터키 경제: 핫머니, 인플레이션, 시장 동향

### 터키의 경제 전망 인플레이션, 금리 및 시장 동향
* 💸 3월 선거 이후 터키 자산의 달러화 기준 수익률은 **주식 시장에서 1116%**, **민간 부문 채권에서 116%**를 기록했습니다.
* 📉 터키 리라화는 소폭 절하되었지만 **3월 이후 누적 인플레이션을 밑돌고 있어 사실상 절상된 상태**입니다.
* 🔥 외국인 투자자들이 채권을 매도하기 시작하면서 **터키로의 핫머니 유입이 중단**되었습니다.
* 📊 뱅가드는 **인플레이션이 하락할 경우 핫머니의 2차 유입 가능성**이 있다고 예측합니다.
* 📈 골드만 삭스와 JP 모건은 **9월 또는 10월에 금리 인하**를 예상하고 있으며, 이는 다양한 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 🏦 가란티 은행의 견조한 재무제표 실적은 **주식 시장에서 은행 부문을 뒷받침**했습니다.
* 📉 인플레이션은 여전히 주요 관심사로 남아 있으며, **압둘라 키기와 같은 비즈니스 리더들**은 물가에 미치는 영향을 강조하고 있습니다.
* 🌐 연방준비제도의 예상 금리 인하와 지정학적 긴장 등 글로벌 요인이 **금과 은 가격에 계속 영향을 미치고 있습니다.**

터키로 유입된 핫머니는 향후 금리 인하에 대한 기대감으로 주식 시장과 채권 가격이 크게 상승했습니다.

We have a customer from America whose bag is full of dollars. After the local elections following the March elections, there was a significant inflow of hot money into Turkey, meaning a short-term foreign capital inflow, especially in April and May. This led to a significant increase in the stock market and bonds during that period. From the March elections until now, you can see that Turkish assets have yielded returns in dollars by 1116% in the stock market and 116% in private sector bonds. Not bad at all. Now, the stock market is stagnant. There has been some depreciation in the Turkish Lira, but the depreciation in the Turkish Lira is actually well below the cumulative inflation from March, meaning the Turkish Lira has actually appreciated. How did this happen? Of course, it happened with the influx of hot money into Turkey. As I mentioned, there was a significant inflow of hot money into Turkey, but now in July, the hot money inflow has come to a halt. In fact, there has been an exit from bonds. We saw the data from last week; there were sales in bonds, foreigners started to sell. Now, in the upcoming period, there will be hot money influx again.

A Vanguard fund, one of the largest funds in the world, says that if inflation decreases, the second wave of hot money inflow to Turkey will start, and this will be the new major event in the upcoming period in Turkish markets. The new major event will be the decrease in inflation. When talking about the decrease in inflation, what he means is not a decrease in annual inflation due to base effects, but a decrease in monthly inflation. We will learn about June's inflation on Monday. As you know, the inflation announced at the beginning of July was below expectations, below 2%. Of course, I am talking about Turkish inflation, and it seemed like what this Vanguard manager said was happening as he wished. But on Monday, at the beginning of next week, we will likely see that July's inflation is still very high. This is highly likely because of Reuters' survey.

You see, the expectation is that monthly inflation, which fell below 2% last month, even approaching 1.5%, will rise again by 3.5%. Because at the beginning of July, you know, consecutive price increases due to special consumption tax came, which caused inflation to rise again in July. So, what was expected, what was desired, will not happen this month. We will look at the months ahead. By the way, starting from Wednesday, I resumed the 20.30 videos. Regular viewers may have noticed, I mentioned it before. I also took a short break on Monday and Tuesday at the beginning of the week, and now we have resumed the videos where we left off. On Monday, we will evaluate the inflation together. Inflation just doesn't drop, and Abdullah Kıı, you know, is one of the leading businessmen in Turkey's textile industry. Actually, his father established the family company. Now, the second generation is continuing. By the way, I have shared company stories; I will continue with weekend stories where I left off. And Abdullah Kıı, inflation is...

