I believe that in Seoul, apartments around 20 pyeong will become the most desirable size. For example, in the case of the Licents apartments, the 20 pyeong units are less than 5% available. This means that very few were built in the past, and it seems that not many are being constructed now either, which contributes to their rarity. 

Now, regarding the prices: the 20 pyeong units are around 2.2 billion won, the 30 pyeong units have transactions at about 2.6 billion won, and the 40 pyeong units are priced at 3.5 billion won. If you look closely, the price per unit for the 20 pyeong apartments is the highest. Unless unexpected factors like the Black Swan event arise, if the market continues to show an upward trend for the next year or two, I can imagine that people without homes are feeling quite anxious and think they need to buy quickly, especially with the talk of increasing loan rates.

Can you give me some advice on this? It's good to buy quickly, but I don't think it's wise to just follow what others are doing, as that can lead to panic buying. If you ask people who invest in real estate, they will tell you not to listen to just anyone; instead, consult those who are actually investing. They tend to know best. So, rather than asking real estate agents, you can just ask people who are actively investing. They will provide valuable insights. 

It's important to note that not all areas increase in value at the same time. For example, Gangnam rises first, followed by regions like Mayongseong, and then it goes in a sequence with new constructions, semi-new constructions, and older buildings. So right now...

For those who have invested a lot or have been looking at real estate for a long time, it feels like we are still at the very beginning. If that’s the case, buying a new apartment in Banpo-dong is really the best option for those with significant financial resources, as it is the product with the least risk. It’s a good idea to pursue that, but honestly, we don’t know how much prices will rise. However, it seems that the good upward trend hasn’t really started yet. There are areas that are next in line for development, and while new constructions are rising, many older buildings in Gangnam are not seeing any price increases. Selecting such areas and proactively investing when prices begin to rise is advisable. However, I think it will be difficult for those without housing to make a purchase. They are already aware of the price levels from earlier this year, and because they know those prices, many recent consultations I’ve had with non-homeowners have resulted in them almost giving up.

They have passed away. In the past, I used to tell people to just go ahead and have children, but these days, I think differently. I only share the necessary words. However, I’ve noticed that many people are giving up, which I find quite unfortunate. Rather than giving up because prices have risen too much, it would be better to change neighborhoods and move to a place that is still affordable according to my budget. But when I try to do that, my heart just doesn't go along with it. I can't make that decision at all. It feels like I could have bought something just a month ago, but now it feels different. So, I think it’s okay to stretch a bit if needed. For instance, if someone changes from a jeonse (lease) to monthly rent and invests the remaining amount, I believe the location is important. Therefore, the location and the type of building...

I believe that the same applies to me. Of course, you're looking for new constructions and constantly visiting them, but even new constructions will become older after about ten years. So, the areas you have been hearing about for a long time are probably the same ones you heard about 20 or 30 years ago. Therefore, the location is crucial. The apartments in Sanwon could eventually change from old to new, right? In Seoul, only about 42% to 43% of people live in apartments. It's the third lowest in the country. So, where are the other areas? They are Jeju and Jeonnam, where you will find very few apartments. Excluding such areas, Seoul has the fewest apartments. This means that older apartments can eventually become new constructions as well. It might be a bit ambiguous to consider something as old after about 20 years, but it would be good to look for places where prices are not rising. You keep looking at new constructions, and then there's Banpo-dong in Gangnam.

If you think about it, you won't be able to buy a house with 5 billion won, right? In fact, ultimately, even older buildings can be newly constructed. If the price of new constructions continues to rise, the older buildings will also become viable for development. Considering this, it's important to make more rational judgments rather than just emotional ones. 

Now, let me ask you about something I received recently. Someone was planning to make a switch, intending to sell their current home before buying a new one. However, the buyer said they wouldn’t sell, which left them unexpectedly without a home. There are many people looking to make this switch right now, but they are afraid of the selling and buying process. They worry about missing out if they sell first and then buy. How should we approach this? Generally, it is true that you need to sell before buying, but...

You have to do it at the same time. Recently, the number of people transferring from Gangseo to Mapo has increased the most. The area where we conduct the most transactions is the Gangseo branch. Since it's closer, many people have moved to Mapo. Some have already seen increases of about 300 to 400 million won. So, you need to act quickly. However, one of our agents sold but couldn't buy. Now, nearly six months have passed, and they still haven't been able to buy. So, if you sell, you must buy quickly. That is the key point. If you can't do that, it might not be easy. Even if I mention this, properties that used to be around 1.5 billion won are now close to 2 billion won in Mapo. It will be quite challenging to proceed like that, but it’s still advisable to do so, considering the price range.

