Hello, nice to meet you. September 5th is just around the corner, and homeowners are feeling lost. It's not just people who are getting older; it seems that market buildings are aging as well. I think I heard news last year about local governments needing to repair bridges but facing budget shortages. There are many areas that require funding, and if we don't proceed with reconstruction, it seems like problems will arise. This is the most important news today. 

The most significant news today is the quiet bank loan application counters. A few days ago, there was news that home mortgage applications amounted to 400 billion won in a single day. However, due to increased pressure from lending regulations, this amount dropped to 50 billion won. I came across this news about a week ago. But today's news indicates that home mortgage applications have decreased by over 90%. If it was 400 billion won, that means it’s now less than 40 billion won.

It seems that there have been many changes. The biggest risk in the real estate market is the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and this person is the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Chairman of the Financial Supervisory Service. I don't know when real estate became so significant; in fact, there are probably more people who remember it from this time. There are concerns that the worsening household debt problem could arise. While making this statement, banks raised interest rates all at once. Since the banks raised the rates, it wasn't that they were told to do so. Consequently, the banks are coming up with other measures. As the banks present other measures, the Financial Supervisory Service states that we must not block genuine demand. The situation continues to escalate in different directions. Now, the balloon effect of the housing market is more frightening than credit loans, as the DSR (Debt Service Ratio) is applied. When the DSR starts to be applied, it will lead to a more terrifying catastrophe.

It seems to be escalating, but we need to go back to before that. Now, we are just bringing up the topic of government-controlled finance. In fact, government-controlled finance started back in December 2023, when the high interest rates were causing difficulties for ordinary people, prompting calls to lower the rates. It was from this point that abnormal trends began. Why did this topic come up at that time? After the special loans ended, the real estate market suddenly cooled down. So, they came up with a way to lower interest rates. Do you remember how it was back then? Yes, the base rate was fixed at 3.5%. The base rate dropped from that level to around 4%, and recently it has fluctuated back down to about 3.5%, only to rise again to around 4.5%. In fact, the 4.5% level is considered normal. Regarding the economic growth rate, I was tracking it but lost track. The economic growth rate is also...

No, the GDP for the second quarter has decreased by 0.2%, indicating negative growth. Why do we hear that cars are selling well and semiconductors are performing well? What else is there? The news has mentioned that everything seems to be going well, but it turns out that this is not the case. Domestic demand is very weak, and the trend in net exports is also showing weakness. This is closely related to the value of the currency. Are we progressing steadily as a country, or have we reached our peak and are now shrinking? This is the crossroads we face. The threat from China is becoming increasingly serious, and we will likely encounter more news about this in the future. Currently, the stock market is showing a decline, with a drop of 0.07%. Seoul's stock market continues to give back its gains. At one point, it was up by 0.31%, but now it stands at a level of 0.21%. The figures will continue to fall. It doesn't seem like it will take much longer to reach a conclusion regarding this. The rental prices in Seoul are also...

Incheon has significantly increased its value. Incheon is moving forward, but since there is a mutual security relationship, it won't be easy to go solo. In fact, the number of properties in Seoul has decreased considerably. Among the districts, this is the most favorable area. Suddenly, how do you find 1 billion won? It's not that you don't have the money; others don't have it either. There are concentrated properties worth 1 billion won. When it comes to reconstruction, the house prices will jump to about 2 billion won, and you will need to pay around 500 million won in contributions. There are things like this where you have to pay about 500 million won. So, when you say, What is 500 million won in a house worth 2 billion won? people often can't come up with that 500 million won. So what do they say? It's not that when I started living here, the house price was 1 billion won; I bought it when it was around 300 million won, and the price has risen like this.

A person's asset level is around 300 million won. Of course, if they sell and only have cash, it would be a different story, but the asset level isn't that high. So, can someone who previously owned a 300 million won house suddenly have 500 million won? It's difficult to imagine. How could they suddenly acquire 1 billion won? 

