중국 주식 시장 부동산, 반도체, 경제 전망

주식 시장 하락에도 불구하고 유진은 섹터의 회복력과 정부의 지원으로 중국에 투자를 시작했습니다.

### 중국 시장 인사이트 부동산, AI, 중국과 호주의 관계
* 🏠 중국의 부동산 가격은 하락세를 보이고 있으며 **제조업과 부동산 투자는 부진한 실적**을 보이고 있습니다. **주택 가격도 점차 하락**하고 있어 비관론이 커지고 있습니다.
* 💸 5월 중국 소매판매의 전년 대비 **3.2% 성장률**은 코로나19 이전 수준보다 낮다는 우려에도 불구하고, 시장에서는 중국 정부의 경기 부양책이 지속될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
* 🇨🇳 새로 임명된 중국 증권감독관리위원회 위원장 우싱은 **최근 어려움을 겪고 있는 중국 주식 시장에 대한 브리핑**을 진행할 예정입니다.
* 📉 중국 본토 주식 시장의 공매도는 2021년 9월 정점을 찍은 이후 **80% 감소**했지만, 공매도 잔액이 **336억 달러**에 달해 우려는 여전합니다.
* 🚗 중국은 유럽산 전기차 배터리에 관세를 부과할 계획을 발표했으며, **11월에 실제 시행 여부에 대한 투표**가 예정되어 있습니다.
* 🤖 중국 정부가 부동산에서 **반도체 및 AI와 같은 지원 분야**로 초점을 전환할 것이라는 추측이 있습니다.
* 🇦🇺 최근 중국과 호주 간의 관계가 해빙되고 있지만 **호주 정부는 신중한 입장**을 유지하고 있습니다.
* 📈 중국 투자자들은 중국의 부동산과 금융 시장이 밀접하게 연결되어 있으므로 **부동산 가격이 하락하더라도 지속적으로 성장할 수 있는 업종에 투자**하는 것을 고려해야 합니다.

Hello, everyone. This is Eugene, a quantifier of individual failures. Yes, hello, this is Sangji, a protractor. Today, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is falling, I started investing in China. Yes, I mentioned earlier that even though the stock market is

Because we didn't have the morning broadcast yesterday, we tend to forget a lot in a fairly short period of time. Oh, it's no joke. It's really unfortunate. There's a rumor that when going on a trip to Japan the next day, you didn't bring your passport. Is it true? Korea is a great country. I emphasize that again. When people come back from overseas, it's a relief to see them. Oh, you didn't bring your passport, but you can easily get a new one. Oh, the next trip is to Mongolia, right? Oh, you have to get a new passport again. You lost it, so you have to get a new one. Mr. Kim Dantae, who is going together, is our senior who is very helpful. We ask for your support. In the case of China, the situation continues to be unstable. Yes, some sectors have rebounded a bit as you make a comeback.

Still, it doesn't seem like all sectors are heading downhill now. Especially in Hong Kong, sectors such as big tech, real estate developers, and the biotech sector are still flowing steadily. For example, as I mentioned on yesterday's broadcast, even the composite index was on the verge of breaking 3,000 points. So, I think we need to take a look at the index first and talk about today's market. The composite index rose by about 0.5% today, rebounding to 3,030 points just before breaking 3,000 points. The rest of the numbers also showed a similar pattern, with increases of around 0.4% to 3%. However, the Hang Seng Tech Index continued to decline by 0.3%, breaking the 3,700-point mark. The HG Index also closed today at around 3,705 to 7,000 points, showing a slight consolidation.

Just yesterday, there are signs of a slight downturn again. The trading volume is about 0.7 seconds compared to the mainland's trading volume, so it will take some time for the market to recover. However, because the overall market is a bit weak, various rumors are circulating. Recently, short selling in the Chinese mainland stock market has surged again. Such stories are emerging, but the China Securities Regulatory Commission has clarified that these are groundless rumors. As of last Friday, Goldman Sachs reported that the short selling balance in the mainland China market is about 33.6 billion yuan, which is roughly equivalent to around 6 trillion won. The Chinese stock market is not significantly affected by this. In fact, short selling is not as active here as in Hong Kong, where it is more freely allowed.

