overall, it was quite dovish, and there weren't any particularly hawkish comments that stood out. Despite the big cut decision, the market reaction was a bit strange. Initially, stocks rose and bond yields seemed to drop slightly, but as the press conference progressed, suddenly interest rates started to rise again while stocks fluctuated. In the end, the market closed in a downward trend. Even with the big cut decision, interest rates maintained an upward trend, especially after Powell mentioned that the neutral interest rate is significantly high, which further increased the rise. Ultimately, around 4:40 PM, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 6.9 basis points, the 2-year yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 3.63%. Today’s performance of the 10-year bond showed that it seemed to rise at 2 PM, then came down, and continued to decline afterward. The press conference had quite an impact.

It continued to rise. The dollar also showed strength. The dollar typically follows monetary policy, so when monetary policy shifts to easing, it means more dollars will be released. As a result, the dollar has shown weakness, but today it rose slightly, decreasing by 50. The dollar index is at 0.06%. While it's not a significant increase, I thought it would drop more today, but it rose back to 100.95. Gold prices showed a downward trend. When interest rates decrease, gold prices, which do not yield interest, should increase because their relative value rises. However, the opposite happened; it fell by 0.32%, settling at around $1,284. Of course, it has risen significantly over time. Now, regarding the S&P 500 index, it really fluctuated after the announcement, going up and down multiple times before finally closing here. It showed an upward trend until the middle of the press conference.

The major indices of the New York stock market ultimately fell. The Dow decreased by 0.25%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.29%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.31%. The Russell 2000 index, which focuses on small-cap stocks, was the only one that rose, gaining 0.39%. As I showed you earlier, at one point, it had risen over 2%. What is the reason for this? 

First, it seems unlikely that an additional 50 basis point cut will occur. The market had anticipated a 50 basis point cut, expecting a neutral interest rate of around 3%. It was believed that the Fed would quickly move in that direction, aggressively lowering rates. However, listening to Powell's remarks, it seems he is saying that while there was a 50 basis point cut this time, we shouldn't expect more cuts. This is different from what the market expected, leading to confusion about why the rates should be lowered so aggressively. Originally, the market expected a total of 110 to 120 basis points this year and up to 250 basis points by the end of next year.

Now, looking a bit further, it seems that by the end of this year, a 100 basis point cut is expected, which is slightly more than anticipated. It is similar to the expectations, but by the end of next year, a 200 basis point cut is anticipated. So, there seems to be some confusion about what this means. David Zervos, a strategist at Jefferies, suggests that they might be considering a proactive cut of 50 basis points, but Powell has indicated that there is no rush. The messaging seems mixed, and it doesn’t appear that they will continue to cut by 50 basis points. TD Bank pointed out that according to the dot plot, an additional cut of only 50 basis points is expected this year. While a 50 basis point cut could happen all at once in November, they noted that subsequent meetings might see cuts of 25 basis points each, indicating a slower pace. Wells Fargo has started the easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut, but they signaled that they might not implement further cuts in the upcoming meetings. According to the dot plot, additional easing is evenly distributed across the remaining two meetings this year, with the current dot plot showing nine people at 75 basis points or below, and then...

There is a division of over 100 basis points among ten people. This means that it is not a drastic reduction but rather a gradual decrease. Next year, it suggests that there will be additional easing at a slower pace. This implies that next year, for every 100 basis points, rather than reducing at every meeting, there will be a reduction once every two meetings. This is necessary to continue until the end of next year. In fact, the economic data is not so bad as to warrant a continuous reduction of 50 basis points. Looking at the employment reports from July and August, the average job creation over the last three months has been around 160,000, which still indicates a growth trend. Average hourly wages have increased, and if there is an oversupply of labor and a shortage of labor demand, wages would not rise significantly. The unemployment rate also fell slightly in August to 4.3, which is the lowest since July.