Now, let's talk about the Dunchon Jugong area. The sale price for a 34-pyeong unit is 1.3 billion won. Excluding the initial deposit of 20%, about 1.1 billion won is needed. However, the loan is capped at 900 million won. So, you can only pull out 900 million won. This means you still need to find an additional 200 to 300 million won. But even that 200 million won isn't easy to come by. When buying a 1.3 billion won house, shouldn't you have about 500 to 600 million won on hand? It turns out that's not the case. With this money, how much can you cover the initial deposit and how much is left?

With 20% down, I bought a property worth 1.3 billion won, totaling around 250 million won. However, as the situation makes it difficult to rent it out, I find myself in a state of confusion upon seeing news about it. There's talk about an apartment that has seen an increase of about 7.8% based on the 84 standard. I believe the future outlook for this is positive, and I completely agree. Although the burden of the prices is considerable, I am starting to wonder if I should buy now. There are comments suggesting that if I had that money, it would be better spent elsewhere. Some are saying, Will it hit 800 million soon? Others believe it should have surpassed 800 million already. There are various opinions being expressed. To someone who says it should have exceeded 800 million by now, I might ask, I’m planning to sell this for 790 million; would you be interested? and they might respond, I already have everything set up, so...

The story goes that it didn't turn out well. I should have approached it more seriously. Now, I moved in on August 12, 2022. Once the registration is done, it will be September 2024. The promised September has arrived, and two years have passed. Now, gradually, a few transactions will occur. Then, people's reactions will be like, The transaction volume is high, that's amazing, and such stories will come up again. It seems like it's the stories of those trying to sell. The low floor is 720 million, the mid-floor is 800 million, and the high floor is around 900 to 1 billion. The mid-high floor is around 850 million. This price range is mainly based on asking prices. To buy this, one should have about 500 million to be able to negotiate a bit. With 200 to 300 million, if you take out a loan of about 550 million, you would need around 250 million to buy this. These days, the atmosphere is such that if you get a chance, it's definitely worth it, leading to reckless decisions.

There seems to be a tendency for people to take out loans to buy homes. When one buys a house with an excessive loan, the responsibility ultimately falls on the individual. Regarding the apartment in Songhyeon 3rd District, I couldn't mention it yesterday, but the 82 square meter unit has dropped in price to 220 million won. Now, let's consider the prices from 2016 and 2017. If we look at the number of transactions, it may seem like a lot, but many of those transactions likely involved local residents. In 2017, the asset level of these residents was around 250 million won based on apartment prices. However, if they are moving to a new house, the share payment is going down to 500 million won. Approximately 80% of the assets owned by individuals in our country are tied up in real estate. Assuming an average scenario, it is highly likely that they had around 50 million won in cash assets. However, for the 84 square meter unit...

I spent about 50 million won on a type of property. In a situation where someone with that amount of cash has to share 500 million won, the location is relatively decent, and it's considered a good area. However, even such places struggle. The apartments there have about 10 to 15 floors, and they are now around 30 years old, preparing for reconstruction. If we look at these, most of them are high-rise apartments, which makes things quite difficult. 

In terms of sales, the price is about 840 million won, with a shared burden of 500 million won. If we estimate the market price at around 220 million won, then if they were to distribute it, it would come to about 720 million won. So, the minimum selling price would likely exceed 700 million won. In this case, local residents would have to bear the burden of 500 million won, or those who bought for over 500 million won would find themselves in a situation where they truly cannot buy or sell.

At this time, the person who bought the house for 500 million won is now purchasing it for 1 billion won. With 1 billion won, based on today's transactions, you can find properties around Beomeo Center, specifically in the Beomeo area. A location like this can be considered new construction and is valued around 1 billion won. For instance, Songhyeon 3rd District is also at 1 billion won. However, it seems that progress has not been made well so far. It was an incredible time. Even with such low asking prices, you still have to pay the 500 million won contribution to enter. It seems that people are hesitant to make a move. When the prices were at 500 million or 600 million won, everyone was eager to invest, but now that prices have dropped again, people are being more cautious. Thank you, Coupang. The selling volume has increased to 38,500 grams, and the trend is changing. The rental volume is also showing a slight change in trend, indicating that it is time for some adjustments. The transaction volume this month is 172, and the total transaction volume is slightly over 1,900.

