Acquiring an aircraft carrier would mean gaining control over Taiwan. If we establish a naval base there and set up public facilities, we could dominate the Pacific. In that case, Japan and South Korea would have to submit to China. Professor, last time you were here, we discussed geopolitical issues and international affairs, and that video garnered over 2 million views. It was quite an honor. We're preparing for part two now. First, regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, as of August 2024, it still hasn't ended, right? What is the current situation, and when do you think it might conclude? I recall Trump making comments suggesting that if he were to be elected president, it would be resolved. He mentioned that it would already be over by the time he takes office. If that happens...

If it doesn't end, I said I would finish it in just one day, but right now, both sides are in a state of calm, and both are exhausted. Russia is tired, and Ukraine is even more tired. However, it is not easy for this war to come to an end. It cannot be resolved easily between the two countries because their demands are very different. From Ukraine's perspective, Russia is not as terrifying as it seems. What are the demands? Putin says, If you accept this, I will stop the war. He wants Ukraine to recognize the territories he currently occupies, specifically the eastern region of Donbas and Crimea, as Russian territory. How can they accept that? From Ukraine's standpoint, that would mean losing everything. That is Putin's demand, and Zelensky...

What the President of Ukraine is demanding is essentially for Russia to withdraw beyond its original borders. From Russia's perspective, this is not feasible because, for Putin, it would mean a complete defeat, which doesn't make sense. The conditions for both sides do not align. Yes, they will continue the war. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will actually determine the next steps. If Trump becomes president, there is a possibility that he will pressure Ukraine to accept ceasefire or peace conditions, stating that if they do not comply, they will not receive support. In this case, it would be difficult for Ukraine to continue the war because its national power cannot be compared to that of Russia. Therefore, the military and economic aid provided by the U.S. and European countries is crucial.

Right now, they are fighting, and if they say they will withdraw from the U.S., Ukraine won't be able to fight. So, there is a very high possibility that they will just accept Putin's conditions. However, they don't say that. Trump also claims he will definitely end it, but when asked how he will do that, he doesn't provide an answer. It's very clear, though. So, we have to wait until the U.S. elections are over. If Trump doesn't win and Harris, Biden's successor, takes over, it will likely continue in a similar way to Biden's approach. In that case, the war is likely to continue, and military support for Ukraine may even increase. This would put a lot of pressure on Russia as well. Even now, Russia is...

Right now, they are struggling. Russia is operating its weapon factories, but Ukraine is fighting so well that it is unexpectedly performing admirably. Because they are fighting so effectively, Russia is also in a difficult position. It's so dire that they even reached out to Kim Jong-un in North Korea for help. They received missiles and warheads, right? They say they received hundreds of thousands of 152mm shells. It must be really bad for them to resort to that. However, many of those shells are said to be duds. Is that true? Yes, that's what I've heard. There are shells that explode on the battlefield and others that don't, right? When they inspect those, they find that there are many defective products. Moreover, when listening to stories from defectors who escaped from North Korea, it seems that their weapons are in terrible condition. I wonder how their nuclear weapons are.

I don't know, but it was recently made, and since no one has tested it, well, the weapons made in the 70s and 80s were all stored in the armory. That armory probably wasn't well air-conditioned, so it must have been a mess due to humidity and heat over the decades. That's what people have been speculating. Nevertheless, even knowing that these weapons might be unreliable, Putin went to meet Kim Jong-un and said, Let's work together, help us out a bit. From Russia's perspective, it's a very frustrating situation. If Biden and the Western European countries continue to increase military support and economic aid to Ukraine, we can't predict what will happen to Russia. This discussion has somewhat shifted to China and its relationship with...

The reasons for wanting to occupy Taiwan, which has issues with China, are essentially two: one is to gain territory, particularly along the coast, and the other is related to semiconductors. However, I have heard that if China shows signs of invading Taiwan, they might blow up TSMC factories to prevent semiconductor technology from being transferred to Taiwan or the U.S. But can China really acquire semiconductor technology if they occupy Taiwan? They cannot acquire it, but they could destroy it. They could eliminate the TSMC factories in Taiwan. However, the people working there would likely leave. Those involved in the TSMC supply chain would have no choice but to relocate to Japan, the U.S., South Korea, or elsewhere before that happens. This is because those people do not want to live in China.

If a war breaks out, is it possible to escape in the meantime? I believe that somehow, it will happen. The key personnel are likely to be under a very high possibility of being blocked. If a direct military conflict occurs, it won't be easy for China either. They might completely surround Taiwan and impose a blockade, but the chances of the U.S. breaking through that blockade are quite high. Additionally, the people of Taiwan are likely to try to escape in any way they can. Moreover, what China is secretly coveting is the equipment used for semiconductor manufacturing. The advanced equipment currently in use includes DUV and EUV machines. The DUV machines are for producing chips that are around 15 to 20 nanometers or larger, which belong to the previous generation, while the EUV machines are used for cutting-edge technology below 10 nanometers.

