멕시코의 무역 급증: 중국에서 미국으로의 전환

### 니어쇼어링 붐: 멕시코, 미국 수입에서 중국을 추월하다
* 🚛 텍사스주 엘파소에서는 수천 대의 트럭이 멕시코로 상품을 운송하고 있으며, **2023년 멕시코가 중국을 제치고 4,750억 달러로 대미 최대 수입국**이 될 것으로 예상되는 가운데 중요한 변화가 일어나고 있습니다.
* 📈 전년 대비 **200억 달러 증가한 멕시코로부터의 수입 증가**는 중국과의 무역 긴장, 멕시코의 제조업 기반 성장, 미국산 수입품을 자국으로 들여오려는 노력에 따른 것입니다.
* 🏭 중국 기업들이 관세를 회피하기 위해 멕시코를 미국 시장의 '뒷문'으로 활용하면서 **중국에서 멕시코로의 컨테이너 교역이 전년 대비 22% 증가**한 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 💼 머스크와 DHL 같은 물류 회사는 국경 운영에 막대한 투자를 하고 있으며, **창고 부지를 매입**하고 늘어나는 물동량을 처리하기 위해 **크로스도킹 시설을 개선**하고 있습니다.
* 📊 북미자유무역협정과 그 후속 협정인 USMCA는 이러한 무역을 촉진하여 **멕시코에서 변형된 중국 제품이 멕시코 제품으로 인정**받고 관세를 피할 수 있도록 합니다.
* 🔍 미국 관세국경보호청은 화물 검사에서 중요한 역할을 담당하고 있으며, **2022년에 이슬라타-사라고사 다리를 통과하는 트럭은 65만 대가 넘을 것**으로 예상되어 무역 흐름 모니터링의 중요성을 강조하고 있습니다.
* ⚠ 그러나 멕시코의 정치적 불확실성, 관세, 보안 문제와 같은 문제는 기업들이 복잡한 무역 규제 환경을 헤쳐나가면서 **니어쇼어링 트렌드에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.**
* 🌟 이러한 장애물에도 불구하고 상당한 외국인 투자에 힘입어 **2028년까지 멕시코의 대미 제조업 수출이 6,090억 달러**에 달할 것으로 예상되는 등 전망은 여전히 긍정적입니다.

멕시코의 제조업과 무역이 급증하면서 미국의 수입 역학관계가 재편되고 있으며, 중국을 제치고 최대 상품 공급국으로 부상했습니다.

On this road in El Paso, Texas, stretching as far as the eye can see, thousands of trucks make their way back to Mexico after dropping billions of dollars' worth of goods bound for U.S. consumers. This is a scene that you see every day. Millions of dollars' worth of product are coming in from Mexico into the United States. For the first time in more than two decades, Mexico overtook China as the largest importer of goods to the U.S. Mexican goods imported to the U.S. totaled $475 billion in 2023, about $20 billion higher than the previous year. During that same period, Chinese goods imported to the U.S. came to $427 billion, $110 billion less than the year prior. And imports from Mexico are still climbing. In the first eight months of this year, U.S. imports from Mexico reached $334 billion, 5.8% higher

than the same period in 2023. Fueling that trend are simmering trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, an effort to bring U.S. imports closer to home, and a burgeoning Mexican manufacturing base. But there's another factor at play: to avoid American tariffs, Chinese companies are using Mexico as a back door to the U.S. With what you're moving within Mexico itself, the finished product. How much of those Chinese goods actually stay in Mexico and how much roughly do you think those Chinese products come here to the United States? I think there's a huge market for Chinese product in Mexico, but the big ticket item here is the U.S. market. That's why China's coming to Mexico. What we're trying to do is bring stuff from all over the world to Mexico, manufacture here, and send it again abroad. Chinese car companies, for example, are setting up shop in Mexico. Tariffs on Chinese goods date back to

