북한-러시아 관계: 새로운 냉전 시대

### 북한과 러시아: 글로벌 긴장 속에서의 유대 강화
* 🏗 중국 단둥에서 바라본 북한에 **16층짜리 고층 건물이 건설 중**인데, 이는 팬데믹이 양국 간 인적 교류에 미친 영향에도 불구하고 개발이 계속되고 있음을 상징합니다.
* 🚢 북한과 중국을 잇는 중요한 통로인 **압록강 대교가 폐쇄된 채로 남아 있어**, 양국이 수교 75주년을 맞이하는 가운데서도 **양국 관계의 경색된 상황**을 반영하고 있습니다.
* 📉 북한과 중국의 관계는 냉각되었지만, 최근 **김정은과 시진핑이 북한과 러시아의 협력 증대를 배경**으로 관계를 개선하고자 하는 의지를 표명하면서 변화의 조짐을 보이고 있습니다.
* 🤝 북한과 러시아는 냉전 시대 협정을 반영하는 **상호 방위 조약에 대한 논의**를 통해 군사 동맹을 빠르게 강화하고 있으며, 이는 동북아시아의 지정학적 역학 관계에 중대한 변화를 예고하고 있습니다.
* 우크라이나 분쟁 중 북한이 러시아에 군사 물자를 제공하는 가운데, **첨단 군사 기술의 이전**과 이것이 미국의 안보 이익에 미치는 영향에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.
* 🌍 신냉전의 출현으로 북한은 **러시아와 중국의 전략적 동맹국**으로 자리매김하면서 국제 질서가 복잡해지고 북한의 잠재적 도발에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.
* ⚖ 한국은 북한과 러시아 같은 수정주의 국가들의 도전에 대응하기 위해 **자유주의 국가들과의 동맹을 강화**해야 하며, 이러한 지정학적 긴장을 헤쳐나가기 위한 **전략적 유연성의 필요성**을 강조하고 있습니다.
* 🔍 현재 상황은 평화와 안정을 위한 자유주의적 국제 질서 유지의 중요성을 강조하는 **강대국 분쟁의 역사적 선례**와 함께 이 지역의 미묘한 힘의 균형을 강조합니다.

북한과 러시아의 관계가 심화되면서 신냉전 속에서 지정학적 리스크가 커지고 있습니다.

The construction of a 16-story high-rise building is in full swing across the river. The building features inscriptions such as Patriotic Youth and Heroic Youth. A cargo ship, adorned with the national flag, is floating in the river, fully loaded with sand. This is a view of North Korea that can be seen from Dandong, China, which borders the North Korean city of Sinuiju. 

During the National Day holiday, the famous tourist spot, the Amnok River Bridge in Dandong, is bustling with tourists. However, the trade street leading to North Korea is quite deserted. Since the onset of COVID-19, there has been a complete halt in human exchanges between the two countries for over four and a half years, leaving North Korean specialized travel agencies essentially inactive. 

The symbolic New Amnok River Bridge in Chongqing is currently closed. It was built at a cost of 400 billion won, but there are concerns about excessive economic dependence, leading North Korea to be reluctant to expand exchanges. The entrance to the bridge is blocked, and construction workers occasionally come and go. Initially, foreign media speculated that the New Amnok River Bridge would open today, on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between North Korea and China.

I brought it up, but unlike previous observations, today the bridge appears very quiet. Until recently, there were expectations for an increase in activity following the bridge's reopening, but the surrounding commercial buildings look desolate. On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Xi Jinping exchanged messages to strengthen traditional ties. Of course, the respect for each other has significantly diminished, reflecting the cooling of North Korea-China relations compared to their previous relationship. This evaluation comes from SBS. Today, Zhao Leji, a member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China, met with Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea. The Xinhua News Agency reported that the chairman conveyed greetings from President Xi Jinping, expressing a desire to elevate North Korea-China relations. Chairman Kim responded that North Korea-China relations are developing to a new and higher level in accordance with the demands of a new era. The chairman marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

Yes, North Korea and China have visited North Korea from the 12th to today to attend the opening ceremony of the North Korea-China Friendship. Numerous crowds waved flags of both countries. A senior official from China's political circle visited North Korea for the first time in five years since Chairman Xi Jinping's visit in June 2019. During the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea sealed its borders, halting high-level exchanges between the two countries. Although exchanges resumed later, the relationship between North Korea and China has stagnated compared to their close ties due to Russia's military support. There are concerns that strengthening the North Korea-Russia and North Korea-China relations may pose another obstacle to resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. All exchanges with North Korea by other countries should be conducted in accordance with the Security Council, aimed at promoting North Korea's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula. This is SBS reporting from inside North Korea.

