중국의 군용 드론: AI 기술의 발전

### AI 드론 경쟁: 중국 대 미국
* 🇨🇳 중국은 미국에 도전하기 위해 **인공지능을 탑재한 군용 드론**을 빠르게 개발하고 있으며, **인공지능이 탑재된 시스템들**이 상당한 진전을 보이고 있습니다.
* 🛩 중국은 수십 년 동안 미국을 따라잡기 위해 군대를 현대화해 왔으며, **AI 드론은 이 전략의 핵심 요소**입니다.
* 🌐 양국은 공중, 육상, 해상용 드론을 개발하고 있으며, **중국은 소형 소비자용 시스템**에서, **미국은 대형 군사용 드론**에서 두각을 나타내고 있습니다.
* 🤖 중국의 3단계 군사 발전 계획에는 **기계화, 정보화, 지능화**가 포함되며, **AI 드론은 마지막 단계**에 해당합니다.
* 🔮 전문가들은 진정한 자율 AI 드론은 아직 **수년 또는 수십 년**이 걸릴 수 있지만 **차세대 드론은 다른 특성**을 가질 것이라고 예측합니다.
* 🎯 양국은 **군집, 스택, 협업 전투기 등 AI 드론을 위한 다양한 전략**을 모색하고 있습니다.
* 🛰 대만을 둘러싼 잠재적 분쟁에서 드론의 인텔리전스 및 감시 기능은 매우 중요하며, **합성 개구 레이더 및 전자 광학 센서**와 같은 센서가 핵심적인 역할을 할 것입니다.
* ⏳ AI 지원 드론의 도입 시기는 아직 불확실하지만, **AI 기능의 실제 사용과 통합**에 따라 어느 국가가 군사적 우위를 점하게 될지 결정될 것입니다.

중국의 AI 기반 군용 드론의 급속한 발전은 전 세계의 전투 역학을 재편할 수 있습니다.

(man speaks foreign language) (jet engine booms) - [Narrator] These are videos released by China's state broadcasters. (bomb explodes) And experts say it shows the country has made huge strides in developing military drones for the air, land, and sea. But what's really grabbing experts' attention is this: large swarms of systems that show China appears to be equipping these drones with artificial intelligence. - While we were focused elsewhere in the world, China saw what they call that window of strategic opportunity to actually build a force that could compete with the US. - [Narrator] China has spent decades modernizing its military with the express goal of catching up to the US. AI-enabled drones are key to achieving that goal. While machines that fight entire wars on their own might be a ways off, experts say limited versions of these drones could be used in battle in just a few years. So who will make these drones first?

and how will they be used? (bright music) The first step of building an AI drone fleet is to build machines that could run the AI software. The US has long led the world in advanced military weapons, with more combat aircraft, armored fighting vehicles, and aircraft carriers than any other country. To compete, China has copied some of the US's most powerful systems. For instance, its Wing Loong is comparable to the US's Reaper drone, which is used for offensive strikes. Its Soaring Dragon drone is similar to the US's Global Hawk surveillance drone. Like the US, China has been building drones that operate across domains of battle. Both are making unmanned surface vehicles and submarines, which could be used for surveillance, laying mines, or firing torpedoes at warships. And on the ground, both are developing drones like these robotic dogs, which could be used to assess threats, fire small arms, and potentially even handle explosives while humans stay at a safe distance.

And then there are the small, cheap systems. While experts say America leads in large military drones, China is the world leader in consumer-grade drones, and it dominates the global supply chain to make these systems inexpensively. China's DJI controls nearly 3/4 of the global market. The US, meanwhile, has struggled to make reliable small drones at scale, which is why both sides in the Ukraine war have largely stuck to DJI drones, though the company says it opposes the use of its drones for combat. Small and mid-sized drones can't fly as far or as fast as large drones, and they can't carry as much firepower. But in the future, similar drones could be very useful when linked to other drones. The US and China are exploring a few strategies for using AI drones, but they appear to have advantages in different areas. One of the most sought-after approaches is swarms using large numbers of drones in land, air, or sea.

all linked with AI to overwhelm an opponent or carry out a mission. Even if each individual device has limited capabilities, swarms work best when some systems can be taken out without compromising the overall mission. - The comparative advantage that China has in the smaller systems, they could use for things like swarms as long as they're able to, you know, get the actual technology know-how behind enabling those. - [Narrator] For instance, in this video, multiple Chinese drones are purportedly working together to locate and take out a target. Both countries have used drone swarms, but only in trainee exercises. In the future, drone swarms may not require human involvement, but they might be programmed to keep humans in the loop. US Pentagon policy says humans are responsible for use of force by autonomous systems. But many worry, America's opponents would not follow the same ethical guidelines, which could enable them to strike faster. - And the United States were very concerned

about lethal autonomous weapons, this idea that a drone would operate completely independent from a human and actually engage targets. But the problem with all of this is that our adversaries are unlikely to participate in any kind of ban on lethal autonomous weapons. And the United States, in fact, is not participating in any kind of ban. - [Narrator] A simpler approach to swarms that's actually been battle-tested is called drone stacks. Here, different individually controlled drones are brought into a battle space to perform distinct and often sequential functions, like target identification from a distance and then confirmation at closer range. That information can be sent to a human operator who takes out the target. While AI can be used in limited ways within a drone stack, like for collision avoidance, the overall approach is much slower and less sophisticated than a swarm, and it requires about as many human operators as drones. Because drone swarms and stacks are largely useful for reconnaissance, the more sensors they have on board,

the more powerful they can be, particularly in a hypothetical conflict over Taiwan. Both countries would need as much intelligence about the battle space as possible. - I think this is a key place where they can contribute in terms of building up our combat capability, which in turn can bolster our deterrence and ensure this kind of conflict never happens in the first place. So I do think that a key capability drones will need to have is sensors for identifying targets in this highly contested battle space where we don't expect to have very good ability to see things so we can shoot them. - [Narrator] Those could include standard optical and infrared cameras, but also things like synthetic aperture radar sensors that could identify ships and other targets through clouds or electro-optical sensors that can see moving targets. A third approach to AI drones, of particular interest to the US, is collaborative combat aircraft using AI-equipped drones to support human fighters. For instance, gathering intelligence or delivering weapons.

