Let me tell you a story. Long, long ago, I was a naive freshman heading into high school. Possibilities were endless. I

could do so much. I could learn so many new things. And as a freshman, they gave us two decisions: if we took advanced

math or not, and what language we took. Now, I seriously contemplated this. Chinese and Spanish out the window – definitely not Chinese. I took that for a

year, almost wanted to shoot myself. So those two were gone. And French, while it seemed fun, you know, French people are

staying on this Earth, so I figured that it, in reality, it would come down to two languages: Latin and German.

Now, it was a toss-up. It was close for a while. I was leaning towards Latin, definitely, but the German teacher did

give an impassioned speech about why we should learn German.  "German is a massive country in the EU; there's a lot

of business in it; it's a very culturally rich area; and it's pretty much the center of Europe." It supplanted France...

Is that so? I decided I'm going to betray my intuition, which told me to take Latin because it's useful for everything

else. I'm gonna betray my intuition; I'm gonna take German. I'm going to take German as my language. Immediately that teacher

left. It was replaced with a new one. He was weird. He left next year. A new German teacher, and now I quit German, ran

the other way, abandoned it, got as far out of that place as possible. But I've been indoctrinated by the Germans for

three years – not not the way you're not the way you're thinking; different, different type of indoctrination – and I

have a great respect for the German culture. I, I love Germans. I think they're great, and I think there's a bunch of

great stuff about them. One of the best things about them is their politics. Uh, Germany has one of the most interesting

Political systems, uh, some of the most interesting parties. Um, very weird, very weird country. Um, basically, to summarize the system,

there's two versions: there's the old 2021 version and there's the new version that's going to be employed, likely

around February of next year. So that's right there; that's probably going to be the next major election we see in Canada.

The government might collapse, though. It looks like Trudeau's standing firm, so probably Germany will hold the next

election after their cabinet completely collapsed. Uh, so that's going to be late February. So this is the old system. What

happens is you have a bunch of these constituencies. People vote for a party; whoever gets the most votes wins them.

But then what happens is you also vote for a party nationally. So there's only so many constituencies—about 300—and

in the entire—it's like the U.S. House—but in the entire thing, there's about 700 seats. It fluctuates; insane

system. But what happens is then you vote nationally, or in—in your pro—it's basically nationally. They add up all the

uh, party votes, because these are for candidates, these are for parties. They add them up; they allocate them equally.

Now, the problem is sometimes, you know, let's assume the CDU—they have a real—or the SPD have a really good night, which

they're not going to—and they win every constituency by one vote and they get like 25% of the popular

vote, because so many parties—they have a bunch of constituencies—but that's not representative of 20% of the vote. So

what happens is here they only get 20% of the vote; the other parties get 80%.

They bump up the number of seats in the chamber in total so that it's proportional. So what happens

You get very weird seat counts, like 736. Now the new system is different; you have those same single-member constituencies

and you have the national party. But if a party is over-represented in this, um, system to the point where they're winning

more seats than their national vote share even commands, then they forfeit the closest seats. It's capped at 650 now.

This map is different, uh, and if I were to do that, then I would have to go in to

hear, uh, I'd have to edit this; I'd have to change the values for all these things, and you

know that really that preciseness doesn't seem necessary. So what we're going to do is mainly just show what the party's stand on

where they're going to do good here. Um, I'm not going to fill out all the list seats, but I will say we have a model here, uh,

from Irish Patriot, different, uh, than the last guy, Charlestin—I still don't know his name. Both of them are great; it's just Irish

Patriot doesn't follow me back, so I'm I'm very I'm very sad about that.

Um, but still, this is a great map. Um, he's he's he's a much, much smarter person

than I. So, basically, this is around where you would expect the parties to do well, uh, so it is a pretty big change, uh,

from 2021. You can see the ruling SPD; while they did great in East Germany, at least the northern area, and they did

okay in some of the, uh, more urban areas in, uh, West Germany, they're completely locked out now. They do get a few, uh,

overall seats from this, uh, list seat system, because they are getting a somewhat significant, uh, 14% of the

vote. Still not great, so they do fine for themselves; um, just they're winning the seats they're winning narrowly.

