선거를 앞둔 시장 변동성과 투자 전략

### 대통령 선거를 앞두고 시장 변동성 탐색하기
* 📉 "대선을 앞두고 변동성이 줄어들 것으로 생각합니다." **8월에 나타난 급격한 변동은 트럼프의 당선 가능성이 높아진 것**과 밀접한 관련이 있기 때문입니다.
* 📊 9월 말에 접어들면서 시장은 소폭 개선되는 모습을 보였지만, **추석 연휴를 앞두고 특히 혼란스러워 투자 심리에 영향을 미쳤습니다.**
* 📅 역사적으로 추석 이후에는 시장이 회복하는 경향이 있지만, **긴 연휴에 대한 부담과 미 연준의 금리 결정**과 같은 중요한 이벤트로 인해 투자자들은 신중한 자세를 취하고 있습니다.
* 💡 특히 예측할 수 없는 선거 결과로 인해 시장 상황이 흔들릴 수 있는 불확실한 시기에는 **중립적인 투자 전략**을 유지하는 것이 좋습니다.
* 📈 미국 시장은 잠재력을 가지고 있지만 **8월에 침체**를 경험했으며, 현재 상황은 **미국과 한국 시장 모두 강력한 모멘텀이 부족한 취약한 상태**입니다.
* ⚖ 선거 결과의 예측 불가능성을 고려할 때 위험을 완화하기 위해 **주식, 채권, 약간의 금**으로 구성된 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것이 좋습니다.
* 🔍 트럼프의 예측할 수 없는 발언과 행동으로 인해 혼란스러운 정치 환경은 **이 격동의 시대에 투자에 대한 신중한 접근**을 요구합니다.
* 🤔 궁극적으로 10월이 다가올수록 특정 자산에 공격적으로 베팅하기보다는 **균형 잡힌 투자 전략**을 채택하여 불확실성에 대비하는 것이 중요합니다.

다가오는 대통령 선거는 시장 변동성을 줄여 투자자들에게 균형 잡힌 전략을 채택할 것을 촉구할 것입니다.

I believe that volatility will decrease ahead of the presidential election. The sharp volatility we saw in early August was largely due to the significantly increased possibility of Trump's election. Interviews with Business Week and his controversial remarks had a tremendous impact on market participants, leading to a flight from investments as gold prices soared and economic indicators worsened. To be honest, I will say that the month of October will be challenging. 

Hello, this is Dongchun from The Economist. As we are almost at the end of September, let's discuss the market for October. It has been tough. As we approach the end of September, things have improved a bit, but before the Chuseok holiday, our market was in complete disarray. It was very difficult. However, as has often been the case in the past, things tend to get better after Chuseok. There seems to be a jinx about it, so buying before Chuseok and then after the holiday...

There is a bit of a jinx about selling, and it seems that it happened again this time. However, the reason the market is not doing well before Chuseok is due to the burden of the long holiday and the many events that occurred. For example, on the last day of Chuseok, there was a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which made investors want to hold onto cash. My original thought is that during such times, it's actually a good opportunity to buy stocks. Looking at the current market trends, the U.S. is really doing well, but despite our value-up programs and other initiatives, we still haven't seen much momentum. Although the market is rising, it hasn't been very strong or refreshing. In the foreign exchange market, even though the dollar is weakening, our exchange rate hasn't dropped significantly. This leads me to think that we are increasingly under the influence of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

It seems like we will be doing this quite a bit. Anyway, the rebound was better than in August, but it was still disappointing. I can summarize it like this: I think that ahead of the presidential election, the volatility will decrease somewhat. The sharp volatility we saw in early August was ultimately due to the significantly increased likelihood of Trump's election. His interviews with Businessweek and his controversial remarks had a huge impact on market participants, and during that process, stocks fell, and economic indicators worsened, causing everyone to flee. Then, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the Bank of Japan issuing a statement, things improved somewhat. However, the market is still under the influence of the presidential election, which is in early November. So, I will be honest about October: it's just that, in terms of their portfolios, they will have to manage what they have.

Rather than placing bets on specific assets, wouldn't it be better to maintain a neutral position? For example, if you adopt a growth or aggressive strategy and allocate about 50% of your total assets to stocks, it might be wiser not to bet on any particular asset but to follow the asset allocation ratio. The reason is that, according to election polls, we can't predict where things will go. Honestly, it seems that the presidency may be decided by a margin of just 10,000 or 20,000 votes in Pennsylvania or Georgia. Discussing whether Trump trading or Harris trading is better seems futile, as it's an uncertain election. If Harris wins, the market will likely soar; however, we must also consider the possibility of Trump winning. We should remember that we have never accurately predicted the results of a U.S. presidential election, even among experts in our country.

