중국 전기차에 대한 유럽연합의 관세: 무역 및 경쟁 우려

### 유럽에서 중국 전기차의 급증: 무역 긴장과 경제적 영향
* 🚗 유럽의 중국산 전기차(EV) 수입액은 **2020년 16억 달러에서 2023년 115억 달러로 급증**하며 시장의 큰 변화를 반영했습니다.
* 📈 현재 중국 자동차는 유럽 시장에서 작은 점유율을 차지하고 있지만, **2019년 1%에서 2024년 초에는 약 15%로 성장**했습니다.
* ⚖ 이러한 유입에 대응하여 유럽연합은 불공정 경쟁으로 간주되는 것으로부터 자국 자동차 산업을 보호하기 위해 **기존 10%에 더해 최대 36.3%의 관세**를 부과할 것을 제안했습니다.
* 💰 중국 제조업체들은 정부의 막대한 지원을 받아 **5,500달러의 낮은 비용**으로 전기차를 생산할 수 있는 반면, 유럽 경쟁업체들은 **약 2만 달러의 생산 비용**에 직면해 있습니다.
* 🔋 EU의 관세는 완전 조립된 전기차를 대상으로 하지만, **중국이 전 세계 생산량의 80% 이상**을 점유하고 있는 **배터리와 같은 핵심 부품**에는 적용되지 않습니다.
* 🌍 이 관세는 "공평한 경쟁의 장"을 만들기 위한 것이지만, 특히 EU가 이러한 목표를 달성하지 못하고 있는 것으로 알려진 상황에서 **2030년까지 배출량을 55% 줄이겠다는 유럽의 기후 목표**를 달성하는 데 방해가 될 수 있습니다.
* 🛠 분석가들은 관세가 너무 높으면 유럽에서 **합리적인 가격의 전기차 모델 출시가 지연**되어 이미 제한된 공공 충전 인프라로 어려움을 겪고 있는 시장에서 **전기차 채택의 어려움**을 악화시킬 수 있다고 경고합니다.
* ⚠ EU는 자동차 부문을 보호하는 동시에 경쟁력 있고 지속 가능한 전기자동차로의 전환을 보장해야 하기 때문에 **중국의 보복이 우려되는 등 상황은 여전히 불안정**합니다.

중국산 전기차의 유럽 수입이 급증하면서 우려의 목소리가 커지고 현지 제조업체를 보호하기 위한 관세 부과가 제안되었습니다.

European imports of Chinese EVs surged from $1.6 billion in 2020 to $11.5 billion in 2023. Though Chinese cars are still a small share of the total European car market, Chinese and Chinese-owned brands grew from 1% of the EV market in 2019 to about 15% in the first half of 2024. The EU needs EVs to meet ambitious climate targets. China is producing millions of EVs far cheaper than everyone else. But the sudden rush of Chinese cars into Europe has instead caused worries. We've heard about this globalization story: that we have to integrate, we have to be free trade and so on. But that was easy to tell when China was not a big player and was not changing the rules of trade. The European Union has responded by proposing tariffs of up to 36.3%. That's on top of the existing 10% already levied on all imports. A final decision is expected by October 30th. Analysts say it is the highest profile EU trade

case against China in over a decade. Chinese EVs have several advantages, but one sticks out: government support. Chinese make no apologies about it. That's our game. We're state capitalists. We're going to own this industry. But problems abound. There are loopholes. The risk of retaliation looms. European countries have reportedly been divided on the issue, and some of Europe's own automakers, the ones the tariffs are meant to protect, oppose them. The EU says its tariffs are not meant to block Chinese EVs, but instead level the playing field. We're dealing with an economy in China where credit money is allocated by the state and not by the market, and the state picks sectors that they want to promote. And in that kind of economy, if you do that, you always get overinvestment, you always get overcapacity, you always get overproduction. And then that overproduction gets dumped on the rest of the world. Chinese manufacturers can make a car for about $5,500,

the cheapest a European can do about 20,000. That gap is explained by potential subsidies that the Chinese government is giving to its companies, but also it's explained by higher economies of scale, it's explained by lower labor costs and by the fact that when it's about electric cars, China, unlike the rest of the world, has already secured the supply chain for the batteries. The tariffs only apply to fully assembled EVs, not parts like batteries. China controls more than 80% of the world's battery manufacturing capacity, and cars made all over the world, including in Europe, rely on Chinese batteries. Tariff rates vary based on how much help an automaker receives from the Chinese government. Here, it is important to note that all this is being done according to rules set out by the World Trade Organization, both the EU and China are members. There are 166 countries total and there are rules. So if China is subsidizing its auto industry and European countries say that help is giving Chinese