Retail sales increased by 1.1% in July and by 0.1% in August. The GDP growth for the second quarter was 3.1%, and the third quarter is expected to see a growth of 3%. 

Secondly, the Fed members indicated in their dot plot that they expect to lower rates by 3.4% by the end of next year, which falls short of market expectations. A bond market official noted that a 50 basis point cut is somewhat priced in, so it was not surprising today. However, after the press conference, it became clear that the exact path of future interest rates remains uncertain. Once the blackout period ends, which will be from Friday to Sunday, it will be necessary to hear from other Fed officials.

Thirdly, some have suggested that Chair Powell's statement about the neutral interest rate being significantly high is influencing long-term interest rates.

There were pointed out influences, and a market official mentioned that the ongoing slight upward adjustment of long-term interest rates is somewhat concerning. Additionally, there is a reaction that the FMC campaign has become a significant event. Some investors, having already made sufficient profits that the market had anticipated, have realized their gains. Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital, stated that if there had been a 25 basis point cut, it would have been a much larger reduction. She argued that since it was a 50 basis point cut, the current reaction is acceptable. Long-term yields have already decreased significantly compared to the final interest rate, indicating a risk of retreat. In the case of the dollar, Powell's remarks opposing an additional 50 basis point cut showed strong resistance, but it is argued that this will not change the prevailing weakness.

We need to observe whether the reactions remain indifferent. Typically, it takes about a day or two to sort out the reactions to the FMC press conference. The consensus regarding Charles's cash bond strategy is that on the day of the FMC announcement, market movements largely reflect existing positions and their adjustments. How positions are taken beforehand and how they are adjusted on that day will determine the market movements. Therefore, today's market movements do not fully represent everything from yesterday. We need to wait for more data. Fundamentally, a proactive shift in monetary policy reduces the probability of a recession, which is a positive sign for the market. The key question is not how much interest rates will be lowered this time, but whether a soft landing will occur in the future, as this is crucial for the stock market.

It's important to note that according to Bank of America, when a recession occurs within six months after the first rate hike, the S&P 500 index has only risen 20% over 100 trading days. However, if a recession does not occur, it has seen a 100% increase, with an average return of 88%. You can see that this is the appearance of the stock index over 12 months when there is no recession, and this shows the decline when there is a recession after the rate hike. Morgan Stanley has indicated that this rate cut shows a willingness to significantly lower rates if necessary in the future. They emphasized and demonstrated that they are willing to take bigger actions depending on the incoming data and the evolution of risks from the FOMC's recent rate decision. We expect two additional 25 basis point cuts this year and four more 25 basis point cuts in the first half of next year. In other words, there will be a continued proactive approach to rate cuts, with one cut expected each quarter next year.

It's not that, but I plan to concentrate my turn in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, the monetary policy is assessed to be in a good position to handle the risks and uncertainties faced while pursuing the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Lindsay Rosner, head of Goldman's asset management, stated that the Fed has provided what the market wanted. The market is still slightly ahead of the Fed and expects an additional 75 basis points cut this year. The unemployment rate and the PC estimate are very close to the current levels, so it may be easier for them to cut more than what is indicated on the dot plot. In other words, they have set the unemployment rate at exactly 4.4, but if it goes back to 4.4 or 4.5, it would mean further action. Prince's strategist, who specializes in deepening strategies, believes that despite doubts about the need for aggressive rate cuts, the market has no choice but to welcome today's actions and will continue to do so in the coming months. We are aiming for a soft landing.

I am watching the Fed, which is ready to take historic action to achieve its goals. There is a saying that there is no recession. Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Christopher Waller, mentioned that Paul has implemented proactive management of the committee, as promised in Jackson Hole, and many, including the hawkish Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, supported a 50 basis point cut. He stated that this decision was not easy and demonstrated that the Fed would act decisively when needed. This is overall assessed as a risk-friendly measure. This big cut will increase the possibility of a soft landing and positively impact risk assets, especially small-cap stocks, cyclical stocks, commodities, and emerging market currencies. Jas Si-eun stated that the Fed's cut was a strong signal that the rate or cycle is being eased to revive the labor market. Treasury yields have already discounted the rate cut, and the market reaction has been moderate, but...

