주식 시장 분석 및 투자 전략

### 2022년 7월 시장 분석 및 투자 전략
* 📊 S&P 500 지수는 **18% 상승**, 나스닥 지수는 **22% 상승**하여 조정이 필요한 상황입니다.
* 💼 러셀 2000 지수는 지난 한 달 동안 **88% 급등**했지만, 일반적으로 S&P 500 지수의 성과를 따르기 때문에 이러한 추세는 오래 지속되지 않을 수 있습니다.
* 📈 미국 기업 이익이 2분기에 **99% 증가**하는 등 빠르게 성장하고 있어 올해 남은 기간 동안의 경제 전망도 밝습니다.
* 🏢 특히 반도체 분야의 대형 기술주는 최근 조정에도 불구하고 여전히 매력적이며, **엔비디아나 테슬라와 같은 선도 기업이 강력한 성장 잠재력**을 보여주고 있습니다.
* 🇺🇸 다가오는 미국 대통령 선거는 **트럼프가 재선될 경우 점진적인 금리 인하**가 예상되는 등 금융 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 🏗 주택 건설, 재생 에너지 등 **금리 하락의 수혜**를 받는 산업은 현재 경제 환경에서 좋은 성과를 거칠 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📱 애플은 여전히 매력적이지만, **수익 성장률 전망치가 낮아져 엔비디아나 테슬라 같은 다른 기술주만큼 매력적이지 않을 수 있습니다.**
* 📉 현재 시장의 조정은 비교적 단기에 그칠 것으로 예상되며, **7월 하반기에 반등할 가능성**이 있습니다.

유동원 이사는 시세조종 가능성과 금리 우호적 환경으로 인해 소형주 투자 비중을 점진적으로 늘려야 한다고 조언합니다.

Today, I will be conducting an interview for 2 minutes with Mr. Yoo Dong-won, the Head of Global Asset Allocation at Yuanta Securities. Hello. Hello. Hello, Mr. Yoo. Today, the market is showing signs of recovery, and yesterday, there was a rebound in the stock market. However, I think it's necessary to diagnose the market in July. That's right. In fact, the market has risen quite a bit due to the economy. Compared to the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 had risen by almost 18%, and the Nasdaq had risen by 22%. So, it seems like some adjustment or a bit of a breather is needed at this point. Right. So, if we look at July, last week, there was a significant drop. The S&P 500 dropped by nearly 2%, and the Nasdaq dropped by almost 4%, reversing a considerable portion of the returns.

But now, if you look at the interesting aspect here, Russell 2000 has risen by 88% over the past month, which hadn't increased at all in the first half of the year, but only in the second half, it is now rising by 88%, showing an increasing trend. Even though small and medium-sized stocks didn't rise with the rebound yesterday, they are showing a chasing trend again. Therefore, looking at this kind of trend, what we can judge is that obviously some manipulation is needed, and it seems that manipulation has occurred. However, even though small and medium-sized stocks are rising like this, and when we look at the overall fundamental aspects, it doesn't seem like this manipulation will last long. This is how we can judge, so it seems quite important to see how to manage your portfolio and increase your investments in this kind of manipulation. I will talk about this timing, sir.

I tried to ask for the reason for the adjustment, but you said that it was necessary due to the need for adjustment. So, I would like to hear a bit more explanation on that part, and I would like to know the basis for it. So, if I were to explain, over the past 10 years, the average annual return of the US SNP 500 is a little over 10% annually. And also, in years with presidential elections, the return is 15%, especially when the Republican Party wins, it goes even higher to 15%. But in the first half of the year, it increased by 18%, right? That's too much of a pull, and also, the ROE, Return on Equity, of the current S&P 500 is a little over 20%. If it goes up by 20%, it's a significant increase. So, it's almost pulled up to that level in the first half, so it needs to take a break.