In recent times, it seems that the most common cases involved people upgrading from properties worth around 900 million to 1 billion, and then to the 1.5 billion range. Many individuals have been transitioning to areas like Junsang-gukji and Mayongseong. This has been the best option because, recently, there have been special provisions for newlyweds, and new developments have emerged. Consequently, transactions in properties below that price range have been relatively active. It appears that many people have been making these transitions.

However, the approach to upgrading for those in their 20s and 30s differs from that of those in their 60s. For individuals in their 20s and 30s, it is essential to have a well-thought-out plan. As mentioned earlier, it is not advisable to overextend oneself. Typically, they might consider increasing their loan amount by about 200 to 300 million. They should also plan their resources effectively, and recently...

There was someone I consulted with in Jung-gu, and I suggested that they switch to Seongdong-gu. The reason I mentioned that is because it's close; Jung-gu and Seongdong-gu are adjacent to each other. Especially, our famous Sindang-dong, known for its tteokbokki, is almost right next to Seongdong-gu. So, this person lived there, and I advised them to just move over. The reason is that their children are still young, and it wouldn't be good for them to go too far away. So, I guided them that way.

For those in their 40s and 50s, I recommend pushing themselves to the maximum. Even if it means switching two levels, I encourage them to go for it. The reason is that if they don't take this opportunity now, they might not get another chance. There are actually people who have done this. Recently, someone sold their house in Pyeongchon and moved to Gangnam, which is almost a two-level switch.

When I asked how they did it, they mentioned that they reduced their lease from jeonse to monthly rent, and in places like Pyeongchon, the monthly rent can reach around 1 million won. There are quite a few apartments like that. If the apartment is old, both the monthly rent and the jeonse price tend to be lower. So, it's really about making smart choices. They are moving towards Gangnam, and since they are engaging in gap investment, they said that made it possible. I think it's important not to overextend yourself when investing. After all, people in their 40s and 50s are at a stage where they can maximize their profits. It’s better to approach it with that mindset regarding personal assets. Nowadays, even people in their 40s and 50s continue to work, and many extend their careers into their 60s. So, I often recommend that. Among those in their 60s and 70s, there are some who are eager to buy more, but I strongly advise against that and suggest reducing the number of properties instead.

Yes, rather than accumulating assets, it's better to have liquidity and hold a lot of cash. You can also consider things like reverse mortgages, and you shouldn't think about passing everything down to your children. Many people are moving towards downsizing. However, I suggest you stay in the same area. If you are living in a 30-pyeong (approximately 99 square meters) house, moving to a 20-pyeong (approximately 66 square meters) can be a bit tiring. But for two elderly people, living in a 20-pyeong space is more than enough. I advise them to live like that. If you move too far out or to the outskirts, everyone eventually returns. My friends have all experienced this, so I think it's necessary to consider alternatives rather than going too far or to the outskirts. Now, regarding the good conditions you've mentioned, are there any specific things to be cautious about during this time? For instance, what types of houses should be avoided?

You need to be careful; otherwise, in contrast, you should be cautious in such areas where prices have skyrocketed. It would be good to receive advice like that. In areas that are not very good, particularly older buildings, you need to be careful. Especially in regions that are not favorable and have a small number of units, you should be cautious. Recently, the methods we have been sending are focusing more on liquidity rather than profitability, so it is advisable to invest with an emphasis on liquidity. I would say that even if transactions occur in the future, it is unlikely that we will see over 10,000 transactions in Seoul as we did in 2021. Back then, there were actual users, investors, multiple homeowners, and corporations involved in the investments. However, it will be difficult to see such activity in the future, so we won't be able to see as many transactions as in the past.

Since the transaction is not happening, we need to focus on the golden ratio. Large complexes are indeed preferred. So, if we put out elite apartments for a short time, they almost sell immediately. And if you look at the buyers, there are different price ranges. Still, there are urgent sales, and even now, there are people listing 30-pyeong apartments for around 2.8 billion to 3 billion won. However, the price can vary slightly depending on the floor and orientation, so you should choose appropriately. Therefore, you definitely need to go for large complexes. Large complexes have good community facilities, so you must go for them. The next thing to be really cautious about is that if you buy in non-core areas of the provinces, you might find it difficult to sell later. These days, buying just because it's cheap might not be the best strategy in the long run.