We continue to expect a decline in yields, and Peter Berezin, a strategist at BC Research, had anticipated a 25 basis point cut, but a 50 basis point cut was implemented. With an additional 50 basis point cut scheduled for the end of the year, he mentioned that they would lower the probability of a recession over the next six months. Goldman Sachs predicted that as interest rate cuts begin, mid-cap stocks will shine even more. This was also mentioned by Yoon Jae-sung about two months ago, where he said to watch mid-cap stocks. The reason is that many small-cap stocks are not making much money, and if the economy worsens, they could decline significantly. However, mid-cap stocks are profitable and haven't risen much yet, so they are in a good position. Today, Goldman Sachs reiterated that historically, mid-cap stocks outperform large and small-cap stocks in terms of returns once interest rate cuts begin.

The SNP 400 index, which focuses on mid-cap stocks, is indeed a mid-cap index. Historically, during the first rate cut of the easing cycle, the SNP 400 index rose by an average of 13% over the following year. This is higher than the S&P 500's 10% and Russell 2000's 5%. Mid-cap companies tend to have fewer unprofitable businesses, and their balance sheets are strong. Currently, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 15 times, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratio of 30 times. I will take your questions now. U.S. stocks, wow, it seems really amazing. Wow, we have Wall Street experts here: JJ Yellow, Yoo Sung-jin, Seren, Ola, Michael Kim. Our members, OJJ and Woodland Texas, as well as Yoo Sung-jun, Route 66, YHD, and Sang-mi Bang, are all here. It's great to see everyone. Our producer, Seo Ji-won, has asked for questions, so please go ahead and ask.

I will receive it. Ah, today the technology sector was not doing well, right? Yes, the rotation has moved to another area, but we need to keep an eye on it. From my perspective, the market movements today didn't feel particularly aligned with Powell's explanation. Because of that, there were continuous questions about why they lowered it by 50. Those questions did come up, but ultimately, as Nick Timiraos wrote, we missed something in July, and that was a mistake. So this time, they took action. Because they took action, they will likely aim for 255 in the future. It seems they were indirectly saying that we made a mistake in July. Yes, it feels like that. Therefore, the market movements today were also a bit strange. Of course, the market movements tend to be unusual every time during the FMC.

It's a bit strange. Originally, it was really because of the position that day. We should take a look tomorrow; I think we can really understand the market by then. Turtle, today the TRT went down, but if the interest rate was lowered by 50 basis points, shouldn't the TRT go up? How do you view the future movements of the TRT? TLT is an ETF that invests in government bonds for over 20 years. However, the interest rates went up today. That's why this happened. As I mentioned earlier, the 10-year bond yield is not only the current interest rate but also how the interest rate indicators will move towards the final rate, which is important. However, the market's expectations were a bit conservative, and since the 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds have dropped significantly, there was a slight reaction today. But if the Fed continues to lower interest rates, this too...

It seems like it might drop a little more. Yes, but I don't think it will maintain at 3.7. It seems like it will drop a bit more, but we've already seen significant declines during this time. That’s a fact. So, since all assets have already reflected these expectations quite a bit, many are either up or in such situations. Therefore, at times like today, profit-taking can happen. I asked whether the stock price would break through seasonality and rise, and the best scenario has arrived, in my opinion. I think the Fed has done as much as it can. It couldn’t really be better than this. I had expected 100 basis points this year, 75 basis points this year, and 100 basis points next year, but we did get 100 basis points this year, which is quite slight.