2018, when the Trump administration launched a trade war with China. To take advantage of the Mexican trade, logistics companies like Maersk, DHL, and Uber Freight are ramping up their investments on both sides of the border. These companies are coming to Texas. It's a wild, wild west, where they are buying up land to secure warehouse space. At the center of it all is U.S. Customs and Border Protection, one of the world's largest law enforcement agencies with over 60,000 employees. We will do a complete inspection on it, from instruments of terror to narcotics to country of origin to manifest discrepancies, everything. More than 650,000 cargo trucks crossed Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge in El Paso, Texas, in 2022. So how is China able to circumvent U.S. tariffs, and what are logistics companies doing to

prepare for the upcoming boom in Mexican trade? CNBC travel to Mexico City in El Paso to find out. In an effort to avoid U.S. tariffs, Chinese companies are moving their raw materials and operations to Mexico. Jordan Dewart is the president of cross-border logistics company, Redwood Mexico. In addition to this 100,000 square foot warehouse in El Paso, the company also has about 200 employees in Mexico. How has the landscape changed since the start of the Trump trade war when it comes to Chinese manufacturing? Well, it's no secret there was a lot of pressure on Chinese companies after those trade wars, and I think we saw immediately an opportunity for Chinese companies to move to Mexico to kind of catch this Nearshoring wave. Ocean container data tracked by freight analytics firms Xeneta backs that up. We have seen 18 months in a row now with ever increasing

basically all-time high monthly imports from China to Mexico. Container traffic from China to Mexico has surged in recent years. From January to August 2024, China to Mexico container trade was up by 22% from the year prior. That's on top of container trade along the same route in 2023, up 33% from 2022. At the same time, China's container trade to the U.S. has slowed down. You see an ever-growing trend into Mexico. I think that's pretty clear to me that something is going on here. Someone is preparing for something, and it's not all going into Mexico consumers. VesselBot, which also tracks container flows, shows the three-month period from April to June recorded the highest volumes of Mexico exports to the U.S. this year. The North American Free Trade Agreement, implemented in 1994, eliminated most tariffs between the three

countries. The United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, went into effect four years ago. The agreement is up for renewal in 2026, and a focal point of those talks is expected to be trade with China. Chinese companies, if they import directly into the United States, they are faced with tariffs. If they bring their goods into Mexico, and those goods are improved upon, or some value added to them, they then qualify for the USMCA. In terms of what you have to do to have a product that's labeled Mexican, as opposed to Chinese in origin, you have to substantially transform it, which means it has to become a different product. So if I get a whole set of wooden boards, I turn that into a desk. I have substantially transformed that product. It has to change customs categories. Changing a product's economic nationality or

origin of goods means it can swap a Made in China label to a Made in Mexico one. An estimated $3.7 billion of Chinese foreign direct investments was made in Mexico in 2023, significantly higher than the previous decades. The Hofusan Industrial Park, 25 miles north of Monterrey, Mexico, is one example of that investment and is now home to at least 30 Chinese firms. In the past three years, nine Chinese car companies, including BYD and Chery, have set up operations in Mexico. What are you moving within Mexico? Is it more components to manufacturing plants? I think Chinese companies, when they establish themselves in Mexico, they were bringing finished goods in. Now they've moved on to raw materials, component parts. Back door has a connotation that they're doing something wrong. Just because you see a Mexican manufacturer using Chinese inputs does not mean that they're violating

any rules of origin. Simon Cohen is the founder and CEO of Henco, a logistics company that got its start in Monterrey, Mexico in 1998. The facility that we have behind us, it's one of the six facilities that we have in Mexico City. What we do here is we receive raw materials and finished goods from abroad. We tag them, we label them, we pack them, we repack them, and we deliver it to the distribution centers or final consumer. The company has about 1,000 employees, and in addition to its facilities in Mexico City, it has two others in Monterrey and another two coming online later this year. Roughly 20% to 30% of the goods here are shipped to the U.S., according to Cohen. The north part of Mexico is getting invaded with foreign investment, and people are coming from all over the world, from Asia, from Europe, from South America,

