터키 리라화의 위태로운 상황과 정치적 발언이 미치는 영향

### 터키의 경제 과제와 외교 정책 고려 사항
* 📉 터키 리라화는 최근 정치적 발언으로 인해 경제에 대한 우려가 악화되면서 **달러 대비 가치가 하락**하고 있습니다.
* 🇹🇷 에르도안 대통령이 리제에서 **터키가 다양한 글로벌 분쟁에 개입**하고 강화해야 한다고 강조한 발언은 경제적 영향에 대한 의문을 불러일으켰습니다.
* 💰 2018년과 2024년의 경제 상황을 비교하면 **부채는 1조 리라에서 7조 8천억 리라로 증가**했고, **인플레이션은 1200%를 넘었으며 실업률은 25%에 달하는 등 심각한 도전 과제**를 확인할 수 있습니다.
* 🤔 연사는 **2018년 앤드류 브런슨 목사의 구속으로 리라화가 53% 하락한 '브랜슨 쇼크'**를 언급하며 경제에 해를 끼칠 수 있는 공격적인 외교 정책에 대해 경고합니다.
* 🏗 비용이 많이 드는 해외 개입에 앞서 **국내 경제 안정을 우선시해야 한다**는 주장이 제기되고 있습니다.
* 🌍 터키의 현재 경제 및 군사적 한계를 고려하여 **보다 균형 잡힌 외교 정책 접근 방식**을 제안합니다.
* 🇵🇸 연사는 이스라엘-팔레스타인 분쟁에서 터키의 현재 외교 정책의 효과성에 의문을 제기하며 **보다 중립적인 자세가 더 유리할 수 있다**고 제안합니다.
* 🤝 연사는 국내외 요인을 모두 고려한 '더 스마트한 정책'의 필요성을 강조하면서 **현재의 추세가 지속될 경우 경제에 부정적인 결과**를 초래할 수 있다고 경고합니다.

터키의 공격적인 외교 정책은 경제를 약화시키고 불안정성과 투자자의 신뢰를 위험에 빠뜨려 국민의 생계와 국가의 글로벌 영향력에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

I greet all our viewers with respect. Dear friends, is the rise of the dollar against the Turkish lira reaching critical levels only due to the economy? When we look at our recent history, I see the shock of 2018, and when I look at the new statements of politicians, I sadly observe that the new shock is slowly starting. What I mean is, of course, when we look at the statements made by the President in Rize, he mentioned that Turkey needs to strengthen, enter Libya, Karabakh, and Israel. Of course, no one can oppose Turkey's strengthening. What could be a more natural desire than this? And when Turkey is strong, it should intervene wherever there is persecution against Muslims, whether in Myanmar, the Middle East, Bosnia, etc. This is the most natural right. Now, let's consider this, is Turkey currently at this level of power? Does Turkey have aircraft carriers? Is Turkey's reserve full to the brim? Is Turkey in the Pacific, in the Atlantic?

When we talk about whether it alone is powerful enough to show up in the Adriatic Sea and defeat the European and American navies, we need to move forward at this point, friends. Yes, what the President said is true, we need to strengthen, but look, there is a crossroads here. While strengthening, we need to reach a stronger economy that will make us strong. Will statements like this worsen the economy or serve this great purpose? I think it won't, friends. When I look at this statement made in Rize, I see a new Branson shock, friends. So, what is the Branson shock for our friends who may not know? Let me briefly summarize. In 2016, an evangelical priest who had been living in Izmir for 20 years was prosecuted against Branson, who had committed a crime against the state. It was 2016, if I remember correctly, Branson was issued a deportation order, but then, within the scope of investigations, Branson was caught and arrested based on the statement of a secret witness. Now, he was caught.

After being detained, of course, it caused a great stir in America because Americans are also devout people of their own religion and did not accept their priest being held in captivity in Turkey. Well, letters came from dozens of senators. Two of them, even Lindsey Graham, a very famous Senator, jumped in and came. In 2018, he met with the president and letters were written from Congress here. They said, Let our priest go, and such, but our government did not back down here, and even the president, I remember it clearly, said, Give us the priest. He proposed an exchange like Let's give the priest. After that, Americans slowly started to increase the pressure. There was the Hakan Atilla case, the Foundation Bank, Halkbank, it was postponed, then they played the F35 card, and finally, where did the issue come to, friends? Because it had caused a great stir in America, Vice President Mike Pence and President Trump started to make sanction announcements one after another. Pence, for example, said, I have a message on behalf of President Trump to President Erdogan and the Turkish government: Release Pastor Andrew Brunson immediately or face the consequences.

