엘리자베스 워렌의 금리 인하 요구와 시장에 미치는 영향

### 다가오는 금리 인하와 시장에 미치는 영향: 심층 분석
* 📈 엘리자베스 워런 상원의원은 경기 침체 우려로 인한 **75bp 인하 가능성**에 중점을 두고 즉각적인 금리 인하를 주장하고 있어 시장의 논의를 촉발하고 있습니다.
* 🔔 이번 주는 암호화폐에 중요한 한 주가 될 것으로 예상되며, **FOMC 회의와 주요 인사들의 인터뷰 등 다양한 이벤트**가 예정되어 있어 시장 역학 관계에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.
* 💵 최근 S&P 500의 시가총액이 **1조 8천억 달러 증가**하며 **2024년 최고치**를 기록한 반면, 비트코인은 **6만 달러 선에서 고전**하고 있어 전통 자산과 디지털 자산의 대조적인 추세를 반영하고 있습니다.
* 📊 경제 지표의 변화와 정치적 압력으로 인해 **50bp 금리 인하 가능성이 63%**에 달한다는 예측이 나왔는데, 이는 기존 예상과 크게 달라진 수치입니다.
* 🌍 유럽과 아시아의 중앙은행도 공격적인 금리 인하를 고려하고 있어 **달러와 디지털 자산 시장에 추가적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 만큼 글로벌 영향은 분명**합니다.
* ⚖ 시장이 이러한 상황을 예상하는 가운데, 애널리스트들은 **50bp 인하는 근본적인 경제 약세의 신호**가 되어 시장 조정으로 이어질 수 있다는 우려를 표명하고 있습니다.
* 💬 이러한 금리 인하가 대중에게 어떻게 전달될지, 소형주 및 위험 자산에 미칠 잠재적 영향에 대한 논의와 함께 **금리 인하를 둘러싼 내러티브가 매우 중요**합니다.
* 🔍 다가오는 결정은 **투자자들이 인플레이션 데이터와 경제 전망의 복잡성**을 탐색하면서 시장 심리를 형성하고 향후 투자 전략의 무대를 마련할 가능성이 높습니다.

엘리자베스 워런 의원의 공격적인 금리 인하 요구는 잠재적인 경제 약세를 시사하며 시장 안정에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

[Music] [Music] [Music] Elizabeth Warren is all over the place now. She's asking for more rate cuts, and guess what? We've got a little bit of a Poly Market bet on this, so we'll break it all down for you guys. Don't miss it today. It's going to be a good one. My name is Paul Barr. Welcome back in Tech Path. This is our live show again. Thank you for stopping in. If you're here live, make sure and smash the like button right now. Just go ahead and hit that. It does help because it will start to let other people know that this is going on. If you haven't hit that little bell, you can do that as well so you get notified when we do these live streams. I do want to thank our sponsor today, and that's Coinbase. Go over if you're brand new to crypto and set up your own Coinbase account. You can do that just by visiting coinbase.com. The future of money is here. It is one of the

best and most trusted places out there for people and businesses to buy and sell a couple of things. Here is where you can go in there onto Coinbase, buy your first tokens. You can go into the Coinbase wallet, go into self-custody. It's a great ecosystem. Check it out, use our link, it's going to give you 200 bucks in crypto to get started. So, let's go over to a couple of points here I want to get into today, and one of those is really this week. So, this week I believe is going to be one of the biggest weeks in crypto for a variety of reasons, and you guys will understand. We're going to be covering a lot this week. We'll have the rate cuts going on, we'll have a handful of interviews on that. We also have a congressman coming on this week. I won't tell you who that is just yet, but we'll most likely get some regulatory directions. Then we have Breakpoint with Solana happening. Obviously, the FOMC meeting, which we will be live streaming.