Because of this, yes, short selling is not activated, but anyway, there is still a balance of about 33.6 billion won left, so this is the lowest in the recent four years. In September 2021, short selling in mainland China was likely at its highest, but compared to that time, it has decreased by 80%. Anyway, the Chinese securities regulator, um, the authorities in China made many efforts to support the Chinese stock market. The newly appointed savior is Wu Xing, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. He will make a briefing tomorrow regarding the Chinese stock market. There were some discussions about this. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the dollar is 7.27, and the onshore yuan exchange rate is 7.255. It is almost at its lowest point against the dollar. Last year, when the yuan was weakest, it was around 7.3. So, in the end, this is.

Given the situation until just before, various news has been coming out recently, such as the Euro and the Yen, causing a bit of a sharp decline. We need to continue to monitor how much the Chinese Yuan will hold up. Yes, it won't be easy, right? Yes, due to various factors, it's an inevitable situation that the Yuan moves in line with other currencies. Among the three countries of Korea, China, and Japan, the Yuan is relatively holding up well. Due to the managed currency system, it could be more stable. For example, I mentioned the economic indicators for China in May yesterday. I have some prepared data on that. If you could bring it up... Just a moment. Oh, yes, here it is. Yes, yes. Well, for now, it seems unclear. Uh, there were many people who couldn't see the answer to that. Especially, when it comes to May production...

The situation is a bit weaker than the market expected, and the manufacturing sector is somewhat sluggish. Real estate investment is also showing a negative trend with a continuous decline in the -10% range. Especially, real estate developers are now facing difficulties in selling properties. These factors continue to have a negative impact on the real estate market. Housing prices from metropolitan areas to third-tier cities are gradually declining each month, leading to a growing sense of pessimism. Compared to the previous month, it increased by 0.7%, which is the largest in the past decade. Articles have reported that there are no signs of prices going down. Yesterday, China's retail sales in May actually grew by about 3.2% compared to May last year, outperforming market expectations. Nevertheless, what...

There were some parts where they said it doesn't make sense that the growth rate is 3.2% now, when even before Corona, actual consumption always grew by more than 10% yy. It was mentioned that if consumer spending recovers, there may be concerns in the market that the Chinese government's stimulus may weaken. Personally, I strongly agree with this point. If China's economy recovers and inflation rises rapidly, I think there is a sufficient possibility that the Chinese government will promptly tighten the measures they have relaxed so far. However, I don't think it's time to worry about this yet. At least by the second half of this year, when the US raises interest rates and everyone laughs together, then it might be a concern.

I think it's okay to worry about it. Anyway, I think I need to check. Have you heard about the inflation outlook from President Lee Chang-yong today? Oh, I didn't hear about it. Yes, and in the morning, did you happen to see the article on housing prices on Economy Trading Economy? When you look at housing prices in Trading Economy, if you look at it in detail, they haven't dropped as much as you might think. Sorry to say this, but that's what it seems like. So, shall we take a look at that screen again since the Chinese market has closed? Normally, in recent times, it has been dropping consistently month over month or year over year, to a certain extent. That graph could show figures like 0.8, 1.6 decreasing gradually and then increasing to 2.4, 3.2, and now reaching around 4.0, nearly 3.9 points.

It dropped a lot, so it looks like it dropped a lot. If you look at this in a five-year perspective, it dropped a lot right now. The reference point is when the price rises from above 0 points. In this picture, you can see that the left side is where the price rose, and the right side is where the price is now falling. So, if you look at it in a longer term, the place where the house price dropped the most was on the left side in 2015. At that time, it dropped a lot, causing a huge uproar. After everything was released, if you look at the right side, you will see that the house prices are showing a 12% increase compared to the previous year, indicating an upward trend. Now, the current chaotic situation is actually the aftermath of that time. However, if you look at it now, it's falling, but it has only dropped for about 2 years. And of course, the width on the right side is larger than the width on the left side.