Recently, North Korea and Russia have effectively restored their military alliance, and the shadow of a new Cold War is deepening in Northeast Asia due to their close ties. We will explore this topic with Kim Jae-cheon, the Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Sogang University. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years, and the entire process was broadcast live by foreign media, showcasing the close and friendly relationship between North Korea and Russia to the world. There was clearly an intention to promote the strong ties between the two countries on a global scale. This marks a significant elevation in the relationship between the two nations, which is being assessed as the strongest level of agreement to date. So, how should we view this comprehensive partnership?

In defining the highest level of diplomatic relations, we now use terms that reflect this. The most critical aspect we should pay attention to is the military automatic intervention clause. In 1961, the Soviet Union and North Korea entered into an agreement that can be referred to as a mutual defense treaty, which included this military automatic intervention clause. However, after the international order of the Cold War was dismantled and the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia withdrew from this agreement. Therefore, if there is a military automatic intervention clause in place, as Chairman Kim Jong-un mentioned, it indicates that a military alliance has been restored. This gives us a basis to argue that the relationship between North Korea and Russia has entered a phase of extremely close ties since the Cold War. The relationship between our two countries has reached a new high level, and if we only consider the statements made, there seems to be some obligation involved.

Still, there was a nuance of being burdened, and Chairman Kim Jong-un repeatedly mentioned that a military-level agreement had been reached. This suggests that, even if strategic burdens arise, there is a desire to elevate the relationship between the two countries to that of a military alliance. Recently, North Korea exceptionally disclosed the full text of the treaty just a few hours after its announcement. It states that if a state of war arises, one side will provide military and other assistance using all means at its disposal without delay, according to the law. While it is not automatic, it does mean that they will provide all available means without delay. This indicates that the obligations outlined in the treaty suggest it is akin to a military alliance.

I believe there is sufficient evidence to say that it is a treaty. If you look at any other mutual defense agreements, there are no clauses that automatically mandate military deployments. It seems reasonable to interpret that both countries have signed an agreement that is comparable to a military alliance. Putin has expressed his willingness for military cooperation, but I think there is some room for interpretation regarding whether this means he intends to transfer nuclear or missile technology to North Korea. Fundamentally, North Korea is currently providing ceremonial weapons to Russia in the Ukraine war. This includes ammunition, artillery shells, and short-range missiles, which could be considered the most significant weapons. While North Korea has made remarkable advancements in ballistic missile technology, there are still some shortcomings.

There is something, for example, in the case of intercontinental ballistic missiles, they must be able to withstand tremendous heat and temperature when re-entering the atmosphere. However, they do not yet possess that level of technology. So, if Russia provides such cutting-edge technology to North Korea, the equivalence is too lacking; it’s like receiving bullets, ammunition, and short-range missiles. I think Putin might be able to make Kim Jong-un's heart ache a bit more. If he asks for more bullets, then that could be something to consider. Moreover, technology isn't given all at once; it can be provided in parts, so they might give a little as a taste and maintain some negotiating power. Perhaps North Korea will adopt such a strategy.

They will continue to demand such things, and North Korea also has its own leverage. If Russia runs out of ceremonial weapons in the ongoing war in Ukraine, then despite having such advanced military technology, if they lose in this war, what good will that technology be? So, there could be negotiations where they say, We'll give you this, so your ceremonial weapons will be a bit better. However, anyway, North Korea and Russia are in great military need of each other, which can be interpreted as them rapidly tightening their ties. Kim Jong-un's message was delivered strongly, elevating North Korea as a normal state while suggesting that he is fitting it into the order he leads. What did you think of yesterday's message regarding the war in Ukraine and its connection to North Korea?

If the close relationship with Russia acted as a significant cause, then looking at the bigger picture, the term new Cold War has been appearing quite frequently. Since World War II, the liberal international order, which the United States has led, created, and managed, has allowed countries to prosper, albeit not perfectly. However, there are countries that feel very uncomfortable with this. They want to revise the existing order and reshape it to their liking. In international relations, these countries are referred to as revisionist states. These are countries that are dissatisfied with the current order and seek to modify it to better fit their interests. I believe that representative examples of such countries are China, Russia, and North Korea. China has to be somewhat mindful of the international community, but Russia and North Korea...