on Wednesday as well, but right now, Fed rate C incoming S&P just shy, uh, 1% shy of its all-time high Tuesday. We'll see the retail sales. I think most likely we, this will be a big number, uh, that could be a corrective measure in the US economy. Wednesday, we'll get the decision, 63% chance of a 50 basis points, uh, rate cut. That's a pretty big jump. And then Thursday, we'll get the Bank of England and also Bank of Japan on their rate decisions, which could be pretty aggressive. So, be on the lookout for that. On more of a global front, the S&P 500 also added 1.8 trillion in market cap last week, posting its best week of 2024. Crazy numbers right now. This comes just days after the index added nearly five trillion in market cap between August 5th and the 30th. So, just this continued growth in a lot of these Topline Securities. And it's kind of interesting because we are still seeing Bitcoin struggle around that 60k mark. We

have not seen a lot of push Bitcoin, of course, trading down for many reasons. I think we'll get into some of those today. Other things that are playing into this, of course, is going to be this rate cut decision. Right now, the prediction markets are pricing in. This is actually behind times. I'll show you the full price, but the point is that the odds of a 50 basis points rate cut have gone from where it was about 2% to guess where it is right now, holding it at 53. So, a big jump up just over the last couple of days, obviously because of a few key things that happened, occurred. And one of the key things was this right here, Elizabeth Warren calling on Powell to immediately cut by 75 basis points due to a risk of recession. So, here's my question: What is it that Congress knows or what is it that the Fed knows that they're concerned that we've all of a sudden gone from a 25 basis point or even many people thought maybe a no cut?

In September to a 25, and now we're looking at 50, and possibly pushing into a 75. Is there something truly broken on the data that is starting to show up? That is my question, and that could cause a huge correction into the overall stock market, which could mean risk could get back into the Fair Trades. Here's Anthony Pompliano talking about this, and her letter to Jerome Powell becoming obvious that cheap capital is going to flood the market regardless of why and how it happens. Anytime we see cheap capital start to move their way in, sometimes that's good for the economy, but it's very bad for the dollar and good for digital assets. I think in general, the bigger factor here is where we see the dollar and how it plays out on the global stage, which gets around things like what's happening within the BRICS, obviously within a lot of these central banks that are already cutting rates right now, both in Europe and in Asia. I think we're going to continue to see a pretty heavy rate cut.

cycle in Europe and in Asia, which will have some effect on a global macro. Here, of course, is the odds of 50 basis points now are higher than the 25 basis after Warren's demand for an emergency 75 basis rate cut. I don't know if this is still playing in from a political side of things where this might be a narrative for the Democrats. It is possible there could be some political scenarios. I believe it's data that's coming in, whether it's retail sales, job numbers, or the potential of what they're seeing into the cycle going into the fourth quarter for retail. And if you follow car sales, you follow some of the bigger scenarios that are playing out in the American economy, people will start to say, Yeah, we're still slowing at a much, much more accelerated rate. I'll show you the inflation, true inflation data here in a second. By the way, like I said, hit the like button. We do these live streams. The next one, we're probably

going to do is on Wednesday with the FOMC. Let me know if you like those live streams, by the way. Just drop some comments down below and make sure to share this channel with some of the friends that you guys might have out there. And I'm going to start losing my voice, so I'm going to go to a clip real quick. Let's go to this clip, which is going to get into, is 25 basis points enough? We have seen Fed futures at least move up a little bit on the possibility of a 50 basis point cut. What do you think's behind that thinking? 25 is not enough. Maybe there is a little weakness that we're seeing. Might as well get started a little more quickly. I've heard a number of people say we're going to, you know, they're going to have to cut, you know, several times. Why not front-load it and get started earlier? There is also, though, something that worries me a little bit in that narrative, the notion that maybe the

economy is a little weaker than it appears, and this is an insurance policy. Um, you last time we talked, there was some discussion that you and I had about, well, GE, is the economy actually weaker than it appears. I fear that if they move 50 basis points, the notion that they know something that we don't know, as they say, I.E., the market, the economy is weaker than we think, will start to take hold. And I think that's, you know, not an accurate narrative. I don't know. I think it might be an accurate narrative. I think there is data that is going to give us some new indicators going into the end of the year. Um, this was another clip that was talking about the importance of the narrative and kind of how this cut is going to be, you know, presented to the market. Take a look. All right, so you say it's all about the messaging. So if it's about the messaging, does 25, 50, does that matter, or is it really what J. Powell says?