Because the price is dropping from a high state, the width is clearly large. Compared to the recent increase, it has only been two years, so I have some thoughts. Therefore, I need to think more about how to solve this and how to interpret it well. Actually, looking at the data released yesterday, I didn't think that the real estate prices and transactions in China would rebound significantly. Even looking at the data released until yesterday, I also think it might be a bit of a stretch. So, now I need to think a bit more about how I, as an investor, can make money through the Chinese financial market. It seems necessary to rethink the relationship between real estate and the Chinese financial market.

There have been parts that I have been mentioning to you until now. Just as the Chinese economy and stock market are, if there is no recovery in China's real estate, there is no way out. Now, Angdo-nim, you also always say that, right? But I found an article that can touch on these parts a bit, so I brought it. Hong Haowu, from the China hedge fund GrowIn Invest, wrote an article recently. It has very similar opinions to Angdo-nim's, so let me introduce it to you. According to Hong Haowu, the possibility of a bull market in China is possible even without a recovery in the real estate market. As real estate prices fall, the budget that can be spent in stores can increase, leading to an expansion of consumption. Of course, there may be many opposing views. What do you think? I'm not sure about the expansion of consumption happening, and the more prices fall, the more consumption expands. What does that mean for all new things?

Newcomers may think that way, but for those burdened with debt, it may not be the case. Ultimately, among the entire population, those holding debt related to real estate, how much of a percentage are they? Oh, those who are struggling with their livelihoods should be excluded first in the calculation. Those who live day by day, they should be excluded. The market always excludes those people. Then, among the rest, those who can afford to live, what is the ratio of their debt? Because now, the interest is money going out. No matter how much you lower the interest rate, if the interest money goes out, there is no money to spend. Consumption increases. As house prices fall, consumption increases. Oh, why is that? Because without the connection, it happens like that. Oh, since real estate doesn't work, I need to invest and go all in. That's what the Chinese government wants.

So, by doing that, now you would like to open up a new world with renewed energy. However, the statement itself is not wrong, but it is correct if the proportion of people doing real estate is high. So, what I don't understand is, how many people are currently doing real estate? So, yes, I understand what you're saying quite well, but there could be a strong counterargument that you are looking too far ahead just because of real estate. However, we don't know when the day will come when the real estate downturn will lead to an expansion of consumption, but anyway, if we think that day will come, then the current situation might be the biggest hurdle, isn't it? I'm not sure when that day will come, but I think that if we can overcome this hurdle well, that moment will surely come. So, at least for now, I'm not too absorbed in the Chinese real estate issue.

It is necessary to think a bit about leaving the stock market altogether, like researcher Ma Wo-i mentioned. Right now, it's difficult to say that China's real estate and financial markets are completely unrelated to the economy and will separate and go their own ways. Yes, it's hard to say that, but there will come a time when such a point could sufficiently arrive. You might need to consider this to some extent. Currently, the size of the stock market in the U.S. is much larger compared to GDP. The second country now is China, but the size of the stock market compared to GDP is not that big. However, as financial markets develop more, the size of the stock market and financial market relative to GDP will significantly increase. But looking at China's current behavior, it seems that's what they want. It's clear. So, it's right to grow it that way.

The problem is that the accident recovery is not going well right now, so pressing this button here is not responding properly. This side is breaking down now, like Japan did, and this real estate debt issue is increasing a lot. The United States, which always had problems, also did the same. Yes, that's why I introduced the article that Hong Ha mentioned. Anyway, there are people who think about this real estate and financial market economy in this way. In particular, in the case of Hong Hwa, in 2015, China had a bubble. They accurately predicted the drop from the peak of that bubble, and last year, with the corona in 2022, China suddenly reopened after the Party Congress in October, and the market showed a significant rebound. Even that rebound was a case where the prophecy was made.