The decision was made with just a one or two-person difference, right? If even one person had moved in this direction, the comments from the Fed would have been different. Overall, I think the Fed has done enough. If the economy does not continue to fall into a recession but instead slows down slightly, hits the bottom, and starts to rise again, that would be the best scenario. In fact, there isn't a better scenario than that. A better scenario in an election would be if the Senate and House were split, which would make it harder to implement things like tariff increases or tax cuts, or even tax hikes. That would be preferable. However, there is definitely an election coming up; this is not the end of it. Yes, politics still affects the economy, and that also needs to be considered. From the Fed's perspective, I feel that they have done what they could during the FOMC meeting.

The stock market is anticipating a recession, but it seems that the 10-year bond yields are not affected at all. The stock market is not expecting a recession at all. Not at all. This has been explained sufficiently, and the market has accepted it. There is a concern that the economy might not actually be in a recession, but don't worry; the U.S. economy is strong. This has been mentioned several times, and the market is well aware of it. It has accepted this, and the current data reflects that. Retail sales data from yesterday and housing data today all indicate this. As I mentioned earlier, BC Research has been continuously discussing a recession, but they also stated today that they would lower the probability of a recession. The market has accepted this. Today, the stock market is reacting as if a recession is imminent, but if the Fed knows something we don't, then there is something going on in the world.

This is not a disaster at all. As I mentioned during the Charles competition, it seems there was some profit-taking today with a slight shift in positions. Or perhaps, with interest rates decreasing, people are thinking about selling tech stocks and buying small-cap, mid-cap, cyclical, or value stocks. What happens then? In the case of tech stocks, their market share is so large that even a small sell-off can cause the market index to drop. Yes, that's how it works. So, looking at the overall market today, even though tech stocks fell significantly, there were also quite a few stocks that rose. This could be why the index reacted the way it did today. Anyway, let’s check again tomorrow. Usually, the market movements on FMC days are often difficult to understand; that has always been the case.

When you record and check the Federal Reserve's dot plot, it seems that it has only appeared as predicted twice. I wonder why they emphasize the dot plot with such a low probability. It feels like we are just checking the current mindset of the Federal Reserve. Powell also says that each individual is expressing their own views. That's correct. However, if you could accurately predict what will happen a year from now, that would be truly divine. Where can we find such a person? As I have repeatedly mentioned, the economy is a living organism. It continues to respond in various ways; if this happens, then that will happen, and the economy can move in unexpected directions. That's why we are seeing significant interest rate cuts. If a recession is predetermined, then lowering interest rates will only lead us into that recession. That's not the case. Therefore, while we can make predictions, they cannot always be correct. Instead,

예상도 안 하고 그냥 멍하게 있는 것보다는 그렇게 하는 게 훨씬 더 맞습니다. 이게 아무래도 다 인터랙션이 사람들도 그런 거죠. 친구하고, 부부도 그렇고, 남자친구, 여자친구도 그렇고요. 인터랙션이 있잖아요. 얘는 맨날 똑같은 애야 그러면 할 필요가 없죠. 이런 예의가. 그런데 이렇게 나오면 이렇게 반응이 오고, 이렇게 반응이 오면 또 이렇게 하고, 그러면서 관계가 달라지고 바뀌는 거죠. 똑같습니다. 경제도 살아 있기 때문에 그래요. 경제라는 게. 찰스 정님, 이제 금리나 사이클로 들어가는 건 확실하다면 30년 스트립 ETF 채권은 변동성이 크지만 우상향하지 않을까요? 이게 그러니까 30년, 20년, 10년 이런 겁니다. 제가 채권에 대해 좀 잘 아시는 분에게 물어봤어요. 10년물 금리는 어떻게 움직이냐?라고 했더니 패드가.

