중국 기술 및 반도체 시장 전망

### 중국 기술 부문의 낙관론: 단기, 중기, 장기적 관점
* 📉 많은 투자자들이 중국에 대해 회의적인 시각을 보였지만, **미국 및 기타 선진국 시장에 비해 저평가된 것**으로 보이며 이는 잠재적인 투자심리 변화를 시사합니다.
* 📈 중국 기술 시장은 **모멘텀과 품질**이 특징이며, 전망의 완만한 상향 조정에도 불구하고 **추가 상승 가능성**이 있다는 믿음이 있습니다.
* 🔍 중국 본토의 반도체 부문은 국가가 지원하고 전략적으로 중요한 분야로 간주되어 **투자자에게 유리한 분야**이지만, 선진국의 잠재적 규제로 인해 장기적으로는 주의가 필요합니다.
* ⚠ 과거 중국의 상승장 이후 급격한 하락장의 패턴은 투자자들의 손실 가능성에 대한 우려를 불러일으키므로 **시장 상황을 면밀히 모니터링**할 필요가 있습니다.
* 💰 금리가 인하되고 경제가 확장됨에 따라 낙관론이 강해지면서 **기관 및 개인 자금이 반도체 부문으로 유입**되고 있으며, 이는 더 많은 참여를 유도할 수 있습니다.
* 🌐 무역 및 공급망 리스크가 큰 것으로 여겨지지만, **기술 제품에 대한 강한 수요**는 중국 주식과 글로벌 반도체 시장 투자자들에게 어느 정도 안도감을 주고 있습니다.
* 📊 10년 만기 국채 수익률 **4%는 거시경제적 요인도 고려**해야 하지만, 경제와 고용 시장의 전반적인 강세는 **기업 실적과 반도체 부문에 여전히 긍정적**입니다.

중국 기술 시장은 저평가되어 있어 장기적인 불확실성에도 불구하고 상당한 상승 잠재력을 지니고 있습니다.

When you're weighing up the factors in the context of China Tech, what were the things that you were looking at short, medium, and long term? And thanks for having me. I think we have been skeptical on China, as many people are, but I think is really how undervalued China has been versus, say, the US or other developed markets and also the fact US position has been very light. I mean, for us, we have been underweight for quite a sustained period of time. So I think that that is shifting and I think the Chinese market is a very momentum-driven, very quality-driven. So we have seen both happening and I think we would like to participate in this rally. This probably has more to go. And in terms of Chinese tech, I mean, obviously undervalued, very unloved versus the US counterpart. Obviously, there are different, but still we think that there is still much

upside potential from here. But having said that, we, I mean, we just upgraded modestly. I think there's still a lot of question marks for the longer term. Emily's reporting just in that conversation was largely about some of the domestic chip names in China. What's your attitude towards the semiconductor sector in mainland China? Yes, I think it is obviously a very state-supported sector. It has been for a while long term. Why? So I think it makes sense for investors to favor the sector, given basically I think the new tech, the semiconductor strategic areas of, you know, those equities have, you know, should do well given how important that is. But ultimately, we have to understand that a lot of developed economies are likely to still be skeptical and, you know, have restrictions of all sorts on those companies' products. So I would say I would participate in the rally. I do think that it has further to go, but I would be a bit more cautious over

longer term. And we have to kind of understand where to take profits when it is necessary to that point. Janet, do you think that people are protecting to the downside enough? Do we think a lot of people are going to get burned once again? I mean, it is potentially possible. We have seen that play out before in the previous bull market cycle and then a very sharp bear market in China. We have seen that play out again and again. But I think it could last for quite a bit, as I said, given how large the positioning, how underweight it is for global investors. So I would say it could have further to run in the next, you know, a couple of months at least. I think the Chinese authorities, their heads are tied. They would just have to provide more stimulus. But you're right, there is absolutely a chance for some investors to get burned. And so that's why we have to monitor it.