Many people seem to be pondering whether they can afford it or not. The official price is 100 million won, which you should absolutely avoid. I think the biggest problem is that people end up buying something mediocre while just searching for items that fit their budget. Recently, there was a brief discussion about 25-pyeong apartments, but now there's also talk about 33-pyeong national housing. With the increasing number of single-person households, some argue that it might be better to buy a smaller apartment in a good neighborhood rather than a 30-pyeong unit, which seems meaningless. However, there are also counterarguments that the per capita area is continuously expanding. What do you think, professor? 

Yes, I believe it varies by region, but in Seoul, I think 20-pyeong will become the most desirable size. So, the national standard...

It's not that this is the most important thing, but you should consider where the highest values are. For example, if I look at the Resents apartments, the 20-pyeong units are around 5%. So, they were built very little in the past. In fact, 20-pyeong units are still being built in limited numbers. This creates a scarcity. Now, if I talk about the prices of Resents, the 20-pyeong units are around 2.2 billion won, and the 25-pyeong units are about 2.4 billion won. I'm not sure about the specifics, but that's the price. Currently, the 30-pyeong units have transactions around 2.6 billion won, and I heard that some have been sold for 2.7 billion won, although I believe the official transaction prices haven't been updated yet. The 40-pyeong units are around 3.5 billion won. If you look closely, the price per pyeong is the highest for the 20-pyeong units. Once you move beyond the 30-pyeong units, you can get in with just 400 million won more.

In the case of 30-pyeong apartments, if you want to move to 40-pyeong, you need about 800 million won. So, it's important to think carefully about how the current prices are formed. It's great to live in a 30-pyeong apartment; living in a 40-pyeong is even better, and a 50-pyeong would make you even happier. However, there are issues that arise as the price per unit decreases. If I don't have enough money, I can't afford to buy such a place. 

Therefore, the price per unit for 20-pyeong apartments will likely be the highest. But if you go down to 10-pyeong, the price decreases again. For a 10-pyeong one-room apartment, the demand's elasticity significantly drops. Even for newlyweds, living in a 10-pyeong apartment can be quite difficult. So, 20-pyeong apartments will become the product with the highest price per unit. However, in regional areas, 30-pyeong and 40-pyeong apartments are more common.

It will be good because the price per unit is not that high. For example, local residents prefer it this way, so they like to buy apartments in the 30, 40, and 50-pyeong range. However, what I am talking about is that in places like Seoul, where the unit prices are around 50 million to 60 million won, if you look at the unit prices of the apartments you want to buy, the 20-pyeong type has the highest price. So, of course, when you're considering investing now, the difference between the 20-pyeong and 30-pyeong types isn't that significant, and the 30-pyeong could appreciate more. However, the unit price of the 20-pyeong type is the highest, so buying that is the best option. If you compare them and see that the 20-pyeong type is significantly...

There is no difference, right? If that's the case, it's definitely better to purchase a unit in the 20-pyeong range. In the end, it will be much better for liquidity. So, what I'm saying is not just about a single building with 20-pyeong units, but rather a large complex with around 5,000 units, like the Cheongna 5560 complex, if I remember correctly. In such large complexes, 20-pyeong units have very good liquidity; they sell easily. So, it's better to choose such products. 

We have been talking about real estate continuously, but there are many people who feel uneasy about real estate investment. This is because, after all, a decline in population is a planned event, and considering various factors, especially those in provincial areas, they have a lot of concerns. So, while they have successfully built their assets through real estate until now, ultimately...

Many people wonder if they should go with something different. But, what do you think, professor? Given the structure in our country, do you believe that real estate has a better probability, or should we consider other options as well? I think it’s important to make the right investment for oneself. Regardless, it seems like investing is necessary. When I talk to friends, I realize that income levels vary significantly. Some of my friends earn quite well, while others do not. However, asset levels don’t differ as much based on that. There are people who confuse income with assets, and it can lead to misunderstandings. Later on, when I say I have assets worth 5 billion won, it includes everything like my house, savings, stocks, and so on. All of these together make up the total assets I have.

