I believe that volatility will decrease ahead of the presidential election. The sharp volatility we saw in early August was largely due to the significantly increased possibility of Trump's election. Interviews with Business Week and his controversial remarks had a tremendous impact on market participants, leading to a flight from investments as gold prices soared and economic indicators worsened. To be honest, I will say that the month of October will be challenging. 

Hello, this is Dongchun from The Economist. As we are almost at the end of September, let's discuss the market for October. It has been tough. As we approach the end of September, things have improved a bit, but before the Chuseok holiday, our market was in complete disarray. It was very difficult. However, as has often been the case in the past, things tend to get better after Chuseok. There seems to be a jinx about it, so buying before Chuseok and then after the holiday...

There is a bit of a jinx about selling, and it seems that it happened again this time. However, the reason the market is not doing well before Chuseok is due to the burden of the long holiday and the many events that occurred. For example, on the last day of Chuseok, there was a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which made investors want to hold onto cash. My original thought is that during such times, it's actually a good opportunity to buy stocks. Looking at the current market trends, the U.S. is really doing well, but despite our value-up programs and other initiatives, we still haven't seen much momentum. Although the market is rising, it hasn't been very strong or refreshing. In the foreign exchange market, even though the dollar is weakening, our exchange rate hasn't dropped significantly. This leads me to think that we are increasingly under the influence of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

It seems like we will be doing this quite a bit. Anyway, the rebound was better than in August, but it was still disappointing. I can summarize it like this: I think that ahead of the presidential election, the volatility will decrease somewhat. The sharp volatility we saw in early August was ultimately due to the significantly increased likelihood of Trump's election. His interviews with Businessweek and his controversial remarks had a huge impact on market participants, and during that process, stocks fell, and economic indicators worsened, causing everyone to flee. Then, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the Bank of Japan issuing a statement, things improved somewhat. However, the market is still under the influence of the presidential election, which is in early November. So, I will be honest about October: it's just that, in terms of their portfolios, they will have to manage what they have.

Rather than placing bets on specific assets, wouldn't it be better to maintain a neutral position? For example, if you adopt a growth or aggressive strategy and allocate about 50% of your total assets to stocks, it might be wiser not to bet on any particular asset but to follow the asset allocation ratio. The reason is that, according to election polls, we can't predict where things will go. Honestly, it seems that the presidency may be decided by a margin of just 10,000 or 20,000 votes in Pennsylvania or Georgia. Discussing whether Trump trading or Harris trading is better seems futile, as it's an uncertain election. If Harris wins, the market will likely soar; however, we must also consider the possibility of Trump winning. We should remember that we have never accurately predicted the results of a U.S. presidential election, even among experts in our country.

I think it would be comfortable to take a clean break and maintain a balanced position in the October market. In September, I strongly advocated buying gold, but now I feel that gold is in a bubble as it has risen too sharply recently. So, I consider gold to be neutral at this point. Overall, I honestly lack confidence. The U.S. stock market is almost at bubble levels, and while Korea is cheap, there isn't much momentum. Even when trying to bet on other currencies, there isn't much opportunity. So, throughout this year's market, I've been suggesting buying in the U.S. and China. China has potential for growth after hitting the bottom, and if sold at the right time, it can yield good returns. The U.S. looks favorable throughout the year, but even the U.S. experienced a crash in August.

If you look at it, you can see how intense Trump's nightmare is, especially considering the recent CBS interview with Defense Secretary Esper, where he was almost pressing the missile button towards Mexico. It was all chaos to prevent that from happening, and while it seems like he was just trying to sell that story, I don't think it's entirely false. However, if such a person, who is getting older and whose judgment is becoming more clouded, becomes president, we can't predict what will happen in the future. Investors and wealthy individuals dislike uncertainty. Therefore, I believe it's difficult to make bets right now, so I would suggest a neutral strategy. I hold both stocks and bonds, as well as some gold, in my portfolio. The reason I quit my job as a securities analyst at the end of 2018 was...

It was because of Trump. No matter how well you analyze the economic factors and indicators, one word from him, and back then, we had Twitter, right? If he made a reckless comment on Twitter, the stock market would collapse. Moreover, he would make a fuss about firing Chairman Powell, whom he had appointed himself, while Powell was reluctantly raising interest rates. Then, at the end of 2018, the stock market experienced a huge crash. Was the economy really that bad back then? I don't think so. The global economy wasn't that terrible at that time. But we go through such events, especially in 2019 when Abe died. Remember that Abe completely halted the export of semiconductor-related parts to our country? Now we are in a political era, and when the political era arrives, we need to be vigilant and consider many factors. We never know where a flood might occur, so we must prepare a good escape plan.

In this turbulent era, I believe the only way to navigate is to invest in a balanced manner. With that in mind, I would like to discuss the portfolio or strategy for October 2024. I want to emphasize that I don't know much about politics and that October is approaching. Thank you very much for your attention.

24년 10월, 지금 주목해야 할 ETF 투자전략

"환율의 미래"와 "프랑스 탐방기" 등 10여권의 책을 쓴, 이코노미스트 홍춘욱입니다. 25년 넘게 이코노미스트 일을 하면서, 반복되는 질문에 답하느라 힘들었는데.. 동영상을 통해 자주 묻는 질문에 대해 쉽게 답하고자 합니다.


*비지니스문의 : hong8706@us-all.co.kr
*강연 문의: https://c11.kr/19l7h