Because it's based on analysis, well, of course, simply put, the article content came out a bit brief, so I'm introducing that part, but I think there could have been more thoughts from this person. So, in the end, if the percentage of people without homes is high, this statement is correct. Many people without homes are actually involved in real estate. In reality, when the price of assets falls, interest wanes. Interest arises when the price goes up. It's a special point. When the price drops, it's cheap, so should I buy it? If electric cars are cheap, should I buy one? It's like this. In the real estate and stock markets, assets with volatility. If they fall, it seems like they will continue to fall, so people lose interest. If they rise, it seems like they will continue to rise, so interest grows. Even if it's expensive, that's why there's clearly a difference. If there are many people who do not own real estate, the price of houses

If it drops, then for those who do not own real estate like me, I don't even think about owning a stake now. I want to do stocks. Since stocks seem to be good, if that's the case, it fits perfectly with this guy. I mentioned that investors should think more about sectors where my stocks can rise even if real estate prices in China and Korea fall. Recently, semiconductors surged yesterday, and today, the AI sector surged. So, China has done all the real estate stimulus it can for now. If you look at it now, almost all cities in China, except for Gwangju, have abolished loan-to-value ratios and mortgage rates, so additional stimulus measures will be introduced here.

The things that are not worth it are actually situations that are not correct, and I believe that rather than pushing for the Chinese government and real estate support next, what the Chinese government really wants to do next is perhaps support for semiconductors and AI. I have been mentioning these points continuously. However, in fact, yesterday it was about semiconductors, and today it's about real estate, AI. If you look at it, AI has risen a lot today, right? On a day like today, where the prices have risen a lot, it may seem a bit concerning to mention the sectors that have gone up on this show. Of course, I believe that investors or our subscribers will take it as a reference, but I think there is a need to be careful when talking about sectors that have surged on a day of sharp rise. We don't know if these sectors are at their peak right now.

As the market's interest grows, it is natural that volatility increases in proportion to that. So, as we return to the market today, we once again ask you to reconsider the nature of our broadcast and take a look at it again. Yes, yes. And now, regarding the electric vehicle tariffs, China has been hit hard by Europe. However, China is now starting to retaliate. There were news reports that anti-dumping investigations have begun on imports of European pork over the past year. China imported about $3.3 billion worth of pork from Europe, based on a standard of 4.5 trillion won. Researcher, I saw your report on this, but the anti-dumping investigation period has been extended from 1 year to a maximum of 6 months, totaling up to 1 year and 6 months. They have set a very long period for this. Regarding this, the Chinese government is also seeing an increase in pork prices domestically.

They are a little concerned about these things, and they want to continue the dialogue with Europe. Although they have made this announcement about the anti-dumping, they mentioned that these concerns are reflected in the content that has now been revealed. They notified the electric car battery tariff rate last week, which is scheduled to be implemented from July 4th. However, it is still a tentative conclusion, so the decision on whether to impose the actual tax will be voted on in November. This vote must pass to impose the tax. Therefore, the executive branch has recently become more cautious, even raising concerns in France. Regarding how to address these issues with China, it seems that more time is needed to consider it. I thought that more time should be given to observe this. Prime Minister Lee Chang is probably until today.

I heard that you are planning to visit Australia, but last year the education between Australia and China amounted to 1.5 trillion yuan, yes, 2 yuan. Now, this has increased by over 30% for the year 2019. Recently, the import of Australian wine to China has been increasing significantly, and Chinese people are visiting Australia a lot. Yes, Australia is the fifth most visited overseas destination by Chinese people. There were speculations that Australia would become closer to China when the Labor Party took over in 2022, but for now, they are keeping a distance from China for a bit longer. However, recently, there have been evaluations that Australia has started to reach out to China economically. Yes, it is known that China took the initiative in thawing the relationship between the two countries, but anyway, yes, there are assessments that the Australian government has started to hold hands with the hands that China is extending. Yes, according to China's official media Global Times, the relationship between China and Australia has finally returned to normal after many ups and downs. They fought a lot, they fought a lot, but now it's different.

Not only Australia, but now there are some talks about the possibility of improving relations with countries that have been somewhat desired, including Europe. In particular, there have been discussions about China changing its approach. In the past, China mainly pursued a strong diplomacy through hardline diplomacy, but it seems that this approach has been almost abandoned. Therefore, there are talks about China trying to seek reconciliation once again. The image of China until last year, which was quite confrontational, seems to be changing. Therefore, it would be good to take a closer look at how these things will affect the financial market. That's all for today's news. The market is a bit sluggish, and economic indicators are being announced somewhat ambiguously. As a result, investor sentiment is not greatly.