Um, but it's definitely not as big as this, and it's not enough to get really anywhere close to forming a governing

majority. We'll get to that. Then we also got the CDU/CSU. Now, the—it's the

CDU; it's the main one. The CSU is just Bavaria. Politics are weird, so basically they act as one party. Um, I

don't think they contest any of the seats like the CDU doesn't contest Bavaria, and the CSU doesn't uh contest

anywhere else. Now, while the SPD is a liberal party, um, that's more secular, the uh—I think it's Christian Democratic

Union. I did not pronounce that right once again; not that great at German, but I think translated to English it's the

Christian Democratic Union. Um, what it is is it's a somewhat religious party, um, actually more extreme on the religion

issue than any other party, that's including the AfD. So most of their uh moral policies are based in religion.

They are also somewhat conservative, though they're not like—they're not um what you would call far-right; they're not really that

populist. They're more establishmentarian. Uh, it's kind of like if Mitt Romney, maybe a little bit better

on the issues, Mitt Romney walked around in Congress just thumping his Bible all the time. That's basically the CDU and

CSU. So they're projected to increase their share a lot, and that's where the system comes into play. They win 236

districts, but they have to forfeit seven of them because they're over the overall percentage. It's—it's basically just you

you vote nationally and you get that percent of seats, except you do have the opportunity for local representation.

It's a stupid system, I know. I'm not Chancellor. I—I would—I would make Germany so much better if I were

The Chancellor is basically saying that all of that extra red, and we'll get to the green as well, all of it just snapped into oblivion; it's gone. They win all these seats,

and while they don't win them with, like, 80% of the vote, which would enable them to get a commanding majority, they

still do get 31% of the vote, so they get a big amount of the seats. Then we got

the Greens. The Greens suffer the most in this. The Greens, they win some constituencies sometimes, like they're

they're a major party; they're not like the US Greens. They're not even like some of the Greens in Canada, which win two

seats and they're like, 'Yay, we won! We won two seats!' They're not like that. They're

actually a serious party. They're further to the left than the SPD, more secular. The list system does kind of

enable them, and the SPD—I mean, they're pretty far left by US standards, but they're not as far left

as the Greens. So they kind of get to exist. Then, uh, so this is where my knowledge kind of blanks. The FDP,

I think—correct me if I'm wrong—they're another pretty left-wing party. They don't really win any of the

regional constituencies, but the list system does help them out. Now we get to the AfD. Now, the AfD was fifth

in Germany in 2021. They comprised some of the seats, and they definitely won more single

constituency seats than the fourth and even, I think, the Greens, but they didn't get that big of a percent of the

vote. Why? Because they're mostly confined to East Germany. The AfD is a more populist, more secular version of the CDU.

Slightly more, uh, right-wing on the issues, uh, they still aren't like far, far right. Uh, their leader is a lesbian, all...

The people calling them Nazis, like, I'm sorry, was Hitler really... I can't say that on

YouTube. Was Hitler really...harassing...? Um, just ponder that. So the AfD really isn't that far right; they just are more

right-wing, and because they're more secular, they do much better in the more secular East German area. It's just there

have been some allegations of Nazi ties. I believe that they're 100% fake. This is my personal favorite party, and if you're

in Germany, obviously, if the F...if the AfD isn't running a candidate in your constituency,

vote CDU, uh, if you agree with me on the issues. But if the AfD is running, especially if you live in Eastern

Germany, I'd say vote AfD. Um, the AfD is pretty good on most of the issues, uh, and

they stand up for their constituents, but they do distinguish themselves well from the Christian Democratic party, uh, by being more secular, more populist; you might call them Trumpian,

um, not completely Trumpian, but still somewhat that way. And they usually...I forget what this province is

called. Let me actually...this is...this is how you...I think it's Saxony. I got

it confused with Saarland, which is over here. Um, they usually do good in Saxony and then Thuringia, uh, but otherwise they're kind of

just a regional party. They do do good in the list seats, but here they're really...they're just taking over all of Eastern

Germany, because that is the split. Western Germany is more establishmentarian, you could say, uh, it's also much more

Christian, so the CDU appeals there, and the AfD appeals more to the atheist East...suffered harshly under...