later for me. I think it's the 25 or 50. I think you could make a perfectly neat case for either one. The 50 could kind of be like a catch-up case, but the messaging that the summary of economic projections and the press conference, I think, will matter a lot more. It's so interesting to me to see the waffling on Wall Street with the analyst. I mean, it's crazy because the narrative in the past several weeks has all been 25, and then all of a sudden, just out of the blue, we're seeing a 50 and a push for 75 from Senator Warren. That just, what, does this make sense to you guys? Does this make sense? Here is Bloomberg talking about how this might bring in a small-cap revision because this could change things up because it could apply to more risk assets. Guess what that might be? That could be altcoins. That's a risk asset. Take a look, and we were watching the small caps just surge on Friday as

the renewed optimism about the 50 basis point cut came up as well, and look, I think small caps have a lot going for them, but the reality is that valuations are full, um, and positioning is also full. If you go back a few months ago, they looked under-owned, they looked cheap, we're just not there anymore, and now we've got a lot of Fed optimism baked in. So, I do think in the short term at least, if we're just thinking about the week ahead, I do worry a bit that if we get the 25 rather than the 50, which propelled small caps to these great heights on Friday, that there could be a bit of a reversion in the small caps. So, I think that small caps really need the needle to be threaded, and what I mean by that is if you go back and look at past cutting cycles, small caps do really, really well and embark on a longer-term outperformance cycle. If you get a recession, if you break the economy, it's small cap 101 to say you sell them.

On the way into a recession, you buy them on the way out, and you tend to see that pivot midway through. And if we're just, you know, kind of, I guess I think it comes down, Lisa, what do you mean by soft landing? A soft landing that's looking at like 1 and a 12% type GDP growth, maybe even two. I don't think that quite cuts it for small cap. I think you need something more like two and a half to 3% or better. Okay, so there are some narratives that are starting to play out here, and the real interesting thing to me is how the interest rate is going to be transmitted down to a lot of people who have parked their funds into money market accounts. And just think about that for a second because most people, I won't say you guys are, but a lot of people are lazy when they get into these investments. Once they start earning interest, you have to remember a lot of that money was not earning interest when we had these low interest environments.

and then all of a sudden, we started to see this clip up toward money market and a lot of movement out of the regional Banks. You guys remember that, right? Last year, a lot of movement out of regional Banks and into the big six. And that, I think, could start to play into this because this means a lot of money from guys like JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond, etc. Guess who is in cahoots there with Jamie Diamond? You've got Elizabeth Warren playing into this. So, a lot of narratives playing out right now. We're going to continue to watch this because I think the rate cut is going to be a key thing for how this Market plays out, especially in Q4. I want to get over to the true inflation real quick. By the way, if you're not in our Diamond circle, make sure and get in. This is where you guys can go. We just go to Paul B Network. We actually do a market update over there that is exclusive for our members only. I do like a couple

times a week. It only goes out on email. Make sure and sign up for that. We always leave a link down below. If you take a look at what's happening here with true inflation, this is a good example right here. I mean, look at this. We have not seen these kinds of numbers in a very long time. That's the one year right now, and this is accelerating. Look at the acceleration since June, which we were sitting at a 268, and it had started edging up. And this is true inflation, not traditional inflation, but true inflation. 268, almost three since June. And then this just teared down over the last four months. So this gets me back into the point of, has the economy slowed so much that they're going to need to create a catalyst to move it into the next layer of growth, which would affect GDP, which is what that last clip was talking about. And I think those are the things that we have to consider because this will have a chilling effect potentially on the stock market. Fear and greed speaking.

of that fear and greed right now about 39. Very, I would say, very lukewarm at best. However, we have seen some spikes both with it and in and around it, but it definitely is not what we saw last month, which was extreme fear at 25. So, I don't know if you guys follow in on that. We'll get to some questions today. I see you guys have a bunch here in the comments, so we'll try to get to as many of those as we can. I'll take a look at the charts as well. I think there was some people talking about some tokens. We'll go into that. I want to get over to this article right here. Short-term Panic for Bitcoin. This is coming either on the upcoming Fed rate cut or there are some other probabilities here. But one of the notes that we in this, let me kind of zoom in on this for you guys. According to the expert, when Panic Peaks, chaos will provide investors a chance to buy more Bitcoin. But for now, it's holding.