He is very complaining about not being able to fall in any way, this complaint is really amusing in its first part because Abdullah Klı is complaining about this. He used to go to the restaurants at Zorlu Center 2-3 days a week, but now he can't go because the prices have increased a lot. Let's move on from this, but he is complaining about the significant increase in suit prices, and he is very right about this. He says, We used to sell suits for 500 liras before. Now, the cheapest suit is between 3,000 and 5,000 liras. Many people cannot afford this. The situation is not good; inflation needs to decrease so that the Central Bank can start interest rate cuts. Additionally, Golden Sachs, which is an American bank, predicted that interest rate cuts would start in September. The representative of Goldman Sachs says, Clemens Grape thinks that the cuts will start in September. When we say September, it is only 2 months away. We will see if the Central Bank will start the cuts. But it's not just Goldman Sachs; JP Morgan, which is also one of the largest banks in America, its Turkey president Mustafa Bağrı openly stated that it won't be in September.

In October, it is believed that interest rate cuts will begin. If interest rate cuts start, we will see prices picking up again in markets, especially real estate and second-hand cars, which are currently stagnant. However, if the Central Bank continues with high interest rates for a long time, or even if they do not cut interest rates at all this year, and wait a few more months until 2020, then we will again see a further deepening of the real decline in prices in these markets. So, in the upcoming period, let's look at where the Turkish economy is heading; on the one hand, towards hot money, and secondly, inflation, as you can see, linked to the dollar. By the way, today it exceeded 33 again, currently at 33.13 in the interbank market. It suddenly accelerated today; we also see that it exceeded 33 in the Grand Bazaar and in the free market. Today, we were able to sell the dollar for 33.01 in the free market, and our euro selling price is 35.75 in the bazaar, and our buying price is 35.87. Let's move on to gold; we saw very sharp movements last week as it approached $2,500 an ounce, then it made a tremendous...

A winter realization came, it dropped below $2400, but as it drops, I mentioned that it would go down there and whenever there is such a sharp drop, buying always comes from the bottom. The direction of gold is upwards, the common opinion in the market. In the upcoming period, it is expected that the Federal Reserve, the American Central Bank, will start cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue in the world, there are wars, central banks continue to buy gold. That's why when it drops like this, gold continues its path from where it left off, I said. Today, we see this once again, it reached $2423. Because today, after I published the video, the Federal Reserve, the American Central Bank, will announce the interest rate decision, and a dovish decision is expected to be announced, and it is expected that Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, will also give dovish messages at the press conference today. Because the latest data came exactly as expected in America. In fact, some of them came below expectations. After this, there is a strong expectation in the market that interest rate cuts will begin in September. And today, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will confirm this caused gold to rise today, but not only this.

Today, gold is moving upwards. There is also a geopolitical development. In Tehran, the capital of Iran, Hamas's political leader Haniyye carried out an attack. Following this, concerns arose about a possible hot conflict between Israel and Iran again. In the meantime, Israel had also attacked Lebanon. There are concerns about sparking a war between Hezbollah and Israel. During such periods of concern, we know that there is a demand for gold and silver as safe havens. This is also one of the factors pushing up the price of gold today. In the closed market, the price of a gram of gold has again risen above 2,600 Turkish Liras as the price of gold goes up. Of course, as the dollar rises, we can buy a gram of gold today for 2,622 liras, and our selling price is approaching 2,600 liras for an ounce of gold. Silver had a sharp drop last week. Today, it again approached the threshold of 29 dollars, but at one point, as you know, it reached up to 32 dollars per ounce. There were critics under last week's video saying silver is rising, you said it will rise, look what happened. Silver is falling, they said. But remember, commodities are not like stocks.

These are not evaluated. Long-term instruments need to be looked at in the long term direction. When we look at the long-term direction, we see that both silver and gold have significantly benefited investors from the beginning of the year until today. In fact, there are already comments in the world media that there is currently a rally in gold and silver. I share the same opinion, and before the decision of the FED, there is also an increase in futures trading on American stock exchanges. By the way, yesterday Microsoft's balance sheet came a bit below expectations. Cloud revenues were below expectations. Currently, while I am recording this video, there is a decline in futures trading. This week, there are very critical balance sheets in America. Tomorrow, Meta, which I am correcting, Facebook's parent company Meta, will announce after the market closes today. After that, Apple and Amazon will announce their balance sheets tomorrow. If they exceed expectations, it will be beneficial for the American stock exchanges, but if they fall below expectations, it may have a negative impact like last week when Google and Tesla fell below expectations. However, the most critical balance sheet will be at the end of August for the American stock exchanges.