even from Africa. And they are trying to build plants and manufacturing facilities to enter the United States market. Not only are the Chinese setting up shop in Mexico with manufacturing plants, so are the European companies. They are moving their product away from China and they're setting up shop in Mexico. Some of the top ten companies importing into Mexico in 2024 include European companies like Pirelli Tires and SKF, a Swedish auto parts maker, as well as Tesla and General Motors. One key advantage, labor is often cheaper in Mexico than China, but its proximity to the U.S. might be its biggest advantage. The U.S. and Mexico share a 2,000-mile border with 47 active land ports of entry. Roughly 6 million U.S. jobs depend on trade with Mexico. The U.S. is also Mexico's largest export market. Mexican manufacturing represents about 40% of the

country's $1.3 trillion economy. The two countries also share a unique relationship when it comes to trade. During the cycle of production, materials and parts often cross the southwest border numerous times, while U.S. and Mexican factories work together to produce a good. As a result, 40% of the value of U.S. imports from Mexico are made of content produced in the U.S. Cars built in North America are believed to cross U.S. borders, including the border with Canada, eight times as they are being produced. That means, unlike imports from China, a large portion of the money U.S. consumers spend on Mexican imports goes back to U.S. companies and workers. Going back 30, 40 years, Mexico manufactured t-shirts and tequila. Now we're seeing much more sophisticated products from engines for airplanes, aerospace, automotive, electric vehicles.

Mexico produces 3.5 million vehicles annually. 76% of those are destined for the U.S. market. The top ten commodities traded between Mexico and the U.S. in June 2024 were vehicles, computers, and electrical machinery. But there are roadblocks ahead. Tesla announced in 2023 it was investing about $5 billion in a new factory in the northern Mexican city of Monterrey. However, that plan was put on hold after former President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on vehicles made in Mexico. Other headwinds facing companies investing in Mexico include security, worker availability, water scarcity, and Mexico's economic policies. What is the biggest threat to the Nearshoring boom? Politics. Tariffs. If tariffs are placed on Chinese goods, that will absolutely thwart the plan of these Chinese companies to backdoor their way into the U.S.

through the USMCA agreement, it will have a huge impact on those companies specifically. Juarez, one of Mexico's largest cities with about 1.6 million residents, is home to roughly 300 maquiladoras, or factories that take raw material and assemble them into finished products for foreign companies. To show you just how close we are to Mexico, right behind me is downtown El Paso. And a few miles away, two highways, over is Juarez, Mexico, and that's where the manufacturing facilities are located. For most trucks leaving Juarez, their first stop, Customs and Border Protection officers on the El Paso side of the border. Hi, how's it going? What do we have today? You don't have anything to declare in the cab of the truck? One box of water. Everything in order here? No one accompanying you or anything illegal? Ok, very good. Audan Ramos has been with the CBP for 27

years. We have officers doing up on our primary lane is checking all the trucks as they're walking by them to see if there's any anomalies, any changes made to that truck. Has an air tank been tampered? Modified? The rear doors of the trailer been opened without breaking the seal? On an average weekday, 2,430 trucks pass through this border. Most truck drivers make the trip 2 to 3 times a day. In addition to narcotics, human trafficking, and terrorism, officers of the Anti-Terrorism Contraband Enforcement Team and their colleagues are looking at the products being transported and their country of origin. We're looking where the product was made, where the final point of manufacture was, and that's what will determine country of origin. For these engines that we have behind us, not every single piece of the engine may have been manufactured in Mexico, but

that's where the final assembly and it was put together, that was in Mexico. Trucks are also checked by K-9 units, and drivers have their manifests vetted by officers. If an officer notices an irregularity, the truck could be sent for an X-ray exam or have its cargo offloaded for further inspection. The Ysleta crossing on the edge of El Paso, where this border is located, is the second largest after Laredo, Texas, for Mexico and U.S. trade. According to Ramos, it takes a trailer less than 30 minutes to clear U.S. customs. But as we found out, the return trip to Mexico can take much longer. In terms of the Mexican trade, we're looking at the volumes we were at the border, and the line of trucks heading back went on for miles. Why are we seeing such congestion over there?

