I'm here with the Wall Street Morning Briefing. At the beginning, my voice was a bit calm when I was briefing alone, and I don't know why, but I've been having stomach pains since the weekend, so I haven't had much energy. However, when I feel low on energy, I think taking some health supplements will help, so I plan to take them all after this. Our viewers, remember that health is the most important thing. You need to be healthy to work well, and being healthy makes life enjoyable. Lately, investing in U.S. stocks has been really stressful. If you look behind me, there are ETFs related to India. There's a new ETF that was recently listed by Hanwha. I became interested in India at the beginning of this year, and personally, I've been creating content about it, but I haven't been able to invest, which is really disappointing. However, I've noticed that the Indian stock market has risen nearly 24% year-to-date. Seeing that,

I sometimes think that instead of being overly cautious, we should take the plunge. For those interested in the Indian stock market, it might be a good idea to check out ETFs. This time, we have a global interview with Kwon Dong-ho, the manager at Merche Securities. Welcome, Manager Kwon.

Hello, Manager Kwon. Aren't you interested in India?

India? Well, I did invest a bit when I was managing funds in the past, but I find it quite challenging. I feel more comfortable with the U.S. market.

Yes, it seems like you have a better sense of it. There needs to be a certain rhythm to the investments, but I've realized that it's not easy for me.

Understood. When it's not easy, you might want to consider ETF investments. For investments in the U.S. market, we can discuss it with Manager Kwon. Manager, looking at the title, is this a case of false hope, or do you really see some signals?

Ah, it seems like that's the case. These days, individual investors are really struggling. I think it's quite natural, and it is difficult. The reason is that while the index hasn't dropped as much as expected, the stocks in my account have fallen significantly. Especially the large-cap stocks that led the first half of the year, particularly those with AI mega-trend momentum, have mostly undergone significant corrections. For instance, Nvidia has dropped by over 20%, but many other stocks have fallen by 30-40%, and there are even some that have lost 10%. Moreover, the big tech stocks are not performing well, which makes people wonder what to do. It seems like there are a lot of thoughts on this. The market goes up one day and down the next, constantly fluctuating. Yes, it's in a box range, right? It is a box.

Ah, I think many people are wondering when the market will find a bottom and start to rise more significantly, and I feel the same way. I'm thinking about how we can meaningfully identify the bottom and I’d like to share some thoughts I’ve整理ed on this topic. I believe we might see the bottom around October. Let’s go through the reasons one by one. 

First, regarding employment, last week’s employment data was somewhat unusual and interesting. If you found it interesting, I must say it wasn’t. It wasn’t interesting at all. The unemployment rate was expected to be 4.2%, and it came out at 4.2%. Given the high level of anxiety leading up to this release, I was worried about what would happen if the numbers came out poorly. However, it turned out better than expected. The non-farm payroll also came in slightly lower than anticipated.

However, it was just at an acceptable level. The problem arose after the presentation when the revisions came out last month and the month before. In any case, I have been consistently underperforming. It's not just that I underperformed for two months; I actually underperformed for four consecutive months. I thought it was 175, but it turned out to be 165. I thought it was 27, but it turned out to be 218, 206, and 179. Since I've been continuously underperforming like this, it seems there is some issue with the data or the survey itself. They usually compile the data quickly for presentation, and then they make corrections. People check everything carefully, but it's impossible to conduct a thorough investigation. Therefore, they do a rough survey first and then make adjustments little by little.

Anyway, the fact that it has continued to decline for four consecutive months has some significance; I interpret it negatively. In the meantime, Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve, made comments during the last blackout period before the FOMC meeting. He mentioned that they are open-minded regarding the scale and pace of rate cuts if necessary. At first glance, one might think, That could be possible, but if you look into the details, he said that if the labor market deteriorates faster than expected, the Fed could respond with larger rate cuts, and if the data indicates a need for more significant cuts, they would support that as well. This might seem a bit confusing as it goes back and forth, but the key point is that right now...

