The trend of the job market declining is indeed true, but how long will this last? Hello everyone, this is Bit. Just back in February of this year, when Bitcoin reached 57k, everyone was cheering, toasting, and popping champagne. However, the atmosphere around 57k now is completely different from the beginning of this year. By August and September, the situation around 57k will have changed. But we always need to remember that this too shall pass. After all, the price in February, when it was 57k, is the same as now at 57k. The only difference is that our minds and bodies are exhausted, and our mentality is breaking down, which makes it difficult. If you always keep this in mind, I hope you can overcome this tough period well. Unfortunately, the crypto market continues to be influenced by macro factors, at least until September.

There is a high possibility that the market will show mixed trends, fluctuating up and down, depending on the macroeconomic indicators released before the FOMC meeting. Furthermore, the JOLTS report released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Labor significantly fell short of expectations, indicating that the U.S. labor market is contracting sharply, which is increasing fears of a recession. On the other hand, the GDP report from the Atlanta Fed released today slightly exceeded expectations, suggesting that GDP is holding up. Currently, the data is offsetting each other. However, the most important data will be from today and tomorrow. In a way, the JOLTS report has relatively low credibility, and it is crucial that the ADP non-farm employment figures, which will be announced this evening, come out well. In the past, when the labor market was too strong, it was preferable for the numbers to be low, but...

Right now, if the figures fall short of expectations, there is a growing concern that it could lead to a recession, which is causing the market to react significantly. Therefore, it would be best to see numbers that align exactly with the expectations—neither too cold nor too hot. Additionally, in the case of unemployment claims, especially during such a sensitive period in the labor market, it can be a major factor that shakes the market, so it’s essential to monitor it closely. 

The most important thing is the non-farm payroll data and the unemployment rate that will be announced tomorrow, Friday. Currently, the market consensus suggests that the labor market will show some recovery compared to previous figures, and the unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. However, we will have to wait and see. Therefore, I encourage you to closely observe how the employment indicators trend until this Friday and respond accordingly. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that...

What is the countless fact? From job reports to hiring rates, and resignation and termination rates, all indicators show that the overall situation is entering a downturn. However, the important part is this: it is true that the trend in the job market is declining, but we need to check how long this will last. The termination rate, which can be seen as a lagging indicator of employment metrics, is rising sharply. An increase in the termination rate confirms that the job market has indeed entered a period of recession. If that is the case, will the recession continue, or will there be a shift in the trend? To observe this, we need to look at the trend of job postings on Indeed, the largest job platform in the U.S., which can be seen as a leading indicator of employment metrics. Since last year, the trend of job postings on Indeed has been declining due to the contraction of the job market.

Since May, there has been a sideways trend, and recently, we have seen a slight upward movement in job postings. If this continues, we can expect that the upcoming non-farm payroll figures and unemployment rate will show a less severe outcome than predicted. This could lead the market to regain its confidence in a soft landing scenario and potentially recover sufficiently. However, if the actual figures deviate significantly from the predictions, with non-farm payrolls falling well short and the unemployment rate exceeding expectations, it would indicate a recession becoming certain before the FMC meeting, which could cause considerable turbulence. On a somewhat positive note, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggests that price pressures are expected to stabilize in the coming months, citing that the overall labor market has been stable and has shown an increasing trend in recent weeks.

It is true that the market has sharply contracted, but if we look at the recent trends in job postings on Indeed, we can see that it has been stabilizing and slowly starting to rise again. Therefore, while the job market is currently moving sideways, it could also decline further and contract again. However, right now, we are facing a short-term trend with the FMC just around the corner. If the job market shows even a slight recovery in the short term, it could lead to a scenario where the contraction is somewhat alleviated. Additionally, due to concerns about a recession, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen from 34% to around 40% last week, increasing expectations for a rate cut. Many people believe that a rate cut acknowledges a recession and is a move to stimulate the economy, which is why there are concerns about a market crash. I agree with that sentiment. Temporarily lowering interest rates...

