글로벌 방위 산업 동향 및 시장 기회

국제 계약 및 시장 동향을 포함한 방위 산업 발전 상황을 모니터링하는 것은 글로벌 안보와 경제 변화를 이해하는 데 매우 중요합니다.

### 한국 조선 산업: 주요 요인 및 향후 전망
* 🚢 한국 조선업계는 선가 하락으로 수익성이 악화되고 있으며, **9월에 열리는 MPC 802 회의에서 선박 교체 수요로 이어질 수 있는 방안**이 논의될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🇮🇳 자체 선박 건조를 어느 정도 계획하고 있는 인도는 중국 조선업체를 기피할 가능성이 높기 때문에 **한국 조선업체의 수주 증가**로 이어질 가능성이 있습니다.
* 💰 현대중공업은 미국 군함 건조 프로젝트에 참여하기 위해 **미국 내 조선소 인수**를 검토하고 있으며, 이는 **중요한 기준점**이 될 것입니다.
* 📈 국내 조선업체들의 실적은 **3분기부터 크게 개선**될 것으로 예상되며, 현재 가격대에서 **주식을 매수할 만한 가치**가 있습니다.
* 🛠 ️ 선복량 증설이 제한적인 한국 조선 산업은 꾸준한 성장이 예상되며, **MRO 사업은 중요한 부가가치 창출 요소**로 꼽힙니다.
* 🌏 한국은 저출산 정책에도 불구하고 **선진 기술과 사업 역량**을 갖춘 강소국으로서 다양한 산업 분야에서 강력한 글로벌 경쟁자로 부상하고 있습니다.
* 🇰🇷 한국은 제조업에서 많은 친환경적 변화를 통해 중국과 경쟁하고 있으며, **앞으로도 좋은 성과**를 이어갈 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 👴 인구 고령화가 가장 큰 문제이며, **인구 감소에 따라 한국의 미래 경쟁력이 저하될 가능성**이 높습니다.

This week, I prepared to do broadcasting and coverage on North Korea over the weekend. However, coincidentally, both sides experienced some events the day before yesterday, causing fluctuations. Now, the events are not as important as continuing to inspect the aspects of the fish tank because fundamentals are important. Therefore, you need to think about whether this is temporary or if there is a possibility of continuity. In relation to broadcasting, I have been providing updates since last year. I would like to first mention that this broadcasting will not be a one-time event. First, let's look at the charts and discuss. This is related to our country's defense exports, and the figures are based on current orders, so it should be accurate. I will start by looking at the charts.

If you look, you can see that there was a sharp increase in 2022, and you will feel that it is leveling up further after 2023. The main reason why this continuous trend must continue in the future is that protectionism is currently rampant. Now, mainly led by the United States, due to that, China, which used to focus on growing its own country, is showing a sharp decline in global trade conditions. On the other hand, if you look at the global defense spending, you can feel that it has been sharply increasing since 2015. But why did this happen? Because Trump raised it in 2012, just saying don't ride for free, pay.

When he was in office, President Trump made a statement that became news. At that time, he demanded NATO members to spend more than 2% of their national GDP on defense. He criticized countries that were not meeting this requirement, including South Korea, under the mutual defense agreement with the U.S. However, although there was an agreement reached, it was due to persuasion by White House officials, as Trump was against it. He even said that countries not paying the 2% defense budget should just be kicked out and that NATO countries, where many are not meeting the 2% requirement, should be paying 4%.

I mentioned that it should be received. Regardless of whether Trump becomes the president again or not, especially if Trump becomes the president, there is a high possibility that this issue will be debated again. Now, related to this, Ukraine has been facing Russia, and the U.S. has shown a different approach compared to before, not just by deploying troops to protect. Therefore, in fact, the needs for national defense are more urgent than ever, so aspects related to defense industries are crucial not only in Eastern Europe but also in the Arab and Middle Eastern regions. Moreover, as China continues to strengthen its economic power and military spending, today's article also mentioned that Taiwan's defense budget is still insufficient.