I think it would be comfortable to take a clean break and maintain a balanced position in the October market. In September, I strongly advocated buying gold, but now I feel that gold is in a bubble as it has risen too sharply recently. So, I consider gold to be neutral at this point. Overall, I honestly lack confidence. The U.S. stock market is almost at bubble levels, and while Korea is cheap, there isn't much momentum. Even when trying to bet on other currencies, there isn't much opportunity. So, throughout this year's market, I've been suggesting buying in the U.S. and China. China has potential for growth after hitting the bottom, and if sold at the right time, it can yield good returns. The U.S. looks favorable throughout the year, but even the U.S. experienced a crash in August.

If you look at it, you can see how intense Trump's nightmare is, especially considering the recent CBS interview with Defense Secretary Esper, where he was almost pressing the missile button towards Mexico. It was all chaos to prevent that from happening, and while it seems like he was just trying to sell that story, I don't think it's entirely false. However, if such a person, who is getting older and whose judgment is becoming more clouded, becomes president, we can't predict what will happen in the future. Investors and wealthy individuals dislike uncertainty. Therefore, I believe it's difficult to make bets right now, so I would suggest a neutral strategy. I hold both stocks and bonds, as well as some gold, in my portfolio. The reason I quit my job as a securities analyst at the end of 2018 was...

It was because of Trump. No matter how well you analyze the economic factors and indicators, one word from him, and back then, we had Twitter, right? If he made a reckless comment on Twitter, the stock market would collapse. Moreover, he would make a fuss about firing Chairman Powell, whom he had appointed himself, while Powell was reluctantly raising interest rates. Then, at the end of 2018, the stock market experienced a huge crash. Was the economy really that bad back then? I don't think so. The global economy wasn't that terrible at that time. But we go through such events, especially in 2019 when Abe died. Remember that Abe completely halted the export of semiconductor-related parts to our country? Now we are in a political era, and when the political era arrives, we need to be vigilant and consider many factors. We never know where a flood might occur, so we must prepare a good escape plan.

In this turbulent era, I believe the only way to navigate is to invest in a balanced manner. With that in mind, I would like to discuss the portfolio or strategy for October 2024. I want to emphasize that I don't know much about politics and that October is approaching. Thank you very much for your attention.

24년 10월, 지금 주목해야 할 ETF 투자전략

"환율의 미래"와 "프랑스 탐방기" 등 10여권의 책을 쓴, 이코노미스트 홍춘욱입니다. 25년 넘게 이코노미스트 일을 하면서, 반복되는 질문에 답하느라 힘들었는데.. 동영상을 통해 자주 묻는 질문에 대해 쉽게 답하고자 합니다.


*비지니스문의 : hong8706@us-all.co.kr
*강연 문의: https://c11.kr/19l7h


홍춘욱의 경제강의노트

트럼프의 당선 가능성이 높아진 8월의 급등락으로 인해 대선 전 변동성이 감소할 것으로 예상됩니다.

10월은 어려울 것으로 예상되지만 추석 연휴 이후에는 시장이 개선되는 경우가 많습니다.

미국의 양호한 실적에도 불구하고 국내 시장은 모멘텀을 확보하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있으며 다가오는 대선이 환율에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

시장 변동성과 다가오는 대통령 선거

시장 반등은 8월보다는 나아졌지만 트럼프 당선 가능성 증가로 변동성이 커지면서 여전히 실망스러운 모습을 보였습니다.

미연준의 금리 인하와 일본은행의 성명으로 다소 개선되었지만 시장은 11월에 있을 대선의 영향을 여전히 받고 있음니다.

대선 결과가 불확실한 만큼 특정 자산에 베팅하기보다는 포트폴리오 관리에서 중립적인 포지션을 유지하는 것이 현명할 수 있습니다.

10월 시장에서의 중립적 포지션 유지

이전에는 금을 옹호했지만 지금은 버블로 보고 10월 장에서 중립 포지션을 취하고 있습니다.

미국 주식시장은 거품 수준이고 한국은 저렴하지만 모멘텀이 부족하다고 판단하고 있습니다.

연사는 주식, 채권, 금을 혼합해 포트폴리오를 구성하는 중립 전략을 제안하며 특히 판단력이 흐려진 고령의 인물이 대통령이 될 가능성이 있는 등 향후 불확실성에 대한 우려를 표명했습니다.

트럼프의 조치가 경제에 미치는 영향

트럼프의 무모한 트위터 발언은 주식 시장에 큰 영향을 미쳤고, 2018년 말에는 큰 폭락으로 이어졌습니다.

혼란에도 불구하고 당시 글로벌 경제는 최악의 상황은 아니었습니다.

연사는 특히 2024년 10월 대선이 다가오는 상황에서 정치적 불확실성에 대한 경계와 균형 잡힌 투자 전략의 필요성을 강조합니다.