2024년 선거: 의회 통제권 및 주요 선거

### 2024년 선거 환경 주요 선거구 및 입법적 시사점
* 🗳 도널드 트럼프와 카말라 해리스는 수많은 선거 공약을 내세웠지만, 법으로 제정되기 위해서는 **의회의 승인이 필요**하기 때문에 다가오는 선거가 매우 중요합니다.
* 🏛 현재 **공화당이 하원을, 민주당이 상원을 장악**하고 있어 의회가 양분되어 있어 정부 셧다운 가능성과 입법 결과에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.
* 📊 하원 의석 3석이 공석인 민주당은 **2석을 차지할 것으로 예상**되지만, 상원에서 **4석을 추가로 뒤집어야 과반**을 확보할 수 있는 반면 공화당은 **2석만 뒤집으면 됩니다.**
* 🌄 몬태나 주에서는 민주당 상원의원 존 테스터가 공화당 후보를 크게 지지하는 주에서 **트럼프가 지지하는 공화당 후보 팀 시히와의 재선에 도전**하고 있습니다.
* 🌵 한편, 텍사스에서는 민주당의 콜린 앨레드 의원이 공화당의 테드 크루즈 상원의원에게 도전장을 내밀며 **중도 정책을 강조**하고 변화하는 인구 통계에 호소하고 있습니다.
* 💰 올레드는 기금 모금에서 **크루즈를 앞섰지만, 특히 2018년 크루즈가 베토 오루크를 가까스로 꺾은 이후 텍사스는 여전히 민주당에게 힘든 격전지**로 남아 있습니다.
* 📅 하원에서 민주당은 2022년에 **바이든에서 공화당으로 바뀐 지역구**를 중심으로 다가오는 선거에서 **4석의 순이익**을 확보해야 합니다.
* 🗞 이 선거의 결과는 특히 **낙태권 및 세금 정책**과 같은 문제와 관련하여 2025년의 입법 의제를 크게 형성할 것이며, 이는 전국적으로 모든 경쟁 선거의 중요성을 강조합니다.

분열된 의회는 낙태와 이민과 같은 주요 이슈에 대한 향후 정책을 결정할 중요한 선거를 앞두고 있습니다.

no tax on overtime, a pathway to citizenship, take other countries' jobs, restore reproductive freedoms. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have made a lot of promises on the campaign trail. The vast majority of these promises have at least one thing in common: they need to get through the US Congress before becoming the law of the land. And right now, the high-stakes fight to control the Senate and the House remains a toss-up. Issues like the economy, abortion, and immigration are important to a lot of voters, and all of those items in one way, shape, or form are likely to be on Congress's agenda in 2025. This is a breakdown of the House and the Senate ahead of the 2024 election. Republicans control the House, and Democrats control the Senate, meaning we have a divided Congress. We live in a time where we're constantly veering from threatened government shutdown to threatened government shutdown, and which party controls the House and the Senate has consequences for how that process unfolds. The margins for either party to take control of both chambers of

Congress remains pretty slim, so any tight race could tip the scales. There are currently three vacant seats in the House. Democrats are expected to pick up two of those, and the remaining seat is expected to be Republican. But Democrats would still need to flip four additional seats to win a majority in the Senate. Republicans only need to flip two seats to win a majority. With West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin retiring this year, it's all but certain that a Republican will take his place, meaning Republicans really only need to win one Senate seat. One state that could determine the future of the Senate is Montana. Democratic Senator John Tester is up for reelection and facing a challenge by Tim Sheehy, a Trump-endorsed Republican and former Navy SEAL. Tester is a three-term incumbent, but he's serving a state that favors Trump and leans sharply red. Montanans have been totally clear with me: we need to return American strength to Washington, D.C. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won the state by 16 percentage points, and Republicans have swept all other

Statewide offices and secured a supermajority in the legislature. Voters are increasingly more tribal, so they really are understanding, Hey, if I want Donald Trump as president, I need to bring him a Republican Senate. Tester, he's really sort of running an uphill battle structurally against a solid Republican candidate in a state that's solidly Republican. Democrats have poured tens of millions of dollars into campaign spending and advertising for Tester, selling the message that he's a centrist politician who can work with Trump. I'm protecting our freedoms because Montanans don't like to be told how to live by anyone, especially the government. While Republicans gain momentum in Montana, Democrats are making headway in the Senate race in Texas. Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term, but Democratic Representative Colin Allred is standing in his way. Democrats see changing demographics in Texas, and they have gotten increasingly hopeful that they can win a statewide race. Allred is campaigning on centrist policies, talking tough on border security while also backing abortion rights in an

effort to appeal to a wider swath of voters. I stood up to Joe Biden on the border and to extremists like Ted Cruz, who prefer chaos to real solutions. Cruz straddles the line between conservative warrior and bipartisan legislator as he tries to maintain his base while also appealing to suburban swing voters. It's all about turning Texans out to keep Texas Texas. If you don't want a fiery firebrand conservative, Ted Cruz is not your man. So do you start going and looking at Colin Allred, who is talking about having a strong, secure border? Since entering the race, Allred has outraised and outspent Cruz. But this isn't the first time Cruz has faced a tough challenge by a Democrat. During the 2018 midterms, then-Representative Beto O'Rourke pulled similarly to how Allred pulls now. He lost to Cruz but only by a slim margin. Texas is still a challenge for Democrats. When Cruz last ran for re-election in 2018, that was a presidential midterm year. It was a year that Democrats did very well nationwide.