Okay, personally, I have been under a lot of stress in terms of profit defense since last May when the sun set, but this week, I personally found a lot of stability. I think I've gained some sense of the market and such rather than a sharp increase in profitability. Anyway, from the perspective of Chinese investors, even if it's the Chinese stock market, there are sectors that are marginalized, and even amidst increasing market volatility, there are sectors that show resilience. This is also a characteristic of the Chinese mainland. Yes, such sectors often experience cyclical selling. So, even in the face of a prevailing trend, please don't be too distressed. If you are interested in the Chinese stock market, I hope you can overcome difficulties with our Chinese closing angle TV along with the Chinese closing. That's all for today.

I will also greet Gakdogi tomorrow. Thank you. Bye.

[중국 주식시장] 어제는 반도체, 오늘은 AI, 내일은?!

증시각도기TV

중국 주식 시장 안정을 위한 우싱의 노력

주식 시장의 하락에도 불구하고 일부 업종, 특히 홍콩에서는 반등이 나타나고 있습니다.

중국 증권감독관리위원회는 공매도 급증에 대한 근거 없는 루머를 부인하며 주식 시장을 지원하기 위해 노력하고 있습니다.

위안화가 달러 대비 최저치를 기록한 가운데 새로 임명된 우싱 위원장이 중국 주식 시장에 대해 브리핑할 예정입니다.

중국 위안화 및 부동산 시장 현황

중국 위안화는 소폭 하락세를 보이고 있지만 관리 통화 시스템으로 인해 유로화나 엔화에 비해 상대적으로 안정적입니다.

중국의 부동산 시장은 대도시와 3선 도시의 주택 가격이 하락하는 등 부정적인 추세에 직면해 있으며 비관론이 커지고 있습니다.

그럼에도 불구하고 5월 소매 판매는 작년보다 3.

2% 증가하여 예상치를 상회했지만, 이러한 성장의 지속 가능성과 빠른 회복 및 인플레이션에 대응하기 위한 정부의 개입 가능성에 대한 우려가 있습니다.

부동산 가격이 중국 금융 시장에 미치는 영향

중국의 부동산 가격은 2015년에 크게 하락하여 큰 소동을 일으켰지만 지난 2년 동안 하락세를 보이고 있습니다.

중국 헤지펀드 GrowIn Invest의 홍하오우에 따르면 현재 하락 추세에도 불구하고 중국에서는 부동산 가격 하락에 따른 소비 확대로 이어져 강세장이 나타날 것이라는 예측이 나오고 있습니다.

하지만 부동산 부채가 중국인의 소비 증가 능력에 미치는 영향에 대한 의문이 제기되면서 이러한 예측은 회의론에 부딪히고 있으며, 궁극적으로 부동산 시장의 어려움 속에서도 투자를 장려하려는 중국 정부의 의지에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

중국의 부동산 및 금융 시장 규모는 GDP 대비 성장하고 있으며, 이는 경제에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

이러한 시장의 움직임은 자산 가격에 따라 사람들의 관심과 투자 결정에 영향을 미칩니다.

자산 가격의 변동은 부동산과 주식 시장에 대한 관심과 참여 수준에 영향을 미칩니다.

시장 분석 부동산, 반도체, AI, 중국-EU 무역 관계

중국의 부동산 부양책이 축소되면서 반도체와 AI 업종이 급등하고 있습니다.

하루 만에 급등한 업종은 정점이 불확실하기 때문에 논의에 대한 우려가 있습니다.

중국은 유럽산 돼지고기에 대한 반덤핑 조사 기간을 연장하며 유럽과의 대화에 신중을 기하고 있고, 전기차 배터리 관세 결정은 11월 표결까지 보류된 상태입니다.

호주와 중국 간의 교육 교류는 2019년에 30% 이상 크게 증가하여 1조 5천억 위안에 달했습니다.

호주는 중국산 와인 수입이 증가하고 있으며 중국인이 다섯 번째로 많이 방문하는 해외 여행지가 되었습니다.

호주와 중국이 경제적으로 손을 내밀기 시작하고 유럽과의 관계 개선에 대한 이야기가 나오면서 호주와 중국의 관계가 변화하고 있다는 추측이 나오고 있습니다.