Employment is the most important factor. Until this month, everything was just okay. However, if the data comes out poorly next month, I am still inclined to lower it by 50 basis points. If not in September, then it will be in October. So, even if we lower it by 25 basis points in September, if the data related to employment is also bad between September and October, we could lower it by 50 basis points in October. This is what it means. Because of this, the possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September at the FMC has significantly increased, to about 75%. Regarding the employment data, this is not a recession; it's more of a slight slowdown, a soft landing, and it's manageable. However, if it worsens in the future, we are open to lowering it by 50 basis points. This is the kind of signal we have sent to the market. After hearing this, it seems that people were a bit confused about the 50 basis points.

Is it good or bad that it is declining? It’s good, right? Or is it bad? The interpretations vary among experts. When it drops by 50 basis points, the stock market plummets, but then you hear that a 50 basis point drop is a huge positive factor, which is quite confusing. Let me organize this and explain it. 

I think we need to look at this from two perspectives: the macro level and the corporate level. First, let's look at the macro level. At the macro level, I believe the important thing will be the dot plot from the September FOMC meeting. After the employment data was released last Friday, I was quite surprised to see that the forecast for interest rate cuts this year is 25 basis points in September and 50 basis points in November and December, totaling a 125 basis point cut. That’s a significant reduction. You might remember that in the June dot plot, the forecast for this year...

Interest rates have changed suddenly, right? Now, in June, it was one hike, and by September, it became two hikes. The data didn’t suddenly become completely bad. If we consider whether the dot plot in September will show four or five hikes, I don’t think that will be the case. I don’t think there will be a significant change. What the market is currently demanding is five rate hikes this year and about four rate cuts next year. The dot plot should reflect that to some extent. Additionally, Powell's comments should indicate that we are somewhat on the brink of a recession and that we will take proactive measures. That’s what the market wants, but if we think about it, the current data does not support that level of action.

I think Powell will feel some pressure when speaking like this. If we think about it, the September FOMC may not be as favorable for the market as expected. I'm looking at the fall now. Earlier, the original opinion was that if employment weakens, then when necessary, a 50 basis point cut is on the table. So, Powell now needs to provide some justification for that 50 basis point cut. What could be the trigger for justifying the 50 basis point cut? Ultimately, the justification will come from employment, because the CPI is definitely on a downward trend. Tomorrow, the announcement will be made, and if I remember correctly, the core CPI should be around 2.6. Since the downward trend has been established, excluding that, employment becomes the most important factor, and within employment, the unemployment rate is also very crucial.

This time, it came out at 4.2%, so it just passed as a case. However, if it comes out at 4.4 or 4.5, then I think the market will start to demand a 50 basis point cut. Some people talk negatively about the 5 basis point cut, while others speak positively, but I feel there is a bit of a lag. So, if the employment figures come out weak, and the market begins to demand a cut, I believe the stock market won't be doing well at that time; it will likely be sluggish. After that, the FOMC members will come out and make comments. During that time, they might say that the possibility of a 50 basis point cut is open and that we could do that. I think there’s a high chance they will keep making such comments from early to mid-October. From that point on, the market is likely to find a bottom.

The market is sluggish, and it seems to be stalling a bit. After a period of slight sluggishness, the Federal Reserve members are somewhat soothing the situation with their comments. If they decide to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the FOMC meeting in November, it could lay the groundwork for a significant rebound in the stock market. There is an FOMC meeting in September, but none in October. I misspoke earlier; it's not a rate cut in October but rather a potential 25 basis point cut in September. If the employment-related data released in October is disappointing, the market might struggle, and at that point, the members may all start saying that they will lower rates in November. However, is it possible to do that right before the presidential election? That seems likely. Oh, it’s quite interesting. The election is on Tuesday, November 5th.

The presidential election is on Thursday, and the FMC meeting is on Friday, followed by the November employment report. So, to be honest, commenting since October doesn't really matter much. Anyway, if interest rates are cut, I don't think it will be negatively impactful on the stock market in the very short term. I mean, if employment figures come out negatively and the possibility of a 5 basis point cut increases, the stock market might not do well in the short term. However, after a little while, I believe the stock market will react positively. The reason I mention this is that I have frequently pointed out that the current situation resembles the IT bubble of the 1990s. From 1995 to the early 2000s, the U.S. stock market rose significantly over almost five years, even though there were a couple of notable declines in between.