people were very energized by the idea of getting out to vote against the party of President Trump. Now, let's look at the House. All 435 seats are up for reelection in 2024, but Democrats only need to win a net of four seats in the House to take the majority. And right now, there are multiple contentious races in California and New York. They are really targeting districts where Biden won in 2020, but a Republican won those seats in 2022, and Democrats see those as their prime pickup locations. Republicans, that's where they have to defend the most. The House Democrats' campaign arm had around $87 million at the end of August, roughly $16 million more than the Republicans' group. Abortion was a big issue in the '22 election. It has continued to be a big issue since then, and so in a lot of these districts where the voters might be somewhat more moderate, if they see reproductive rights as more under threat, you could also imagine that shaping folks' decisions. There are multiple significant policy decisions on the 2025 legislative agenda.

that have to be addressed, and whichever party is in the majority will have a huge say in their outcome. A big item on the agenda of the new Congress and the new president is going to be what to do about the expiration of the Trump tax cuts on abortion. One of the big questions that people have about what would happen if Republicans have unified party control is would they try to legislate a nationwide abortion ban. Exactly how that process unfolds, what it looks like, is going to be affected by the exact balance of power, which parties have majorities in the two Chambers, who's in the White House. But it's not just these states that could influence who will take control of the House and the Senate. Any race has the potential to remake the next Congress of the United States. There are a number of other competitive Senate races in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania, and then in the House, given just how narrow control of the House is right now for Republicans, really any one of those races, whether it's in New York, California, or another

state could be what determines which party has a majority in the House.

The Four Congressional Races That Will Decide the President’s Power | WSJ

The Wall Street Journal takes you inside carefully selected stories and events in a visually captivating way so you can dig deeper into the news and insights that matter to you. 

The Wall Street Journal

의회를 장악하기 위한 치열한 싸움

도널드 트럼프와 카말라 해리스는 의회의 승인이 필요한 수많은 선거 공약을 내세웠지만, 상원과 하원의 통제권은 여전히 미지수입니다.

현재 양분된 의회는 민주당이 상원에서 4석을 추가로 확보해야 하고 공화당은 2석만 확보하면 되는 등 어느 한 정당이 의회를 장악할 수 있는 여지가 희박합니다.

민주당의 현직 상원의원인 존 테스터가 트럼프가 지지하는 공화당의 팀 시히 후보의 도전에 직면한 몬태나주 상원 선거는 상원의 미래를 결정짓는 중요한 선거가 될 수 있습니다.

몬태나와 텍사스의 정치적 역학 관계

공화당은 몬태나주에서 기세를 올리고 있는 반면, 민주당은 텍사스주 상원 선거에서 약진하고 있습니다.

몬태나주의 민주당 후보인 존 테스터는 막대한 선거 자금 지출에도 불구하고 공화당 후보를 상대로 힘겨운 싸움을 벌이고 있습니다.

텍사스에서는 민주당의 콜린 앨레드 하원의원이 공화당의 테드 크루즈 상원의원에게 중도 정책을 내세우며 변화하는 인구 통계에 호소하고 있지만, 텍사스는 민주당에게 여전히 어려운 도전입니다.

2024년 선거와 의회에 미치는 영향

민주당이 2024년에 하원 과반수를 차지하려면 2020년에는 바이든이 승리했지만 2022년에는 공화당이 차지한 지역구를 대상으로 하원에서 4석을 확보해야 합니다.

하원 민주당의 선거 캠프는 8월 말 현재 8,700만 달러의 재정적 우위를 점하고 있습니다.

낙태와 트럼프 감세 만료와 같은 주요 이슈가 입법 의제를 형성할 것이며, 의회의 권력 균형은 새 대통령의 의제에 매우 중요합니다.

하원 다수당에 대한 주 대표의 영향력

주별 분포는 하원의 다수당을 결정하는 데 중요한 역할을 합니다.

인구가 많은 주에는 더 많은 대표자가 있어 더 큰 영향력을 행사할 수 있습니다.

이러한 불균등한 분포는 주의 정치적 성향에 따라 한 정당이 하원을 지배하는 결과를 초래할 수 있습니다.