The equipment used to make products is called EUV. However, the United States has blocked China from acquiring it, which is the reason for the EUV equipment. Because China lacks this technology, it is struggling to produce chips at 10 nanometers or below, such as 7 nanometers and 5 nanometers. They can produce them, but it costs an enormous amount because they are using older equipment. Therefore, they want to obtain EUV equipment. TSMC has a lot of it. However, the Dutch company ASML, which manufactures EUV equipment, along with Taiwan and the United States, has set up a system that can remotely disable this equipment. So, in the event of a war or any situation where the EUV technology might fall into China's hands, they can disable it completely.

Remote control is what makes it unusable. So, there is a chunk of metal, but it becomes non-operational. They have prepared such devices. You really can't possess them, but there are resistance measures that can be taken. Yes, that's right. So, semiconductors cannot be taken to Taiwan. However, this can be neutralized, right? For a considerable period, TSMC could be made to disappear from the earth. If that happens, it would be a fatal blow to all countries except China. That's correct. For example, in the U.S., companies like AMD, NVIDIA, and Apple all manufacture their semiconductors at TSMC. Countries that need semiconductors would all be affected, right? Yes, it could deliver a fatal blow to the countries in the anti-China camp in the Western world. They would face criticism, but it could still be a significant impact.

Therefore, from China's perspective, semiconductors are not that important in the Taiwan issue. What is truly important is the expansion into the Pacific. So, if a problem arises on the Korean Peninsula and China advances into the peninsula, people often talk about the possibility of taking over the Chongjin area. It's not about moving down to South Korea, but rather heading towards the East Sea. This is because it allows for access to the Pacific. Currently, it is very inconvenient for China to reach the Pacific because everything is blocked. The waters in front of China are completely blocked by South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Thus, it is very difficult to access the Pacific. However, if China were to gain control over Taiwan, it would be like acquiring an unsinkable aircraft carrier, a term that emerged after World War II.

The aircraft carrier, that's exactly Taiwan. If we place a naval base there and establish a public base, we can dominate the Pacific. Then, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia would all essentially have to bow down to China. The reason is that the United States is too far away; it's thousands of kilometers away, while China is right in front of us. So, which side do we need to get along with? It's quite obvious. Therefore, Taiwan's existence to China is essentially a matter of the Pacific; it holds much greater significance. Now, in the second half of the year, the world is still focusing on South Korea's key defense industry. The reason is that the most popular weapon is... the defense commercial stocks have dropped a bit recently, but they have surpassed 300,000 won.

So, will the defense industry and South Korea's stock market improve in the future? I believe it will continue to get better. The defense industry in our country was not a profitable business. It all started in the 1970s when President Park Chung-hee announced the heavy chemical investment policy, assigning major companies to various sectors. For example, Samsung was assigned to one area, while Lucky Goldstar was assigned to another, and they were all given specific fields to manage. Additionally, they were tasked with developing the defense industry, including the localization of weapons. However, these were all businesses that did not generate profit. This is because they only guaranteed the cost plus a minimal profit margin, and they were all domestic industries reliant on the Ministry of National Defense. If they succeeded in development, they would only cover the costs.

Plus, if there's a 3-4% failure rate, it just means it's a total loss. If development fails, it's a crazy business from the company's perspective. Nevertheless, the president took it on, and it was done for the country. That's how it turned out. So, it's a business that doesn't leave any profit. However, now it has started to become a profitable business. 

When exporting to foreign countries, it's not just a matter of cost plus a certain percentage, right? It's priced based on the market. It doesn't matter what the cost is; it's based on international pricing, or we might offer a discount off the international price. Still, we make a profit because our costs are low. The cost of production in our country is significantly cheaper compared to countries in Europe or the U.S. Our cost-effectiveness is good. Even with that, we still make a profit, which is why the defense industry has now become a profitable business. So, why is Korea now...

How did we become so successful in business? It's not just about cost-effectiveness. Of course, cost-effectiveness is important, but we also act quickly. We deliver on the dates they want. For example, other countries' defense companies, like the American ones such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing, or Germany's Rheinmetall, and many Swedish defense companies, as well as those in France, are all fully booked. If you place an order with them, you might get a response saying it will take about three to five years. However, Korea can say, We will deliver it in a few months. This is possible for Korea, and while I think the exact reasons for this might be state secrets, it means that we can provide what they need right away. But then...

Who are they? They are now most of the countries in the world. Suddenly, most countries are in a hurry, right? Wars keep breaking out. But what does it mean to receive weapons three years later? We need to strengthen our defense capabilities immediately to prevent wars. The country that can fulfill that need is South Korea. However, there is another country that can do this as well, and that is China. China can provide that. But why don't they buy Chinese weapons? Why do they buy South Korean weapons? It's not because of quality; it's due to geopolitical reasons. Why did Russia start the war? China is on Russia's side. They don't want to use Russian-made weapons, so where do they turn for weapons? The United States.

The standard NATO standards are the same as those of the United States and Western Europe. However, South Korea fundamentally follows those standards. Of course, in the 1990s, a significant amount of Russian technology came in, including in Korean weapons. But fundamentally, it adheres to the American standards. So, from the perspective of countries that are purchasing new weapons, especially Eastern European countries, the Philippines, and Southeast Asian countries, they are looking for alternatives to China. In that case, South Korea is the answer. This is why South Korea's defense industry is booming right now. However, there are limitations to the Korean defense industry. What are those limitations? The advanced weapons revealed in the current Ukraine war are unmanned weapons. These include drones and missiles, which do not require a person to operate them.