Get ready to fold. The shock of Pence's statements, saying that the U.S. will impose some economic sanctions on Turkey, hasn't passed yet, my friends. Trump said the following via Twitter: The U.S. will impose extensive sanctions on Turkey due to the prolonged detention of Pastor Branson, a great Christian family man and a great person. Now, my friends, this country, which in the 1920s held seven empires at bay, Turkey, and the Turkish people, will not bow to anyone. But when you throw a stone, it should also scare the frog you're aiming at. Either they will come and invade your country, or they will break the honor of your country, or they will harm your citizens. It has to be such a big incident that yes, 85 million people rise up and resist all kinds of sanctions. Remember Cyprus in '74? What happened in Cyprus? We went to Cyprus, we saved our kinsmen there, but tremendous sanctions came. In fact, the biggest propaganda of the AKP supporters, the oil queues and gas queues, were based on the Turkish army's conquest of Cyprus. Therefore,

We are not a nation that is afraid, but I will say it again: the stone you throw will startle the frog. What happened in 2018, let me tell you, the exchange rate was 470 dollars per Turkish lira, and it went up by 53% just because of one pastor. If you say Turkey needs to strengthen, first and foremost, you need to be smart. When Turkey is going through a delicate situation, when the Turkish economy is on a knife-edge, what do statements like this do? They lead the Turkish economy to even greater troubles, that's what. My fear is that today messages have started to go back and forth with Israel. Now, heading towards a new crisis, when you directly confront both Israel and America, how will the Turkish economy be affected by this? I'm not saying that giving up on protecting the rights of the oppressed or bowing down to the oppressor. The Turkish people do not bow down to the oppressor, but isn't it also crucial why the 85 million Turkish citizens are being spent or economically put in a difficult situation? Look, you are already representing a flag in the world by protecting the Palestinians; how wonderful is that. All

We watch it with love on behalf of the oppressed. But when you suddenly take it to war, we went to Karabakh, we went to Libya, we went to Israel, what happens now when you say this and cannot do it, Turkey loses its specific weight, my friends. Entering Karabakh, Libya, and Israel are very different. The point here is, when you cannot do this job, as I said just now, you lose your specific weight. Today, you are waiting for the United States to give you F16s. Are you going there with F16s? Look at the tanks, we need German tanks, Leopards, new generation tanks. So, we are trying to do a whole parade. Therefore, here we will consider the inventory, we will consider the economy. Of course, we will not give up protecting the rights of the oppressed, but we will also think about the homeland. Do you know why? Look, in 2018, I say the Branson shock increased the dollar by 53%. Let's compare 2024 with 2018. In 2018, the debt was 1 trillion, now it is 7.8 trillion. In 2018, while paying 70 billion debts, now you are paying 574 billion liras. In 2018,

You had a budget deficit of 72 billion lira, Ken, now you are running a deficit of 747 billion lira. In 2018, inflation was really 120%. Ken, now it has exceeded 1200%, the official figure was in the 70s. In 2018, the unemployment rate was 111%, Ken, now it is 25%. While you had reserves of over 150 billion dollars in 2018, now you have reached the limit, accumulating 20 billion dollars with usurious interest rates. Look at the country's economic situation; it is in a much worse state than in 2018. When you promise something you cannot do, when you reveal it, how will you attract foreign capital to this country? You will scare away the foreign capital that will come to establish factories and buy government bonds and stocks. When you scare away this capital, the inflation that you expect to drop to 50 in the fall, even to 45, will not go down there; look, even the numbers in the 40s and 50s are a heavy burden on the people. This burden will increase even more, and on top of that, you won't be able to keep your promise to enter that country. Naturally, you will first look at yourselves, think, and weigh; look, here is what awaits you.

Let me give you a concrete example; there is a family next door, and someone has come and beaten up Mazlum, a member of that family. However, this family has 22 relatives, just like there are 22 Arab states. None of them say, We will interfere with Israel, enter and exit. Turkey does more than these, but does it become bad? No, it doesn't become bad, I say. But without considering the 85 million citizens of this country and the fragile economy of the country, without having sufficient power in terms of military, political, and economic aspects, when you say, I will stand against a superpower, and when you cannot do that, you cannot solve the problems in that region, you cannot help those oppressed people there. In the end, with its aggressive policy, Turkey cannot even help Palestine. It would have been better if Turkey remained neutral. If Turkey had maintained its neutrality and imposed its specific weight on Israel and Palestine, we could have reduced the casualties there. We had such a chance, but the more aggressive we are, the less Israel and Palestine actually want us. I say Palestine does not want us. Do you know they invited Mahmoud Abbas here to speak, but he did not come? Why didn't he come? Because