Longs and spots. He also further warned that investors to watch out for scam Wix. These are, you know, how they work, these big UPS or these big Downs, noting crypto asset might experience some pretty big manipulations during this period. And they're talking that they further about that. They advise investors to worry more about surviving the incoming short-term Panic rather than predicting its next move. So how are you holding your position, whether it's in crypto or in some other diversified assets? Let me know, drop some comments down below, especially if you're catching this after the live stream. How are you guys playing this? Because we could see a very explosive Market one way or the other depending on how this rate cut is perceived by the market. Further things that, and this is where perception is everything, look at this. Bitcoin, of course, is up with Trump's close call in Florida, and this influenced bitcoin's price, we think. And of course, this was because of the potential where the

almost had another assassination attempt, but the incident comes two months after the previous Pennsylvania rout. They don't really talk about that. It's interesting they don't use the term. The incident has set up ripples through the prediction markets, and the cryptocurrency space has adjusted down. Obviously, we saw Bitcoin, but I think bitcoin's move is just more traditional Bitcoin moves than what we're seeing here. So, other things in here, if you look at the after the first assassination, this coming over from decit, but point they were making is after the first assassination attempt, Sana's meme coin, TRP, some of the Trump memes absolutely skyrocketed. And versus in contrast now, it's down over the past little bit here with this situation. Realistically, though, the event should have been a catalyst for an influx of buy-side volume, yet no one was interested. So, I don't know, that's the other thing that I think plays into this. Has this election season just started to wear on investors, and they really don't care who wins? Is that where we are now?

In crypto, if that is the case and you don't care who wins, hit a comment down below, or if you're still on one side or the other, let me know who that is, drop it in the comments below. A couple of other points I want to hit on right here, and that is this right here. This is Jeremy Allaire. This is the CEO of Circle, most likely going to be a public company here in not too long, and they're thrilled to be collaborating with Sony's blockchain efforts, making USDC a central part of what we believe will be a consumer-scale ecosystem. More, this is talking about all the efforts in Japan to continue to their efforts around Web 3 and the innovation of blockchain companies and innovation that is happening in Asia and guess what, not happening here in the US. So again, we continue to lose around all these scenarios while the rest of the world seems to be doing just fine on all of this. Let's get into the charts real

quick. I want to take a look at, uh, by the way, did you guys see that SOI video we did last week? It was on the SOI versus Lana and not bad movement on SOI over that period of time, uh, still showing up on our MSI indicator right now, showing positive sentiment going forward. Let me go over and I'm going to drop that while we get to some questions. Let's go to the poll real quick and then we'll jump into, uh, Bitcoin real quick. What will the First Rate cut be, 25, 50, or Elizabeth? So everybody's still pushing on the 25. Okay, so you like the 25 as a whole. So nobody interesting. So right now, Poly Market is wrong according to our audience. So we'll see how that plays out going forward, uh, let's get into a few questions here. David Crockett says, When interest rates get low, ETH will dominate such, uh, so much money currently in Stables earnings interest. Yes, that is true, and we could see some more yield, uh, increase with that if we see, and this is something we talked

about in the crypto pit today is that money movement. Think the banks benefit from this, and you think about the directive from Senator Warren here. I think the banks benefit from this long-term because, as I said, a lot of people who are in those money markets are just happy to be earning anything in many cases because they're usually, they're not risk investors, and they definitely don't look at crypto completely. But if we start to see pressure on downward trend in these interest rates, does it get some of those more savvy investors to say, You know what, I'm going to take my 5% and decide to go into the yield markets with that? That would immediately affect what's happening in crypto. All right, James says, Paul, how are you? What's your take on drift protocol? Interesting you asked that. I bought some of the drift protocol not too long ago. I've been kind of going up and down on it, so I'm back and forth. We should probably do more analysis on it.