companies an unfair advantage. It can impose tariffs to offset it. But first, it has to prove that China is actually breaking the rules and that that rule-breaking is harming European companies. It's not arbitrary. It's a calculation of the amount of harm that's been done. And as near as I can tell, the European Union has followed the rules. They also vary based on whether a company cooperatively discloses the subsidies it receives to the European Commission. This is why the tariff on Tesla cars is a lot lower than those placed on its Chinese brand rivals. It's an American company. Chinese were a lot more generous to indigenous Chinese companies. But even they are being tariffed at different rates. These tariffs could make it more challenging for Europe to meet its ambitious climate policy goals by 2030. It needs to reduce emissions by 55% below the levels they were at in 1990. That's just six years away. A report leaked earlier this year suggests the EU is

not on track, to put it mildly. The bloc needs to double the pace of reduction to meet the 2030 target. I don't think the tariffs would be too meaningful or impactful in terms of slowing down EV growth, but if the tariffs end up being too high and domestic or local European automakers can't offer the more affordable models, then we could see some delay. If there's not enough models that are cheap enough or within the price point that consumers want to buy them. I mean, the administration is wrestling with this dilemma right now. I mean, it's the same thing with solar panels. The Chinese have something like 84% of the global market in solar panels. If you want us to convert to solar energy, the best thing you can do is bring in as many panels as you possibly can and install them everywhere. And if you say Chinese panels can't come in, which we've done, you really slow down the transition.

The holdup to EV adoption in many markets like the US and Europe is, one: there's not as much public fast charging available, but two: there's not as many low-priced EVs. And those affordable vehicle segments where the majority of consumers buy vehicles. And that's exactly what Chinese firms have been able to do, sell cars for as low as about $10,000 in the case of the BYD Seagull. European manufacturers can't match that. Neither can American, nor Japanese, nor Korean. The US has imposed a 100% tariff on all Chinese vehicles. By the way. It did that just unilaterally, not through the WTO process. But even a 100% tariff on a $10,000 car is still far cheaper than the cheapest EV sold in the US. The European carmakers, they learned that they can make more money selling fewer cars. Last year, many of them posted records in terms of operating profits. This strategy of increasing prices and producing less

cars is good, as long as you don't have a more competitive rival, such as China. At the proposed rates, they might not do much to stem the tide of Chinese imports. One analysis showed that tariffs would have to be at least in the 40 to 50% range, depending on the company, the analysts said. These rates would be unlikely, and the EU would have to use nontraditional methods like tightening labor rights or cybersecurity requirements. The economic effects of tariffs are disputed. Many economists argue, they raise prices and reduce choice. Trump has said repeatedly, you know, we're going to put tariffs on the foreign country. The Americans don't pay the tariffs. The foreigners pay the tariff. That's, for the most part, wrong. There's a mountain of data to demonstrate that it's wrong. Others say these tariffs will have a negligible effect on EV prices over the long term. There are also loopholes. To try to get around US rules, Chinese automakers such

as BYD are reportedly striking deals to build factories in Mexico, though there is uncertainty around the exact timing. This whole...it's a constant cat and mouse game. You know, you cut them off, they'll go somewhere else and make the product and ship it in. From there, you cut them off, they'll move to a third country. So why is the EU doing this? Simply, it considers the European automotive industry crucial to its future. It employs millions of people and is responsible for nearly one out of every ten manufacturing jobs. Terrorists are a giant timeout that is just designed for one purpose in mind. Buy some time while we regroup and confront this massive automotive manufacturing machine that China presents us with. Over the last few decades, countries have leveled a lot of accusations against China: intellectual property theft, bullying trade partners, and so on. Even this sudden surge of vehicle exports fits a pattern. This goes back 30, 40 years.

And when their economy gets into trouble, as it is right now, they always do the same thing. They try to export their way out of it. The EU is pretty much the last among major developed markets in the world to enact new tariffs against Chinese EVs. This makes it harder for the Chinese to redirect exports to other countries. You can squeeze them out of the United States, and all that production will just go somewhere else, and it won't change the policy. What you got to do is get everybody together and all squeeze at once, make the Chinese eat the surplus. China already makes one out of every three vehicles sold in the world. It has the capacity to make about half. Industry after industry, they flood the zone. They introduce massive capacity in a given industry. And when I first went to China in the 1980s, it was buttons. They got really good at manufacturing buttons, better than everyone else in the world. And they soon had a monopoly. Today it's solar panels.