We talk about money, but wealthy friends don’t necessarily have high incomes. Therefore, it's good to continue investing. I think it suited me because I have been in a stable job for a long time. In some ways, we need to pay a lot of attention to stocks and check them frequently, but I don’t think I could have done that. So, I focused on real estate. I used to be a professor in a real estate department, which is why I went that route. It’s good to invest in a way that suits you, but it's also important to have a solid foundation. Even so, diversification is beneficial. I also invest in domestic stocks and bonds. Of course, the way I do it might be different from how others do it. As I mentioned earlier, I continuously monitor my investments.

I can't do it now, and I only have one stock. I have quite a few of that stock, about 20,000 or 30,000 shares. Yes, I have been accumulating it little by little. So, I don't worry too much about it; later, when I need it, I can sell it bit by bit. I think that's the right approach. Recently, it seems that bonds are also coming out as ETF products. Originally, bonds have a maturity date and fixed interest rates, and they are being transformed into products that are easy for individual investors to invest in. So, you can choose suitable options, like a proper tranche. This is possible, and while diversifying, you should consider maintaining a certain balance between liquidity and safety. Many people in our country hold a lot of real estate, which is different from other investments.

I don't have any assets, just a house, so that's the situation. Young people might not feel the same way. As for cryptocurrencies or gold, I don't know much about them. However, I believe that assets with scarcity are good. There are indeed cryptocurrencies that have scarcity. If you ask about them, I think those products are acceptable. But the volatility is likely much greater than that of stocks or bonds, and even more so compared to real estate. If you can endure that volatility, I think it's fine to invest a little bit at a time, like 100 million or 200 million won. Of course, if someone has hundreds of millions, they can invest 100 million or 200 million without issues. But if that's not the case, starting with a few hundred thousand and gradually increasing it seems good to me. In any case, relying on just one product is problematic, and diversifying your investments is a good strategy.

I also have Brazilian bonds, so it's not bad to diversify. However, it's good to have a main stock. It's better to gradually increase your investments in things you don't know. I think that's all you need to consider. That's right. Ultimately, there are many people in their 20s and 30s who want to get rich within five or ten years, but life is long. Even if you become wealthy in your 50s or 60s, there will still be plenty of time afterwards. You shouldn't be too anxious. People in their 20s and 30s will live to be around 120 years old, so they should approach life that way. However, I see many people in their 20s and 30s who are trying to make a quick win. They often say that life is about taking chances, but it's not just one chance; there will be several opportunities. So, I don't think there's a need to rush. Now, finally, as we move into the second half of the year...

Many people are currently watching videos about buying real estate, and there are a lot of individuals who are just starting to look around. As a result, there’s a psychological aspect to consider because when you actually go and see properties, you might end up buying something without even realizing it. I think it would be good to offer some advice. 

One thing I often heard when investing is that real estate has an owner. So, if you go to a property and feel like it’s not right for you, it might actually not be the right fit for you at all. There are so many properties out there, especially when it comes to housing. So, don’t get too anxious. The buyer is always in a better position. Even in a seller's market, that is just a very small part of the overall market, while most areas are generally in favor of the buyers.

You don't need to feel too anxious about buying, as you can do so anytime. However, real estate has its advantages. Even if you make the worst investment, if you hold onto it steadily, it will truly appreciate over time. For example, the product I referred to as elite was likely purchased at its peak in 2007, costing around 900 million won for the apartment size. On the other hand, the worst time to buy was probably in 2022, when it was priced at 1.9 billion won. So, you can see that it more than doubled in value. Therefore, it's good to invest with that mindset. In our premium room, we have created an app that allows you to track the standard prices and see how much they increase each week, as young people particularly enjoy that feature.

Yes, that's not it. Real estate is, after all, a necessity. Whether you own a home or not, you inevitably have to participate in the housing market. Recently, statistics have shown that people living in rental properties are spending the most. So, rather than just renting, it would be better to consider leasehold or purchase options. It's best to have at least one essential property. In the U.S., the first step in asset management is to acquire your own home, and that's clearly stated. So, I think it's good to keep that in mind. Many well-known fund managers also suggest that you should secure at least one home before investing in stocks. The very act of contemplating whether to buy or not in this essential area is quite a challenging endeavor. That's right. We have been joined by Professor Shin Myung-seok from IAU, discussing the recent changes in real estate.

We talked about the market atmosphere and also discussed how the market is expected to move in the second half of the year. I would like to express my gratitude for taking the time to watch this. Now, I will say goodbye to the professor. Thank you for being here today. Yes, thank you.

"확실하게 말씀드리겠습니다" 30평대 아파트 사면 안되는 이유 [심형석 교수 3부]

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