There was a certain period. What was that period? It was the Asian financial crisis, which we are all familiar with. At that time, there was a drop of about 15%. If we look at the peak and the trough, it seems quite similar to now. However, back then, interest rates were not lowered because the impact on the United States was relatively minor. During the second crisis, things worsened significantly. When Russia declared a moratorium, the largest hedge fund at that time, Long-Term Capital Management, went bankrupt. This caused a slight feeling of crisis in the U.S. financial system, leading to an urgent series of three consecutive interest rate cuts. At that time, the Nasdaq dropped by 25%. If we think about it, that’s more than a 10% drop compared to now, more than 10% lower. At that time, interest rates...

It fell, but eventually, it hit the bottom and went up. This is similar to the NASDAQ, which went from 2,500 to now 10,000, and then from 1,500, the peak is close to 5,000. So, the index has tripled since that time. It has started to rise significantly. I'm saying that this time will be the same. In early October, a report will be released showing that employment figures are somewhat disappointing, which increases the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut. Although it may be sluggish in the short term, the committee members will make comments that will provide hints. If the consensus forms that there will be a 5 basis point cut in November, then it is highly likely that the market will find a bottom and start to rise from that point. If we calculate that timing, it seems likely to be around mid-October. The market was shaken once in August due to employment data, then it recovered, shook again in September, and will likely shake again in October.

It seems that there is a possibility. Yes, that's a bit difficult. So, August was actually the month with the most shock in the short term, and the stock market has been fluctuating. If we look at the indices rather than individual stocks, September is still slightly uncertain compared to August. Then, how will October be? When a person experiences something once or twice, they might think differently after experiencing it three times. They might consider it as a pattern or think that if this is the third time, the employment situation must be really bad, leading to further declines. Because of the poor employment situation, the Federal Reserve might urgently decide to cut rates by 50 basis points. A 50 basis point cut is not something that happens often. This shows that the Federal Reserve is willing to take strong action, which indicates their determination in the market.

I think we should take a positive approach. Yes, I mentioned this at the macro level, and now I want to talk about the second leading sector. When we discuss companies, the corporate level is also very important. Currently, we are in a rising market, and since AI has started, I believe there is a high possibility that it will end soon. Therefore, within the AI-led sector, the rebound of leading stocks is crucial. However, right now, the momentum is lacking. If you look at the box range, it has been stuck in this range for about five months, fluctuating back and forth. We need to break through this momentum, but during the last earnings announcement, I was somewhat worried because the gross profit margin has decreased, and the growth rate has also slowed down. Moreover, there are no profitable AI companies, and big tech will...

Isn't it possible to reduce investment spending? There are various concerns overlapping, and the stock price is currently stuck in this range. Ultimately, I think we need to resolve all these issues with the launch of Blackwell. The Blackwell launch is at the end of the fourth quarter, so there's still some time left. I believe we might find some clues for a rebound around the time of Nvidia's earnings announcement, or shortly after that. Until then, will AI continue to be stagnant? I don't think so. Since September, there has been a bit of momentum in AI software. We need to confirm that, and if this momentum works properly, I see a possibility of a shift from hardware to software in the AI theme. Among those, I see Apple and Tesla as the leading stocks.

그것은 돈을 버는 AI 소프트웨어 출시가 시작되기 때문입니다. 그런데 10월에 이 AI 애플 인텔리전스가 베타 버전으로 출시되는데요, 베타 버전입니다. 왜냐하면 우선 지금 내놓는 것이고, 전 세계에 뿌리는 것이 아니라 미국에만 우선 배포하고 영어로만 진행되고 있기 때문입니다. 그래서 정식 버전이 언제 나오는지는 아직 모르겠어요. 아마 베타 버전이 나오고 수정이 이루어지면서 계속 완성도를 높여 갈 것 같습니다. 저희가 최 GPT조차도 완벽하지 않잖아요. 대답이 이상하게 나오는 경우도 종종 있고, 그런 오류들을 많이 줄이려고 하고 있습니다. 그래서 아마 베타 버전이 여러 개 나오면서 좀 더 안정되지 않을까 싶습니다. 어제 애플 발표를 보신 분들이 얼마나 있을지는 모르겠지만, 긴장감이 있었습니다.