The reduction means that the market is in distress, struggling, and may face a recession, which is why the Federal Reserve is implementing monetary policy. Therefore, there may be short-term fluctuations, but in the long term, what is the situation? Ultimately, the policy aims to supply liquidity to the market and provide stimulus, which is precisely what interest rate cuts do. This means that while there may be significant volatility in the short term, in the long term, it can inject liquidity into the market and facilitate recovery. More importantly, Bitcoin is very sensitive to the flow of liquidity compared to other assets. If there is a 50 basis point cut and interest rates are significantly lowered, it could lead to a positive long-term trend in the Bitcoin market. However, the safest scenario, in my view, would be to lower rates by 25 basis points, taking a baby step towards a reduction, and maintaining a balanced economy that is neither too cold nor too hot, resulting in a soft landing.

The best scenario, in fact, is for Powell to adjust the interest rates moderately rather than making a significant cut. Regardless, when observing the movements of other countries outside the U.S., a rate cut by the Federal Reserve seems almost certain, at about 90%. In North America, which is very friendly and close to the U.S., Canada is actually concerned that the central bank is seeing inflation fall too much. Due to worries about an economic recession, there could be additional rate cuts. This time, they also reduced the rate by 25 basis points as part of a coordinated effort. Moreover, the indication of further cuts due to declining inflation and recession concerns suggests that the U.S. will likely begin significant rate cuts in September, with Powell doing his best to prevent a recession. Recently, concerns about an economic downturn have impacted the spot price of Bitcoin.

ETFs have seen significant outflows as institutions have begun to take profits, resulting in a large three-digit outflow. However, the outflow has now decreased to double digits, indicating a gradual slowdown in the massive outflows. We are currently entering a phase where this outflow is becoming more moderate. Therefore, it is important for you to monitor whether the ETFs will pivot today in the U.S. markets or if there will be additional outflows. This will help determine whether we can maintain support at the 56k level and if there will be a short-term increase, or if further adjustments will occur. 

As for Korean investors, the situation is as follows: aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, most people hold 90% to 100% of their portfolios in altcoins. Many are wondering, I understand that Bitcoin will rise in the medium to long term, but what will happen to the altcoin market? Is it really an altcoin season, or will it rise?

Is there no possibility? If you ask that, I would say that it is still early for altcoins to experience a significant rise. There is always a cycle and order in the market. The major trend of Bitcoin, the big brother, needs to be firmly established. Only then will the younger siblings, the altcoins, start to move. Bitcoin has not yet fully entered the upward trend for the second half, so the time to pay attention to altcoins is, in my opinion, when Bitcoin breaks through the upper resistance of 69k and re-enters the 70k range. At that point, we will be starting the second half of the game. Therefore, until Bitcoin, the big brother, clearly breaks through 70k in an upward trend, altcoins will likely need some time. However, one important thing to note is that, unlike Bitcoin, altcoins have already...

In 2021, we broke through the peak, but altcoins haven't even come close to their two-year highs, and they are currently in a state of significant decline compared to the 2021 peak. This is the total market cap chart for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the trend line for Total 3 is well supported, it could certainly hold this range and buy some time. However, it cannot be denied that we are in a relatively undervalued area. Therefore, it is true that the current situation for altcoins is not good. But if we look at it from another perspective, the fact that the altcoin market is currently contracted can also be interpreted as an undervaluation. For this reason, the altcoins that can truly survive in the medium to long term, those with growing projects and real substance, may undergo additional corrections when they approach the trend line.

If you can configure your ports well up to the point of contact, I believe that Bitcoin will surely revive and during the latter part of the cycle, there will be a significant opportunity for returns. Historically, cycles have flowed in a similar manner. The cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 all reached a bottom, and when the realization of gains and losses temporarily increased, we experienced the first bull run. After that, there was a correction, and as the realization of gains and losses peaked, the second bull run came. After hitting the bottom in 2017, we saw the first bull run followed by the second bull run, which led Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs. In the 2021 cycle, we also hit a bottom, and after the first bull run, we entered a euphoric phase, finishing with the second phase. So, where are we now? We are at a position similar to the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2023.