Nvidia's balance sheet to be announced. If Nvidia beats expectations again, the rally can continue. But if it falls below expectations for the first time in a while, we may see a significant drop. As you know in the American stock markets, as regular viewers of this channel know, in your investment account at Midas, one of the sponsors of this channel, you can invest with a transaction cost of $1.5 for these shares. In Turkey, Midas is under the supervision of the CMB (Capital Markets Board), and in America, the institutions it collaborates with are under the supervision of the relevant authorities. You can find the link to open a Midas investment account under the video description to invest. Let's move on to our stock market. The market continues to decline. Today, foreign markets were good, but it did not affect us. We started at 1065 today with a decrease of 0.31%. Yesterday, it had broken below 10,700 and the assassination of Haniye increased regional risks, bringing selling pressure to the market. It started negatively, reached the highest at 10,703 during the day, struggling to go above 10,700, and

At the low, it saw 10,560, closed at 10,638 - banks at 0.50%, industry at 0.28% down, but behind the positive of banks, there is the issue of Garanti Bank. Its balance sheet was good today. Other bank balances are coming in bad. Akbank had a bad start to the week. Yapı Kredi's profit is down by 38% compared to last year. It was also bad today, but Garanti Bank increased its profit by 22% in the second quarter, exceeding surprise expectations. At one point, its increase reached up to 56%, so Garanti's good performance today also supported the banks. It even prevented the market from falling further today. Also, HSBC's purchases in the afternoon were remarkable today. If it wasn't for HSBC's purchases, the market had dropped to around 10,565 by noon. Most likely, it would have gone down to 10,000. Borsa Istanbul was very negative in the morning, but then it recovered its losses. Here you see the largest buyer, HSP, with more than 2 billion 100 million Turkish lira. Bank of America also had more than 792 million Turkish lira. So, foreigners bought more today. İş Yatırım sold more than 1 billion 114 million Turkish lira today. Traders also sold 1 billion Turkish lira.

HSBC Garanti had more than one sale. THY Pegasus bought a new plane, and İş Yatırım sold Aselsan, Petkim, and Yapı Kredi to Garanti. Tacirler sold THY, Garanti, TAV, B Maş, and Coach Holding today. Now, at 10,700, there is a very critical point here. The stock exchange has its 50-day average, and since December 26th of last year, it has a support point from the rising trend. Throughout the day, if the stock exchange cannot move above this point, it is not advisable to be too optimistic. The support is at 15.00. Today, world stock exchanges were good, as I mentioned earlier, but it did not affect us. Now, the Fed's decision tonight will most likely not have a significant impact on us or the world stock exchanges tomorrow. Positive shares today were Garanti, Sasa, Kontrolmatik, Altınay, Yiğit Akü, Onur Teknoloji, Katmerciler, and Lojistik. Pacific Teknoloji, SDT, and Uzay also reached their peaks. On the other hand, Yeot Teknoloji and Efor Çay were negatively diverging. Once again, in situations like this, you know that Transportation and Tourism are negatively affected. The same goes for insurance.

In events like the Haniye assassination, it is negatively affected, but today insurance is the best sector because it dropped a lot in a few days. Last week, Turkey's insurance balance sheet was very bad, and after that, there were declines. Today, the public made a big purchase in the Turkish insurance, which also had a positive impact on other insurance shares, making insurance the best sector today. Besides Turkish Airlines, Akbank, Aselsan, Fonet, Petkim, Koç, Koza, Altın, Sabancı, Pegasus, Agrot, Mia Technology, Arçelik announced their balance sheets today, revealing a loss of 400 million lira in the second quarter, which had a negative impact. Fener approached 7% decrease, and Astor, which had money inflow today, includes shares like Garanti, Tüpraş, Edi, Bimaş, Sasa, Telekom, Pegasus, İşbank, Yapı Kredi Bankası, Altınay. Those with money outflow are Turkish Airlines, Arçelik, Akbank, Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola, Cooch Holding, Enerjisa, Emlak GYO, Efes, Halkbank, and Fonet. I will be here again at 8:30 in the evenings. See you tomorrow.