There have been discussions about how intelligence will come out with these features, and there was a presentation yesterday. I think everyone who saw it might feel a bit lost. It’s hard to grasp what is really different. When we actually use it, will we think, “Wow, AI is really different now,” or “This Apple intelligence is completely different from Siri”? That’s the most important thing. This is the first time it’s being introduced, and none of us have really used it before. We need to experience it to feel, “What is this? Oh, this is nice!” 

However, recently, one of the most fascinating AI-related features I’ve tried is the ability to record calls and summarize them. Of course, if the pronunciation is a bit off during the recording, it might not capture everything perfectly, but as long as it understands the context well, I was really amazed by how it summarizes the conversation.

We just had a meeting for about an hour, right? If we record that, AI will summarize it for us. Naver Clova has been providing this service, and I thought it was really useful and beneficial. However, if there are features that make it even more convenient to use, that would be great. But I don't think I would change my phone just for this AI feature since most phones already have similar functionalities. Even with Apple's beta version, there should be a lot of options available, right? But when will that be confirmed? It's scheduled for October. I wonder why it takes an extra month to release it to the public. They might think it’s still a bit lacking. So, I believe how well consumers utilize it will be extremely important.

It seems that Apple has rarely created something entirely new. They didn't develop anything on their own initially. For example, with the watch and wireless earphones, it's all the same. However, when Apple does it, it feels different because it turns out to be convenient. They are a company that is completely specialized in enhancing consumer utility, which raises our expectations. But we need to confirm whether consumers are really utilizing these products well for the demand for iPhone upgrades to strongly occur. There are reportedly over 300 million people who have been using their phones for more than four years, which is quite a lot. When I think about it, I realize that I've also had my phone for nearly four years. I haven't experienced any inconvenience at all, except for a bit of battery...

빨리 바꿔야 한다는 것 빼고는, 우리에게 변화할 만한 모멘텀은 없잖아요. 오히려 지금 바꾸면 약간 귀찮은 점이 있어서, 데이터를 모두 옮겨야 하고 많은 데이터가 필요할 것 같아요. 그래서 현재 상황은 이렇습니다. 만약 AI 기능이 정말 소비자들에게 와, 이거 괜찮다, 쓸 만하다라는 반응을 얻는다면, 그때부터는 교체를 고려할 것 같아요. 저조차도 그렇게 생각해요. 그러면 교체 수요가 강하게 일어나면 아마 아이폰 하드웨어의 매출이 굉장히 많이 오를 거고, 애플 인텔리전스에 관한 이야기는 아직 나오지 않았어요. 그런데 유료 버전으로 나온다고 했잖아요. 맞아요, 월 20달러 정도 얘기하는데, 그 20달러도 이 기능과 다른 것들, 클라우드 서비스 등 여러 가지가 포함될 것 같아요.

A couple of months ago, it was suggested that we might be able to sell a complete package for around $20. Anyway, we are going to make various attempts related to monetization. If they continue to succeed in the current market with AI software and keep trying new things, then the investments made in NVIDIA GPUs to set up data centers for AI training will no longer feel like a waste. We are now laying the foundation for making money. We will be able to confirm this starting in October, although it’s uncertain whether it will be released in early October, mid-October, or late October. For now, we need to verify it ourselves. Of course, we may not be able to verify it directly from the U.S., but we can still do so indirectly.

I think if something succeeds in the United States, it is likely to succeed globally as well, which is why I consider it important. The second point is about Tesla. Tesla's AI team has announced a roadmap for the first time. What did they announce? There are various technical aspects and plans, but I won't go into all the details since it’s quite complicated. I’ve noted that they are waiting for regulatory approval in Europe and China in the first quarter of next year. This has been a reason for Tesla's stock price to rise significantly recently. It has risen a lot. I believe the RoboTaxi announcement will not be delayed any further from October 10. If it gets delayed again, it would be a big problem. They have been waiting for two months now. The stock price is expected to fluctuate between $160 and $270.