I might be close to exceeding the limit, but since September, the amount of loans has suddenly decreased to one-tenth. It seems normal for transactions to decrease. We shouldn't mistake the widespread financial pressure for just the pressure in the metropolitan area. I want to emphasize this point a bit. The transaction amounts per case have decreased in Seoul, Busan, and Daegu as well; it doesn't feel like there's a strong upward trend. The actual transaction price is around 1.12 billion won. Many people are still going to buy houses, so I took a stroll around the nearby area. Skipping a few mentions, the World Mark West End, a 45-pyeong (approximately 149.5 square meters) unit that's 15 years old, is priced at 830 million won. The Billie Sky is at 850 million won. When asked about these choices, I think a 15-year-old apartment is acceptable. The recently constructed apartments are indeed a topic of interest.

I have a question about the subway station area. Can I possibly buy a car in Daegu? The parking situation at World Mark is quite concerning. Look at the number of parking spaces—2,400 for one generation; it's enormous. In other places, after parking in a mixed-use complex, I really don't want to go outside. I don't want to go out at night. 

The second phase of Wolbe has a 40-pyeong unit priced at 720 million won, which feels a bit expensive. It does feel a bit pricey. Castle Gold Park now feels completely different. Can you feel the difference between the two? There is a 100 million won gap. Cheongsu is similar as well. 

In Hwanggeum-dong, a 20-year-old I-Park and a 10-year-old one can be compared like this. When you look at it this way, the atmosphere has shifted a bit. It's like the tail of a dragon and the head of a snake. I have been reflecting on this ratio for about three years now, and that’s the feeling you should get. Oh, it's already been 13 minutes. I have a lot I want to say, but...

Today, I will conclude here and will continue to share more information next time. Looking at the national standards, the prices seem to be quite similar. Yesterday, there was a transaction for 500 million won and another for 470 million won. How much is it for Wolsong Hyopseong? Oh my, it's really to the point where prices are dropping. Although it was newly built, it's now around 8 or 9 years old. Dongdaegu Ubang Yusel is at 460 million won and is 5 years old. I keep bringing data from about 5 or 6 months ago to show you, and whether I show you now or then, there won't be much difference. If I bring data from a year and a half ago or show you the current data, there won't be much difference either. The expensive apartments are slightly increasing, and then, the other ones are also rising a bit. However, regarding that...

The tail of the snake is really devastating. 37% here, 40% there, 40% here, 40% there, 34%, 54%. The tail of the snake is like this. 40%, 36%, 50%, 50%. Yes, 50%, 52%, 5, 36%. The atmosphere is like this. Looking at the average, it feels like it's dropping a bit compared to a year and a half ago. So, similarly, it feels like there's a slight drop. On average, it feels like it's dropping, but there are those who are moving up and others who are sinking. Each person should make their own judgment, whether it's about investing or anything else; that's up to them. As for living, I don't sell. First, it's important to understand the information and grasp the current situation accurately before moving. When it comes to trading volume, the likelihood of forming a double top increases. After forming a double top, I actually look at this flow. Yes, the trading volume is really not good, but when I mentioned the stagnation, not just the kimchi stagnation, but this stagnation, I talked about the atmosphere at that time.

If we go ahead, we need to consider these aspects. When occupancy stops, new constructions become scarce, and existing properties need to be sold before moving or doing anything else. So, when we move into a new property, we inevitably have to sell and cycle through this process. If this cycle doesn't happen, some people might say we are entering a boom market. However, I believe the market will become quite stagnant, and transactions will likely decrease further. I can't really find a specific reason to act. I think the number of people feeling this way will increase. Thank you very much for watching today. I'll quickly touch on this part. Even trying to condense it into 10 minutes is not easy. I always have a lot to say, summarizing just a few important points from each day. Thank you for your attention.

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