When interest rates are continuously lowered, it is said that long-term rates will also follow suit. Long-term rates decline, and of course, short-term rates will drop even further. However, despite the general downward trend of long-term rates, if the Fed unexpectedly pauses or slows down its actions, or if there are other irregularities, and if there is an increase in bond issuance, we will inevitably have to issue more long-term government bonds next year due to this year's presidential election. Yellen is currently focusing on short-term bonds, issuing less, but there is concern about whether more long-term bonds will be issued. This situation regarding the supply and demand for long-term bonds is keeping long-term interest rates relatively high. If supply increases significantly in the future, interest rates could rise. However, the extent of this decline is yet to be determined.

Once it starts to show at the end, from that point on, it moves according to the fundamentals of long-term bonds. What are the fundamentals of long-term bonds? Inflation and growth rates, things like that are the fundamentals of long-term bonds. There are also technical factors related to supply and demand. Considering those three aspects, the current supply and demand situation is not good. If interest rates are drastically lowered now, there is a possibility that inflation could rise again. Growth would improve, but I think it could also decline. That may have had some impact on today's market interest rates. Overall, it seems that if we continue to drastically lower interest rates, we will head in that direction. It might be because you were on your way to work, but I wonder why, even though I announced the continuous rate, bond-related stocks plummeted. That relates to what I just mentioned.

It is the same. The spread for the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has turned positive, but the 3-month and 12-month bonds are still in the negative. Are there any opinions from Wall Street experts on this? As I mentioned earlier, the logic varies slightly for each maturity. Of course, when rates go down, they tend to go down suddenly across the board, but for 3-month and 6-month bonds, they are generally pulled down together. However, for 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds, there are different logics at play. Factors such as supply and demand, growth rates, and inflation influence these, so they move somewhat independently. Therefore, it's not just about looking at today's situation and asking why it is like this; we need to observe the overall direction. The trend is showing improvement.

It's a direction we are heading in, so that’s fine. Yes, today, from what I see, it can't all be normal. There can be abnormalities, but moving toward normalcy is acceptable; that makes sense. However, the issue arises when everything seems to be moving toward normal, yet one part keeps moving in an abnormal direction. That’s the problem we face. From my perspective, it appears that everything is in a state of normalization. The Fed is also normalizing interest rates; high rates are being adjusted downwards, and they are reducing the extensive quantitative easing. In this way, the bond market is also seeing the Fed somewhat withdrawing its influence. When they had been manipulating things and are now pulling back, normalizing means that the Fed is reducing its impact. Therefore, a system may be established where bonds find their true prices. Today, anyway, the majority of questions reflect confusion about this situation. I also...

I understand less, but I have a few explanations that could be part of the answer. You should take a look at tomorrow's market movements or observe until Friday. I'll take one last question. William, who would you consider a noteworthy journalist like Nick Timiraos? In my opinion, among the journalists who cover the Fed, there is Colby Lewis from the Financial Times. She is doing well. Also, there's Steve Liesman from CNBC. Of course, Steve Liesman doesn't seem like someone who is simply informed by others, but rather, when someone writes an article as the official spokesperson for the Fed Whisperer, you can tell that Nick Timiraos is usually the one interpreting what the Fed is thinking, and Colby Lewis from the Financial Times is somewhat following that.

그리고 전반적으로 잘 보는 사람들은 블룸버그의 마이클 맥기 기자와 CNBC의 스티브 리스먼이 눈에 자주 띄더라고요. 여러분의 성공적인 투자 항상 기원합니다.

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] Fed '빅컷'에도 시장 실망했다? 네 가지 이유

한경 특파원들이 전하는 잠들지 않는 투자 뉴스

한경 글로벌마켓

미국 연방 준비 은행의 50 베이시스 포인트 금리 인하

미국 연방준비제도이사회가 예기치 않게 금리를 50bp 인하하면서 1년 넘게 이어진 완화 사이클이 시작되었습니다.

주요 지수는 하락하고 국채 수익률은 상승하는 등 시장의 반응은 미온적이었습니다.