In the United States, various trade groups have already labeled Chinese automakers an existential threat. It's another proof that the European industry is not competitive yet. In a vote in Brussels in July, 12 EU member countries reportedly voted in favor of the tariffs, four against, and 11 abstained. Votes in favor reportedly included France, Italy, and Spain, and abstentions included Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The European Commission neither confirmed nor commented to CNBC, saying the vote was confidential. They would be the beneficiaries of the tariffs, but they're worried that they have a large investment in China, and tariffs put that investment at risk. So each company is going to decide which side of that line it's going to fall on. I mean, I don't envy them. They're in a difficult situation. German carmakers have substantial businesses in China. It is Germany's third-largest auto export market, after the US and UK. The European country has a trade surplus with China in

cars and in parts. On the other side, the French and Italian manufacturers are not exposed to China at all because they are more worried about their position in Europe, which is probably the most exposed to this increasing flow of Chinese competitive cars. And though the Chinese market has become a lot tougher for foreign companies, it is still a highly desirable place to build cars for export. Again, China is a huge battery producer and is responsible for much of the rest of the EV supply chain. If an alien were to come down to Earth today and say, I'm going to build a great car company to rival Tesla, where should I put it? There's no question what the answer would be. That alien would put their business in China because it offers the highest quality at the lowest cost with advanced technologies. And not only are the Chinese companies doing this, but global auto manufacturers are basing themselves there too. The other fear: retaliation. China has already filed a complaint with the WTO over

the US EV tax credits, and it has appealed the EU decision. My observation has been the Chinese always retaliate. Since at least May, the Chinese government has been proposing to raise an import tariff on gas-burning cars with larger engines. VDA, a German automotive trade association, says this would hit German carmakers especially hard. About a third of the roughly 200,000 cars German factories sent to China in 2023 had larger engines. Another 48,000 came from German-owned factories in Slovakia, Austria, and Italy. The more likely thing with Volkswagen or Daimler-Benz is, you know, a wave of inspectors suddenly hit their plants in China and discover 37 safety violations and shut the plant down.

Why EU’s Tariffs Won’t Stop Chinese EVs

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유럽의 중국산 전기차(EV) 수입액은 2020년 16억 달러에서 2023년 115억 달러로 증가하여 2019년 1%였던 시장 점유율이 2024년 중반에는 15%로 늘어날 것으로 예상됩니다.

EU는 중국산 전기차의 갑작스러운 유입에 대응하기 위해 최대 36.

3%의 관세를 부과할 것을 제안했으며, 10월 30일까지 최종 결정이 내려질 것으로 예상됩니다.

중국 제조업체는 정부 지원, 낮은 인건비, 규모의 경제 등의 혜택을 누리는 동시에 전 세계 배터리 제조 능력의 80% 이상을 장악하고 있습니다.

관세가 전기차 성장과 기후 목표에 미치는 영향

유럽연합은 불공정한 보조금으로 혜택을 받는 기업에 관세를 부과하여 유럽 기업이 받는 혜택과 피해를 상쇄하기 위해 노력하고 있습니다.

이러한 관세는 보조금 공개에 대한 기업의 협력 여부에 따라 달라지며, 2030년까지 유럽의 야심찬 기후 정책 목표를 저해할 수 있습니다.

관세로 인한 전기차의 높은 가격은 전기차 도입을 지연시킬 수 있으며, 중국 기업의 저가 자동차는 유럽과 미국 제조업체에 도전장을 내밀고 있습니다.

중국 경쟁이 자동차 산업에 미치는 영향

중국산 수입품은 자동차 산업에 큰 도전이 되고 있으며, 제안된 관세는 실질적인 영향을 미치지 못할 것으로 보입니다.

경제학자들은 관세가 가격을 인상하고 소비자 선택권을 감소시킨다고 주장하며 관세의 효과에 대해 이의를 제기합니다.

자동차 산업은 수백만 명을 고용하고 제조업 일자리를 창출하는 등 멕시코의 경제 미래에 매우 중요한 산업이지만, EU의 대응에는 비 전통적인 방법과 멕시코 내 공장 거래가 포함됩니다.

글로벌 자동차 산업에서 중국의 우위

중국은 경제적으로 어려움을 겪고 있으며 수출로 돌파구를 찾고 있지만, 중국 전기차에 대한 EU의 새로운 관세로 인해 이 전략이 복잡해지고 있습니다.

중국은 막대한 생산 능력을 바탕으로 태양광 패널에 이어 이제는 자동차 제조까지 다양한 산업을 지배하고 있습니다.

중국의 위협에 대한 EU의 대응은 회원국들이 관세 지원에 대해 의견이 분분한 가운데 독일 자동차 제조업체들은 중국에 대한 막대한 투자로 인해 어려운 결정에 직면해 있습니다.

중국 제조업체는 내수용 자동차를 생산할 뿐만 아니라 저렴한 비용과 첨단 기술을 앞세워 외국 기업을 끌어들이며 글로벌 자동차 산업의 핵심 플레이어로 부상하고 있습니다.

경쟁력 있는 중국산 자동차의 유입이 증가하면서 유럽 제조업체들은 우려를 표하고 있으며, 중국은 대외 정책에 대한 보복으로 글로벌 자동차 제조업체에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.

수입 관세를 인상하고 검사를 강화하는 등 중국 정부의 조치는 중국에서 활동하는 외국 자동차 제조업체에 상당한 도전이 되고 있습니다.