I would like to take a break because of that. Now, when it comes to the part about whether the pilot is in control, the fundamentals are important. Currently, it is the year 2024 going into 2025. If you look, the profit growth rate is increasing. In the first quarter, it is at 5% growth rate, and now in the second quarter, how much has it gone up? 99%. And annually, it is 11%. Furthermore, next year it will be 14.7%, continuously increasing. When profits are on the rise like this, even if the market is in control, it doesn't last long. Also, if you look at the movement of the S&P 2000 now, although it seems like the Russell 2000 is leading the market up, it's not always the case. Sometimes it follows the performance of the S&P 500 and then falls again. So, ultimately, the leader is the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 is now following. You should see it this way.

In the midst of this, a very important point is how the economy should be in order for profits to increase. It should be stable. For example, if you look at the GDP growth rate forecast announced by the New York Fed, the dark line below is the number for the second quarter, and the red line is the number for the third quarter. As you can see, it is rising rapidly. Therefore, concluding that if the economic growth rate shows a stable trend in the second and third quarters, considering that the fundamentals can continue to improve, it doesn't seem like this adjustment will last long. I think I can say that. Yes, there was a hopeful talk that the adjustment could stop at a certain stage. Ultimately, the judgment of whether this adjustment will last long depends on the fundamentals. However, even through the graphs you have examined,

We are seeing a continuous upward trend until the third quarter of the second quarter, so in that regard, I think we don't need to worry too much. Based on this thought, I understood it. So, we need to look at the flow of large-cap tech stocks like semiconductor stocks. How do you see recent adjustments related to corrections? Right. The movements of semiconductor stocks and other large-cap tech stocks are very good. If many opinions arise saying that they have risen too much and need to pull back, if that's the case, it means the market is over. In fact, when a leading stock stops rising after a cycle, that usually marks the end of the cycle. Therefore, in our assessment, we believe that the cycle has not ended yet.

Where is the main focus? You can see it in growth stocks or tech stocks. What kind of chart are we showing? The Nasdaq index corrected by 12% in October last year over a three-month period. However, if you look at it now, the rate of increase is steep. In this process, it corrected by 8.5% in one month, which is a very short period. Then, after a significant rise, it dropped by 6.3% in just one month. However, the duration of corrections seems to be getting shorter, and the magnitude is decreasing. Therefore, in my opinion, the correction may last until the end of July at the longest. It doesn't seem like this pattern will continue for much longer. I will mention again that even if there is another correction, it will likely be like this.

As we can see in the second box, the width is a bit wider, and the amplitude is somewhat limited. We can also make predictions. What's more important is what I showed earlier, which is now 100 companies and when we look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, we can see the leading stocks, which is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. If you look at it now, during the same period, it dropped by 18% in three months last year, and again, for a period of just over a month, about 2 months, 1 and a half years, and 5 months, it dropped by 18% again. This time, it dropped rapidly by 11% in just a week. As it is now raising the bottom, we can even think that looking only at the RAD Semiconductor Index, the correction may be almost over. Furthermore, if we focus more on this and look closely, we commonly

Now, we need to look at large-cap tech stocks. When you look at these 12 large-cap tech stocks, their charm really stands out. You might think the charm of the NASDAQ is high, but these large-cap tech stocks show double or triple the charm. Especially when you see the next chart of these large-cap tech stocks, you will start to wonder why you should sell them. The earnings for the 24th quarter will be announced soon. If you look at the forecast, the profit growth rates of Amazon, Google, Meta, and Nvidia are 56.4%, while the other 490 companies are 5.7%. There is quite a difference. So, in this context, I believe that ultimately, if we trust the numbers, large-cap tech stocks are still good. If you could also show the sectors, on the left end, those two are the most.

It looks good, but in the end, it's all about telecommunications and such. In the case of telecommunications, now, this includes what we are talking about, consumer-led, right? So, large tech companies are included. Therefore, in these two industries, the profit growth rate is high. That's why we still focus on them as main stocks and if there is control, it could be a good opportunity. Yes. Recently, there was the MS incident, so regarding that, we should consider it as a temporary issue. How do you see it? Some people interpreted it as a big problem. Oh no, is cloud investment really working? So, the IT sector is expected to have a significant correction. These concerns have been raised. Actually, if we look into it more closely, in any case, in the cloud business, market share is.