The former head of national security is speaking. Oh, here as well, what I'm talking about is that Taiwan's GDP is only about 3% right now. It's small, so it needs to be increased. Therefore, countries in the Indo-Pacific region should consider increasing their defense spending in this area. So, it is necessary to continue to monitor matters related to this. When you look at these articles, G7 countries have now discussed NATO and G7's financial support for Ukraine. Looking at it now, the funds, including those from Russia, are a bit burdensome to withdraw the principal using the reserves held by Russia. So, discussions are emerging about options such as borrowing. And then, now, attention is being paid to the market.

There are some notable events. It's set for the 26th, but some say it's the 29th. Until August 2nd, there is training currently taking place in Hawaii called RIMPAC training. South Korea's navy is participating, and it's happening in the Pacific region, involving countries like the United States. South Korea will conduct a real test of its missile, the L X1. This is not the first test; it's the third. So, there are expectations that this could lead to entry into the U.S. market. Additionally, regarding Raytheon Technologies, a company that produces Ghost Robotics, they are in the final stages of acquiring it. If the acquisition happens, it won't just end there but will also lead to entering the U.S. defense market.

I am working towards this goal right now. So, regarding the U.S. defense market, we talked about the Navy Maro last time, but domestic defense companies are currently knocking on the door. Therefore, when Korea actually enters and delivers to the U.S. market, this can be a different dimension and reference. I want to emphasize that we need to pay attention to the defense-related aspects from now on. Currently, the Eurosatory is being held, and companies like Hanwha Defense, Hyundai Rotem, and LIG Nex1 are participating, having consultations and exhibitions. An article came out yesterday stating that the K9 self-propelled howitzer is almost confirmed to have secured a contract worth 1.3 trillion won with Romania, not yet signed but almost confirmed. Also, the day before yesterday, during an interview with the head of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, it was mentioned about the K2 tank in Poland.

If the second contract is around September, it seems that the formal execution contract will be concluded, and recently, there have been news related to the defense industry. For example, Slovakia is also in the process of purchasing 10 tanks, and Hyundai Rotem SRS is involved. In the case of Slovakia, they are checking now, and this neighborhood is somewhat close to Germany. Slovakia has a dilemma because more than 75% of the country's land is mountainous. Therefore, in terms of tank operation, German tanks are heavy, making it difficult to operate. They conducted practical training in Poland recently, and the only tank that operated properly in the mud pool was the K2 tank. So, there seems to be some expectations for Slovakia.

Hanwha Aerospace seems to be making progress on the Latvian armored vehicle export. I mentioned Romania, and now Hanwha is showcasing the Saudi KF-21 fighter jet engine. Regarding the KF-21, there were talks of joint development between South Korea and Indonesia. Currently, Poland, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are showing a lot of interest in it. However, there seems to be some noise in the process. Approval from the U.S. is crucial for participation from that side. It is an issue to keep an eye on, but the potential seems sufficient. Moving on, the Heritage Foundation mentioned the U.S. military's shortage of naval power. Even now, compared to China, the U.S. naval power is relatively small.

As time goes by, as it reaches 25 years, the number of retired ships in the United States increases, leading to a decrease in actual naval vessels. In contrast, countries like China are increasing the number of naval vessels. Therefore, due to these aspects, the U.S. Navy is inevitably considering transferring the MRO to allied countries. The potential recipients are Hyundai Heavy Industries and other ocean-related industries. In addition to what I briefly mentioned earlier, there are some ongoing projects by domestic defense companies in 2024 that have been listed. Excluding what I mentioned earlier, one significant point worth checking besides that is related to Korea Aerospace Industries. In fact, if this goes through, it could be substantial, although it remains to be seen. The U.S. Navy's Tactical Training Aircraft project could potentially involve 500 to 600 units if it is ultimately selected.

Well, you see, when this consortium probably signed a deal with Lockheed Martin, at that time, Boeing was the one who won the bid. However, now Boeing had an accident, yes, they had an accident, so they couldn't deliver and couldn't meet the unit price, causing a problem with the door panels not fitting. This happened recently. Therefore, now it's drawing attention from the U.S. Department of Defense, saying there might be a chance this time. If it happens, it will naturally be a top-notch product. Besides that, Hyundai Rotem is progressing in Poland and Romania, and in the case of Turkey, they are discussing the delivery of the Cheongung and Shin-Kung missiles, and discussions are also underway in Romania. In addition to this, there are talks going back and forth about additional deliveries to Iraq. In particular, in terms of our country's defense industry.