North Korea has been trying to disrupt the current order, which is somewhat isolated. In the case of North Korea, they really favor this new Cold War. If you look at official documents from North Korea, the term new Cold War appears frequently. When the Cold War international order collapsed, North Korea was thrown into a state of confusion. Russia and China sequentially established diplomatic relations with South Korea, which led North Korea to make a strategic decision to develop nuclear weapons and missiles more vigorously in order to protect their national interests. Now, with the new Cold War structure solidifying, North Korea sees this as a significant opportunity. In fact, even just considering China and Russia, in the early 2000s, during the new Cold War international order, the strategies of the United States and China...

When competition was not so intense, there was a time when some attention was paid to North Korea's denuclearization. They genuinely participated in UN resolutions and imposed various types of penalties on North Korea. Russia did the same; when they participated in such resolutions, they ensured that energy was not supplied to North Korea, thereby exercising their leverage. However, now, they don't even mention North Korea's denuclearization. This indicates that North Korea has become a strategically important country for the revisionist bloc of China and Russia. And because North Korea is aware of this, they are playing the role of a proxy for this revisionist bloc. If the war is the direct cause of the close ties between the two countries, then there are structural factors underlying this situation.

Recently, Russia has provided support to North Korea, which is quite striking as it seems to break through the patriotic sanctions. This aspect caught my attention. There are concerns that Russia may not have a strong foothold in North Korea, but politically, it plays a significant backing role. The country of Russia remains strong. It is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. The permanent members possess veto power, which gives them considerable authority. Russia has participated in all UN resolutions and sanctions. However, it is currently openly violating those resolutions. There is a panel of experts from the North Korea sanctions committee that monitors whether the current sanctions are functioning effectively and prepares reports to inform the sanctions committee about this.

This is a committee that performs a very important function, and it has been decided to discontinue it, which means it has been abolished. In a way, this becomes a significant political strength for North Korea. North Korea will increasingly exhibit behaviors that question what is going wrong on our side. This means that the possibility of provocations becoming more intense is gradually increasing. A country that cannot be overlooked in this context is China. What is China thinking right now? I believe its intentions may be somewhat complicated. While their true motives might be complex, China, Russia, and North Korea belong to the same camp in the international order. If I were China, I would think that the countries aligned with it strengthening their ties is not necessarily a bad thing. Nonetheless, China is now...

It is quite burdensome to see countries like Russia and North Korea being perceived in such a way. They genuinely want to maintain normal diplomatic relations with many countries and consider themselves normal states. Therefore, even if they are in conflict with the United States, they prefer to fight within the ring, even if it means engaging in fierce mixed martial arts competitions with established rules. In contrast, North Korea and Russia have completely stepped outside the ring, attempting to burn it down. This is the current situation, and while they are showing signs of wanting to distance themselves from North Korea and Russia, if the United States can disrupt the existing liberal international order that it has led and maintained, it aligns with China's strategic interests. Strategically speaking, this is the case.

While we are going together, the policies of each level may differ slightly in terms of tactics. To what extent is the closeness between North Korea and Russia approaching a crisis for the United States? The U.S. perceives Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a serious challenge to the international order led by the U.S., which is why it is providing tremendous support. Currently, Russia is facing a shortage in its conventional military capabilities, and if North Korea fills that gap, the possibility of the U.S. achieving the desired outcome in the Ukraine war diminishes. 

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, North Korea claims that its intercontinental ballistic missile technology is now perfected, meaning it has secured military capabilities that can directly strike the U.S., thereby establishing a deterrent force.

It is said that two things are lacking: the technology for re-entering the atmosphere and the guidance technology to target the warheads that have entered the atmosphere at places like Washington, D.C., and New York. The guidance technology is still not available. If Russia provides support and this ICBM reaches a nearly complete state, it would pose a direct threat to the United States. This is clearly seen as a significant threat. Given that North Korea and Russia are closely aligned, and we are in a situation of collaboration with the U.S., being caught in the middle of the Korean Peninsula again exposes us to geopolitical risks, which I believe is a legitimate concern. However, I really dislike the idea of heading towards such a situation, and I wish to reverse it.

현재의 상황은 어느 국가도 감당할 수 없는 구조적인 문제이며, 이는 강대국 간의 경쟁이 항상 동반해온 결과입니다. 1차 대전, 2차 대전, 그리고 냉전 시대를 포함해 강대국들이 충돌할 때는 항상 진영을 나누어 싸웠습니다. 그런데 한국은 이를 원치 않으니 균형자 역할을 하자고 주장하는 사람들은 다소 무책임하다고 생각합니다. 오히려 더 근본적인 문제를 해결해야 한다고 봅니다. 한국이 지금의 번영을 누릴 수 있었던 것은 자유주의 국제 질서라는 환경적 요인 덕분입니다. 즉, 자유와 인권, 민주주의, 법치, 그리고 인류 보편적인 가치들이 존중받는 질서가 있어야 하며, 항행의 자유와 교역의 자유가 보장되어야 합니다.

