예측 시장: 2024년 암호화폐 킬러 앱

### 폴리 마켓: 2024년 미국 대통령 선거를 위한 2억 1,700만 달러 규모의 예측 시장
* 🔮 트럼프와 바이든의 대선 토론에서 암호화폐에 대한 언급은 없었지만, 이번 대선에서 암호화폐의 판도를 바꿀 수 있는 잠재적인 킬러 앱이 발견되었습니다: **예측 시장**.
* 📈 폴리 마켓은 **2024년 미국 대통령 선거 승자를 위한 시장에서 총 2억 1,700만 달러의 가치 잠김(TVL)**을 기록하는 등 전례 없는 거래량을 기록했습니다.
* 🏛 블룸버그와 같은 주류 미디어 기관은 **폴리 마켓의 유동성과 모든 플레이어의 참여**로 인해 신뢰할 수 있는 정보원으로 자주 인용합니다.
* 🔄 예측 시장을 통해 미래 결과를 실시간으로 예측할 수 있으며, **내부 정보를 가진 개인은 베팅**을 통해 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 🧠 예측 시장은 **이더리움 초창기부터 암호화폐 업계에 존재**했던 개념이지만, 사용성 문제로 인해 지금까지 채택되지 못했습니다.
* 💬 비탈릭 부테린은 예측 시장을 **"진실을 추구하는 민주적인" 기술**이라며 지지 의사를 밝혔습니다.
* 🎯 폴리 마켓에서 가장 인기 있는 예측 시장에는 **2024년 미국 대선 당선자, 민주당 후보, 바이든이 경선에서 탈락할 확률** 등이 있습니다. 엘론 머스크는 예측 시장에 대한 비탈릭의 트윗에 "네"라는 간단한 답변으로 화답했습니다.

예측 시장 플랫폼인 Poly Market은 역사적인 거래량을 기록하며 선거 결과 예측의 중요한 소스로 자리 잡았습니다.

[Music] David, we ended last week's weekly rollup with a little bet. Because we are on the brink of the presidential debate, Trump versus Biden, that was going to happen. And there was a bet as to whether crypto would be mentioned or not. I lost that bet. Crypto was not mentioned. But in my defense, very little was mentioned during that debate in terms of substance. He golf was mentioned. It was an absolutely, uh, Terri train wreck of a debate. There's been much commentary on that. I'm sure Bank list listeners have not missed that commentary. But crypto was unmentioned at all during that debate. And who knows what's going to happen? Who knows whether we'll have the same presidential candidates in a couple of weeks? You like versus versus this debate. That doesn't mean, oh wait, somebody does know. Oh, really? Oh, okay. Well, that gets to what we intro beginning of this episode, which is we may have stumbled across a killer app for crypto this cycle. We've been looking for it. Is there more this

been under our noses this entire time. Prediction markets. Poly Market is driving like historic unprecedented of volumes. And what it's doing, what is Poly Market, and what are we looking at on the screen. Poly Market is a prediction market platform. So you can bet on the future outcomes of events. Prediction markets have been a thing before crypto. There predict it is a prediction market that's like web 2 based and like just like a transer based. It's kind of janky. I've used it before, tried to bet on Andrew Yang last cycle. Didn't work, lost. But I could probably bet on Andrew Yang again this cycle. At least some people are betting on Michelle Obama winning on a 4% chance of becoming the Democratic or the presidential election winner. There is on the presidential election winner for 20124 on Poly Market. There is $216 million of TVL in this one market, this one single market. So this market is extremely liquid. And so the cool thing about prediction markets is

that it allows the market to predict future outcomes. And it's an oracle. It's a source of Truth. Uh, and so not only is this just like kind of cool to have, but mainstream media organizations like Bloomberg frequently site Poly Market, the crypto at Poly Market, as a source of truth because it is. It has 85% of all prediction market volumes as it relates to the presidential election or politics in general. So if you are looking to site anything, you what you do is you go site the most liquid venue because that's where all the players are making their bets, and that is the best source of truth of what is most likely. Oh yeah, and it responds in real time. So during the debate, the percentages like so right now we're looking at presidential election winner 2024. Donald Trump has a 61% chance of winning at this point in time, but guess what? Joe Biden is not number two. You know who's hopped into number two? Kamala Harris. Harris is number two, so the

17% which is nuts right because she's not even running at this. She's not even running well. So this is kind of the cool thing about prediction markets is that if you are an Insider with Insider information that you think that the market is not priced in because it's secret, you get to go to a prediction market and bet your life savings and you will change the market. You will change the outcome of this particular bet. And so maybe maybe I think it's insane just because I'm watching K Harris meme videos about like unburdening ourselves from what have been. I don't know if you've seen these Ryan, but like maybe someone knows something and they think that like the Democratic party is going to conspire to swap out Joe with Kamla Harris. Yeah, I mean we have Michelle Obama with a 4% probability so it could it could get even crazier. Why is Michelle Obama in there? Well, so I mean what's interesting about this too is from the very early days of Ethereum.

and and and crypto prediction markets have been a thing that we had hoped to build right. And so like augur was a very early implementation. It's like one of our first big apps ethereum. Yeah, but the problem is the wallet ux hasn't been there. It's been too hard to use like gas trans ether in the first time around. Yeah, and now here we are in 2024. And it's like with poly Market, it's a pretty. It's easier to use than than predict it. It's easier to use than than web 2. So um very exciting to see. And also as as you mentioned mainstream attention. They are citing this in like mainstream media as uh like a good source for truth on what the heck is going on in the election. $260 million is hard to argue with. Uh bology put out a tweet uh right after the debate. This this is a a tweet of Joe Biden's chances of becoming the Democratic uh nominee uh plummet from like 85 90% chance down to 25% chance right after in real time.