We are talking a lot about Eastern Europe in the market right now, but we can't ignore the Middle East. The Middle East has always been a powder keg. Our relationship with Israel is not very good, and with Iran and Saudi Arabia, although relations with Saudi Arabia have improved a lot recently, it doesn't mean that everything can be resolved. That's why it's interesting now because of these aspects. Qatar is coming to buy weapons from South Korea, and Saudi Arabia is also involved. It's a situation where South Korea's weapons can go both ways. Especially in the case of Saudi Arabia, they have no choice but to be sincere about weapons now because they can no longer absolutely trust the United States as before. So, overall, Saudi Arabia is showing a lot of interest in Korean weapons, and now they are paying a lot of attention to technology transfer for their national security. In that aspect, South Korea has a strength now.

Since I have it, I think you should consider looking into Korea a lot. In addition to this, in the first quarter, there was an earnings shock with Hanaro Space and Hyundai Rotem causing a sharp decline in stock prices, leading to a significant outflow of institutional funds. Recently, the funds are being replenished. The reason for this is that at the time of the conference call, the first-quarter performance all rolls over to the second quarter. Even companies like Hanwha Aerospace are forecasting an operating profit of over 2 trillion won in the second quarter, showing the possibility of a significant earnings surprise. Moreover, currently, the tension with North Korea is escalating, and if it breaks, as they say, the situation, which is currently in a state of polarization, is unlikely to recover in the next one or two years. If Trump becomes... Russia will also...

They talk about NATO's inclusion, but it's an unrealistic story. Historically, it took about 30 to 40 years to transition from the Cold War to the post-Soviet era. As we move from bipolarization to multipolarization, it also took over 30 years for the Second Cold War to occur. It seems like it should be seen as a trend. Therefore, you should continue to keep an eye on defense. Next, regarding the South China Sea issue, I have explained that. From here, you can just read from number 1 to 5. The competition has decreased rapidly, combined with limited dry-up. Also, China's 27-year slot is full, so there isn't much attraction for low-cost procurement.

I mentioned earlier that Clarkson Shinjo is continuing to rise, and it is likely that the part related to environmental regulations, specifically related to ships, will be discussed at the MPC 802 meeting at the end of September. Therefore, it is expected that there will be a demand for the replacement of ships that have been in operation for over 20 years, possibly due to ship engines. In connection with this, the French company CMA CGM has ordered 20 container ships, which have been modernized by Hyundai Heavy Industries, and around ten ships have been contracted with Samsung Heavy Industries. Usually, in the shipbuilding industry, once a letter of intent is exchanged, the contract tends to follow through. Looking at LNG and methanol-powered ships, it seems that the materials for ship engines are changing, leading to ship modernization and the forefront.

Line is a shipping company, and the CEO here announced that there is a demand to replace about 13 oil tankers over the next 10 years. The aging ones are ultimately related to ship engines. Next, even in India, they are planning to have their own ships, saying they will own ships here as well to some extent. Since India is overwhelmingly populated, the quantity here is different from what we think. India, of course, will consider economic factors now. It's not as close to China in terms of relations, due to being enemies. India is targeting markets like the U.S. or Europe rather than China. In the shipbuilding industry, whether it's container ships or oil tankers, it's highly likely that they will not prefer China relatively. That will bring back a significant portion to us.

In the case of Japan, there are movements where Chinese companies are actually trying to withdraw from the shipbuilding industry. Therefore, in fact, it seems highly likely that Korea will take over in terms of scale. This was one of the main issues in the shipbuilding industry. It was talked about a lot last year, but now a report has come out saying that this is somewhat resolved. This report that has just come out from our side, from HHI, seems to be related to what CEO Kim Min-soo mentioned earlier. The ship prices are dropping, which is helping improve profitability, and as a result, profit margins are also continuing to rise. In terms of the aspect of improving profitability, one of the main factors that is boosting this, mainly related to shipbuilding, is primarily carrier ships, LNG carriers, followed by ammonia carriers, and other carrier ships.