Mahmut Abbas is considering this, saying that if the President is doing this in Rize, it is highly likely that there is a statement related to domestic politics here, in other words, it is necessary to talk about tea prices in Rize. When you say this, are you trying to make the people of Rize forget about tea, to make the general public forget about inflation, price hikes, and taxes? This raises a question mark in people's minds. Naturally, here, you should also do what you say, when you cannot do it, that specific weight is lost, and the economy, which is currently not capable of doing it, will lose its strength. I compared it to 2018, which was a weaker economy back then. What could be the result? If you engage in a duel with both sides on Twitter, if this escalates further, if others get involved, what will happen? What will happen to this exchange rate that you are trying to hold onto by a thread? Will it be much better for our unemployed, our industrialists, and our workers? War, my friends, will not happen, it should not happen, war is out of the question, but even mentioning it will undermine investor confidence in this country. Therefore, what we say, we must also do.

As a country, you lose your weight over time, you cannot provide a solution, you shouldn't be so aggressive, you shouldn't take sides. Secondly, the way to help there, as we said, is to have influence over both states, and we say there are 22 Arab States, let them go first. Then, when Turkey strengthens, it will do what is necessary anyway. But look, you need to strengthen first. Therefore, when your muscles are weak, you cannot fight with a bodybuilder or a boxer, you cannot argue. We must not forget this. Consequently, my friends, here, we need to follow a much smarter policy, one that considers our own children first and then thinks about the oppressed abroad. The poverty line is 62,000 lira, the hunger line is 20,776 lira, inflation will go up, now let's see if foreign capital will try to come at the same speed. I always have the same crazy questions in my mind, and I hope this issue will not escalate, and a new Branson shock will not occur. Thank you for watching me. I offer my respects again.

Dolarda Yeni Brunson %50 Şoku Geliyor!

Avrasya Yatırım

정치적 성명이 터키 리라화에 미치는 영향

터키 리라화 대비 달러화 상승은 최근 터키의 글로벌 입지 강화에 대한 정치적 발언의 영향을 받고 있습니다.

군사 개입과 군사력 확장에 대한 언급으로 터키의 경제 안정에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

이러한 상황은 2016년의 브랜슨 쇼크와 유사하여 경제에 미칠 잠재적 영향에 대한 우려를 불러일으키고 있습니다.

터키의 앤드류 브런슨 목사 구금에 대한 미국의 대응

터키에서 앤드류 브런슨 목사가 억류되자 미국에서는 큰 소동이 일어났고, 상원의원들의 압력이 이어져 결국 마이크 펜스 부통령과 트럼프 대통령이 개입하게 되었습니다.

미국 정부는 터키에 대한 경제 제재를 위협했고, 양국은 팽팽한 대치를 이어갔습니다.

이 사건은 터키 정부와 국민들의 강력한 반발을 불러일으켰고, 잠재적인 갈등 확대로 이어졌습니다.

지정학적 결정이 터키 경제에 미치는 영향

이스라엘과 미국과의 지정학적 긴장이 터키 경제에 미칠 영향에 대한 우려를 불러일으키고 있습니다.

대통령은 미묘한 경제 상황에서 현명한 의사 결정의 필요성을 강조하며 국가의 재정 안정성에 대한 우려를 표명했습니다.

또한 군사적 행동과 증가하는 국가 부채에 대한 논의가 이루어지고 있으며, 지정학적 개입과 경제적 고려의 균형을 맞추는 것이 중요하다는 점을 강조하고 있습니다.

터키의 경제 및 정치 상황 악화

터키의 재정 적자는 720억 리라에서 747억 리라로 급격히 증가했으며 인플레이션은 1200%를 넘어섰습니다.

실업률도 25%로 상승했으며 외환보유고는 크게 감소했습니다.

공격적인 정치적 입장은 국가의 평판과 억압받는 사람들을 돕는 능력에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있으며, 이는 국제적 지지의 감소로 이어지고 있습니다.

라이즈의 국내 정치 및 경제적 영향에 대한 우려

마흐무트 압바스 대통령은 리제에서 차값에 집중하는 것이 더 큰 경제 문제에 주의를 분산시키는 잠재적 영향에 대해 의문을 제기하고 있습니다.

트위터의 잠재적 결투 속에서 투자자의 신뢰를 유지하고 환율을 처리할 수 있는 국가의 능력에 대한 우려가 있습니다.

내부 빈곤과 인플레이션을 해결하기 위해 국가의 힘을 우선시하고 현명한 정책 결정을 내리는 것이 중요하다는 점이 강조되고 있습니다.