Such an order has been in effect, so maintaining it is essential for core countries. Therefore, I believe it is very necessary for South Korea to put in more effort to prevent the challenges posed by revisionist countries that are strengthening their alliances. However, when we act strategically within that larger framework, we don't necessarily need to engage with these revisionist countries in a very confrontational manner. That is precisely what strategic flexibility is about. I believe there are definitely areas where we can demonstrate such flexibility. We need to return to the basics. Therefore, I think we should strengthen the alliance of liberal countries and respond to these challenges.

위험한 브로맨스 여파? "명패도 뗐다" 북중 접경지 가보니 / SBS / 모아보는 뉴스

지식플랫폼 스프 앱 출시 지금 다운로드!

SBS 뉴스

북한의 변화하는 지형과 중국과의 관계

코로나19 이후 인적 교류가 중단돼 조용한 중국 단둥에서 북한에 16층짜리 고층 건물이 건설되고 있다.

북중 관계를 상징하는 신압록강대교가 폐쇄되면서 경제적 의존도와 관계 경색에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

최근 북한과 중국 지도자 간의 고위급 회담은 관계 강화를 목표로 하고 있지만, 북한과 러시아 간의 파트너십이 강화되면서 지역 안정과 북한 핵 문제에 미치는 영향에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

진화하는 북한과 러시아의 관계

현재 최고 수준의 외교 관계에는 1961년 소련과 북한 간의 상호 방위 조약의 일부였던 군사 자동 개입 조항이 포함되어 있습니다.

냉전 종식 이후 러시아가 이 협정에서 탈퇴한 것은 군사 동맹의 복원을 시사하며 북한과 러시아 간의 관계가 매우 긴밀함을 나타냅니다.

최근 조약 전문이 공개되고 우크라이나 전쟁에서 북한이 러시아에 무기를 제공한 것은 두 나라 간의 군사적 협력이 얼마나 중요한지를 더욱 강조합니다.

러시아 기술이 북한에 미치는 영향

특히 군사 무기 분야에서 러시아의 잠재적 첨단 기술은 북한의 수요에 비해 부족한 것으로 여겨지고 있습니다.

양국은 군사적으로 서로를 매우 필요로 하고 있으며, 이로 인해 관계가 급속히 긴밀해지고 있습니다.

러시아와 북한의 관계는 세계 질서를 재편하려는 수정주의 국가들의 큰 흐름의 일부이며, 중국, 러시아, 북한이 주요 사례입니다.

북한은 공식 문서에서 신냉전이라는 용어를 자주 사용하는 것에서 알 수 있듯이 현 질서를 붕괴시키려 하고 있으며 신냉전을 선호합니다.

핵무기와 미사일을 개발하기로 한 북한의 전략적 결정은 러시아, 중국, 한국 간의 외교 관계 수립에 대한 대응이었습니다.

신냉전 구조가 굳어지면서 북한은 중국과 러시아라는 수정주의 블록에 전략적으로 중요한 국가가 되어 이들의 대리인 역할을 하고 있습니다.

중요한 위원회를 중단하기로 한 결정은 북한의 정치적 입지를 강화하고 도발 가능성을 높일 것으로 예상됩니다.

이러한 맥락에서 중국은 정상적인 외교 관계를 유지하면서 동시에 러시아 및 북한과 협력하고자 하는 복잡한 의도를 가지고 있습니다.

북한의 러시아 지원은 우크라이나 전쟁에서 미국의 노력과 군사력을 약화시킬 수 있기 때문에 북한과 러시아 간의 긴밀한 관계는 미국에게 위기를 초래할 수 있습니다.

러시아의 잠재적 지원을 받는 북한의 ICBM 개발은 미국에 직접적인 위협이 되고 있습니다.

북한과 러시아의 동맹은 한국과 같은 국가에 지정학적 위험을 증가시켜 균형 잡힌 역할을 하는 것을 목표로 하는 국가들에게도 위협이 됩니다.

자유, 인권, 민주적 가치를 존중하는 자유주의 국제 질서를 유지하는 것은 수정주의 국가들이 제기하는 도전에 대처하는 데 매우 중요합니다.