If we were to compare, after Amazon, the next big thing now is the incident that happened with Azure, which is the Microsoft customer center. So, what happened is that a massive investment in IT industry took place, oh, it went to the next level. Instead, yes, they created a huge bubble. So, when concerns arise about such an IT crisis, wouldn't people refrain from investing? No, they would invest more. Yes, so we actually have a contrary idea. We need to try something like this, we need to say that. Amidst this, we see that some fundamentals of Microsoft are very strong. Therefore, Microsoft's attractiveness, as I briefly mentioned before, well, what seems the best is Diego, and then Microsoft Customer Center. I mentioned this before, but now,

If it's 30%, it's really a lot. I also provide about 10% of the warmth. So, it's important to keep looking into it. When I look at the global market and devise a strategy, I pay attention to the names of two people, Paul's mouth and Director Yoo. Among them, there was a lot of talk about NVIDIA and Tesla. As I talk about semiconductor and technology stocks, Apple seems to be relatively less highlighted. I'm curious about the reason for this. Have you changed your perspective a bit? We are not investing in McGriffyson 7, but we are now choosing one or two stocks to invest in separately. So, Apple is included. If you check the charm of Apple once...

It's not that unattractive. Right now, relatively speaking, there is enough charm. Looking ahead, in the next 6 months, or looking at the next 24 months, I think we can show a two-digit increase advantage. But the unfortunate part now, if you look at the profit growth rate, it doesn't increase much. It was minus 23% in 2024, plus 5% in 2025, and 7.7% in 2026. So, in this regard, the P/E ratio is high, which is a bit of a headache. So, you need to think about this carefully. Ultimately, Apple has not only raised profits with hardware but also with software. However, the future in that aspect is not very clear. So, how will they make profits with AI will be a concern. But the fortunate thing is, after all, hardware.

There is a growing demand for replacement parts. If you look at it, the transition from iPhone 14 to 16 is happening quickly. Selling machines to provide AI services is one aspect of it. Also, if you look at the data on the PC side, Apple's growth rate is currently increasing significantly to around 20%. So, ultimately, looking at various aspects, although Apple's profit margin hasn't been good so far, in the medium to long term, the profit margin may increase. However, we still prefer Tesla, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. Even so, Apple still has enough appeal. So, I will talk about Tesla right away. With news like the delay of the robot taxi for two months, the stock price has increased significantly.

I also reacted, but sometimes it feels a bit excessive. I even think that it is still technically incomplete. Actually, it's not uncommon to have such perspectives. So, I would like to hear what the director thinks. It's uncomfortable, right? Because, as I mentioned earlier, the magnificent seven-year-olds have an average PR of 30 now. But what about Tesla's PR? It's 15 times higher. So, it's more than double. So, what does this mean? It means that profits need to increase more than twice as fast. Then, in order to increase profits by more than double, where should it come from? As I mentioned, it should come from this AI field, autonomous driving, or maybe robot taxis, not from the existing electric car sector. So, if that succeeds, what will happen? If it succeeds,

Profits have increased significantly in this area, so if the amount earned from electric cars doubles in this area, the stock price will reach $500. Is it impossible? I think it's possible. However, people are still a bit anxious, both about Musk's actions and in various other aspects. Nevertheless, Tesla's market capitalization is larger than that of other companies, so there are some limitations to how high it can go. When looking at market capitalization, as I mentioned earlier, the market capitalization of leading global companies exceeds $3 trillion. However, Tesla's market cap is only $800 billion, which means it is at about one-third of that level. So, if this company can gain competitiveness.