First, it hit the floor, and then it recently updated the historical peak of Bitcoin, surpassing 100 million. The realized profit and loss have significantly increased. Now, after passing the low point, we still have a period left before officially entering Phase 2. In every cycle, Phase 2 has always existed, and the profit and loss ratio has soared like this, allowing everyone to make money from Bitcoin. That moment has not yet arrived, so I believe the season has not ended. The moment we officially enter Phase 2 will be the point when altcoins can come back to life. Therefore, you need to be patient and wait for this moment. Currently, in terms of the pattern, it is forming a significant reversal pattern known as Cup and Handle. Right now, it is creating the handle, but how long this handle will last is still uncertain.

I don't know if it will be created, but where does the full-scale outburst of the curve handle occur? Creating this handle and breaking through the upper point of the handle is the time when the new second phase of the page can really start. Therefore, breaking through the top of this wedge is, I believe, the most important prerequisite for the second bull market phase. With the U.S. presidential election approaching, the political aspects are also greatly influencing the crypto market. Finally, Harris announced that she would accept donations in cryptocurrency using Coinbase. If they accept donations in cryptocurrency while planning to kill the cryptocurrency market, that would lead to a coup. Therefore, in the end, what does this acknowledge? It suggests that they will accept and embrace the cryptocurrency market to some extent and support the cryptocurrency industry. Additionally, there is very encouraging news about a fund of 380 trillion won.

The Swiss bank, Liechtenstein Cantonal Bank, which ranks third in the country, has officially launched Bitcoin and virtual asset trading services. So, how is it changing now? Traditional legacy mega financial institutions, not only in the United States but also in global financial hubs around the world, are changing their perceptions and approaches toward virtual assets. The shift in the perception of Bitcoin from the past to now is clearly evident. Recently, Roundhill Investments has launched an Ethereum covered call ETF, which includes Ethereum options. What does this mean? More and more derivatives related to Bitcoin and Ethereum are emerging, and institutional investors' accessibility is increasing. Although prices fluctuate up and down, the direction of expansion in this industry continues to progress steadily. Also, you all...

You should know that until 2020, there were no public companies holding Bitcoin. In other words, there were no companies that owned Bitcoin at all. However, now, without exception, both public and private companies are continuously accumulating Bitcoin and trying to hold it as reserves. Will the market suddenly end, and will all companies sell their holdings? Or will the current trend continue to rise? It is highly likely that this trend will continue. Additionally, by the end of this year, there will be significant changes that make it very advantageous for companies to hold Bitcoin. Specifically, after December 15, 2024, the accounting for Bitcoin will officially change to fair value accounting. Therefore, if these accounting standards are upgraded, the number of companies around the world, such as MicroStrategy and recently listed US company Silvergate, that hold Bitcoin will increase significantly, whereas before, it was classified as an intangible asset.

If accounting standards are established that allow for such treatment to be recognized as formal financial assets, we could see unexpected large tech companies adopting Bitcoin as reserves. This trend indicates that, with Bitcoin ETFs allowing institutions to enter the market and corporations holding Bitcoin, the long-term macro demand will inevitably increase. However, the short-term uncertainty in the crypto market is evident as a New York court has issued subpoenas against major crypto venture capital firms, including Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures, regarding Uniswap. It seems that an investigation related to securities law is about to take place. Given the significant stakes involved, it could influence short-term volatility, so it would be wise to keep an eye on this situation. Recently, there have also been significant developments.