연준의 점도표는 올해 두 차례 추가 인하와 2025년 네 차례 추가 인하 가능성을 시사했고, 주택 시장이 개선 조짐을 보이면서 골드만삭스의 3분기 GDP 추정치가 상향 조정되었습니다.

연방 준비 은행의 금리 인하와 경제 전망

연방준비제도 위원회는 금리 전망에 대해 의견이 고르게 나뉘었으며, 9명의 위원은 올해 세 차례, 10명의 위원은 네 차례 인하를 예상했습니다.

375%로 매년 총 100베이시스포인트씩 인하될 것으로 전망하고 있습니다.

8%로 소폭 상승한 반면, GDP 전망치는 낮아지고 실업률은 상승하여 현재 경제 상황을 반영했습니다.

파월 의장은 미국 경제가 노동 수요와 공급 증가로 인해 실업률이 4.

2%로 양호하며 근본적으로 괜찮다고 강조했습니다.

그는 50bp 인하를 지속적인 패턴으로 봐서는 안 된다며 향후 금리 인하 사이클을 시사했습니다.

대규모 인하 결정에도 불구하고 시장은 금리가 상승하고 주가가 등락을 거듭하는 등 이상하게 반응했고, 달러는 소폭 강세를 보였고 금값은 하락했습니다.

31% 하락하는 등 뉴욕 증시의 주요 지수가 하락한 반면, 러셀 2000 지수는 0.

연방준비제도이사회가 금리 인하에 대해 엇갈린 메시지를 내놓으면서 시장에 혼란을 야기했고, 이번에는 50bp를 인하했지만 향후 인하에 대한 명확한 언급은 없었습니다.

일자리 성장률과 소매판매를 포함한 경제지표는 안정적인 성장 추세를 시사하는 반면, 연준의 점도표는 금리 인하 속도가 기존 예상보다 느리다는 것을 나타냅니다.

FMC 기자 회견에 대한 무관심한 반응

FMC 기자회견과 찰스의 현금 채권 전략에 대한 시장의 반응은 기존 포지션이 반영된 움직임으로 하루나 이틀 정도는 정리될 것으로 예상됩니다.

통화정책의 선제적 변화는 시장에 긍정적인 신호로 여겨지며 연착륙 가능성에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

미연준은 리스크와 불확실성에 선제적으로 대응하기 위해 금리 인하를 지속할 것으로 예상되며, 금리 인하가 시작되면 중형주가 아웃퍼폼할 것으로 예상됩니다.

중형주 중심의 SNP 400 지수는 역사적으로 금리 인하 주기 동안 S&P 500 및 Russell 2000 지수를 상회하는 수익률을 기록했습니다.

중형주는 S&P 500에 비해 재무제표가 튼튼하고 주가수익비율이 낮습니다.

최근 시장 움직임과 연준의 조치로 인해 의문이 제기되고 있지만 전반적인 시나리오는 경기 둔화 후 회복 가능성을 시사하고 있습니다.

주식 시장과 채권 수익률: 복잡한 관계

경제 강세에 대한 우려에도 불구하고 주식 시장은 경기 침체를 예상하지 않고 있습니다.

소매 및 주택 지표는 미국 경제가 강세를 보이고 있으며 시장은 경기 침체 가능성을 낮게 받아들이고 있습니다.

차익 실현과 주식 포지션 이동 등 현재 시장의 움직임은 엇갈린 반응을 보이고 있으며, 기술주 매도세가 전체 시장 지수에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

장기 채권의 펀더멘털과 영향력

장기채권은 인플레이션, 성장률 등 펀더멘털과 수요와 공급에 관련된 기술적 요인에 영향을 받습니다.

현재 수급 상황이 좋지 않은 상황에서 급격한 금리 인하는 인플레이션 상승과 불확실한 성장으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

채권 시장은 연준의 영향력이 축소되면서 진정한 채권 가격 형성을 목표로 정상화 과정을 거치고 있습니다.