If the AI industry here is as competitive as other global companies, it can generate profits of up to 3 trillion dollars. Therefore, there could be a possibility that the stock price could increase by 100% from the current price. However, we still need to confirm as the performance has not been fully grasped yet. So, we are in a situation where we need to observe a bit more. Let's also discuss the U.S. presidential election a bit more. Trump and Harris vs. this kind of situation, how do you see it? We need to anticipate the impact on the financial market as Trump is taking a strong stance on issues like interest rates. So, we need to interpret Trump well. What he said recently was about his electric cars.

I used to hate it four years ago. I hated the environmental aspect, saying it's all a lie, even fought with kids. That's why I've completely changed now. Why? Because electric cars are the trend. Yes, being eco-friendly is also a trend. So, ultimately, Trump is going towards getting more votes, following the public opinion. So, should the interest rate go down? Yes, it will go down. Just don't lower it until he's elected. It shouldn't improve. That's why I think that's the statement coming out. Currently, the basic PC inflation, if you look at the overall PCE inflation, is stabilizing downwards, and it will stabilize between 2% and 2.5% in the future. So, if this happens, the interest rate will now be 5.5%.

It's too high, so if the Fed lowers the rate by 0.25% twice this year and one or two times next year, maybe even three times, we think they might lower it by about 1% to 1.25% over the next year and a half. So, if that happens, wouldn't it be better for the market to focus on the long-term picture rather than Trump's impromptu remarks? Yes, I see. Earlier, you mentioned looking at the Russell index. Yes, if interest rates are ultimately lowered to that level, there is a possibility that the positive momentum of small and large-cap stocks could be transferred, improving the overall market conditions. Can you please elaborate on this a bit more? Well, there are some aspects to consider. For example, once the cycle starts, the market will rise, and then...

Gradually increasing and in the end, only small and medium-sized stocks rise, and it ends like that. So, is it right before the end of the rise of small and medium-sized stocks that they rise a bit now? That doesn't seem to be the case. Therefore, in our judgment, it's better to gradually increase exposure to small and medium-sized stocks, rather than increasing exposure significantly and then selling everything. Yes, ultimately, if you look at the current situation, a lot of funds are flowing into small and medium-sized stocks. In this context, if you look at the attractiveness of valuations, if you look at the gap between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, it was really undervalued. Therefore, if you move on to the next, it was almost at the bottom, it was a timing that was likely to rebound a bit. The attractiveness of valuation is important, even if that's the case. However, small and medium-sized stocks are very sensitive to interest rates, so if interest rates fall quickly,

It would be nice, but it doesn't seem like that will happen. Also, if it drops quickly, it becomes a problem because the economy doesn't improve. So, when looking at the trend of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield, you should consider that it will gradually decline. And then, moving on, an important aspect within small and medium-sized stocks is the IT sector. Therefore, it is important to invest while being supported by the performance of small and medium-sized stocks. Gradually increasing the investment is crucial. So, when we look at the attractiveness of the Russell 2000 through IWM, we advised not to invest at the beginning of this year. However, now, after six months, we say that increasing the investment is also okay. But, the speed and proportion, the proportion should be around 20% of the total, it's good to gradually increase the strategy.

Could you also check how our portfolio is structured in the industry you are watching? Yes, interest rates are going to fall. Yes, so when interest rates drop, industries that benefit from the decline are, of course, the housing construction sector. So, it would be good to invest with interest in this area. In fact, it has risen a lot recently, but it still has its appeal. In addition, in sectors such as bio-healthcare, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and electric vehicle components, when interest rates fall, their attractiveness increases. Also, what is coming out here is that in the real estate sector, like in the United States, investment has been very low. Therefore, it could continue to have resilience. In general, if we include everything, both the Korean stock market and the United States...

Stock market and major stock investments are still important. That is clearly in industries other than IT and AI-related industries. Also, Korea has attractiveness in the electric vehicle sector. Currently, investing in major stocks and gradually expanding investment patterns is a good strategy. Our portfolio composition and how to proceed with it, what strategy to adopt, we discussed with Director Yoo Dong-won. Thank you.