After rising and being supported, it has now come back down and is no longer declining. However, seeing that they are practicing at Warner Brothers Studios, it seems likely that something will happen. What we need to pay attention to is quite obvious: the level of technology is the most important factor. It matters what level of technology they will come out with, where commercialization will start, and when it will happen. These factors are crucial because that is how investors can model the profitability of FSD and robot taxis. This will be reflected in the stock price. Ultimately, I see this as the beginning of AI software that can generate revenue. This could reignite investment in AI, and I'm not saying that AI hardware, like semiconductors, is declining, but rather that the semiconductor market is currently in a state of stagnation, showing no further growth.

In a situation where there is a lot of doubt about whether it will happen, if companies that make money with AI software start to show something one by one, it is likely to create a positive cycle, leading both software and hardware to progress together. We will be able to see this after October 10th, and I believe that mid-October might become a turning point. Anyway, AI needs to show something, but I feel that we shouldn't raise expectations too high at this moment. Currently, it doesn't seem like we are on the verge of a real innovation; that moment has already passed. When AI first came out, and we were all wondering what it was, stocks like Nvidia soared, but that's not the case anymore. Now, it's about companies that actually make money.

We have now entered a phase where we can utilize and verify who is really making money. Therefore, we need to check these aspects one by one. I have mentioned various points today, but I will organize them and discuss the macro and corporate aspects in detail. This time, we are trying to identify the bottom by looking at both the macro and corporate sides. The upcoming September FOMC meeting is really important. However, based on the current data, it is not showing significant weakness. This suggests that there is a high possibility that Powell will not talk about aggressive interest rate hikes. I believe the dot plot will also not be overly aggressive. In this situation, if the employment data comes out weak in early October, for example, with an unemployment rate around 4.4 or 4.5...

If this situation arises, I believe that the members of the Federal Reserve will come out and deliver speeches to calm the market. This means that expectations for aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could increase. Waller has already mentioned the possibility of a 50 basis point hike, so if other members echo similar sentiments, the likelihood of a 50 basis point increase at the November FOMC meeting may rise. In that case, while stock prices might be somewhat sluggish in the short term, the increased likelihood of a 50 basis point hike could lead to a rise in stock prices. I think the bottom could be around mid-October in terms of macroeconomic factors. However, on the corporate side, the momentum for AI hardware is currently in a lull. There is a high possibility that AI software could touch its bottom, with key companies being Apple and Tesla.

The most important thing is whether iPhone users are effectively utilizing AI right now. Since the public will start using it from October, we need to confirm through their usage and the reviews that will be posted on YouTube that this actually works and is beneficial. Additionally, with Tesla's RoboTech event scheduled for October 10, we will be able to determine if AI software can be monetized at that time. Therefore, by around mid-October, we should be able to see some momentum in corporate performance. I believe that the overall stock market will begin to rise from around mid-October, finding a bottom and then progressing. Between mid-October and the November FOMC meeting, I anticipate that the market will find its footing and start to climb. In the last Apple Developer Conference, AI was a significant focus for Apple.

When intelligence was first unveiled, on that day, people were wondering what it was. The next day, everyone realized that Apple had finally achieved on-device processing, and the stock price skyrocketed. I remember that it gained momentum from that point. AI is a significant money-maker, and Apple typically doesn't release anything unless it’s well-prepared. However, they have finally decided to launch this now, and it will be coming out soon. So, can we think positively about Apple's prospects? There have been ups and downs in perception, but Apple usually releases products with a high level of completeness. This time, however, they referred to it as a beta version, which indicates that the technology is currently integrating OpenAI's technology with Apple's own. Therefore, I don't believe the level of completeness is very high yet.

I think that despite everything, consumers have been using it, and if it’s at this level, it’s acceptable. If this is a beta version, it will gradually improve, and we can intuitively see that the consumer utility will increase significantly. However, I believe that this verification process will take place in October. Since this is the first step for on-device AI, there is a lot of anticipation from consumers and investors. I think this anticipation will carry over until October, and as we actually use it and confirm the features, I believe the excitement will likely grow even more. Therefore, I think we need to look at Apple positively in the second half of the year. Now, through variables related to companies and macro factors, let’s discuss why after mid-October...