We are doing something, but most of the weapons we are good at are outdated, meaning they require direct human operation. Although they have been recently developed, the technology and operational methods are actually old. However, they are still necessary. On the other hand, there are advanced weapons being created by venture companies in Silicon Valley and Ukraine, which is our weakness and limitation. Recently, I read an article stating that a North Korean balloon had fallen in front of the presidential office. It seems that they are still sending these balloons. What is the reason behind this, and what is the possibility of war between South Korea and North Korea as we approach August 2024? I am not sure why they keep sending these balloons; there must be some significance to it. I read somewhere that balloons are being sent from South Korea to North Korea.

In North Korea, they cannot refer to it as a balloon; instead, they call it something like excrement. So, there are interpretations suggesting that they are sending excrement in return. We probably don't know what we are sending, so they say they cannot talk about the contents of what we send. They send daily necessities, dollars, and also a family tree of Kim Il-sung's bloodline. I find that quite fascinating. They also send the lineage of Kim Jong-un, and apparently, that is considered very critical. The reason is that Kim Jong-un is not the legitimate descendant of the Baekdu bloodline; his mother is a Zainichi Korean, meaning she is of Japanese descent, so they say that this lineage is not authentic. Although it is hard to believe, in any case, North Korea cannot disclose the contents of the balloons sent from South Korea and seems to refer to them with strange names.

In response to that, they say they will send waste, but can you tell me the details behind it? Regarding the possibility of war, I don't think Kim Jong-un will intentionally start a full-scale war. That would be insane because he would die too. To initiate a full-scale war, they would have to use nuclear weapons. North Korea's conventional weapons are so inadequate that they wouldn't stand a chance in a fight. Their weapons are no match, and even the physical strength of the people is not comparable. If you compare heights, there is already about a 30 cm difference between North and South Koreans, which shows the level of disparity. Therefore, a proper war is unlikely. They can't even feed their people, so they would have to use nuclear weapons, but if they do, the likelihood of them facing nuclear retaliation from the U.S. is very high. The U.S. would also have no choice but to use nuclear weapons in that case.

That's right, if you use nuclear weapons, you will receive nuclear retaliation. Yes, then it means death; that's the end of it. If one is in their right mind, they wouldn't do that. However, I believe there is a possibility of localized provocations. Fundamentally, there is an incentive for that. If a localized provocation occurs, they benefit while South Korea suffers. This is basically how South Korea's response mechanism is structured. As you know, it involves striking the origin point. Or retaliatory fire, what we do is called striking the origin point. The name sounds impressive, but what it means is that we intend to strike the location from which the artillery was fired. For example, if artillery was fired from somewhere in Hwanghae Province towards Yeonpyeong Island, or if it was fired from Hwanghae Province towards Seoul, we declare that we will strike the origin point.

Where is the target? It's the place where the artillery was fired. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, what does it matter if he gets hit once? If artillery is fired, what does it matter if he gets hit? There probably aren't many people there anyway. Even if a few soldiers die, what does it matter as long as he is safe? However, if we want to retaliate properly, we need to strike Pyongyang. But that's not a pinpoint strike; it's a full-scale attack. Even if we want to do that, we can't. We can't do it because the United States will intervene. The U.S. will prevent us from doing that. So, if a local war breaks out, the one who initiates it is at a disadvantage. Continuous incidents like the Cheonan sinking or bombings have shown that Pyongyang remains safe. And for example, if there is a situation where power transfer is being attempted, then...

Creating a war situation and instilling a sense of fear allows one to pursue their desired goals. If a war were to break out on the Korean Peninsula, what would happen to Northeast Asia? To prevent such a war, what does South Korea need the most? Some people say it’s the United States, while others insist that we must pursue nuclear capabilities. Personally, I don’t believe a full-scale war will occur. However, if a full-scale war were to break out on the Korean Peninsula, it would likely escalate into a world war. Would Russia remain passive? Putin would definitely intervene. If Putin intervenes, would China stay silent? China would respond even more aggressively because it cannot allow the Korean Peninsula to become Russian territory. The United States is not going to try to make the Korean Peninsula its territory, but Putin would want to make it part of Russia.

China will never allow that to happen. So, in a place called North Korea, the world's great powers will be competing fiercely over territory. Then, Japan will get involved, and South Korea will also enter the fray, leading to a world war. This will likely erupt in Taiwan as well, and there will be chaos throughout Southeast Asia. NATO and Eastern Europe will also be stirred up. However, I don't believe such events will occur on the Korean Peninsula. This is because neither China nor Kim Jong-un wants that to happen. Our country doesn't want it either, and while Putin might want it, he has his own incentives. It's not like Putin is the one starting the war; it's a problem between the two of us.

중국이 대만을 점령하면 한국, 일본은 정말 큰일난다 (김정호 교수)

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