"조정 두려움 NO!" 엔비디아 테슬라 MS 쭉쭉~ 갈까? / 유동원 유안타증권 글로벌자산배분 본부장 [오만한 인터뷰] | Market Now (20240723)

경제•증권•재테크 NO.1 '이데일리TV'의 공식 유튜브 채널

이데일리TV

유동원 대표와 함께하는 시장 분석 및 트렌드

올해 상반기에 시장이 크게 성장하면서 조정이 필요하고 조작 가능성도 제기되고 있습니다.

중소형주의 급격한 상승과 S&P 500의 높은 자기자본수익률(ROE)는 시장 숨고르기가 필요하다는 것을 나타냅니다.

이익 증가율과 러셀 2000 지수의 등락을 보면 현재 추세에도 불구하고 S&P 500 지수가 여전히 시장을 주도하고 있음을 알 수 있습니다.

경제 성장과 기술주 조정에 대한 분석

뉴욕 연준의 GDP 성장률 전망치는 빠른 증가세를 보이며 경제가 안정세를 보이고 있음을 나타냅니다.

반도체 및 기타 대형 기술주의 지속적인 상승 추세는 아직 사이클이 끝나지 않았음을 시사합니다.

나스닥 지수와 필라델피아 반도체 지수의 조정은 그 규모가 줄어들고 기간이 짧아지고 있어 7월 말까지 조정이 오래 지속되지 않을 수 있음을 시사합니다.

높은 매력과 이익 성장: 대형 기술주 분석

대형 기술주들은 다른 기업들에 비해 훨씬 높은 이익 성장률을 보이며 나스닥의 두 배, 세 배의 매력을 보여주고 있습니다.

대형 기술 기업을 포함한 통신 및 IT 섹터는 높은 이익 성장률을 보이고 있어 투자 초점이 되고 있습니다.

IT 위기와 MS 사태에 대한 우려에도 불구하고, 특히 마이크로소프트의 견고한 펀더멘털을 고려할 때 IT 산업에 대한 투자가 늘어날 것이라는 반론도 있습니다.

글로벌 시장 분석에서는 엔비디아, 테슬라, 마이크로소프트가 주목받고 있으며, 애플은 여전히 그 매력으로 인해 투자 대상으로 고려되고 있습니다.

애플의 엇갈린 미래와 테슬라의 매력

애플은 이익 성장률과 높은 주가수익비율로 어려움을 겪고 있지만 인공지능과 하드웨어 판매에서 잠재력을 보고 있으며, 테슬라는 특히 인공지능과 자율주행 부문에서 높은 수익에 대한 기대감으로 주가가 크게 상승하고 있습니다.

애플의 매력에도 불구하고, 테슬라의 행보와 시장의 한계에 대한 우려가 남아있지만 테슬라의 이익과 주가가 두 배로 증가할 수 있는 잠재력을 강조하는 토론입니다.

AI 산업 경쟁이 주가에 미치는 잠재적 영향

AI 산업은 수조 달러의 수익을 창출할 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있어 주가가 100% 상승할 수도 있습니다.

아직 업계의 성과가 완전히 파악되지 않았기 때문에 더 지켜볼 필요가 있습니다.

금리에 대한 트럼프의 입장은 금융 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 향후 1년 반 동안 1%에서 1.

금리 인하는 중소형주 및 대형주의 모멘텀에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳐 전반적인 시장 상황을 개선할 수 있습니다.

중소형주 투자 전략과 금리 하락의 영향

미국 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 점차 하락할 것으로 예상되어 투자 전략에 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.

중소형주 실적에 중요한 역할을 하는 IT 섹터는 투자에 중요한 역할을 합니다.

금리 하락으로 주택 건설, 바이오 헬스케어, 재생 에너지, 전기 자동차의 매력도가 높아지고 부동산 섹터는 회복세를 이어갈 수 있습니다.