There has been positive news: John Deaton, known as the representative lawyer for Ripple, has won the Republican nomination in the Senate primary election. So, who will John Deaton face? He will compete against Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler, who are known for their anti-cryptocurrency stance. This woman will face off against him in the Senate race this November. What this means is that the primary election between pro-cryptocurrency and anti-cryptocurrency candidates could have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Given the current momentum, John Deaton is expected to be favored, and it is hoped that he will decisively defeat Elizabeth Warren. If he can bring a crypto-friendly approach to politics, it would demonstrate the political advantages and the strength of crypto investors' power. Additionally, there is another encouraging piece of news from the Japanese Financial Services Agency.

There has been very important news regarding the review of the taxation method that considers cryptocurrency as a financial asset. In Japan, for instance, a 45% crypto income tax rate was applied to individuals earning over 40 million yen in annual income. However, there is now a discussion about a bill that proposes to reduce the tax rate on crypto income, similar to the capital gains tax applied to stocks and other securities. If such legislation is passed, it could lead to a significant increase in demand for the crypto market among individual investors in Japan, which is a major capitalist economy and market. Additionally, the expansion of the USDC stablecoin continues, with the Latin American app, Contino, supplying USDC to 33 countries.

The use of USDC, a US-based stablecoin, is expanding in Latin America. In the case of Coinbase, users can purchase Circle's Euro stablecoin, URC, for free on the Coinbase platform and send it worldwide. The core feature is that it allows for transactions without fees on its own Layer 2 platform, the Base Protocol. This means that USDC is being expanded in Latin America, while Circle's Euro stablecoin is also making strides in Europe. Ultimately, stablecoins are expanding globally and becoming commercialized, which is a crucial aspect of the growth and expansion of the cryptocurrency market. Regardless, the fundamentals and essence continue to strengthen and expand. In the short term, on-chain data also indicates...

If we check a few things, we can see that the realized supply ratio of long-term holders has increased significantly. The common factor during this increase is that Bitcoin is in a bearish trend. When the price is falling, an increase in the realized supply of long-term holders can be interpreted as the beginning of a more serious decline. However, when this ratio rises during a bullish market, it suggests that the increase in the supply ratio of long-term holders could indicate a good dip period in a strong upward trend. Currently, we are seeing the highest realized supply ratio of long-term holders in this cycle, which implies that while others are selling, long-term holders are actually accumulating and gathering more. Additionally, looking at the realized market capitalization flow of long-term holders in the HODL wave, it usually indicates that the market is...

In the lowest point of the market, the realized market cap of long-term holders is very high. On the other hand, near the peak of the cycle, the realized market cap of long-term holders hits a low. But compared to that, what is the situation now? As Bitcoin has risen, the realized market cap of long-term holders has been decreasing, but following the recent correction, it has started to rise again. If we look at the past cycle, when we reach the peak, the ratio of long-term holders should drop to the levels seen in the past. However, there are still many long-term holders, which means they are still waiting for the later stages and have not realized their profits. It is not yet the time to sell all their holdings and realize profits like in the past at the peak. This is what the current realized market cap of long-term holders is showing. Furthermore, since Bitcoin is moving sluggishly, there is a possibility that this time will be different and that it will not follow the past halving patterns.

After the Bitcoin season ends, if you say that it can be twisted and manipulated, the actual data does not lie. If you compare the flow of Bitcoin between the cycles of 2017 and 2021 with the current one, you will see that it is not going in a completely different direction from the past cycles. The blue line represents 2017, and the green line represents the 2021 cycle. The past cycles and waves are just following the trend well, so we are not going in a strange direction at all. The Bitcoin price is just stagnant and sluggish, but it is following the past patterns exactly. I hope you keep this in mind. Thank you sincerely for watching today's video. If you found the video helpful, please like and subscribe. If you want to know more detailed investment strategies, I have opened a Telegram information room linked in the fixed comment at the bottom of the video. Please join and check the market trends, and I wish you continued success in your crypto investments.

Thank you sincerely for watching, and here we have Beat Catcher.

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코인시장 운명을 결정할 '결전의 날' 비트코인 "여기에 모든 것이 달렸다"

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