Dolar 33.10'u geçti | Borsa düştü ama yabancı hisse topladı | Altın yükseliyor

Barış Soydan

핫머니 유입이 터키 경제에 미치는 영향

3월 터키 총선 이후 핫머니가 대거 유입되어 주식 시장과 채권 가격이 크게 상승했습니다.

터키 자산은 달러로 높은 수익을 냈고, 핫머니 유입으로 인해 터키 리라화가 실제로 절상되기도 했습니다.

하지만 지금은 채권에서 자금이 빠져나가면서 핫머니 유입이 중단되었지만, 뱅가드 펀드에 따르면 인플레이션이 하락하면 다시 유입될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

불확실한 인플레이션 전망과 비즈니스에 미치는 영향

5% 상승할 것으로 예상되었던 월간 인플레이션은 특별소비세로 인한 연이은 가격 인상의 영향을 받았습니다.

물가 상승으로 인해 터키 섬유업계의 압둘라 키와 같이 양복 가격 인상으로 어려움을 겪고 있는 기업인들의 불만이 커지고 있습니다.

골드만삭스, JP모건 등 미국 은행들은 터키의 금리 인하 시작에 대해 상반된 전망을 내놓고 있어 향후 인플레이션 추세에 대한 불확실성이 가중되고 있습니다.

금리 인하가 시장과 통화에 미치는 잠재적 영향

10월의 금리 인하 가능성은 침체된 부동산과 중고차 시장을 되살릴 수 있습니다.

터키 경제는 달러 가치와 금값이 큰 변동을 겪으면서 핫머니와 인플레이션과 관련된 문제에 직면해 있습니다.

미연준의 금리 인하가 예상되는 가운데 지정학적 리스크와 중앙은행 활동의 영향을 받아 금값이 상승할 것으로 보입니다.

지정학적 긴장 속에 금과 은 가격 급등

하마스 정치 지도자의 테헤란 공격과 이스라엘과 레바논 간의 분쟁 등 중동의 지정학적 상황으로 인해 전쟁 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지면서 안전자산인 금과 은에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있습니다.

금 가격은 최근 급락한 이후 그램당 2,600 터키 리라를 넘어섰고, 은은 온스당 29달러에 근접하고 있습니다.

금과 은의 랠리는 투자자들에게 장기적으로 이익이 될 뿐만 아니라 Meta, Apple, Amazon과 같은 주요 기업의 중요한 대차대조표 발표를 앞두고 미국 증권거래소에서 선물 거래가 증가했기 때문으로 풀이됩니다.

엔비디아의 다가오는 대차대조표 발표와 시장에 미치는 영향

엔비디아의 재무제표 발표에 따라 주가 랠리의 방향이 결정됩니다.

긍정적인 결과가 나오면 랠리가 지속될 수 있지만, 기대 이하의 결과가 나오면 큰 폭으로 하락할 수 있습니다.

이스탄불 증시는 하락세를 보였지만 가란티 은행의 견조한 대차대조표와 HSBC의 오후 매수세로 추가 하락을 막았고, 외국인이 이날 주요 매수자로 나섰습니다.

HSBC Garanti는 여러 차례 매각을 진행했고, THY Pegasus는 새 비행기를 구입했습니다.

이스 야티림은 여러 회사를 가란티에 매각했고, 타췰러는 여러 차례 매각을 진행했으며, 증권거래소는 10,700으로 임계점에 도달했습니다.

세계 증시는 좋은 하루를 보냈지만 터키 증시는 다양한 섹터에서 긍정적인 성과를 거두며 큰 영향을 받지 않았습니다.

보험은 터키 보험 시장에서 상당한 매수세에 힘입어 이날 최고의 업종으로 부상했습니다.

Fener를 포함한 몇몇 기업은 손실을 발표했고, 다른 기업들은 자금 유입과 유출을 경험했습니다.