communism. You get it, so they're doing good in Mecklenburg, uh, Brandenburg. Which Mecklenburg is interesting because that's a

county of North Carolina. Brandenburg and even Berlin, they're not quite getting too much in Berlin. That's kind of the

only place where the Greens exist, and there are CDU, CSU, and you can see once again, like a lot of Eastern European

states, it is split among the Cold War borders. You see West Berlin is much more CDU, well the East is more open to the

AfD. So Die Linke—sorry, I pronounced that like a Dinka—are also another left-wing party. Like, they're not as green as the Greens,

just kind of like left-wing. Uh, a lot of this is just like my parents voted for Die Linke, so

I'm a Linke voter. So a lot of them are just more leftist parties, and SSW—please don't ask, I don't

I don't know who the hell they are. I assume there's just one guy who's uh, SS

voters. So that that sounds—that sounds like an actual Nazi, the SS voters' association. I assume it's just some

random guy. Um, but the election's probably going to end up looking something like this: uh, the CDU will...

This is rough because I am not going to fill out every constituency. I did it with Canada because there was actually

German Federal Election Prediction - Conservative RESURGANCE!

TesterIsDone

개인적인 일화와 독일 정치에 대한 소개

화자는 라틴어와 독일어 중 하나를 선택해야 했던 고등학교 시절의 경험을 이야기합니다.

고급 수학 및 언어 선택과 관련된 의사 결정 과정을 설명합니다.

그들은 중국어와 스페인어를 탈락시키고 결국 선생님의 설득력 있는 주장에 따라 독일어를 선택했습니다.

연사는 독일 정치 시스템의 복잡성에 대해 관심을 표명합니다.

독일 선거제도에는 구 선거제도(2021년)와 신 선거제도(2월경 시행 예정)의 두 가지 버전이 존재한다고 언급하고 있습니다.

구 독일과 신 독일 선거 제도에 대한 설명

선거구 투표와 전국 정당 투표를 포함하는 기존 시스템에 대한 설명으로, 불균형적인 의석 배분으로 이어집니다.

이전 시스템에서 비례성을 보장하기 위해 좌석 수를 조정하여 비정상적으로 높은 좌석 수를 초래한 방법에 대한 설명입니다.

650석 상한선과 정당의 과대 대표성 문제를 해결하기 위한 메커니즘을 포함하는 새로운 시스템에 대한 설명입니다.

선거구에서 전국 득표율을 초과하여 승리한 정당은 의석을 상실하게 됩니다.

모델을 기반으로 다양한 당사자의 예상 실적을 분석하여 2021년부터 상당한 변화를 보여줍니다.

집권 사민당의 하락세가 예상되고 의석수 증가가 제한될 것으로 예상됩니다.

새로운 제도로 인한 CDU/CSU의 예상 의석 증가 및 의석 상실 분석.

녹색당의 성과와 정치적 스펙트럼 내에서 녹색당의 입장에 대해 논의합니다.

AfD의 지역 집중도 및 예상 득표율 분석과 함께 그들의 정치적 이념과 나치 연계 의혹에 대해 논의합니다.

다이링크와 SSW에 대한 간략한 개요.

선거 결과 예측 및 연합 시나리오

동독에서 AfD가 강세를 보이는 가운데 대부분의 지역에서 CDU/CSU가 싹쓸이할 것으로 예측됩니다.

과반수 의석에 필요한 의석 수와 연립정부 구성의 어려움에 대해 논의합니다.

기민당/기사연합이 사민당과 협력할 가능성, 녹색당 또는 기타 군소 정당과 협력할 가능성 등 잠재적 연정 시나리오를 분석합니다.

과반수 의석에 도달하지 못할 경우의 잠재적 결과에 대해 논의하고, CDU/CSU가 AfD와 연립정부를 구성할 가능성도 논의합니다.

발표자는 시청자에게 채널 구독을 권장합니다.

캐나다, 위스콘신, 프랑스 및 기타 국가에서 예정된 선거에 대해 언급합니다.

채널 멤버십과 그 혜택에 대한 홍보

German Federal Election Prediction - Conservative RESURGANCE!

German Federal Election Prediction - Conservative RESURGANCE!

스크립트