And how does that impact, if you will, the U.S. supply chain? A lot of things are causing congestion here at the border. One is just the sheer volume of goods and the increase of trade that we're seeing come up from Mexico. But we're also seeing from time to time issues with Mexican customs clearance site and the ability to clear shipments going into Mexico. When that system goes down, it creates a massive backlog into the United States. It's a real problem. Once a truck clears El Paso customs, in most cases, it ends up at a cross-dock facility like this one. What exactly is cross-docking, and how is it done here? Well, goods that are manufactured in Mexico destined for the U.S. are typically loaded on a Mexican trailer. Those trailers can only come up to the U.S. side of the border about 30 miles in.

And then they're required to be cross-stocked onto a U.S. trailer so it can continue its destination into the United States. One benefit for logistics companies is the more touchpoints they have, and the more services they provide, the more money they can potentially make. This is a cross-docking facility. We've been to others. Do you have what we've seen at other places where Mexican drivers bring the product in, with their trailers, and then they go back? Yes. We're five minutes away from Ysleta International Bridge, and that was one of the key elements to find a location where Mexican drivers can come, drop their freight, and can go back to Mexico right away. But why don't U.S. logistics companies send their trucks and drivers to Mexico? We've seen that U.S. trucking companies have stopped sending their trucks into Mexico. They're just not getting the return and investment by

allowing that trailer to go all the way into Mexico. The companies that have picked up the slack are the Mexican trucking companies. The average annual salary for a Mexican driver is a little over $5,000. Mexican trucking companies face other challenges, too. Mexico has a shortage of 56,000 truck drivers, about 9% of its total driver workforce, and that number could double to reach 106,000 unfilled positions by 2028. The country is also facing record high diesel prices, soaring interest rates, as well as violence on its highways. On average, 50 cargo trucks are hijacked daily in Mexico. Even when trucking companies are able to get the trucks, they are struggling to have drivers get behind the wheels of these trucks and provide the capacity that we need. All of this goes into driving up transportation rates in Mexico. Despite those hurdles, logistics companies are

ramping up their operations at the border. The boom in nearshoring is leading to a plethora of investment from companies like Maersk, DHL, Uber Freight, even rail CPKC. In 2024, shipping giant Maersk opened a new 402,000 square foot cross-dock facility less than two miles from the Mexican border. We're at the new facility that Maersk has built, and while it may look empty, this is what they're envisioning for opportunity. In the world of logistics, you are building for tomorrow, you're not building for the here and now. The site has 73 dock doors and 116 spaces for trucks. When do you foresee this entire warehouse being filled? It's going to be a big challenge. I mean, it's a huge facility. There is a lot of competition in the market. Again, it's a matter of aligning Maersk asset,

aligning Maersk's competitiveness. Other logistics companies are expanding too. DHL's investment in Mexico started in 1985, in this warehouse, and since then, the volumes of trade that they have moved from Mexico have grown exponentially. In fact, over 5,800 packages are processed through this facility every day. Laredo is a hotspot for the cross-border peace. Just in June, we handled through Laredo or close to $30 billion in trade. We are crossing 18,000 trailers going north and south per day. We have seven different warehouses in Laredo, Texas, with over 1.5 million square foot to handle that kind of business. And even railroads are getting a slice of the action. CPKC is building a new railroad bridge from Laredo, Texas to Mexico, to handle the uptick in container traffic. The bridge will be constructed alongside an

existing one, and is expected to be operational in late 2024. The company has also launched a new train service for shippers linking Chicago and Kansas City to Monterrey, Mexico. The Nearshoring boom has the potential to boost Mexican manufacturing exports to the U.S. to $609 billion by 2028. Future growth, what are you guys anticipating? Well, I think the table is set. We've seen billions of dollars of foreign direct investment go into Mexico. That will translate into manufacturing facilities and finished goods destined for the United States. So we're very bullish on the outlook for Mexico, and we're investing heavily into this marketplace.