very closely. What's been interesting is there's been institutional money flowing in. David Tepper saying how much he's liking China and also retail. I want to get your check just more broadly on sentiment towards semiconductors globally, technology globally. Where are we seeing the optimism still in institutional money or is it now sort of retail? And we question that for the longevity. Um, I think both. I think for us, for example, we still like the global semiconductor sector. Obviously, that's mostly us play. So I think there's a lot of structural supportive drivers behind that. We are very happy to get exposure to those high-quality companies. I think for institutions, I think it will be very dangerous if you don't participate in the semiconductor that I relate of theme. I think for retail investors is I think once the momentum is back, I think that will draw in more participation, particularly as interest

rates are being cut. The economy continues to expand, and hopefully less bad news out there on the headlines. I think that could help. Overall, we still like the sector pretty much. We have stayed invested, and we continue to encourage investors to add in more money when valuations have turned attractive. So, in the past couple of months, Janet, when you got to your desk this morning in London, how big a factor or risk was trade risk or supply chain risk for technology investors around the world? Obviously, it is part of the consideration given that, you know, the industry is very, you know, the supply chain is very complicated. And if there's, well, widespread trade protectionism, then obviously that's not great. But fundamentally, the demand is still very strong. And I think what we are a bit more reassured now is that if you look at the polls on the, you know, the probability of winning the election by betting

market has gone down. Obviously, it is a very tight race, but it gives us a bit of comfort to be a bit more positive on the China equities story and also the global semiconductor play. But I think ultimately, fundamentally, it is about the demand, the long-term build-up of air infrastructure, and how, you know, strategically important that sector is thoughtful, many sovereigns out there. Janet, how important therefore when you sat down was the 4% number on the ten-year yield in that macro context for these events? Well, the thing is, yeah, we saw youth go back to 4%. I think some small, small to be cast-offs could be struggling a little bit today. But we still see some of the key semiconductor stocks are rising. Obviously, it is very specific. But what we think is, you know, I think, yeah, a strong economy, good job market ultimately is good for the world.

economy, for the US, for corporate earnings, etc. I wouldn't look too much into this one-day move for equities. If they're down or struggling a little bit, I would still be quite comfortable to be overweight in the US, certainly in the U.S. semiconductor space.

Chinese Chip Stocks Are in Rally Mode

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차이나 테크에 투자하기: 단기, 중기, 장기적 관점

발표자는 중국에 대해 회의적이지만 미국 및 기타 선진 시장에 비해 저평가되어 있다고 지적합니다.

중국 시장의 모멘텀과 품질에 변화가 나타나고 있으며, 이는 추가 성장 가능성을 시사합니다.

중국의 반도체 부문은 국가의 지원을 받고 있으며 전략적으로 중요하지만 선진국의 잠재적 규제로 인해 신중한 태도를 유지하고 있습니다.

많은 투자자가 잠재적 손실로부터 자신을 적절히 보호하지 못해 특히 중국 시장 사이클의 맥락에서 화상을 입을 가능성이 있다는 우려가 있습니다.

현재 글로벌 투자자들의 포지션은 비중 축소 상태이며, 이는 중국 당국의 부양책에 힘입어 향후 몇 달 동안 시장이 더 성장할 수 있음을 시사합니다.

글로벌 반도체 부문에 대한 긍정적인 전망과 함께 기관 및 개인 자금이 시장에 유입되고 있어 모멘텀이 형성되면 참여가 늘어날 가능성이 있습니다.

기술 부문에 대한 긍정적인 전망

금리가 인하되고 경제가 확장되면서 부정적인 뉴스가 줄어들고 있어 기술 업종에 대한 긍정적인 전망이 이어지고 있습니다.

무역 및 공급망 리스크에도 불구하고 견조한 수요와 중국의 치열한 선거 경쟁이 투자자들에게 안도감을 주고 있습니다.

10년 만기 수익률 4%로 인해 일부 소형주들이 어려움을 겪고 있지만 주요 반도체 주가는 상승하고 있어 경기 호조와 양호한 고용 시장을 시사하고 있습니다.

주식의 하루 움직임은 하락세를 보이더라도 지나치게 분석해서는 안 됩니다.

미국, 특히 반도체 업종에 대한 비중확대 포지션을 유지하는 것이 좋습니다.

미국 기업 실적은 여전히 주요 관심사입니다.