In the market, we are discussing the rebound, but the fact is that we are still not even halfway through September. So, we will have to endure the continued volatility between September and October. It’s quite challenging, as the market keeps going up and down. How did you handle it this time? In August, you actually responded quite quickly, but you weren’t able to buy at the bottom. You bought some defensive stocks and so on, but in conclusion, it seems like you weren't able to do particularly well. It’s a bit disappointing, but despite that, preventing the account from being critically damaged is what’s important. So, I am trying to find the bottom, but it seems that the momentum isn't very strong.

Since the highs are elevated, there is a high possibility of fluctuations up and down. This is because there isn't much momentum at the macro level, and similarly, there isn't significant momentum at the corporate or micro level either. For example, NVIDIA rose by 3% yesterday, but that was merely a response to value buying. Morgan Stanley mentioned that concerns are excessive, which is why it increased. However, this alone does not provide enough strength to push it all the way back to its previous peak. 

If we consider how to gain that strength, we can think about potential momentum that may arise at both the macro and micro levels. This could occur around mid-October. For the time being, I believe we should observe the market closely for about a month and be prepared to endure some level of volatility. Therefore, our individual investors should...

In such volatile periods, when responding, of course, if I want to invest in a company like Apple, I currently think that buying at around $220 or $200 is a good deal. If that's the case, then I would accumulate shares at that price level. Or, if we consider the timing you mentioned, after mid-October, I wonder if I should wait until around October 14. How should I respond? As I mentioned earlier, people's investment tendencies vary, but in my case, I confirm a clear signal before taking action. I don't buy little by little just because I think it's cheap. This is because even if I buy thinking it's cheap, the price can drop further. And Apple could suddenly announce something like Tesla did, saying, Sorry, but in November... That would really throw cold water on the situation. We didn't know Tesla would end up like that either.

But I don't know how it will turn out. Especially since this is a technology that is being introduced for the first time, we need to apply it to our phones and use it for the first time. Therefore, we need to verify everything one by one, and the reactions from consumers will be really, really important. I think it's not too late to check this before making a purchase. So, I believe we can generate enough profit without always trying to buy at the lowest point. It might be better to avoid taking on too much risk. I think we should just take a month off from the market and not open HTS or MTS. But if we do that, we won't see a 3% increase, right? No, we need to watch because we need to understand the signals. You have to touch the buy button or the sell button with your finger, so you should definitely keep an eye on it, everyone.

If you don't see it, you won't be able to gauge where the signal is coming from. You need to watch it to know. What are you talking about? You should come every two weeks. However, in between those times, our manager will definitely check the signals and inform us. I understand. There will be various macro variables and important news released during this time, and we will also have our manager with us every two weeks to discuss any changes and what he has discovered this time. So, today we had our second global interview with Manager Kwon Dong-ho from Meris. Thank you, Manager. Thank you. With the careful guidance of investment masters Park Geun-young, Lee Sun-hyuk, and Yeom Seung-hwan, develop healthy investment habits. Join the 3% membership on the 3% app.

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- (전화) 02-2118-0707, 010-3898-2324
- (메일) edu.help@3protv.com
- (1:1 문의 게시판) https://apps.3protv.com/myqna/write
- 평일 09:00-18:00 운영되며, 주말에는 3PRO 앱/웹에 1:1 문의를 남겨주시면 감사하겠습니다.

📢사칭 주의
- 삼프로TV의 구성원과 삼프로TV에 출연하시는 분들은 문자메시지/카카오톡/전화/텔레그램 등을 통해 절대 개인적인 투자권유 및 리딩방, SNS 가입을 권유하지 않습니다.
- 만일 이러한 연락을 받으셨다면 모두 사기이므로, 링크를 클릭하지 마시고 피해가 없도록 주의하시기 바랍니다.

연준이 50bp 금리 인하를 언급한 이유 f.권동우 메리츠증권 부장 [글로벌 인터뷰 2]

연준이 50bp 금리 인하를 언급한 이유 f.권동우 메리츠증권 부장 [글로벌 인터뷰 2]

스크립트