but I do own it. I will say that right now. Um, whether I sell it is the question because it's just a trade for me. I'm not really, you know, it's not one of those passion projects. Uh, what's your take on the crcoin? We don't really do much with, uh, with that token. A lot of these exchange tokens, we just don't. We don't play with. All roads lead to Boomers. Um, well, I think you're talking about, I hope you're not referencing me because I'm in Gen X, but I think you're talking about the reference in how Boomers invest, and you're right. A lot of that money and liquid that is either sitting on the sidelines right now trying to figure out where they go or looking for an exit off of these high-security, uh, SNP, or are they looking for an alternative in diversification, possibly going into some other markets. You've got gold in the play. You've got real estate possibly coming back in. There's a lot going in there. Warren just

uh, trying to pump her backs. Maybe I doubt it. Uh, we could see no cuts or even a rise. I don't think so. I think we're going to see a cut for sure. Hard landing if it's a 75. If it's a 75, I agree. That means that something is wrong, and uh, they know it. That would, I think, that would give a very negative uh, indicator to the markets. Uh, Senator Warren in trouble of losing her seat to John Deon. Uh, this is why she's pushing for a 75. No, I don't think that has anything to do with it. This is more of a position to help the bankers. I think we'll see a 150 cuts uh, in January. I'm thinking that's what you're saying. Make XRP move again. Um, we'll see if Warren is calling for it. Absolutely the wrong thing to do. I would agree with you. I think it is the wrong thing to do. I think 75 is just too aggressive based on where we are, right?

now and the fact that we don't necessarily have a ton of analysis of where this trailing data is coming in, and that's going to be jobs, retail sales, and businesses. Now granted, if you lower rates, it does give capital to businesses. Low access to capital is good for businesses. It does stimulate the economy and often jobs, so that can be a factor that I would say is still in the place. If you look at Bitcoin right now, this is the, and I'm using two indicators right now, one is our MSI indicator, and the other is the Lux algo strength indicators. And right now, still showing a downtrend on Bitcoin, so we could see Bitcoin continue to slide a little bit further. If you take a look at Solana, because Solana courses this week, we will be doing coverage on breakpoint. Solana also right now still on the slide. We may see it come back down into the 120s in that range. Right now, it's in a big order block right now with a lot of negative sentiment, and right now both trailing

and also these signals um not coming in very positively on Salana, so maybe this early week is still waiting for Wednesday as a catalyst going forward. A couple of other questions coming in. Seth says, Do we pump or dump on Wednesday? is the million-dollar question. Well, it's all going to depend on what we get. If we hit the quarter, the market will be settled. If we get a 50, that could change perspectives of where the market goes. Could be people going off the sideline for a short period of time and possibly reassessing some risk assets, or we could see a complete divestiture out of the uh S&P. Uh, that would be way too big. Yeah, that would signal panic. I agree with you, Dedra. Uh, that would be signaling panic if we get to that 75. And what's amazing to me is that these are smart people. You would think they're congressmen, senators, and yet they're asking for these kinds of things. And I mean, economics 101 is going to give you a cycle in which you're being able to deal.

with this unless you're seeing data that you're not necessarily letting out into the public. That's the other question that I always wonder: is there nefarious, you know, actions happening behind the scenes? I don't know. These are the kind of things, but listen, Wednesday we will be there, and we will be here for you guys. We will be doing a live stream for you. We'll look at Mr. Pal's comments after. We'll know Wednesday morning what the rate cut is going to be, if there is in fact a quarter or 50. And we'll also get a framework of where Pal is going to be going into the fall. And I think that's very important because that's when we're going to start to see the real data show up. And I think that's what sets up 2025 in a good way, maybe for crypto, of how this is going to play out for us in the rest of this bull run. If you guys are not part of the Diamond Circle, as I said earlier, get in. We always leave a link down below. It's

very easy to catch, and of course, follow me on X. It's just Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Tech Path. [Music]

Elizabeth Warren Demands Explosive Rate Cut ️‍🔥 Crypto Market Update LIVE🔴

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엘리자베스 워렌의 금리 인하 요구와 그 영향

엘리자베스 워런 상원의원이 즉각적인 금리 인하를 주장하면서 시장 전망에 큰 변화가 일고 있습니다.