That way, the crude fighter jet would have assistance and be less of a target than if it were carrying the weapons itself. Both countries are likely to need different types of AI-equipped drones. In a confrontation over Taiwan, China could launch drones from its shores while the US would need longer-range drones to deploy from some of its closest military bases. But both are exploring a huge range of drones as they try to achieve or maintain a military advantage. Over the past few decades, China has been executing a three-part plan to catch up to the US military. Mechanization, or reducing how many troops it needs by emphasizing weapon systems, informationization, building its surveillance systems to control battle spaces and link military platforms, and intelligentization, speeding up decision-making and communication with AI. So far, it says it's achieved the first objective. Truly intelligent drones might take years, if not decades. - I don't think we're gonna see AI-enabled drones

in the sense of drones that operate completely independent from humans in the next five years or so. But I do think we'll start to see a new generation of drones that have different characteristics than the predator and reaper that we've all become so familiar with from the last 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan. - [Narrator] Eventually, AI drones could replace troops in many contexts. A US Air Force test earlier this year put algorithms head to head with human fighter pilots in dogfights. And these systems could massively scale up fleets. A fighter jet can cost about $100 million. A DJI drone can cost a few hundred dollars. But the US has a long way to go to get these kinds of weapons on the battlefield. Two key American efforts to develop AI are the Air Force's Collaborative Combat Aircraft Program and the Department of Defense's Replicator program, but both are just ramping up.

The Air Force is funding two companies to develop autonomous fighter drones to fly in partnership with manned aircraft or connected to commanders on the ground, but it doesn't expect to receive fully operational drones until later in the decade. In the short term, AI and drones will likely be used in limited ways, such as more drones being built with autonomous navigation. When new technology pops up, the first country that can use it and then harness that power generally has a slight advantage, if not a great advantage. So timelines or timelines, but capabilities and actual practical use of those capabilities is more important. (pensive music) (graphic whooshes)

Deadly AI Drone Swarms and More: The Race to Build AI Drone Fleets | WSJ U.S. vs. China

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중국은 항공, 지상, 해상 시스템에 중점을 둔 군용 드론 개발에 상당한 진전을 이루었으며, 특히 인공지능을 사용하는 데 중점을 두고 있습니다.

중국의 현대화 노력은 미국과의 경쟁을 목표로 추진되어 왔으며, 전문가들은 몇 년 내에 제한된 버전의 AI 지원 드론이 전투에 사용될 수 있을 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

중국은 미국의 강력한 군사 시스템을 모방하여 다양한 전투 영역에서 작동하는 드론을 제작하고 다양한 군사 목적으로 무인 수상 차량과 잠수함을 개발하고 있습니다.

중국은 소비자용 드론 분야에서 전 세계 시장의 75% 가량을 장악하고 있으며, 미국은 신뢰할 수 있는 소형 드론을 대규모로 생산하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

두 나라 모두 상대를 압도하기 위해 군집 비행에 초점을 맞춘 AI 기반 드론 전략을 모색하고 있습니다.

드론 군집의 미래에는 인간의 개입이 최소화되어 윤리적 지침과 미국의 적에 의한 더 빠른 공격 가능성에 대한 우려가 제기될 수 있습니다.

독립적인 드론이 표적을 공격하는 것과 같은 치명적인 자율 무기는 미국을 포함한 적국이 금지할 가능성이 높습니다.

실전에서 검증된 접근 방식인 드론 스택은 개별적으로 제어되는 드론을 각기 다른 기능에 사용하므로 목표물 확인을 위해 사람이 직접 조종해야 합니다.

여러 센서가 장착된 드론은 치열한 전투 공간에서 정찰에 필수적이며, AI가 탑재된 드론은 인간 전투기와 협력 전투를 위해 연구되고 있습니다.

군사 전략에서 AI를 탑재한 드론의 역할

중국과 미국 모두 군사적 우위를 점하기 위해 AI를 탑재한 드론을 연구하고 있으며, 각국의 전략에 따라 다른 유형의 드론을 필요로 하고 있습니다.

중국은 미군을 따라잡기 위해 기계화, 정보화, 지능화에 초점을 맞춘 세 가지 계획을 실행하고 있습니다.

진정한 의미의 독립적인 AI 드론을 개발하는 데는 수년이 걸릴 수 있지만, 향후 다양한 특성을 가진 새로운 세대의 드론이 등장하여 병력을 대체하고 함대를 확장할 수 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

공군의 자율 전투 드론에 대한 투자

공군은 자율 전투기 드론을 개발하기 위해 두 회사에 자금을 지원하고 있으며, 10년 후반에 완전한 작전 능력을 갖출 것으로 예상됩니다.

단기적으로는 자율 항법에 초점을 맞춘 제한적인 방식으로 AI와 드론이 사용될 것입니다.

새로운 기술을 가장 먼저 효과적으로 사용하고 활용하는 국가가 상당한 이점을 얻을 수 있습니다.