happen in real time, and so we're watching, we're watching in real time things like play out. Uh, and of course, what happened after the debate, all of the Democratic Party is now saying like, Oh, maybe, maybe Biden shouldn't be our nominee. Uh, Hayden Adams put out a tweet saying, Poly market for Dem nominees is popping off. Prediction markets are basically anonymous insider leaks at this point. So again, if you have, if you're an insider and you know something, you can leak that information to the public without saying who you are or what you know just by like smashing that buy button on a particular prediction market. Politics is really a great place to bet. This is on the Poly Market homepage. Like the most populated prediction markets are like presidential election winner for 2024, who's going to be the Democratic nominee, the probability that Biden drops out of the presidential race. That's a 76% chance. Wow, at this point in time, I actually believe those numbers, which is totally crazy. We're so close to election day and

we have the Democratic nominee, uh, potentially 76% dropping out, and uh, the numbers have been absolutely crazy. This is open market interest, uh, April 2024 all-time highs. And just like, you know, like these election markets have propelled Poly Market into, uh, incredible volumes here. It's like doing analytics so we can track all this stuff. Uh, it's really cool to see. Can I just rattle off some numbers here and just in terms of size of the Deb the, the, uh, the bets, okay. Presidential election winner 2024, $217 million. Democratic nominee 2024, $80 million. Biden drops out of the presidential rage question mark 10 million. Republican vice president nominee, there is $6.1 million on the, on the bet for the Republican vice president nominee. Presidential election popular vote winner, uh, 43 million doll, uh, like the, these markets are super liquid. Yeah. Did you, did you pay attention to how much Capital was on the me versus Nick, uh, uh, Poly Market fight? Um, did I, did I ever bet? I don't think I

got to the stage of betting that oh yeah because you just took it directly with Kyle Sani yeah yeah it was like it was like 40 k or something like this or was it more 40 to 80 it was about to hit $100,000 yeah yeah that's crazy people love betting on these things dude no it's it's fun and like I said I mean this this now works on on crypto I believe this is all on polygon as well so that's right uscc on polygon yeah actually relatively centralized of an app except for the fact that it uses uscc on polygon underneath it's using crypto in the right places um this is vitalic showing his support for uh prediction markets he says prediction markets and Community notes are becoming two Flagship social epistemic Technologies of the 2020s both are truth seeking and Democratic built around open public participation rather than pre-selected uh Elites I want to see many more things like this metalic coming out in support of prediction

markets and what's going on with Poly Market. Did you see uh Elon? Elon responded to this tweet. Did you see what he said? No, no, I didn't. He responds, Yeah. What does that mean? That's it. He just responded, Yeah. Is that good? All right, thanks. I like that. Oh, uh, Community notes. That's why Vitalik said Community notes. So, Elon Musk was summoned. That makes sense. Community notes, by the way, is great. It is. It is great. To continue leveling up your crypto game, then you need to get on the Bankless newsletter, the world's most popular crypto email, and it's completely free. Just click below to sign up. [Music]

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대통령 선거 토론이 암호화폐에 미치는 영향과 폴리 마켓의 부상

최근 대선 토론에서 암호화폐는 언급되지 않아 실체가 없다는 비판을 받았습니다.

그러나 예측 시장 플랫폼인 Poly Market은 단일 시장에서 총 2억 1,600만 달러의 가치가 고정되어 있는 등 역사적인 수준의 거래량을 기록하고 있습니다.

이는 예측 시장에 대한 관심과 유동성이 증가하고 있음을 나타내며, 이번 선거 기간 동안 암호화폐의 킬러 앱이 될 가능성이 높습니다.

미래 결과 예측에서 폴리 마켓의 중요성

폴리 마켓은 대선 및 정치 관련 예측 시장 거래량의 85%를 차지하는 매우 영향력 있는 예측 시장입니다.

블룸버그와 같은 주류 미디어에서 자주 인용하는 신뢰할 수 있는 실시간 정보 소스입니다.

이 시장에서는 내부자가 비밀 정보에 베팅할 수 있어 잠재적으로 베팅 결과에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

폴리 마켓은 암호화폐 예측 시장의 사용자 경험을 개선하여 이전보다 더 주류적이고 사용하기 쉽게 만들었습니다.

이 플랫폼은 2억 6천만 달러의 거래와 민주당 후보의 당선 가능성과 같은 중요한 이벤트에 대한 실시간 예측을 통해 주류의 관심과 상당한 신뢰도를 얻었습니다.

예측 시장은 이제 익명의 내부자 유출로 간주되며, 특히 정치 영역에서 대선과 바이든의 경선 탈락 가능성에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

선거 시장이 폴리 시장에 미치는 영향

2024년 대선과 민주당 후보에 대한 오픈 마켓의 관심은 사상 최고치를 기록하고 있으며, 수백만 달러의 베팅이 이루어지고 있습니다.

폴리 마켓의 선거 시장은 특히 대선 승자와 민주당 후보에 대한 거래량이 엄청나게 높았습니다.

비탈릭은 예측 시장의 민주적이고 진실을 추구하는 특성을 강조하며 2020년대의 대표적인 소셜 기술로 예측 시장을 지지합니다.

폴리 마켓 트윗에 대한 엘론 머스크의 답변

일론 머스크는 트윗에 "네"라고 간단히 답했고, 이는 토론과 추측을 촉발시켰습니다.

"커뮤니티 노트"와 비탈릭의 개입에 대한 언급은 일론의 답변에 대한 호기심을 더했습니다.

이 사건은 사람들이 추가적인 암호화폐 업데이트를 위해 Bankless 뉴스레터에 가입하도록 유도할 만큼 충분한 관심을 불러일으켰습니다.