이번 주는 FOMC 회의와 규제 당국 인터뷰와 같은 주요 이벤트가 예정되어 있어 암호화폐에 중요한 한 주입니다.

S&P 500 지수는 큰 폭의 상승세를 보인 반면 비트코인은 6만 달러를 돌파하지 못함에 따라 연준의 금리 인하 결정을 이끈 근본적인 우려에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

데이터 및 시장 조정에 대한 우려

데이터에 따르면 기준금리가 25에서 50으로, 그리고 75 베이시스 포인트 인하될 가능성이 있는 것으로 나타나면서 주식 시장의 조정 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

값싼 자본이 시장에 넘쳐날 것으로 예상되며, 이는 달러화에는 해가 될 수 있지만 디지털 자산에는 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

유럽과 아시아의 금리 인하와 미국의 경제 지표 둔화는 경기 둔화가 가속화될 수 있음을 시사합니다.

연방준비제도 금리 인하가 경제와 스몰캡에 미치는 영향

경제가 생각보다 약세를 보이면서 연방준비제도의 50bp 금리 인하 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

경제 전망 요약과 기자회견 등 연준의 메시지가 시장의 인식을 형성하는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 예상됩니다.

금리 인하에 대한 낙관론이 다시 고개를 들면서 소형주가 급등했지만, 밸류에이션과 포지셔닝이 이미 꽉 차 있어 인하 폭이 예상보다 작을 경우 반락할 수 있다는 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

연사는 경기침체와 관련된 투자 타이밍에 대해 논의하며, 소형주를 위한 더 강력한 GDP 성장의 필요성을 강조합니다.

또한 지역 은행에서 대형 기관으로의 자금 이동과 금리 인하가 시장에 미칠 수 있는 잠재적 영향을 강조합니다.

또한 실질 인플레이션의 가속화와 이것이 경제와 주식 시장에 미칠 잠재적 영향에 대해서도 언급합니다.

현재 시장 심리와 비트코인의 단기 전망

공포와 탐욕 지수는 현재 39로 미지근한 시장 심리를 나타내며, 지난달의 극심한 공포였던 25보다 개선되었습니다.

전문가들은 다가오는 사건으로 인해 비트코인이 단기적으로 패닉에 빠질 수 있다고 경고하며 투자자들에게 시장의 다음 움직임을 예측하기보다는 혼란에서 살아남는 데 집중하라고 조언합니다.

비트코인 가격은 최근 정치적 사건의 영향을 받았지만, 이러한 사건 이후 예상했던 매수세 유입이 실현되지 않아 투자자들의 관심에 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

서클과 소니의 협업, 그리고 글로벌 블록체인 환경

서클의 CEO인 제레미 알레어는 소니의 블록체인 노력과 협력하여 USDC를 소비자 규모의 생태계의 중심으로 만드는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

0과 블록체인 혁신에 대한 관심은 미국의 더딘 발전과 대조를 이룹니다.

이번 토론에서는 저금리가 이더리움 지배력에 미칠 수 있는 잠재적 영향과 투자자들의 수익률 시장으로의 이동이 암호화폐 환경에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 점을 논의했습니다.

발표자는 토큰을 소유하고 있지만 토큰에 대한 열정이 없어 토큰을 판매할지 확신이 서지 않습니다.

그들은 부머 투자자들이 시장에 미치는 영향과 금과 부동산으로의 전환 가능성에 대해 논의합니다.

발표자는 1월에 금리 인하를 예상하고 이것이 경제를 활성화할 수 있다고 믿으며 비트코인과 솔라나의 가격 하락 추세를 분석합니다.

수요일의 촉매제를 앞둔 시장의 불확실성

살라나의 신호는 긍정적이지 않으며 시장은 수요일 발표를 기다리고 있습니다.

금리 결정의 결과는 수치에 따라 시장을 안정시키거나 패닉을 일으킬 수 있습니다.

수요일 라이브 스트림에서는 금리 인하와 금리 인하가 하락에 미칠 잠재적 영향, 그리고 2025년을 향한 암호화폐 시장의 궤적에 대한 통찰력을 제공할 것입니다.