How China Uses Mexico To Avoid U.S. Tariffs

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미국 상품 수입국 1위로 급부상한 멕시코

멕시코는 2023년에 총 4,750억 달러의 수입액을 기록하며 중국을 제치고 최대 대미 상품 수입국으로 부상했습니다.

이러한 증가는 미국과 중국 간의 무역 긴장, 멕시코의 제조업 기반 성장, 미국의 관세를 피하기 위해 멕시코를 이용하는 중국 기업들에 의해 주도되고 있습니다.

물류 회사들은 국경 양쪽에 투자를 늘리고 있으며, 미국 세관국경보호국은 화물 트럭의 유입을 검사하는 데 중요한 역할을 하고 있습니다.

중국의 대멕시코 컨테이너 무역 급증

2024년 1월부터 8월까지 중국에서 멕시코로 향하는 컨테이너 트래픽은 전년 대비 22% 증가하며 크게 증가했습니다.

이러한 급증은 중국의 대멕시코 무역이 2022년에 비해 2023년에 33% 증가한 반면, 대미 무역은 둔화되는 더 큰 추세의 일부입니다.

중국 기업들은 2023년에 37억 달러의 외국인 직접 투자를 통해 멕시코에 막대한 투자를 하고 있으며, 완제품에서 원자재 및 부품으로 전환하고 있습니다.

저렴한 노동력과 미국과의 근접성에 매료된 중국과 유럽의 기업들이 미국 시장 진출을 위해 멕시코에 제조 공장을 설립하는 사례가 늘고 있습니다.

미국과 멕시코의 독특한 무역 관계는 소재와 부품이 국경을 여러 번 넘나들며 양국 경제에 도움이 되고 있습니다.

그러나 잠재적인 관세와 같은 정치적 요인은 니어쇼어링 붐에 상당한 위협이 되고 있습니다.

USMCA가 후아레스의 마킬라도라에 미치는 영향

300개의 마킬라도라가 있는 멕시코 후아레스는 외국 기업의 제품 조립에 중요한 역할을 하는 곳입니다.

엘파소 국경 검문소는 후아레스를 떠나는 트럭이 통과하는 주요 지점으로, 세관 및 국경 보호국 직원들이 철저한 검문을 실시합니다.

이슬레타 국경 통과는 미국-멕시코 무역에서 두 번째로 큰 규모이며, 트레일러가 미국 세관을 통과하는 데 30분도 걸리지 않지만 멕시코로 돌아오는 길은 종종 상당한 정체를 겪습니다.

멕시코 무역이 미국 공급망에 미치는 영향

멕시코와의 무역이 증가하면서 통관 문제로 인해 미국 국경에서 혼잡이 발생하고 있으며, 이로 인해 적체가 발생하고 있습니다.

크로스도킹은 멕시코 트레일러에서 미국 트레일러로 화물을 운송하는 데 사용되지만, 미국 트럭 운송 회사들은 낮은 투자 수익률로 인해 멕시코로 운전기사를 보내는 것을 중단했습니다.

멕시코 트럭 운송 회사들은 운전자 부족, 높은 경유 가격, 고속도로에서의 폭력 사태에 직면하여 운송 요금이 인상되고 있습니다.

니어쇼어링이 국경 운영에 미치는 영향

니어쇼어링은 미국-멕시코 국경에 위치한 머스크, DHL, Uber Freight와 같은 기업들의 상당한 투자를 이끌고 있습니다.

머스크의 새로운 402,000평방피트 규모의 시설은 미래의 물류 기회를 활용하는 것을 목표로 하고 있으며, DHL은 멕시코에 장기간 진출하여 기하급수적인 무역 성장을 이끌어냈습니다.

니어쇼어링의 붐은 2028년까지 멕시코의 대미 제조업 수출을 6090억 달러로 끌어올릴 것으로 예상되며, 외국인 직접 투자 증가와 CPKC의 철도 교량과 같은 새로운 인프라 프로젝트가 이러한 성장을 뒷받침할 것으로 전망됩니다.