Now, before that, in the case of container ships that our country and France had recently contracted, the price has gone up significantly to about 200 million dollars per vessel, which is quite high for a container ship with a capacity of around 16,000 TEU. So, do not worry too much about the margins. I have been showing you this every time when talking about Hyundai Heavy Industries. The performance is expected to improve significantly from the third quarter, and even the second quarter shows a better picture than the first quarter. Therefore, the idea here is that if you continue to accumulate during the first and second quarters, there will be opportunities. Although the valuation has increased a bit now, there is still value to buy at this price range. In my opinion, it is about decoupling from China and looking at the facts. In fact, for South Korea...

Even if you consider Korean shipbuilders to be close to a monopoly, and this year's valuation is high, but if we look into next year, Hyundai Heavy Industries will be about 15 times, followed by Samsung, less than one time. That's about the extent. Also, what is not included in the current valuation is, for example, if we were to do Mr. Business, if we were to do Mr. Business, then it's about 20 trillion only for the U.S. Navy. But currently, in my opinion, the U.S. Navy, this is just my speculation, I can't say for sure, but in this kind of maintenance business, it's almost all likely to go beyond our country to friendly nations. Because even though they build ships themselves, there are limitations. So, if I were to put it that way, the market is about 20 trillion, and the countries participating in it are Italy, Australia, Japan, and Korea. That's the plan. However, countries like Italy or Australia don't have many shipyards. So, now, Japan and Korea, Japan and Korea, shipyards, the MRO market too.

Ultimately, there is a high possibility of gaining a lot. In that context, when looking at the future, there is also a possibility of evaluation rating. I am also hearing some discussions related to the acquisition of shipyards in the United States. There are talks that Hyundai Heavy Industries is considering acquiring one. Why would they acquire it? Because if there is a shipyard in the United States, they can participate in U.S. military shipbuilding projects. In that case, if they are able to supply ships to the U.S. military, that becomes another reference point. By simply having experience supplying ships to the U.S. military, it is possible to appeal sufficiently. Therefore, the market could expand significantly. Regarding this aspect, currently, if we exclude the United States, there are five major projects in this area.

Companies are currently participating. In the case of Poland, it seems like Hanwha is almost certain to win the deal, realistically. In the case of Saudi Arabia, it seems like it will be a battle between South Korea and Japan. In the Philippines, there is a high possibility that Hyundai Heavy Industries will secure the contract from the shipbuilding sector. In Canada, it also seems like it will be a competition between South Korea and Japan. I keep emphasizing the timing of purchasing shares in the shipbuilding industry. It will truly improve from the third quarter. So, you can buy shares at any time. The shipbuilding industry is gradually rising, with not much increase in capacity expansion, almost none. Therefore, it may not skyrocket, but there is a high possibility that it will steadily rise. I have been mentioning this continuously. Regarding the MRO business, it will be a significant value-added factor.

And as I mentioned, in Japan, shipyards like JUNGONG have many movements to actually withdraw from the shipbuilding industry. Therefore, there is a possibility that a conflict may arise among allied countries. Considering that, it seems that you should keep an eye on it. Yes, so, in Korea, not long ago, last year, we were crazy about secondary batteries. However, our small nation with advanced technology and business capabilities seems to be emerging as a strong global competitor in various parts of the world. There are many instances where we are seen as a strong global competitor. Well, in my opinion, the United States seems to have given up on industries that are messy and tough. China has taken over a lot of that. We competed with China, but.

Now, instead of giving up, we have made many environmentally friendly changes there, so we have been able to withstand competition with China in manufacturing. The U.S., which is now attempting decoupling, can incur debts again, as long as the population increases. It seems that the current low birth rate policy is a bit miraculous. Looking at the capacity and potential of our nation, it seems that South Korea will continue to do well in the future. However, the biggest problem is aging; as the population decreases, there is a high possibility that our future competitiveness will decrease. It's a bit unfortunate. Many aspects of Jeju Island have been modernized, as discussed in other channels, so let's understand it today.

방산주 급등, 1회성으로 보면 후회합니다. / 조선주, 미국 발 호재 기대하세요! / 제가 보는 탑픽은? | 이영훈 이사

안녕하세요! 
돈 이 되는 경제이야기, 고수들의 투자 노하우를 배우는 경제 채널 입니다.

* 비즈니스 및 광고 문의 : ad@815.co.kr
* 출연 및 섭외 문의 : thinkeasyman@naver.com


815머니톡

지정학이 전 세계 국방 지출에 미치는 영향

전 세계 국방비는 2015년 이후 증가 추세에 있으며, 이는 부분적으로는 트럼프 대통령이 북대서양조약기구 회원국들에게 국방 예산을 늘리도록 촉구했기 때문입니다.

우크라이나와 러시아 간의 긴장과 미국의 변화하는 접근 방식은 국방을 더욱 시급한 우선 순위로 만들었고, 동유럽, 아랍 지역 및 중동의 방위 산업에 영향을 미쳤습니다.

대만의 부족한 국방 예산에서 알 수 있듯이 중국의 경제 및 군사력 성장도 국방 예산에 압박을 가하고 있습니다.

인도 태평양 방위 시장의 발전 방향

대만은 GDP 규모가 작기 때문에 인도 태평양 지역에서 국방비 지출을 늘려야 한다고 주장하고 있습니다.

미국과 한국이 참여하는 하와이 림팩 훈련에서 L X1 미사일의 세 번째 시험이 진행 중이며, 이는 미국 시장에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.

한화디펜스와 현대로템 등 한국 방산업체들은 루마니아와 슬로바키아에서 계약을 체결하는 등 세계 방산 시장에서 상당한 성과를 거두고 있습니다.

한화에어로스페이스의 국제 방산 벤처스

한화에어로스페이스는 KF-21 전투기 엔진을 중심으로 라트비아, 루마니아, 사우디아라비아, 아랍에미리트 등으로 방산 수출을 확대하고 있습니다.

이들의 참여를 위해서는 미국의 승인이 필수적이지만, 이들 벤처기업에는 상당한 잠재력이 있습니다.

한편, 사우디아라비아는 대미 의존도를 낮추기 위해 한국산 무기에 대한 관심이 높아지면서 국가 안보를 위한 기술이전에 집중하고 있습니다.

아시아 방위 및 조선 산업의 최신 동향

하나로스페이스, 현대로템, 한화에어로스페이스 등 한국 기업들은 주가가 큰 폭으로 변동하고 있으며 2분기에도 호실적이 예상되고 있습니다.

북한과의 긴장 고조와 미국, 러시아, 나토의 개입을 포함한 지정학적 변화의 잠재적 영향은 국방 부문에 대한 지속적인 관심이 필요함을 시사합니다.

조선 산업은 현대중공업과 삼성중공업과 같은 한국 기업이 신규 선박 건조 계약을 체결하는 등 노후 선박의 현대화 및 교체 수요가 증가하고 있으며, 인도도 이 시장의 플레이어로 부상하고 있습니다.

변화하는 조선 산업의 역학 관계

일본 기업들이 조선업에서 철수하면서 한국이 시장을 장악할 수 있는 기회가 생기고 있습니다.

선가 하락으로 특히 운반선 부문에서 수익성이 개선되고 있습니다.

현대중공업은 시장 확대를 위해 미국 내 조선소 인수 가능성이 높아지면서 실적이 크게 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.

한화는 폴란드에서, 한국과 일본은 사우디아라비아와 캐나다에서 수주 경쟁을 벌일 것으로 보입니다.

필리핀에서는 현대중공업이 수주할 것으로 예상됩니다.

조선업은 제한적인 선복량 확대로 인해 3분기부터 꾸준한 성장세를 보일 가능성이 높으며 점차 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

한국이 이 산업에서 강력한 글로벌 경쟁자로 부상하면서 동맹국 간 갈등을 야기할 가능성이 있습니다.

한국의 인구 고령화로 인해 업계의 미래 경쟁력이 영향을 받을 수 있습니다.